A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

A participação popular na elaboração de políticas públicas de desenvolvimento local: um estudo no Município de Serrinha/RN (1997-2004)

The question of participation has been debated in Brazil since the 1980 decade in search a better way to take care of poulation s demand. More specificaly after the democratic open (1985) begins to be thought ways to make population participates of decisions related to alocation of public resources. The characteristic of participates actualy doesn t exist, population to be carried through is, at top, consulted, and the fact population participates stays restrict to some technics interests at the projects, mainly of public politics of local development. Observe that this implementation happens through a process and that has its limits (pass) that could be surpassed through strategies made to that. This dissertation shows results of a research about participative practices in city of Serrinha between 1997 and 2004, showing through a study of the case of Serrinha what was the process used to carry through these pratices in a moment and local considered model of this application. The analyses were developed through a model of research elaborated by the author based on large literature respects the ideal process to implant a participative public politics. The present research had a qualitative boarding, being explorative and descritive nature. The researcher (author of this dissertation) carried through all the research phases, including the transcriptions of interviews that were recorded with a digital voice recorder. Before the analysis of these data was verified that despite the public manager (former-mayor) had had a real interest in implant a process of local development in city, he was not able to forsee the correct process to do it. Two high faults were made. The first was the intention to have as tool a development plan, what locked up to make this plan was the booster of supossed participative pratice and no the ideal model that would be a plan generate by popular initiative. The second one was absence of a critical education project for the population that should be the fisrt step to carry through a politc like that

Evolução termocronológica do sistema de falhas Senador Pompeu-CE

The region of the Senador Pompeu Shear Zone (SPSZ), in the North Tectonic Domain of the Borborema Province (BP), has its recent history associated with to South Atlantic Ocean formation event at the Jurassic. A lot of geologics models have discussed about crustal axis elevation in local scale and large scale (Borborema Province), relative to importants regionals tectonics directions of it. The identification and the relationship among this surfaces, stepped in many topographyc levels by tectonics mecanisms, is dificult because of the erosion process on it. Over there, sedimentary deposits is complex and it has not biostratigraphyc record in continental deposits. The analysis metodology on apatita fission-track, in the region of the SPSZ, purpose the more knowledge about morphotectonics mecanisms of the area and the impruvement of its morphotectonics models. For this, it was moleled the age and thermal history of the 11 apatites samples collected on both sides of this shear zone, taking relationships among other results of the thermochronology studies in the BP. Based on the thermal studies in this search, the region of the BP developed on two distint cooling events, separated for one period of relative stabilited. The first episode occur between 130 and 90 M.y., has been began when the samples cross the 120°C isoterm for last time and fineshed at 70°C. The second moment of the cooling process was began about 30 M.y., when the temperature was 90°C, from this to the equlibrium with present surface temperature at 30°C. Some evidences indicated a relacionship between thermal episodes and uplift events of the regional relief. The fundaments of the interpretation was based mainly on comparatives studies among results of the thermochronology analysis and geologics studies about BP. Nóbrega et al.(2005), e.g., on studies about the Portalegre Shear Zone, got similar results on SPSZ, with some details relative to local tectonic activity. Morais Neto et al. (2000) interpreted two importants cooling events in the BP based on their regional studies, that can be associated to regional uplift events. When Assine (1992) studied the stratigraphyc sequences of the Araripe Basin, in the south of Ceará state, conclude that the abrupt return to continentals condictions from the last sedimentar sequency (albiano-cenomaniane) indicate a regional uplift of the NE region of the Brazil at the 100 M.y., in the Albiano Intermediate/Superior. This ages are compatible to termal model of the SPSZ. This two periods of the thermal history of the BP are completely registered in the apatites samples just one age groups of the fission-track, that it is the most ancient age groups. This one suggest it has happened in response to heating before 75 M.y and it has erased the last report of the first moment relief evolution of the BP. The NNE-SSW and E-W structure reativation can have created ideal condictions for heating and local elevations of the geothermal gradients. The equilibrium between the apatites temperatures of this groups and the regionais temperatures took place about 50 M.y., when the samples of the two ages groups had a simillar evolution to present surfaces temperatures

Spatial correlation between the composition of the clay fraction and contents of available phosphorus of an Oxisol at hillslope scale

