Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

Tax-Optimal Step-Up and Imperfect Loss Offset

In the field of mergers and acquisitions, German and international tax law allow for several opportunities to step up a firm's assets, i.e., to revaluate the assets at fair market values. When a step-up is performed the taxpayer recognizes a taxable gain, but also obtains tax benefits in the form of higher future depreciation allowances associated with stepping up the tax base of the assets. This tax-planning problem is well known in taxation literature and can also be applied to firm valuation in the presence of taxation. However, the known models usually assume a perfect loss offset. If this assumption is abandoned, the depreciation allowances may lose value as they become tax effective at a later point in time, or even never if there are not enough cash flows to be offset against. This aspect is especiallyrelevant if future cash flows are assumed to be uncertain. This paper shows that a step-up may be disadvantageous or a firm overvalued if these aspects are not integrated into the basic calculus. Compared to the standard approach, assets should be stepped up only in a few cases and - under specific conditions - at a later point in time. Firm values may be considerably lower under imperfect loss offset.

Personality factors in elementary school children: Contributions to academic performance over and above executive functions?

Unique contributions of Big Five personality factors to academic performance in young elementary school children were explored. Extraversion and Openness (labeled “Culture” in our study) uniquely contributed to academic performance, over and above the contribution of executive functions in first and second grade children (N = 446). Well established associations between Conscientiousness and academic performance, however, could only be replicated with regard to zero-order correlations. Executive functions (inhibition, updating, and shifting), for their part, proved to be powerful predictors of academic performance. Results were to some extent dependent on the criterion with which academic performance was measured: Both personality factors had stronger effects on grades than on standardized achievement tests, whereas the opposite was true for executive functions. Finally, analyses on gender differences revealed that Extraversion and Openness/Culture played a more dominant role in girls than in boys, but only regarding grades.

Cosmogenic production rates and recoil loss effects in micrometeorites and interplanetary dust particles

We present a purely physical model to determine cosmogenic production rates for noble gases and radionuclides in micrometeorites (MMs) and interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) by solar cosmic-rays (SCR) and galactic cosmic-rays (GCR) fully considering recoil loss effects. Our model is based on various nuclear model codes to calculate recoil cross sections, recoil ranges, and finally the percentages of the cosmogenic nuclides that are lost as a function of grain size, chemical composition of the grain, and the spectral distribution of the projectiles. The main advantage of our new model compared with earlier approaches is that we consider the entire SCR particle spectrum up to 240 MeV and not only single energy points. Recoil losses for GCR-produced nuclides are assumed to be equal to recoil losses for SCR-produced nuclides. Combining the model predictions with Poynting-Robertson orbital lifetimes, we calculate cosmic-ray exposure ages for recently studied MMs, cosmic spherules, and IDPs. The ages for MMs and the cosmic-spherule are in the range <2.2–233 Ma, which corresponds, according to the Poynting-Robertson drag, to orbital distances in the range 4.0–34 AU. For two IDPs, we determine exposure ages of longer than 900 Ma, which corresponds to orbital distances larger than 150 AU. The orbital distance in the range 4–6 AU for one MM and the cosmic spherule indicate an origin either in the asteroid belt or release from comets coming either from the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud. Three of the studied MMs have orbital distances in the range 23–34 AU, clearly indicating a cometary origin, either from short-period comets from the Kuiper Belt or from the Oort Cloud. The two IDPs have orbital distances of more than 150 AU, indicating an origin from Oort Cloud comets.

Cytomegalovirus Serology and Replication Remain Associated With Solid Organ Graft Rejection and Graft Loss in the Era of Prophylactic Treatment

BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) replication has been associated with more risk for solid organ graft rejection. We wondered whether this association still holds when patients at risk receive prophylactic treatment for CMV. METHODS We correlated CMV infection, biopsy-proven graft rejection, and graft loss in 1,414 patients receiving heart (n=97), kidney (n=917), liver (n=237), or lung (n=163) allografts reported to the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study. RESULTS Recipients of all organs were at an increased risk for biopsy-proven graft rejection within 4 weeks after detection of CMV replication (hazard ratio [HR] after heart transplantation, 2.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-4.94, P<0.001; HR after kidney transplantation, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.16-2.16, P=0.02; HR after liver transplantation, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.53-3.17, P<0.001; HR after lung transplantation, 5.83; 95% CI, 3.12-10.9, P<0.001. Relative hazards were comparable in patients with asymptomatic or symptomatic CMV infection. The CMV donor or recipient serological constellation also predicted the incidence of graft rejection after liver and lung transplantation, with significantly higher rates of rejection in transplants in which donor or recipient were CMV seropositive (non-D-/R-), compared with D- transplant or R- transplant (HR, 3.05; P=0.002 for liver and HR, 2.42; P=0.01 for lung transplants). Finally, graft loss occurred more frequently in non-D- or non-R- compared with D- transplant or R- transplant in all organs analyzed. Valganciclovir prophylactic treatment seemed to delay, but not prevent, graft loss in non-D- or non-R- transplants. CONCLUSION Cytomegalovirus replication and donor or recipient seroconstellation remains associated with graft rejection and graft loss in the era of prophylactic CMV treatment.

