Formação do preço da energia convencional nas transações entre agentes no mercado de curto prazo brasileiro.

Hoje no mercado brasileiro de eletricidade, o preço da energia convencional é composto pela soma do valor do Preço de Liquidação das Diferenças (PLD) divulgado pela Câmara de Comercialização de Energia Elétrica (CCEE) semanalmente com o valor do Spread negociado bilateralmente no mercado à vista (mercado de curto prazo), resultante do equilíbrio entre oferta e demanda. Em alguns momentos, o valor do Spread chega a representar mais de 100% do custo total da energia. Este trabalho faz uma análise do mercado brasileiro, bem como, de alguns mercados no exterior de energia elétrica e destaca os pontos que tem influência direta, na formação do Spread da energia convencional e como isso afeta a decisão de contratação dos agentes. Além disso, o trabalho busca encontrar correlações entre dados divulgados, como carga e oferta de energia, com o ágio negociado no mercado de curto prazo, buscando entender o real impacto de cada um desses fatores e explicar as grandes variações já observadas. Sugere-se também um modelo de regressão linear múltipla para a projeção de valores do ágio. Para tanto, foram utilizadas informações proveniente de um banco de dados de cotações de negócios efetivamente realizados no curto prazo desde janeiro de 2011 até julho de 2014, bem como informações retiradas da CCEE e Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS).

Abolishing Oil Indexation in Gas Contracts: Is it the cure-all? CEPS Commentaries, 3 March 2014

Recently, the EU energy debate has been dominated by the discussion on energy prices and the competitiveness of the European industry. According to the latest estimates of the International Energy Agency, gas prices in the US are one-quarter of those in Europe. Moreover, prices of imported gas vary across the EU member states. Some EU policy-makers hope that the completion of the internal energy market and the transition to hub-based pricing will solve these discrepancies. Julian Wieczorkiewicz asks in this Commentary whether the abolition of oil-indexation will constitute a cure-all for the above-mentioned problems.

German companies strengthen their cooperation with Russian gas suppliers. OSW Commentary No. 64, 2011-10-24

Germany’s decision to give up the use of nuclear energy will force it to find a conventional low-carbon energy source as a replacement; in the short term, in addition to coal, this is likely to be gas. Due to their continued high debt and the losses associated with the end of atomic power, German companies will not be able to spend large funds on investing in conventional energy. First of all, they will aim to raise capital and repay their debts. The money for this will come from selling off their less profitable assets; this will include sales on the gas market. This will create opportunities for natural gas exporters and extraction companies such as Gazprom to buy back some of the German companies’ assets (electricity companies, for example). The German companies will probably continue to seek to recover the costs incurred in the investment projects already underway, such as Nord Stream, the importance of which will grow after Russian gas imports increase. At the same time, because of their debts, the German companies will seek to minimise their investment costs by selling some shares on the conventional energy market, to Russian corporations among others; the latter would thus be able to increase their stake in the gas market in both Western (Germany, Great Britain, the Benelux countries) and Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic). It is possible that while establishing the details of cooperation between the Russian and German companies, Russia will try to put pressure on Germany to give up competing projects such as Nabucco. However, a well-diversified German energy market should be able to defend itself against attempts to increase German dependence on Russian gas supplies and the dictates of high prices.

Energising the TTIP: Political economy of the trade policy rationale. Paper No. 9 in the CEPS-CTR project “TTIP in the Balance’’and CEPS Special Report No. 113/July 2015

Despite accounting for a significant share of global trade and the resulting interdependencies from it, energy governance remains largely fragmented and there is no global framework or agreement defining the rules of energy trade. This paper, after presenting the main global and regional energy market developments, discusses the opportunities to ‘energise the TTIP’, i.e. to include a chapter dedicated to trade and cooperation in the sphere of energy. The shale revolution in the US, the ever-rising interconnectedness of energy markets (recently proven by the disappearance of the ‘Asian gas premium’) and the EU’s quest to diversify its energy supplies generally sets favourable conditions to reinforce energy relations between the EU and the US. The question, as is often the case, is whether there is sufficient political will to tighten relations in a strategic sphere with connotations for national security and sovereignty.