Relief is regarded as the abiotic factor most strongly influencing pedogenic processes at a local scale. The spatial correlations between the composition of the clay fraction (iron - Fe and aluminum - Al oxides, kaolinite and organic matter - OM) and contents of available phosphorus (P) of an Oxisol were evaluated at hillslope scale under sugarcane cultivation. A total of 119 samples were collected at intersection points on a 100. ×. 100. m georeferenced grid of regularly spaced points 10. m apart in the 0.2-0.4. m depth in an area consisting of two landform components namely: component I (an area with a linear hillslope curvature), and component II (one with a concave-convex hillslope curvature). Soil OM and available P contents were subjected to descriptive statistics and geostatistical analyses in order to assess their variability and spatial dependence. All attributes studied were spatially dependent. Available phosphorus had positive spatial correlation with high crystalline goethite, hematite and gibbsite. Identifying small hillslope curvatures is useful with a view to better understanding their relationships with soil organic matter and available phosphorus, as well as kaolinite and Fe and Al oxide attributes. A simple correlation analysis by itself is inadequate to relate attributes, which requires a supplemental, geostatistical technique. © 2012 Elsevier B.V..

Local and regional ecological drivers of fish assemblages in Brazilian estuaries

Spatial patterns in assemblage structures are generated by ecological processes that occur on multiple scales. Identifying these processes is important for the prediction of impact, for restoration and for conservation of biodiversity. This study used a hierarchical sampling design to quantify variations in assemblage structures of Brazilian estuarine fish across 2 spatial scales and to reveal the ecological processes underlying the patterns observed. Eight areas separated by 0.7 to 25 km (local scale) were sampled in 5 estuaries separated by 970 to 6000 km (regional scale) along the coast, encompassing both tropical and subtropical regions. The assemblage structure varied significantly in terms of relative biomass and presence/absence of species on both scales, but the regional variation was greater than the local variation for either dataset. However, the 5 estuaries sampled segregated into 2 major groups largely congruent with the Brazilian and Argentinian biogeographic provinces. Three environmental variables (mean temperature of the coldest month, mangrove area and mean annual precipitation) and distance between estuaries explained 44.8 and 16.3%, respectively, of the regional-scale variability in the species relative biomass. At the local scale, the importance of environmental predictors for the spatial structure of the assemblages differed between estuarine systems. Overall, these results support the idea that on a regional scale, the composition of fish assemblages is simultaneously determined by environmental filters and species dispersal capacity, while on a local scale, the effect of environmental factors should vary depending on estuary-specific physical and hydrological characteristics © 2013 Inter-Research.

Orientação e ortorretificação de imagens terrestres nadirais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis Steindachner, 1879) spawning and nursery habitats: spatial-scale partitioning and multiscale relationships with thermohaline descriptors

We provide a detailed account of the spatial structure of the Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis) spawning and nursery habitats, using ichthyoplankton data from nine surveys (1976-1993) covering the Southeastern Brazilian Bight (SBB). The spatial variability of sardine eggs and larvae was partitioned into predefined spatial-scale classes (broad scale, 200-500 km; medium scale, 50-100 km; and local scale, <50 km). The relationship between density distributions at both developmental stages and environmental descriptors (temperature and salinity) was also explored within these spatial scales. Spatial distributions of sardine eggs were mostly structured on medium and local scales, while larvae were characterized by broad-and medium-scale distributions. Broad-and medium-scale surface temperatures were positively correlated with sardine densities, for both developmental stages. Correlations with salinity were predominantly negative and concentrated on a medium scale. Broad-scale structuring might be explained by mesoscale processes, such as pulsing upwelling events and Brazil Current meandering at the northern portion of the SBB, while medium-scale relationships may be associated with local estuarine outflows. The results indicate that processes favouring vertical stability might regulate the spatial extensions of suitable spawning and nursery habitats for the Brazilian sardine.

Wind forecasting over complex terrain

[EN]In this paper we introduce a new methodology for wind field forecasting over complex terrain. The idea is to use the predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model [1, 2]. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in [3]. The HARMONIE results (obtained with a maximum resolution about 1 Km) are refined in a local scale (about a few meters)...

