Toma de decisiones en grupo con información parcial y veto basada en medidas de la intensidad de dominancia

En la mayoría de problemas de decisión a los que nos enfrentamos no hay evidencia sobre cuál es la mejor elección debido a la complejidad de los mismos. Esta complejidad está asociada a la existencia de múltiples objetivos conflictivos y a que en muchos casos solo se dispone de información incompleta o imprecisa sobre los distintos parámetros del modelo de decisión. Por otro lado, el proceso de toma de decisiones se puede realizar en grupo, debiendo incorporar al modelo las preferencias individuales de cada uno de los decisores y, posteriormente, agregarlas para alcanzar un consenso final, lo que dificulta más todavía el proceso de decisión. La metodología del Análisis de Decisiones (AD) es un procedimiento sistemático y lógico que permite estructurar y simplificar la tarea de tomar decisiones. Utiliza la información existente, datos recogidos, modelos y opiniones profesionales para cuantificar la probabilidad de los valores o impactos de las alternativas y la Teoría de la Utilidad para cuantificar las preferencias de los decisores sobre los posibles valores de las alternativas. Esta tesis doctoral se centra en el desarrollo de extensiones del modelo multicriterio en utilidad aditivo para toma de decisiones en grupo con veto en base al AD y al concepto de la intensidad de la dominancia, que permite explotar la información incompleta o imprecisa asociada a los parámetros del modelo. Se considera la posibilidad de que la importancia relativa que tienen los criterios del problema para los decisores se representa mediante intervalos de valores o información ordinal o mediante números borrosos trapezoidales. Adicionalmente, se considera que los decisores tienen derecho a veto sobre los valores de los criterios bajo consideración, pero solo un subconjunto de ellos es efectivo, teniéndose el resto solo en cuenta de manera parcial. ABSTRACT In most decision-making problems, the best choice is unclear because of their complexity. This complexity is mainly associated with the existence of multiple conflicting objectives. Besides, there is, in many cases, only incomplete or inaccurate information on the various decision model parameters. Alternatively, the decision-making process may be performed by a group. Consequently, the model must account for individual preferences for each decision-maker (DM), which have to be aggregated to reach a final consensus. This makes the decision process even more difficult. The decision analysis (DA) methodology is a systematic and logical procedure for structuring and simplifying the decision-making task. It takes advantage of existing information, collected data, models and professional opinions to quantify the probability of the alternative values or impacts and utility theory to quantify the DM’s preferences concerning the possible alternative values. This PhD. thesis focuses on developing extensions for a multicriteria additive utility model for group decision-making accounting for vetoes based on DA and on the concept of dominance intensity in order to exploit incomplete or imprecise information associated with the parameters of the decision-making model. We consider the possibility of the relative importance of criteria for DMs being represented by intervals or ordinal information, or by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Additionally, we consider that DMs are allowed to provide veto values for the criteria under consideration, of which only a subset are effective, whereas the remainder are only partially taken into account.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (East), and vicinity, 1955 (Raster Image) (Image 1 of 2)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the United States Geological Survey sheet map set entitled: Philadelphia and vicinity, east, 1955 (and west, 1956) (Pennsylvania - New Jersey) by the Geological Survey. It was published in 1958. Scale 1:24,000. Covers Philadelphia and portions of adjacent counties. Mapped by the Geological Survey, U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey and Army Map Service. Compiled from 1:24,000 scale maps of Langhorne 1953, Hatboro 1952, Ambler 1952, Germantown 1952, Frankford 1950, Beverly 1955, Moorestown 1953, Camden 1949, Philadelphia 1949, Woodbury 1949, Rennemede 1952, and Clementon 1953 7.5 minute quadrangles. This layer is image 1 of 2 total images of the two sheet source map set representing the eastern portion of the map. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Pennsylvania South State Plane Coordinate System NAD27 (in Feet) (Fipszone 3702). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. USGS maps are typical topographic maps portraying both natural and manmade features. They show and name works of nature, such as mountains, valleys, lakes, rivers, vegetation, etc. They also identify the principal works of humans, such as roads, railroads, boundaries, transmission lines, major buildings, etc. Relief is shown with standard contour intervals of 10 and 20 feet. Please pay close attention to map collar information on projections, spheroid, sources, dates, and keys to grid numbering and other numbers which appear inside the neatline. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (West), and vicinity, 1956 (Raster Image) (Image 2 of 2)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the United States Geological Survey sheet map set entitled: Philadelphia and vicinity, east, 1955 (and west, 1956) (Pennsylvania - New Jersey) by the Geological Survey. It was published in 1958. Scale 1:24,000. Covers Philadelphia and portions of adjacent counties. Mapped by the Geological Survey and U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey. Compiled from 1:24,000 scale maps of Ambler 1952, Lansdale 1951, Collegeville 1951, Valley Forge 1952, Norristown 1952, Germantown 1952, Philadelphia 1949, Lansdowne 1956, Media 1955, Marcus Hook 1953, Bridgeport 1953, and Woodbury 1949 1953 7.5 minute quadrangles. This layer is image 1 of 2 total images of the two sheet source map set representing the eastern portion of the map. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Pennsylvania South State Plane Coordinate System NAD27 (in Feet) (Fipszone 3702). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. USGS maps are typical topographic maps portraying both natural and manmade features. They show and name works of nature, such as mountains, valleys, lakes, rivers, vegetation, etc. They also identify the principal works of humans, such as roads, railroads, boundaries, transmission lines, major buildings, etc. Relief is shown with standard contour intervals of 10 and 20 feet. Please pay close attention to map collar information on projections, spheroid, sources, dates, and keys to grid numbering and other numbers which appear inside the neatline. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Los Angeles, California (East), and vicinity, 1953 (Raster Image) (Image 1 of 2)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the United States Geological Survey sheep map set entitled: Los Angeles and vicinity, East [and West], California. Edition 1953. It was published in 1956. Compiled from 1:24,000 scale maps of the Azusa 1953, Mt. Wilson 1953, Pasadena 1953, Los Angeles 1953, El Monte 1953, Baldwin Park 1953, La Habra 1950, Whittier 1949, and South Gate 1952 7.5 minute quadrangles. Scale 1:24,000. This layer is image 1 of 2 total images of the two sheet source map set representing the eastern portion of the map set. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the California State Plane Zone V Coordinate System NAD27 (in Feet) (Fipszone 0405). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. USGS maps are typical topographic maps portraying both natural and manmade features. They show and name works of nature, such as mountains, valleys, lakes, rivers, vegetation, etc. They also identify the principal works of humans, such as roads, railroads, boundaries, transmission lines, major buildings, etc. Relief is shown with standard contour intervals of 5 and 25 feet. Please pay close attention to map collar information on projections, spheroid, sources, dates, and keys to grid numbering and other numbers which appear inside the neatline. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Los Angeles, California (West), and vicinity, 1953 (Raster Image) (Image 2 of 2)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the United States Geological Survey sheep map set entitled: Los Angeles and vicinity, East [and West], California. Edition 1953. It was published in 1956. Compiled from 1:24,000 scale maps of the Burbank 1953, Van Nuys 1953, Canoga Park 1952, Topanga 1952, Beverly Hills 1950, Hollywood 1953, Inglewood 1952, and Venice 1950 7.5 minute quadrangles. Hydrography compiled from USC&GS Chart 5144. Scale 1:24,000. This layer is image 2 of 2 total images of the two sheet source map set representing the western portion of the map set. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the California State Plane Zone V Coordinate System NAD27 (in Feet) (Fipszone 0405). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. USGS maps are typical topographic maps portraying both natural and manmade features. They show and name works of nature, such as mountains, valleys, lakes, rivers, vegetation, etc. They also identify the principal works of humans, such as roads, railroads, boundaries, transmission lines, major buildings, etc. Relief is shown with standard contour intervals of 5 and 25 feet. Depth curves in feet. Please pay close attention to map collar information on projections, spheroid, sources, dates, and keys to grid numbering and other numbers which appear inside the neatline. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

