Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

Antiulcerogenic Activity of the Essential Oil of Baccharis dracunculifolia on Different Experimental Models in Rats

Baccharis dracunculifolia DC (Asteraceae), a native plant from Brazil, commonly known as `Alecrim-do-campo` is widely used in folk medicine to treat inflammation, hepatic disorders and stomach ulcers, and it is the most important botanical source of Southeastern Brazilian propolis, known as green propolis. Its essential oil is composed of non-oxygenated and oxygenated terpenes. In this work, the effects of the essential oil obtained from the aerial parts of R dracunculifolia on gastric ulcers were evaluated. The antiulcer assays were undertaken using the following protocols in rats: nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID)-induced ulcer, ethanol-induced ulcer, stress-induced ulcer, and determination of gastric secretion using ligated pylorus. The treatment in the doses of 50, 250 and 500 mg/kg of R dracunculifolia essential oil significantly diminished the lesion index, the total lesion area and the percentage of lesions in comparison with both positive and negative control groups. With regard to the model of gastric secretion a reduction of gastric juice volume and total acidity was observed, as well as an increase in the gastric pH. No sign of toxicity was observed in the acute toxicity study. Considering the results, it is suggested that the essential oil of B. dracunculifolia could probably be a good therapeutic agent for the development of new phytotherapeutic medicine for the treatment of gastric ulcer. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interaction between Normative Systems and Cognitive Agents in Temporal Modal Defeasible Logic

While some recent frameworks on cognitive agents addressed the combination of mental attitudes with deontic concepts, they commonly ignore the representation of time. An exception is [1]that manages also some temporal aspects both with respect to cognition and normative provisions. We propose in this paper an extension of the logic presented in [1]with temporal intervals.

Mathematical models in percutaneous absorption

A number of mathematical models have been used to describe percutaneous absorption kinetics. In general, most of these models have used either diffusion-based or compartmental equations. The object of any mathematical model is to a) be able to represent the processes associated with absorption accurately, b) be able to describe/summarize experimental data with parametric equations or moments, and c) predict kinetics under varying conditions. However, in describing the processes involved, some developed models often suffer from being of too complex a form to be practically useful. In this chapter, we attempt to approach the issue of mathematical modeling in percutaneous absorption from four perspectives. These are to a) describe simple practical models, b) provide an overview of the more complex models, c) summarize some of the more important/useful models used to date, and d) examine sonic practical applications of the models. The range of processes involved in percutaneous absorption and considered in developing the mathematical models in this chapter is shown in Fig. 1. We initially address in vitro skin diffusion models and consider a) constant donor concentration and receptor conditions, b) the corresponding flux, donor, skin, and receptor amount-time profiles for solutions, and c) amount- and flux-time profiles when the donor phase is removed. More complex issues, such as finite-volume donor phase, finite-volume receptor phase, the presence of an efflux. rate constant at the membrane-receptor interphase, and two-layer diffusion, are then considered. We then look at specific models and issues concerned with a) release from topical products, b) use of compartmental models as alternatives to diffusion models, c) concentration-dependent absorption, d) modeling of skin metabolism, e) role of solute-skin-vehicle interactions, f) effects of vehicle loss, a) shunt transport, and h) in vivo diffusion, compartmental, physiological, and deconvolution models. We conclude by examining topics such as a) deep tissue penetration, b) pharmacodynamics, c) iontophoresis, d) sonophoresis, and e) pitfalls in modeling.

LGI1 mutations in temporal lobe epilepsies

Background and Objectives: A number of familial temporal lobe epilepsies (TLE) have been recently recognized. Mutations in LGI1 (leucine-rich, glioma-inactivated 1 gene) have been found in a few families with the syndrome of autosomal dominant partial epilepsy with auditory features (ADPEAF). The authors aimed to determine the spectrum of TLE phenotypes with LGI1 mutations, to study the frequency of mutations in ADPEAF, and to examine the role of LGI1 paralogs in ADPEAF without LGI1 mutations. Methods: The authors performed a clinical and molecular analysis on 75 pedigrees comprising 54 with a variety of familial epilepsies associated with TLE and 21 sporadic TLE cases. All were studied for mutations in LGI1. ADPEAF families negative for LGI1 mutations were screened for mutations in LGI2, LGI3, and LGI4. Results: Four families had ADPEAF, 22 had mesial TLE, 11 had TLE with febrile seizures, two had TLE with developmental abnormalities, and 15 had various other TLE syndromes. LGI1 mutations were found in two of four ADPEAF families, but in none of the other 50 families nor in the 21 individuals with sporadic TLE. The mutations were novel missense mutations in exons 1 (c. 124T --> G; C42G) and 8 (c. 1418C --> T; S473L). No mutations in LGI2, LGI3, or LGI4 were found in the other two ADPEAF families. Conclusion: In TLE, mutations in LGI1 are specific for ADPEAF but do not occur in all families. ADPEAF is genetically heterogeneous, but mutations in LGI2, LGI3, or LGI4 did not account for families without LGI1 mutations.