Three-dimensional simulation of wind fields and air pollution over complex terrain

[EN]In this talk we introduce a new methodology for wind field simulation or forecasting over complex terrain. The idea is to use wind measurements or predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model [1,2]. The method has been recently implemented in the freely-available Wind3D code [3]. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in [4]. The results of HARMONIE (obtained with a maximum resolution about 1 Km) are refined by the finite element model in a local scale (about a few meters). An interface between both models is implemented such that the initial wind field approximation is obtained by a suitable interpolation of the HARMONIE results…

3-D wind field simulation over complex terrain

[EN]A new methodology for wind field simulation or forecasting over complex terrain is introduced. The idea is to use wind measurements or predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model. The method has been recently implemented in the freely-available Wind3D code. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in. HARMONIE provides wind prediction with a maximum resolution about 1 Km that is refined by the finite element model in a local scale (about a few meters). An interface between both models is implemented such that the initial wind field approximation is obtained by a suitable interpolation of the HARMONIE results…

Kinematics of the Sicily and Calabria Subduction System from Elastic Block Modeling of GPS Data

We use data from about 700 GPS stations in the EuroMediterranen region to investigate the present-day behavior of the the Calabrian subduction zone within the Mediterranean-scale plates kinematics and to perform local scale studies about the strain accumulation on active structures. We focus attenction on the Messina Straits and Crati Valley faults where GPS data show extentional velocity gradients of ∼3 mm/yr and ∼2 mm/yr, respectively. We use dislocation model and a non-linear constrained optimization algorithm to invert for fault geometric parameters and slip-rates and evaluate the associated uncertainties adopting a bootstrap approach. Our analysis suggest the presence of two partially locked normal faults. To investigate the impact of elastic strain contributes from other nearby active faults onto the observed velocity gradient we use a block modeling approach. Our models show that the inferred slip-rates on the two analyzed structures are strongly impacted by the assumed locking width of the Calabrian subduction thrust. In order to frame the observed local deformation features within the present- day central Mediterranean kinematics we realyze a statistical analysis testing the indipendent motion (w.r.t. the African and Eurasias plates) of the Adriatic, Cal- abrian and Sicilian blocks. Our preferred model confirms a microplate like behaviour for all the investigated blocks. Within these kinematic boundary conditions we fur- ther investigate the Calabrian Slab interface geometry using a combined approach of block modeling and χ2ν statistic. Almost no information is obtained using only the horizontal GPS velocities that prove to be a not sufficient dataset for a multi-parametric inversion approach. Trying to stronger constrain the slab geometry we estimate the predicted vertical velocities performing suites of forward models of elastic dislocations varying the fault locking depth. Comparison with the observed field suggest a maximum resolved locking depth of 25 km.

Aspetti di sostenibilità in agricoltura a diverse scale spaziali e temporali. Valutazioni ambientali, economiche ed energetiche.

La Tesi analizza le relazioni tra i processi di sviluppo agricolo e l’uso delle risorse naturali, in particolare di quelle energetiche, a livello internazionale (paesi in via di sviluppo e sviluppati), nazionale (Italia), regionale (Emilia Romagna) e aziendale, con lo scopo di valutare l’eco-efficienza dei processi di sviluppo agricolo, la sua evoluzione nel tempo e le principali dinamiche in relazione anche ai problemi di dipendenza dalle risorse fossili, della sicurezza alimentare, della sostituzione tra superfici agricole dedicate all’alimentazione umana ed animale. Per i due casi studio a livello macroeconomico è stata adottata la metodologia denominata “SUMMA” SUstainability Multi-method, multi-scale Assessment (Ulgiati et al., 2006), che integra una serie di categorie d’impatto dell’analisi del ciclo di vita, LCA, valutazioni costi-benefici e la prospettiva di analisi globale della contabilità emergetica. L’analisi su larga scala è stata ulteriormente arricchita da un caso studio sulla scala locale, di una fattoria produttrice di latte e di energia elettrica rinnovabile (fotovoltaico e biogas). Lo studio condotto mediante LCA e valutazione contingente ha valutato gli effetti ambientali, economici e sociali di scenari di riduzione della dipendenza dalle fonti fossili. I casi studio a livello macroeconomico dimostrano che, nonostante le politiche di supporto all’aumento di efficienza e a forme di produzione “verdi”, l’agricoltura a livello globale continua ad evolvere con un aumento della sua dipendenza dalle fonti energetiche fossili. I primi effetti delle politiche agricole comunitarie verso una maggiore sostenibilità sembrano tuttavia intravedersi per i Paesi Europei. Nel complesso la energy footprint si mantiene alta poiché la meccanizzazione continua dei processi agricoli deve necessariamente attingere da fonti energetiche sostitutive al lavoro umano. Le terre agricole diminuiscono nei paesi europei analizzati e in Italia aumentando i rischi d’insicurezza alimentare giacché la popolazione nazionale sta invece aumentando.