Rethinking the security of the European Union’s gas supply. Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2016/01 January 2016

Highlights: • The security of the European Union’s gas supplies is crucial to ensuring that supplies to households are not disrupted in freezing winters, that industry can flourish and that the EU cannot be blackmailed in vital foreign policy questions. • Gas supply security should be addressed at EU level because a joint solution would be cheaper, national approaches could undermine the internal energy market and have adverse effects on other countries, and the EU Treaty explicitly calls for energy solidarity. • The current focus on supply diversification and reduction of dependence on imported gas is expensive and does not constitute a systemic response. • Instead of doing everything to reduce gas supplies from key suppliers, gas supply security could more effectively be safeguarded by ensuring that unused alternatives are maintained so that they can be tapped into for an indefinite period in case of supply disruption from a key supplier.This Policy Contribution outlines a market approach that could safeguard gas supply security at very low cost.

Variational inference for Student-t MLP models

This paper presents a novel methodology to infer parameters of probabilistic models whose output noise is a Student-t distribution. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to nonlinear multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). We used an EM algorithm combined with variational approximation, the evidence procedure, and an optimisation algorithm. The technique was tested on two regression applications. The first one is a synthetic dataset and the second is gas forward contract prices data from the UK energy market. The results showed that forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using Student-t noise models.

Developing a decision framework for the strategic sourcing of biomass

The deployment of bioenergy technologies is a key part of UK and European renewable energy policy. A key barrier to the deployment of bioenergy technologies is the management of biomass supply chains including the evaluation of suppliers and the contracting of biomass. In the undeveloped biomass for energy market buyers of biomass are faced with three major challenges during the development of new bioenergy projects. What characteristics will a certain supply of biomass have, how to evaluate biomass suppliers and which suppliers to contract with in order to provide a portfolio of suppliers that best satisfies the needs of the project and its stakeholder group whilst also satisfying crisp and non-crisp technological constraints. The problem description is taken from the situation faced by the industrial partner in this research, Express Energy Ltd. This research tackles these three areas separately then combines them to form a decision framework to assist biomass buyers with the strategic sourcing of biomass. The BioSS framework. The BioSS framework consists of three modes which mirror the development stages of bioenergy projects. BioSS.2 mode for early stage development, BioSS.3 mode for financial close stage and BioSS.Op for the operational phase of the project. BioSS is formed of a fuels library, a supplier evaluation module and an order allocation module, a Monte-Carlo analysis module is also included to evaluate the accuracy of the recommended portfolios. In each mode BioSS can recommend which suppliers should be contracted with and how much material should be purchased from each. The recommended blend should have chemical characteristics within the technological constraints of the conversion technology and also best satisfy the stakeholder group. The fuels library is made up from a wide variety of sources and contains around 100 unique descriptions of potential biomass sources that a developer may encounter. The library takes a wide data collection approach and has the aim of allowing for estimates to be made of biomass characteristics without expensive and time consuming testing. The supplier evaluation part of BioSS uses a QFD-AHP method to give importance weightings to 27 different evaluating criteria. The evaluating criteria have been compiled from interviews with stakeholders and policy and position documents and the weightings have been assigned using a mixture of workshops and expert interview. The weighted importance scores allow potential suppliers to better tailor their business offering and provides a robust framework for decision makers to better understand the requirements of the bioenergy project stakeholder groups. The order allocation part of BioSS uses a chance-constrained programming approach to assign orders of material between potential suppliers based on the chemical characteristics of those suppliers and the preference score of those suppliers. The optimisation program finds the portfolio of orders to allocate to suppliers to give the highest performance portfolio in the eyes of the stakeholder group whilst also complying with technological constraints. The technological constraints can be breached if the decision maker requires by setting the constraint as a chance-constraint. This allows a wider range of biomass sources to be procured and allows a greater overall performance to be realised than considering crisp constraints or using deterministic programming approaches. BioSS is demonstrated against two scenarios faced by UK bioenergy developers. The first is a large scale combustion power project, the second a small scale gasification project. The Bioss is applied in each mode for both scenarios and is shown to adapt the solution to the stakeholder group importance and the different constraints of the different conversion technologies whilst finding a globally optimal portfolio for stakeholder satisfaction.