Semantic memory impairment in temporal lobe epilepsy associated with hippociampal sclerosis

Episodic memory impairment is a well-recognized feature of mesial temporal lobe epilepsy. Semantic memory has received much less attention in this patient population. In this study, semantic memory aspects (word-picture matching, word definition, confrontation and responsive naming, and word list generation) in 19 patients with left and right temporal lobe epilepsy secondary to mesial temporal sclerosis (MTS) were compared with those of normal controls. Patients with LMTS showed impaired performance in word definition (compared to controls and RMTS) and in responsive naming (compared to controls). RMTS and LMTS patients performed worse than controls in word-picture matching. Both patients with left and right mesial temporal lobe epilepsy performed worse than controls in word list generation and in confrontation naming tests. Attentional-executive dysfunction may have contributed to these deficits. We conclude that patients with left and right NITS display impaired aspects of semantic knowledge. A better understanding of semantic processing difficulties in these patients will provide better insight into the difficulties with activities of daily living in this patient population. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics

This paper offers a defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics. Particular attention is given to Cramer's transactional account, which is shown to have the threefold virtue of solving the Bell problem, explaining the complex conjugate aspect of the quantum mechanical formalism, and explaining various quantum mysteries such as Schrodinger's cat. The question is therefore asked, why has this model not received more attention from physicists and philosophers? One objection given by physicists in assessing Cramer's theory was that it is not testable. This paper seeks to answer this concern by utilizing an argument that backwards causation models entail a fork theory of causal direction. From the backwards causation model together with the fork theory one can deduce empirical predictions. Finally, the objection that this strategy is questionable because of its appeal to philosophy is deflected.

Studies of RET gene expression and acetylcholinesterase activity in a series of sporadic Hirschsprung`s disease

The purpose is to present the studies of RET gene expression and acetylcholinesterase activity in 23 patients operated for Hirschsprung`s disease (HD). The patients underwent either transanal endorectal pull-through or Duhamell`s procedure. Full-thickness intestinal samples from the three different segments (ganglionic, intermediate and aganglionic) were collected. Each tissue sample was divided in two portions, one for AChE histochemical staining and the other for examination of RET mRNA expression level. All patients had an uneventful postoperative recovery. In all patients, the AChE stainings demonstrated the absence of activity in the ganglionic area, the marked increase of positive fibers in the aganglionic area, and little increase of positive fibers in the intermediate area. In the ganglionic and intermediate areas, all patients (100%) showed significant RET gene expression. In the aganglionic area, 18 patients (78.3%) did not present gene expression and the other five patients (21.7%) presented gene expression that was similar to the ganglionic and intermediate areas. The results reinforce the conclusion that the method of AChE staining is effective for the diagnosis of intestinal aganglionosis and confirm the knowledge that genes beyond RET may be implicated in the genesis of sporadic cases of HD.

Do psychiatric comorbidities predict postoperative seizure outcome in temporal lobe epilepsy surgery?

Clinical and demographic presurgical variables may be associated with unfavorable postsurgical neurological outcome in patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy with hippocampal sclerosis (MTLE-HS). However, few reports include preoperative psychiatric disorders as a factor predictive of long-term post-surgical MTLE-HS neurological Outcome. We used Engel`s criteria to follow 186 postsurgical patients with MTLE-HS for an average of 6 years. DSM-IV criteria and psychiatric comorbidity criteria specific to epilepsy (interictal dysphoric disorder, postictal and interictal psychosis) were used to assess presurgical psychiatric disorders. Kaplan-Meier event-free Survival and adjusted hazard ratios were estimated with unconditional logistic regression. Seventy-seven (41.4%) patients had a preoperative Axis I psychiatric diagnosis. Thirty-six patients had depression, I I interictal dysphoric disorder, 14 interictal psychosis, 6 postictal psychosis, and 10 anxiety disorders. Twenty-three (12.4%) patients had Axis 11 personality disorders. Regarding seizure outcome, preoperative anxiety disorders (P = 0.009) and personality disorders (P = 0.003) were positively Correlated with Engel class I B (remaining auras) or higher. These findings emphasize the importance of presurgical psychiatric evaluation, counseling, and Postsurgical follow-up of patients with epilepsy and psychiatric disorders. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An investigation into the interference rejection capability of a linear array in a wireless communications system

The suitable use of an array antenna at the base station of a wireless communications system can result in improvement in the signal-to-interference ratio (SIR). In general, the SIR is a function of the direction of arrival of the desired signal and depends on the configuration of the array, the number of elements, and their spacing. In this paper, we consider a uniform linear array antenna and study the effect of varying the number of its elements and inter-element spacing on the SIR performance. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.