Multiple tree-ring proxies (earlywood width, latewood width and δ13C) from pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.), Hungary

The aim of this study was to analyse the effects of climatic factors (i.e. monthly mean temperature and total precipitation) on radial growth (earlywood width, latewood width, and total ringwidth) and on latewood stable carbon isotope composition in a pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L) stand in northeastern Hungary. Earlywood widths showed the weakest common variance and lack of statistically significant relationship to monthly precipitation and temperature. Latewood width showed the strongest common chronological signal. Correlation analysis with the monthly climate series pointed out the strongest positive/negative correlation with June precipitation for latewood width/stable carbon isotope ratio. These parameters shared the strongest climatic response also for seasonal scale since the highest correlation coefficients, 0.49 and -0.62 for latewood width and stable carbon isotope ratio, respectively, were obtained for both with a 10-month precipitation total (from previous November to current August of the growing season). A combined parameter, derived as difference between latewood width and stable carbon isotope indices showed improved statistical relationship compared to the hydroclimatic calibration target both for local and regional spatial scales. Spatial correlation analysis indicated that the hydroclimatic signal encoded in these moisture sensitive tree-ring parameters from Bakta Forest is expected to be representative for the northeastern Carpathians and for the large part of the Great Hungarian Plain. In addition, the hydroclimatic signal of latewood width chronology was compared to three independent records. Results showed that neither the strength nor the rank of the similarity of the local hydroclimate signals were stable throughout the past two centuries. Future palaeo(hydro)climatological efforts targeting the Carpathian(-Balkan) region are recommended to track carefully the spatial domains for which a given, local, proxy-derived hydroclimate reconstruction might provide useful information.

Territory Occupancy and Parental Quality as Proxies for Spatial Prioritization of Conservation Areas

In order to maximize their fitness, individuals aim at choosing territories offering the most appropriate combination of resources. As population size fluctuates in time, the frequency of breeding territory occupancy reflects territory quality. We investigated the relationships between the frequency of territory occupancy (2002–2009) vs. habitat characteristics, prey abundance, reproductive success and parental traits in hoopoes Upupa epops L., with the objective to define proxies for the delineation of conservation priority areas. We predicted that the distribution of phenotypes is despotic and sought for phenotypic characteristics expressing dominance. Our findings support the hypothesis of a despotic distribution. Territory selection was non-random: frequently occupied territories were settled earlier in the season and yielded higher annual reproductive success, but the frequency of territory occupancy could not be related to any habitat characteristics. Males found in frequently occupied territories showed traits expressing dominance (i.e. larger body size and mass, and older age). In contrast, morphological traits of females were not related to the frequency of territory occupancy, suggesting that territory selection and maintenance were essentially a male's task. Settlement time in spring, reproductive success achieved in a given territory, as well as phenotypic traits and age of male territory holders reflected territory quality, providing good proxies for assessing priority areas for conservation management.

Delegation Proxies: The Power of Propagation

Scoping behavioral variations to dynamic extents is useful to support non-functional requirements that otherwise result in cross-cutting code. Unfortunately, such variations are difficult to achieve with traditional reflection or aspects. We show that with a modification of dynamic proxies, called delegation proxies, it becomes possible to reflectively implement variations that propagate to all objects accessed in the dynamic extent of a message send. We demonstrate our approach with examples of variations scoped to dynamic extents that help simplify code related to safety, reliability, and monitoring.

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

US Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Market Liquidity Hypothesis and Autonomous Credit Risk

This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors. willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors. autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.

Liquidity Constraint and Child Labor In India: Is Market Really Incapable Of Eradicating It From Wage-Labor Households?

One way to measure the lower steady state equilibrium outcome in human capital development is the incidence of child labor in most of the developing countries. With the help of Indian household level data in an overlapping generation framework, we show that production loans under credit rationing are not optimally extended towards firms because of issues with adverse selection. More stringent rationing in the credit market creates a distortion in the labor market by increasing adult wage rate and the demand for child labor. Lower availability of funds under stringent rationing coupled with increased demand for loans induces the high risk firms to replace adult labor by child labor. A switch of regime from credit rationing to revelation regime can clear such imperfections in the labor market. The equilibrium higher wage rate elevates the household consumption to a significantly higher level than the subsistence under credit rationing and therefore higher level of human capital development is assured leading to no supply of child labor.