Out of Challenge, Opportunity: Central America's Electric Sector & Key Issues and Recommendations for Enhanced Regional Electric Integration

Taken together, the six nations of Central America count a population of roughly 40 million people and an energy market equal in size to that of Colombia, sufficient to benefit from economies of scale. The region has traditionally been a net importer of hydrocarbons, and hydroelectricity has dominated electric generation. But more recently, thermoelectric generation (diesel and fuel oil) has greatly increased as a percentage of the regional generation market. Progress has been made across the region’s electric sector, beginning with reforms in the 1990s and the 1996 signing of a regional treaty aimed at the development of a regional energy integration project – the Central American Electrical Interconnection System, or SIEPAC. A fundamental SIEPAC goal is to set up a regional electric market and a regulatory system. Indeed, after many years of development, SIEPAC is poised to open a new chapter in Central America’s electric infrastructure and market. But this new era must contend with critical issues such as the need to consolidate the regional electric market, political issues surrounding the venture, and security concerns. Moreover, local conflicts, in different degrees, have become priorities for policymakers, and these are possible barriers to completing the project. The goals of the SIEPAC project and of deepening the broader electric integration process are possible if national and regional decision makers understand that cooperative decision making will produce better results than separate national decision making. Enhanced regional understanding and cooperative decision making, combined with an effort to reorient the terminology and dialogue vis-à-vis energy efficiency in Central America, form the core recommendations of this paper.

The European Union Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: The Limitations of the Opening towards the East

This article intends to study the evolution of the European Union foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus and Central Area throughout the Post-Cold War era. The aim is to analyze Brussels’ fundamental interests and limitations in the area, the strategies it has implemented in the last few years, and the extent to which the EU has been able to undermine the regional hegemons’ traditional supremacy. As will be highlighted, the Community’s chronic weaknesses, the local determination to preserve sovereignty and an increasing international geopolitical competition undermine any European aspiration to become a pre-eminent actor at the heart of the Eurasian continent in the near future.

A novel methodology for analysis of large scale interconnected power and gas systems

The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

Os Estados Unidos da América e a Revolução do Shale

Ao longo dos últimos anos, tem-se verificado grandes mudanças no mercado energético global, sendo os Estados Unidos da América um dos grandes protagonistas. A presente investigação tem como principal objetivo compreender e clarificar o conceito de independência energética/auto-suficiência energética e averiguar a possibilidade e o alcance deste propósito por parte dos Estados Unidos da América, desde a Revolução do Shale. Ao longo desta investigação haverá oportunidade de estudar as políticas energéticas assumidas durante aproximadamente os últimos 40 anos, obter informações sobre a segurança energética dos Estados Unidos, bem como formas de exploração energética americana, política para exportação de energia e impactos geopolíticos. Facilmente se observa ao longo deste trabalho que a auto-suficência não pode ser vista numa perspetiva de criação de condições para o isolacionismo americano mas sim numa perspetiva de instrumentalização e proteção dos seus aliados.

Società a partecipazione pubblica nel mercato dell'energia elettrica tra concorrenza e obblighi di servizio pubblico