The effects of anti-infective preventive measures on the occurrence of biologic implant complications and implant loss: a systematic review.

PURPOSE To systematically appraise whether anti-infective protocols are effective in preventing biologic implant complications and implant loss after a mean observation period ≥ 10 years after loading. MATERIALS AND METHODS An electronic search of Medline via PubMed and Embase via Ovid databases complemented by manual search was conducted up to October 31, 2012. Studies were included provided that they were published in English, German, French, or Italian, and conducted on ≥ 20 partially and fully edentulous patients with dental implants and regular (≥ 1×/year) supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) over a mean observation period ≥ 10 years. Assessment of the identified studies and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Authors were contacted if required. Collected data were reported by descriptive methods. RESULTS The initial electronic search resulted in the identification of 994 titles from Medline via PubMed and 531 titles from Embase via Ovid databases, respectively. After elimination of duplicate titles and exclusion of 60 full-text articles, 143 articles were analyzed, resulting in 15 studies eligible for qualitative analysis. The implant survival rate ranged from 85.7% to 99.2% after a mean observation period ≥ 10 years. One comparative study assessed the effects of regular SPT on the occurrence of biologic complications and implant loss. Overall, regular diagnosis and implementation of anti-infective therapeutic protocols were effective in the management of biological complications and prevention of implant loss. Residual probing depths at the end of active periodontal therapy and development of reinfection during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) represented a significant risk for the onset of peri-implantitis and implant loss. Comparative studies indicated that implant survival and success rates were lower in periodontally compromised vs noncompromised patients. CONCLUSIONS In order to achieve high long-term survival and success rates of dental implants and their restorations, enrollment in regular SPT including anti-infective preventive measures should be implemented. Therapy of peri-implant mucositis should be considered as a preventive measure for the onset of peri-implantitis. Completion of active periodontal therapy should precede implant placement in periodontally compromised patients.

A mouse model of HIES reveals pro- and anti-inflammatory functions of STAT3.

Mutations of STAT3 underlie the autosomal dominant form of hyperimmunoglobulin E syndrome (HIES). STAT3 has critical roles in immune cells and thus, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), might be a reasonable therapeutic strategy in this disease. However, STAT3 also has critical functions in nonhematopoietic cells and dissecting the protean roles of STAT3 is limited by the lethality associated with germline deletion of Stat3. Thus, predicting the efficacy of HSCT for HIES is difficult. To begin to dissect the importance of STAT3 in hematopoietic and nonhematopoietic cells as it relates to HIES, we generated a mouse model of this disease. We found that these transgenic mice recapitulate multiple aspects of HIES, including elevated serum IgE and failure to generate Th17 cells. We found that these mice were susceptible to bacterial infection that was partially corrected by HSCT using wild-type bone marrow, emphasizing the role played by the epithelium in the pathophysiology of HIES.

The calculation of Afρ and mass loss rate for comets

Ab initio calculations of Afρ are presented using Mie scattering theory and a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) dust outflow model in support of the Rosetta mission and its target 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (CG). These calculations are performed for particle sizes ranging from 0.010 μm to 1.0 cm. The present status of our knowledge of various differential particle size distributions is reviewed and a variety of particle size distributions is used to explore their effect on Afρ , and the dust mass production View the MathML sourcem˙. A new simple two parameter particle size distribution that curtails the effect of particles below 1 μm is developed. The contributions of all particle sizes are summed to get a resulting overall Afρ. The resultant Afρ could not easily be predicted a priori and turned out to be considerably more constraining regarding the mass loss rate than expected. It is found that a proper calculation of Afρ combined with a good Afρ measurement can constrain the dust/gas ratio in the coma of comets as well as other methods presently available. Phase curves of Afρ versus scattering angle are calculated and produce good agreement with observational data. The major conclusions of our calculations are: – The original definition of A in Afρ is problematical and Afρ should be: qsca(n,λ)×p(g)×f×ρqsca(n,λ)×p(g)×f×ρ. Nevertheless, we keep the present nomenclature of Afρ as a measured quantity for an ensemble of coma particles.– The ratio between Afρ and the dust mass loss rate View the MathML sourcem˙ is dominated by the particle size distribution. – For most particle size distributions presently in use, small particles in the range from 0.10 to 1.0 μm contribute a large fraction to Afρ. – Simplifying the calculation of Afρ by considering only large particles and approximating qsca does not represent a realistic model. Mie scattering theory or if necessary, more complex scattering calculations must be used. – For the commonly used particle size distribution, dn/da ∼ a−3.5 to a−4, there is a natural cut off in Afρ contribution for both small and large particles. – The scattering phase function must be taken into account for each particle size; otherwise the contribution of large particles can be over-estimated by a factor of 10. – Using an imaginary index of refraction of i = 0.10 does not produce sufficient backscattering to match observational data. – A mixture of dark particles with i ⩾ 0.10 and brighter silicate particles with i ⩽ 0.04 matches the observed phase curves quite well. – Using current observational constraints, we find the dust/gas mass-production ratio of CG at 1.3 AU is confined to a range of 0.03–0.5 with a reasonably likely value around 0.1.

Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Accurate rainfall data are the key input parameter for modelling river discharge and soil loss. Remote areas of Ethiopia often lack adequate precipitation data and where these data are available, there might be substantial temporal or spatial gaps. To counter this challenge, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) readily provides weather data for any geographic location on earth between 1979 and 2014. This study assesses the applicability of CFSR weather data to three watersheds in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. To this end, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up to simulate discharge and soil loss, using CFSR and conventional weather data, in three small-scale watersheds ranging from 112 to 477 ha. Calibrated simulation results were compared to observed river discharge and observed soil loss over a period of 32 years. The conventional weather data resulted in very good discharge outputs for all three watersheds, while the CFSR weather data resulted in unsatisfactory discharge outputs for all of the three gauging stations. Soil loss simulation with conventional weather inputs yielded satisfactory outputs for two of three watersheds, while the CFSR weather input resulted in three unsatisfactory results. Overall, the simulations with the conventional data resulted in far better results for discharge and soil loss than simulations with CFSR data. The simulations with CFSR data were unable to adequately represent the specific regional climate for the three watersheds, performing even worse in climatic areas with two rainy seasons. Hence, CFSR data should not be used lightly in remote areas with no conventional weather data where no prior analysis is possible.

Fruit and vegetable dietary patterns and weight loss in Mexican-American women

Although dietary patterns and their association with health outcomes is not a new topic, they have not been widely studied in Mexican-American populations. There are no studies of fruit and vegetable dietary patterns related to weight loss in Mexican-American women. This study aims to examine whether a change in proportion of fruit and vegetable consumption results in a change in weight. A secondary data analysis of 208 overweight or obese Mexican-American women from the Unidos en Salud weight loss intervention study was performed to investigate this relationship. Through regression analysis, the change in weight for every unit change in proportion of fruits and vegetables was tested with appropriate adjustment for age. The results showed a significant inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake densities and weight change. These results support previous studies and provide a possible effective and efficient method to reduce body mass index (BMI) among overweight or obese Mexican-American women. ^

Exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and weight loss and hospitalization in non-small cell lung cancer patients

Background. Cancer cachexia is a common syndrome complex in cancer, occurring in nearly 80% of patients with advanced cancer and responsible for at least 20% of all cancer deaths. Cachexia is due to increased resting energy expenditure, increased production of inflammatory mediators, and changes in lipid and protein metabolism. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), by virtue of their anti-inflammatory properties, are possibly protective against cancer-related cachexia. Since cachexia is also associated with increased hospitalizations, this outcome may also show improvement with NSAID exposure. ^ Design. In this retrospective study, computerized records from 700 non-small cell lung cancer patients (NSCLC) were reviewed, and 487 (69.57%) were included in the final analyses. Exclusion criteria were severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, significant peripheral edema, class III or IV congestive heart failure, liver failure, other reasons for weight loss, or use of research or anabolic medications. Information on medication history, body weight and hospitalizations was collected from one year pre-diagnosis until three years post-diagnosis. Exposure to NSAIDs was defined if a patient had a history of being treated with NSAIDs for at least 50% of any given year in the observation period. We used t-test and chi-square tests for statistical analyses. ^ Results. Neither the proportion of patients with cachexia (p=0.27) nor the number of hospitalizations (p=0.74) differed among those with a history of NSAID use (n=92) and those without (n=395). ^ Conclusions. In this study, NSAID exposure was not significantly associated with weight loss or hospital admissions in patients with NSCLC. Further studies may be needed to confirm these observations.^

Tissue metal concentrations and metal transfer functions of Glaucous Gulls (Larus hyperboreus) from Bjørnøya and Jan Mayen

Heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn) concentrations were determined in different tissues (muscle, kidney, liver, brain, gonads, heart and feathers) of Glaucous Gulls (Larus hyperboreus) from Bjornoya and Jan Mayen. The age and spatial dependent variations in heavy metals were quantified and interpreted in view of the three chemometric techniques, i.e. non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test, redundancy gradient analysis and detrended correspondence analysis. The Glaucous Gulls from Bjornoya contained significantly higher (p < 0.05) levels of Cd, Cu and Zn than those inhabited Jan Mayen. Adult birds were characterized by greater (p < 0.01) concentration of muscle, hepatic and renal heavy metals in comparison to chicks. Insignificantly higher slope constant Zn/Cd for the liver than for the kidney may reflect insignificant Cd exposure. Estimate of transfer factor (TF) allows us to assess variations in heavy metal concentrations during the individual development of Glaucous Gulls. It may be stated that there is a distinct increase of bioaccumulation of all the studied metals during subsequent stages of the bird life.