The seasonal phenology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Queensland

Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous fruit fly, originally endemic to tropical and subtropical coastal eastern Australia, but now also widely distributed in temperate eastern Australia. In temperate parts of its range, B. tryoni populations show distinct seasonal peaks driven by changing seasonal climates, especially changing temperature. In contrast to temperate areas, the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni in subtropical and tropical parts of its range is poorly documented and the role of climate unknown. Using a large, historical (1940s and 1950s) fruit fly trapping data set, we present the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni at nine sites across Queensland for multiple (two to seven) years per site. We correlate monthly trap data for each site with monthly weather averages (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) to investigate climatic influences. We also correlate observed population data with predicted population data generated by an existing B. tryoni population model. Supporting predictions from climate driven models, B. tryoni did show year-round breeding at most Queensland sites. However, contrary to predictions, there was a common pattern of a significant population decline in autumn and winter, followed by a rapid population increase in August and then one or more distinct peaks of abundance in spring and summer. Mean monthly fly abundance was significantly different across sites, but was not correlated with altitudinal, latitudinal or longitudinal gradients. There were very few significant correlations between monthly fly population size and weather variables for eight of the nine sites. For the southern site of Gatton fly population abundance was correlated with temperature. Results suggest that while climate factors may be influencing B. tryoni populations in southern subtropical Queensland, they appear to be having only minor or no influence in northern sub-tropical and tropical Queensland. In the discussion we focus on the role of other factors, particularly larval host plant availability, as likely drivers of B. tryoni abundance in tropical and subtropical parts of its range.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Hot Summers and Heart Failure: Seasonal Variations in Morbidity and Mortality in Australian Heart Failure Patients (1994-2005)

Background There are minimal reports of seasonal variations in chronic heart failure (CHF)-related morbidity and mortality beyond the northern hemisphere. Aims and methods We examined potential seasonal variations with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality over more than a decade in a cohort of 2961 patients with CHF from a tertiary referral hospital in South Australia subject to mild winters and hot summers. Results Seasonal variation across all event-types was observed. CHF-related morbidity peaked in winter (July) and was lowest in summer (February): 70 (95% CI: 65 to 76) vs. 33 (95% CI: 30 to 37) admissions/1000 at risk (p<0.005). All-cause admissions (113 (95% CI: 107 to 120) vs. 73 (95% CI 68 to 79) admissions/1000 at risk, p<0.001) and concurrent respiratory disease (21% vs. 12%,p<0.001) were consistently higher in winter. 2010 patients died, mortality was highest in August relative to February: 23 (95% CI: 20 to 27) vs. 12 (95% CI: 10 to 15) deaths per 1000 at risk, p<0.001. Those aged 75 years or older were most at risk of seasonal variations in morbidity and mortality. Conclusion Seasonal variations in CHF-related morbidity and mortality occur in the hot climate of South Australia, suggesting that relative (rather than absolute) changes in temperature drive this global phenomenon.

The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

The role of the multiple banded antigen of ureaplasma parvum in intra-amniotic infection : major virulence factor or decoy?