La disciplina pubblicistica dell’energia elettrica presenta specificità rilevanti rispetto ad altri settori della regolazione economica. Il settore energetico si caratterizza infatti per una complessa regolazione, dovuta sia alle specificità dell’oggetto della disciplina, cioè l’energia elettrica come bene immateriale, sia alla molteplicità degli interessi pubblici coinvolti, che si innestano su fallimenti di mercato (i.e. il sistema a rete non duplicabile), sia agli obiettivi di politica internazionale e di sicurezza nazionale, che intercettano delicate interrelazioni con l’ambiente e il clima, come tutelati nel Green Deal, nelle normative europee e nazionali e negli accordi internazionali sulla decarbonizzazione e sullo sviluppo sostenibile. Inoltre, la filiera elettrica è “verticalmente integrata”, cioè suddivisa in attività diverse, cioè la produzione, il dispacciamento, la trasmissione, la distribuzione, la vendita all’ingrosso e al dettaglio di energia. Queste sono esercitate in regimi di mercato differenti: monopolio naturale (dovuto al carattere sub-additivo dei costi) per il dispacciamento, la trasmissione e la distribuzione di energia; libera concorrenza per la produzione e la vendita. L’esigenza di assicurare la concorrenza nel mercato energetico si contempera con la necessità di rispettare gli obblighi di servizio pubblico, in un delicato bilanciamento tra esigenze contrapposte. La Direttiva U.E. del 13 luglio 2009 n. 2009/72/Cee, all’art. 3, qualifica infatti la fornitura di energia elettrica come un servizio universale, attribuendo agli utenti il diritto di ricevere la fornitura e di mantenere prezzi ragionevoli, facilmente e chiaramente comparabili, trasparenti e non discriminatori.

Boosting microbial fuel cell performance by combining with an external supercapacitor

Microbial Fuel Cells (MFC) technology finds space as a promising technology as a green alternative power-generating device, by the possibility to convert organic matter directly into electricity by microbially catalysed reactions, especially for the potential of the simultaneous treatment of wastewaters. Despite the studies that were carried out over the decades, MFCs still provide insufficient power and current densities in order to be commercially attractive in the energy market. Scientific community today pursues two main strategies in order to increase the overall performance output of the MFC. The first is to support the cells with an external supercapacitor (SC), which is able to accept and deliver charge much faster than normal capacitors, thanks to the use of an electrostatic double-layer capacitance, in combination with pseudocapacitance. The second is to implement directly the SC into the MFC, by using carbon electrodes with high surface area, similar to the SC. Both strategies are eventually supported by the use of charge boosters, respect to the application of the MFC. Galvanostatic measures for the MFC and SCs are performed at different currents, alone and by integration of both devices. The SCs used have a capacitance respectively of 1F, 3F and 6F. Subsequently, a stack of MFCs is assembled and paired to a 3F SC, in order to power an ambient diffuser, able to spray at intervals with a can and a controller. In conclusion, the use of a SC in parallel to the MFCs increases the overall performance of the system. The SC remove the discharge current limit of the MFC and increases the energy and power delivered by the system, allowing it to power for a certain time the ambient diffuser successfully. The key factor highlighted by the final experiment was the insufficient charging time of the SC, resulting finally in a voltage that is inadequate to power the device. Further studies are therefore necessary to improve the performance of the MFCs.

Energy and ancillary services joint market simulation

In order to develop a flexible simulator, a variety of models for Ancillary Services (AS) negotiation has been implemented in MASCEM – a multi-agent system competitive electricity markets simulator. In some of these models, the energy and the AS are addressed simultaneously while in other models they are addressed separately. This paper presents an energy and ancillary services joint market simulation. This paper proposes a deterministic approach for solving the energy and ancillary services joint market. A case study based on the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve, and Non-Spinning Reserve services is used to demonstrate that the use of the developed methodology is suitable for solving this kind of optimization problem. The presented case study is based on CAISO real AS market data considers fifteen bids.

Smart Grid Market Using Joint Energy and Ancillary Services Bids

The power systems operation in the smart grid context increases significantly the complexity of their management. New approaches for ancillary services procurement are essential to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. These approaches should include market mechanisms which allow the participation of small and medium distributed energy resources players in a competitive market environment. In this paper, an energy and ancillary services joint market model used by an aggregator is proposed, considering bids of several types of distributed energy resources. In order to improve economic efficiency in the market, ancillary services cascading market mechanism is also considered in the model. The proposed model is included in MASCEM – a multi-agent system electricity market simulator. A case study considering a distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources is presented.