Parallel divergent adaptation along replicated altitudinal gradients in Alpine trout

Background The European trout (Salmo trutta species complex) occurs across a very wide altitudinal range from lowland rivers to alpine streams. Historically, the major European river systems contained different, evolutionarily distinct trout lineages, and some of this genetic diversity has persisted in spite of extensive human-mediated translocations. We used AFLP-based genome scans to investigate the extent of potentially adaptive divergence among major drainages and along altitudinal gradients replicated in several rivers. Results The proportion of loci showing evidence of divergent selection was larger between drainages than along altitudinal transects within drainages. This suggests divergent selection is stronger between drainages, or adaptive divergence is constrained by gene flow among populations within drainages, although the latter could not be confirmed at a more local scale. Still, altitudinal divergence occurred and, at approximately 2% of the markers, parallel changes of the AFLP band frequencies with altitude were observed suggesting that altitude may well be an important source of divergent selection within rivers. Conclusions Our results indicate that adaptive genetic divergence is common both between major European river systems and along altitudinal gradients within drainages. Alpine trout appear to be a promising model system to investigate the relative roles of divergent selection and gene flow in promoting or preventing adaptation to climate gradients.

TRENDS IN PARTICULATE MATTER AND MORTALITY: AN APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDING

We propose a method for diagnosing confounding bias under a model which links a spatially and temporally varying exposure and health outcome. We decompose the association into orthogonal components, corresponding to distinct spatial and temporal scales of variation. If the model fully controls for confounding, the exposure effect estimates should be equal at the different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the overall exposure effect estimate is a weighted average of the scale-specific exposure effect estimates. We use this approach to estimate the association between monthly averages of fine particles (PM2.5) over the preceding 12 months and monthly mortality rates in 113 U.S. counties from 2000-2002. We decompose the association between PM2.5 and mortality into two components: 1) the association between “national trends” in PM2.5 and mortality; and 2) the association between “local trends,” defined as county-specificdeviations from national trends. This second component provides evidence as to whether counties having steeper declines in PM2.5 also have steeper declines in mortality relative to their national trends. We find that the exposure effect estimates are different at these two spatio-temporalscales, which raises concerns about confounding bias. We believe that the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the national scale is more likely to be confounded than is the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the local scale. If the association at the national scale is set aside, there is little evidence of an association between 12-month exposure to PM2.5 and mortality.

Recruitment limitation constrains local species richness and productivity in dry grassland

Species coexistence and local-scale species richness are limited by the availability of seeds and microsites for germination and establishment. We conducted a seed addition experiment in seminatural grassland at three sites in southern Switzerland and repeated the experiment in two successive years to evaluate various circumstances under which seed limitation and establishment success affect community functioning. A collection of 144000 seeds of 22 meadow species including grasses and forbs of local provenance was gathered, and seeds were individually sown in a density that resembled natural seed rain. The three communities were seed limited. Three years after sowing, single species varied in emergence (0–50%), survival (0–69%), and establishment rates (0–27%). One annual and 13 perennial species reached reproductive stage. Low establishment at one site and reduced growth at another site indicated stronger microsite limitation compared to the third site. Recruitment was influenced by differences in abiotic environmental conditions between sites (water availability, soil minerals) and by within-site differences in biotic interaction (competition). At the least water-limited site, sowing resulted in an increase in phytomass due to establishment of short-lived perennials in the second and third years after sowing. This increase persisted over the following two years due to establishment of longer-lived perennials. After sowing in a wetter year with higher phytomass, however, productivity did not increase, because higher intensity of competition in an early phase of establishment resulted in less vigorous plants later on. Due to the generally favorable weather conditions during this study, sowing year had a small effect on numbers of established individuals over all species. Recruitment limitation can thus constrain local-scale species richness and productivity, either by a lack of seeds or by reduced seedling growth, likely due to competition from the established vegetation.