The multiple banded antigen (MBA) is a predicted virulence factor of Ureaplasma species. Antigenic variation of the MBA is a potential mechanism by which ureaplasmas avoid immune recognition and cause chronic infections of the upper genital tract of pregnant women. We tested whether the MBA is involved in the pathogenesis of intra-amniotic infection and chorioamnionitis by injecting virulent or avirulent-derived ureaplasma clones (expressing single MBA variants) into the amniotic fluid of pregnant sheep. At 55 days of gestation pregnant ewes (n = 20) received intra-amniotic injections of virulent-derived or avirulent-derived U. parvum serovar 6 strains (2×104 CFU), or 10B medium (n = 5). Amniotic fluid was collected every two weeks post-infection and fetal tissues were collected at the time of surgical delivery of the fetus (140 days of gestation). Whilst chronic colonisation was established in the amniotic fluid of animals infected with avirulent-derived and virulent-derived ureaplasmas, the severity of chorioamnionitis and fetal inflammation was not different between these groups (p>0.05). MBA size variants (32–170 kDa) were generated in vivo in amniotic fluid samples from both the avirulent and virulent groups, whereas in vitro antibody selection experiments led to the emergence of MBA-negative escape variants in both strains. Anti-ureaplasma IgG antibodies were detected in the maternal serum of animals from the avirulent (40%) and virulent (55%) groups, and these antibodies correlated with increased IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-8 expression in chorioamnion tissue (p<0.05). We demonstrate that ureaplasmas are capable of MBA phase variation in vitro; however, ureaplasmas undergo MBA size variation in vivo, to potentially prevent eradication by the immune response. Size variation of the MBA did not correlate with the severity of chorioamnionitis. Nonetheless, the correlation between a maternal humoral response and the expression of chorioamnion cytokines is a novel finding. This host response may be important in the pathogenesis of inflammation-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Design of fixed order robust power oscillation damper for TCSC

This paper illustrates robust fixed order power oscillation damper design for mitigating power systems oscillations. From implementation and tuning point of view, such low and fixed structure is common practice for most practical applications, including power systems. However, conventional techniques of optimal and robust control theory cannot handle the constraint of fixed-order as it is, in general, impossible to ensure a target closed-loop transfer function by a controller of any given order. This paper deals with the problem of synthesizing or designing a feedback controller of dynamic order for a linear time-invariant plant for a fixed plant, as well as for an uncertain family of plants containing parameter uncertainty, so that stability, robust stability and robust performance are attained. The desired closed-loop specifications considered here are given in terms of a target performance vector representing a desired closed-loop design. The performance of the designed controller is validated through non-linear simulations for a range of contingencies.

Porous Ca-Si-based nanospheres : a potential intra-canal disinfectant-carrier for infected canal treatment

The aim of this study is to develop a new intra-canal disinfectant-carrier for infected canal treatment. To achieve this purpose, a new porous Ca-Si (CS)-based nanosphere was synthesized and characterized. Results showed that the nanospheres can infiltrate into dentinal tubules and released the ampicillin over one week time in a sustained manner. The release of ampicillin from spheres has significantly antibacterial property. Extensive and well-organized in vitro mineralization and crystallization of apatite were induced on the surface of dentin slices covered by CS nanospheres. All these features indicate that the porous CS nanospheres may be developed into a new intra-canal disinfectant-carrier for infected canal treatment.

Ureaplasma parvum : understanding the complexities of intra-amniotic infection in an ovine model