Organic temperature proxies in the subpolat region around Iceland

Subpolar regions are key areas to study natural climate variability, due to their high sensitivity to rapid environmental changes, particularly through sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Here, we have tested three independent organic temperature proxies (UK'37, TEX86 and LDI) on their potential applicability for SST reconstruction in the subpolar region around Iceland. UK'37, TEX86 and TEXL86 temperature estimates from suspended particulate matter showed a substantial discrepancy with instrumental data, while long chain alkyl diols were below detection limit in most of the stations. In the northern Iceland Basin, sedimenting particles revealed a seasonality in lipid fluxes i.e. high fluxes of alkenones and GDGTs were measured during late spring-summer, and high fluxes of long chain alkyl diols during late summer. The flux-weighted average temperature estimates had a significant negative (ca. 2.3°C for UK'37) and positive (up to 5°C for TEX86) offset with satellite-derived SSTs and temperature estimates derived from the underlying surface sediment. UK'37 temperature estimates from surface sediments around Iceland correlate well with summer mean sea surface temperatures, while TEX86 derived temperatures correspond with both annual and winter mean 0-200 m temperatures, suggesting a subsurface temperature signal. Anomalous LDI-SST values in surface sediments, and low mass flux of 1,13- and 1,15-diols compared to 1,14-diols, suggest that Proboscia diatoms are the major sources of long chain alkyl diols in this area rather than eustigmatophyte algae, and therefore the LDI cannot be applied in this region.

Rock-magnetic proxies from a sediment profile of Aike Lake

The sedimentary archive from Laguna Potrok Aike is the only continuous record reaching back to the last Glacial period in continental southeastern Patagonia. Located in the path of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and in the source region of dust deposited in Antarctica during Glacial periods, southern Patagonia is a vantage point to reconstruct past changes in aeolian activity. Here we use high-resolution rock-magnetic and physical grain size data from site 2 of the International Continental scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) Potrok Aike maar lake Sediment Archive Drilling prOject (PASADO) in order to develop magnetic proxies of dust and wind intensity at 52°S since 51,200 cal BP. Rock-magnetic analysis indicate the magnetic mineral assemblage is dominated by detrital magnetite. Based on the estimated flux of magnetite to the lake and comparison with distal dust records from the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, kLF is interpreted as a dust indicator in the dust source of southern Patagonia at the millennial time scale, when ferrimagnetic grain size and coercivity influence is minimal. Comparison to physical grain-size data indicates that the median destructive field of isothermal remanent magnetisation (MDFIRM) mostly reflects medium to coarse magnetite bearing silts typically transported by winds for short-term suspension. Comparison with wind-intensity proxies from the Southern Hemisphere during the last Glacial period and with regional records from Patagonia since the last deglaciation including marine, lacustrine and peat bog sediments as well as speleothems reveals similar variability with MDFIRM up to the centennial time scale. MDFIRM is interpreted as a wind-intensity proxy independent of moisture changes for southeastern Patagonia, with stronger winds capable of transporting coarser magnetite bearing silts to the lake.

Biomarker proxies on sediment cores in the central Arctic Ocean

Although the permanently to seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean is a unique and sensitive component in the Earth's climate system, the knowledge of its long-term climate history remains very limited due to the restricted number of pre-Quaternary sedimentary records. During Polarstern Expedition PS87/2014, we discovered multiple submarine landslides over a distance of >350 km along Lomonosov Ridge. Removal of younger sediments from steep headwalls has led to exhumation of Miocene to early Quaternary sediments close to the seafloor, allowing the retrieval of such old sediments with gravity cores. Multi-proxy biomarker analyses of these gravity cores reveal for the first time that the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean was relatively warm (4-7°C) and ice-free during summer, whereas sea ice occurred during spring and autumn/winter. A comparison of our proxy data with Miocene climate simulations seems to favour relatively high late Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These new findings from the Arctic region provide new benchmarks for groundtruthing global climate reconstructions and modeling.