The human Ureaplasma species are the most frequently isolated bacteria from the upper genital tract of pregnant women and can cause clinically asymptomatic, intra-uterine infections, which are difficult to treat with antimicrobials. Ureaplasma infection of the upper genital tract during pregnancy has been associated with numerous adverse outcomes including preterm birth, chorioamnionitis and neonatal respiratory diseases. The mechanisms by which ureaplasmas are able to chronically colonise the amniotic fluid and avoid eradication by (i) the host immune response and (ii) maternally-administered antimicrobials, remain virtually unexplored. To address this gap within the literature, this study investigated potential mechanisms by which ureaplasmas are able to cause chronic, intra-amniotic infections in an established ovine model. In this PhD program of research the effectiveness of standard, maternal erythromycin for the treatment of chronic, intra-amniotic ureaplasma infections was evaluated. At 55 days of gestation pregnant ewes received an intra-amniotic injection of either: a clinical Ureaplasma parvum serovar 3 isolate that was sensitive to macrolide antibiotics (n = 16); or 10B medium (n = 16). At 100 days of gestation, ewes were then randomised to receive either maternal erythromycin treatment (30 mg/kg/day for four days) or no treatment. Ureaplasmas were isolated from amniotic fluid, chorioamnion, umbilical cord and fetal lung specimens, which were collected at the time of preterm delivery of the fetus (125 days of gestation). Surprisingly, the numbers of ureaplasmas colonising the amniotic fluid and fetal tissues were not different between experimentally-infected animals that received erythromycin treatment or infected animals that did not receive treatment (p > 0.05), nor were there any differences in fetal inflammation and histological chorioamnionitis between these groups (p > 0.05). These data demonstrate the inability of maternal erythromycin to eradicate intra-uterine ureaplasma infections. Erythromycin was detected in the amniotic fluid of animals that received antimicrobial treatment (but not in those that did not receive treatment) by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry; however, the concentrations were below therapeutic levels (<10 – 76 ng/mL). These findings indicate that the ineffectiveness of standard, maternal erythromycin treatment of intra-amniotic ureaplasma infections may be due to the poor placental transfer of this drug. Subsequently, the phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of ureaplasmas isolated from the amniotic fluid and chorioamnion of pregnant sheep after chronic, intra-amniotic infection and low-level exposure to erythromycin were investigated. At 55 days of gestation twelve pregnant ewes received an intra-amniotic injection of a clinical U. parvum serovar 3 isolate, which was sensitive to macrolide antibiotics. At 100 days of gestation, ewes received standard maternal erythromycin treatment (30 mg/kg/day for four days, n = 6) or saline (n = 6). Preterm fetuses were surgically delivered at 125 days of gestation and ureaplasmas were cultured from the amniotic fluid and the chorioamnion. The minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of erythromycin, azithromycin and roxithromycin were determined for cultured ureaplasma isolates, and antimicrobial susceptibilities were different between ureaplasmas isolated from the amniotic fluid (MIC range = 0.08 – 1.0 mg/L) and chorioamnion (MIC range = 0.06 – 5.33 mg/L). However, the increased resistance to macrolide antibiotics observed in chorioamnion ureaplasma isolates occurred independently of exposure to erythromycin in vivo. Remarkably, domain V of the 23S ribosomal RNA gene (which is the target site of macrolide antimicrobials) of chorioamnion ureaplasmas demonstrated significant variability (125 polymorphisms out of 422 sequenced nucleotides, 29.6%) when compared to the amniotic fluid ureaplasma isolates and the inoculum strain. This sequence variability did not occur as a consequence of exposure to erythromycin, as the nucleotide substitutions were identical between chorioamnion ureaplasmas isolated from different animals, including those that did not receive erythromycin treatment. We propose that these mosaic-like 23S ribosomal RNA gene sequences may represent gene fragments transferred via horizontal gene transfer. The significant differences observed in (i) susceptibility to macrolide antimicrobials and (ii) 23S ribosomal RNA sequences of ureaplasmas isolated from the amniotic fluid and chorioamnion suggests that the anatomical site from which they were isolated may exert selective pressures that alter the socio-microbiological structure of the bacterial population, by selecting for genetic changes and altered antimicrobial susceptibility profiles. The final experiment for this PhD examined antigenic size variation of the multiple banded antigen (MBA, a surface-exposed lipoprotein and predicted ureaplasmal virulence factor) in chronic, intra-amniotic ureaplasma infections. Previously defined ‘virulent-derived’ and ‘avirulent-derived’ clonal U. parvum serovar 6 isolates (each expressing a single MBA protein) were injected into the amniotic fluid of pregnant ewes (n = 20) at 55 days of gestation, and amniotic fluid was collected by amniocentesis every two weeks until the time of near-term delivery of the fetus (at 140 days of gestation). Both the avirulent and virulent clonal ureaplasma strains generated MBA size variants (ranging in size from 32 – 170 kDa) within the amniotic fluid of pregnant ewes. The mean number of MBA size variants produced within the amniotic fluid was not different between the virulent (mean = 4.2 MBA variants) and avirulent (mean = 4.6 MBA variants) ureaplasma strains (p = 0.87). Intra-amniotic infection with the virulent strain was significantly associated with the presence of meconium-stained amniotic fluid (p = 0.01), which is an indicator of fetal distress in utero. However, the severity of histological chorioamnionitis was not different between the avirulent and virulent groups. We demonstrated that ureaplasmas were able to persist within the amniotic fluid of pregnant sheep for 85 days, despite the host mounting an innate and adaptive immune response. Pro-inflammatory cytokines (interleukin (IL)-1â, IL-6 and IL-8) were elevated within the chorioamnion tissue of pregnant sheep from both the avirulent and virulent treatment groups, and this was significantly associated with the production of anti-ureaplasma IgG antibodies within maternal sera (p < 0.05). These findings suggested that the inability of the host immune response to eradicate ureaplasmas from the amniotic cavity may be due to continual size variation of MBA surface-exposed epitopes. Taken together, these data confirm that ureaplasmas are able to cause long-term in utero infections in a sheep model, despite standard antimicrobial treatment and the development of a host immune response. The overall findings of this PhD project suggest that ureaplasmas are able to cause chronic, intra-amniotic infections due to (i) the limited placental transfer of erythromycin, which prevents the accumulation of therapeutic concentrations within the amniotic fluid; (ii) the ability of ureaplasmas to undergo rapid selection and genetic variation in vivo, resulting in ureaplasma isolates with variable MICs to macrolide antimicrobials colonising the amniotic fluid and chorioamnion; and (iii) antigenic size variation of the MBA, which may prevent eradication of ureaplasmas by the host immune response and account for differences in neonatal outcomes. The outcomes of this program of study have improved our understanding of the biology and pathogenesis of this highly adapted microorganism.