Climate proxies in sediment core MD95-2010

High-amplitude, rapid climate fluctuations are common features of glacial times. The prominent changes in air temperature recorded in the Greenland ice cores (Dansgaard et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/339532a0; Grootes et al., 1993 doi:10.1038/366552a0) are coherent with shifts in the magnitude of the northward heat flux carried by the North Atlantic surface ocean (Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Bond and Lotti, 1995, doi:10.1126/science.267.5200.1005); changes in the ocean's thermohaline circulation are a key component in many explanations of this climate flickering (Broecker, 1997, doi:10.1126/science.278.5343.1582). Here we use stable-isotope and other sedimentological data to reveal specific oceanic reorganizations during these rapid climate-change events. Deep water was generated more or less continuously in the Nordic Seas during the latter part of the last glacial period (60 to 10 thousand years ago), but by two different mechanisms. The deep-water formation occurred by convection in the open ocean during warmer periods (interstadials). But during colder phases (stadials), a freshening of the surface ocean reduced or stopped open-ocean convection, and deep-water formation was instead driven by brine-release during sea-ice freezing. These shifting magnitudes and modes nested within the overall continuity of deep-water formation were probably important for the structuring and rapidity of the prevailing climate changes.

Comparison of TEX86 and UK'37 temperature proxies in sinking particles in the Cariaco Basin

The Cariaco Basin, a silled, permanently anoxic basin on the continental shelf of Venezuela with a dynamic chemocline (-240-350 m), has been subject of > 20 years of oceanographic observation and sediment trap studies. We evaluated UK'37 and the TEX86 temperature proxies using sinking particles collected in shallow sediment trap samples at 275 m (Trap A) and 455 m (Trap B) (within and below the chemocline). The organic geochemical temperature proxies, UK'37. (based on coccolithophorid alkenone lipids) and TEX86 (based on archaeal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids), use observed relationships between the ratio of specific lipids and measured sea surface temperature to hindcast past sea surface temperatures. In this study, both UK'37 and TEX86 temperature proxies record seasonal temperature variations, including the cooling associated with upwelling events. UK'37-based temperatures are colder than measured sea surface temperatures, and better correlated temperature at the chlorophyll maximum. In sediment trap material collected below the chemocline (Trap B), UK'37 values are higher than those in Trap A. Warmer subchemocline UK'37 based temperatures may be related to autooxidation of sinking particles, either by small amounts of available oxygen or by alternate electron acceptors concentrated in the biologically dynamic chemocline (e.g. intermediate sulfur compounds). The absolute flux weighted TEX86 temperature values measured in sinking particles from Trap A match the measured SST well. The differences in the TEX86 values between Traps A and B are small and reflect less impact of degradation. Overall, the TEX86 temperatures in sinking particles in the Cariaco Basin reflect annual SST.

Temperature proxies of sediment cores from the Sea of Marmara

Reconstructing ocean temperature values is a major target in paleoceanography and climate research. However, most temperature proxies are organism-based and thus suffer from an "ecological bias". Multiproxy approaches can potentially overcome this bias but typically require more investment in time and resources, while being susceptible to errors induced by sample preparation steps necessary before analysis. Three lipid-based temperature proxies are widely used: UK'37 (based on long chain alkenones from phytoplanktonic haptophytes), TEX86 [based on glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) from pelagic archaea] and LDI (based on long chain diols from phytoplanktonic eustigmatophytes). So far, separate analytical methods, including gas chromatography (GC) and liquid chromatography (LC), have been used to determine these proxies. Here we present a sensitive method for determining all three in a single normal phase high performance LC-atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry (NP-HPLC-APCI-MS) analysis. Each of the long chain alkenones and long chain diols was separated and unambiguously identified from the accurate masses and characteristic fragmentation during multiple stage MS analysis (MS2). Comparison of conventional GC and HPLC-MS methods showed similar results for UK'37 and LDI, respectively, using diverse environmental samples and an Emiliania huxleyi culture. Including the three sea surface temperature (SST) proxies; the NP-HPLC-APCI-MS method in fact allows simultaneous determination of nine paleoenvironmental proxies. The extent to which the ecology of the source organisms (ecological bias) influences lipid composition and thereby the reconstructed temperature values was demonstrated by applying the new method to a sediment core from the Sea of Marmara, covering the last 21 kyr BP. Reconstructed SST values differed considerably between the proxies for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the period of Sapropel S1 formation at ca. 10 kyr BP, whereas the trends during the late Holocene were similar. Changes in the composition of alkenone-producing species at the transition from the LGM to the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) were inferred from unreasonably high UK'37-derived SST values (ca. 20 °C) during the LGM. We ascribe discrepancies between the reconstructed temperature records during S1 deposition to habitat change, e.g. a different depth due to changes in nutrient availability.