Were regulatory changes in reporting "abnormal items" justified? : evidence of intra-period classificatory earnings management practices in Australia

Purpose Managers generally have discretion in determining how components of earnings are presented in financial statements in distinguishing between ‘normal’ earnings and items classified as unusual, special, significant, exceptional or abnormal. Prior research has found that such intra-period classificatory choice is used as a form of earnings management. Prior to 2001, Australian accounting standards mandated that unusually large items of revenue and expense be classified as ‘abnormal items’ for financial reporting, but this classification was removed from accounting standards from 2001. This move by the regulators was partly in response to concerns that the abnormal classification was being used opportunistically to manage reported pre-abnormal earnings. This study extends the earnings management literature by examining the reporting of abnormal items for evidence of intra-period classificatory earnings management in the unique Australian setting. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates associations between reporting of abnormal items and incentives in the form of analyst following and the earnings benchmarks of analysts’ forecasts, earnings levels, and earnings changes, for a sample of Australian top-500 firms for the seven-year period from 1994 to 2000. Findings The findings suggest there are systematic differences between firms reporting abnormal items and those with no abnormal items. Results show evidence that, on average, firms shifted expense items from pre-abnormal earnings to bottom line net income through reclassification as abnormal losses. Originality/value These findings suggest that the standard setters were justified in removing the ‘abnormal’ classification from the accounting standard. However, it cannot be assumed that all firms acted opportunistically in the classification of items as abnormal. With the removal of the standardised classification of items outside normal operations as ‘abnormal’, firms lost the opportunity to use such disclosures as a signalling device, with the consequential effect of limiting the scope of effectively communicating information about the nature of items presented in financial reports.

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

Persistence of multiple genetic lineages within intra-host populations of Ross River virus

We examined the structure and extent of genetic diversity in intrahost populations of Ross River virus (RRV) in samples from six human patients, focusing on the nonstructural (nsP3) and structural (E2) protein genes. Strikingly, although the samples were collected from contrasting ecological settings 3,000 kilometers apart in Australia, we observed multiple viral lineages in four of the six individuals, which is indicative of widespread mixed infections. In addition, a comparison with previously published RRV sequences revealed that these distinct lineages have been in circulation for at least 5 years, and we were able to document their long-term persistence over extensive geographical distances

Seasonal variation in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a subarctic population : the Tromso Study 1979-2008

Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.