The effects of lead stimulus and reflex stimulus modality on modulation of the blink reflex at very short, short, and long lead intervals

The blink reflex is modulated if a weak lead stimulus precedes the blink-eliciting stimulus. In two experiments, we examined the effects of the sensory modality of the lead and blink-eliciting stimuli on blink modulation. Acoustic, visual, or tactile lead stimuli were followed by an acoustic (Experiment 1) or an electrotactile (Experiment 2) blink-eliciting stimulus at lead intervals of -30, 0, 30, 60, 120, 240, 360, and 4,500 msec. The inhibition of blink magnitude at the short (60- to 360-msec) lead intervals and the facilitation of blink magnitude at the long (4,500-msec) lead interval observed for each lead stimulus modality was relatively unaffected by the blink-eliciting stimulus modality. The facilitation of blink magnitude at the very short (-30- to 30-msec) lead intervals was dependent on the combination of the lead and the blink-eliciting stimulus modalities. Modality specific and nonspecific processes operate at different levels of perceptual processing.

Implementation of the EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Random Effects Model for One Longitudinal Ordinal Outcome

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J99.

Radiolarian abundance of sediment core Y8

A high-resolution record of radiolarian faunal changes from Site Y8 south of the Subtropical Front (STF), offshore eastern New Zealand, provides insight into the paleoceanographic history of the last 265 kyrs. Quantitative analysis of radiolarian paleotemperature indicators and radiolarian-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates reveal distinct shifts during glacial-interglacial (G-I) climate cycles encompassing marine isotope stages (MIS) 8-1. Faunas at Site Y8 are abundant and diverse and consist of a mixture of species typical of the subantarctic, transitional and subtropical zones which is characteristic of subantarctic waters just south of the STF. During interglacials, diverse radiolarian faunas have increased numbers of warm-water taxa (not, vert, similar 15%) while cool-water taxa decrease to not, vert, similar 11% of the assemblage. Warmest climate conditions occurred during MIS 5.5 and the early Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) at the onset of MIS 1 where SSTs reach maxima of 12.8 and 12.9 °C, respectively. This suggests that temperatures during the HCO were comparable to the Eemian, one of the warmest interglacial intervals of the Late Quaternary. Glacials are characterized by less diverse radiolarian faunas with cool-water taxa increasing to 49% of the assemblage. Coolest climate conditions occurred in MIS 4 and 2 where SSTs are reduced to 5.4 °C and 4.3 °C, respectively. Radiolarian faunal changes and SST estimates clearly identify major water masses and oceanic fronts in the offshore eastern New Zealand area. During warmest MIS 5.5 and early MIS 1 substantial influence of northern-sourced Subtropical Surface Water (STW) is evident at Site Y8. This implies southward incursions of STW around the eastern crest of Chatham Rise with the STF displaced towards higher latitudes and spinning off eddies as far south as Campbell Plateau. Additionally, increased flow of the Southland Current (SC) might have enhanced the local occurrence of warm-water radiolarians derived from the subtropical Tasman Sea. Coolest glacials are marked by a strong inflow of cool, southern-sourced waters at Site Y8 indicating a more vigorous flow along the Subantarctic Front (SAF).

Description of loess sections in China

The magnetic susceptibility of loess and paleosols in central China represents a proxy climate index closely related to past changes of precipitation and vegetation, and thus to summer monsoon intensity. Time series of magnetic susceptibility constructed for three loess-paleosol sequences in the southern part of the Chinese Loess Plateau document the history of summer monsoon variation during the last 130,000 yr. They correlate closely with the oxygen isotope record of stages 1 to 5 in deep-sea sediments. Soils were forming during intervals of strong summer monsoon, whereas loess units were deposited at times of reduced monsoon intensity. The Chinese loess-paleosol sequence can thus be viewed as a proxy record of Asian monsoon variability extending over the last 2.5 myr.

Metabolic Memory Of ß-cells Controls Insulin Secretion And Is Mediated By Camkii.

Ca(2+)/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) functions both in regulation of insulin secretion and neurotransmitter release through common downstream mediators. Therefore, we hypothesized that pancreatic ß-cells acquire and store the information contained in calcium pulses as a form of metabolic memory, just as neurons store cognitive information. To test this hypothesis, we developed a novel paradigm of pulsed exposure of ß-cells to intervals of high glucose, followed by a 24-h consolidation period to eliminate any acute metabolic effects. Strikingly, ß-cells exposed to this high-glucose pulse paradigm exhibited significantly stronger insulin secretion. This metabolic memory was entirely dependent on CaMKII. Metabolic memory was reflected on the protein level by increased expression of proteins involved in glucose sensing and Ca(2+)-dependent vesicle secretion, and by elevated levels of the key ß-cell transcription factor MAFA. In summary, like neurons, human and mouse ß-cells are able to acquire and retrieve information.

Recolonization Of Mutans Streptococci After Application Of Chlorhexidine Gel.

Streptococcus mutans is specifically suppressed by intensive treatment with chlorhexidine gel, but the time for recolonization and the effect on other oral bacteria are not totally clear. In this study, recolonization of mutans streptococci was evaluated in nine healthy adult volunteers, who were highly colonized with this microorganism. Stimulated saliva was collected before (baseline) and at 1, 7, 14, 21 and 28 days after application of 1% chlorhexidine gel on volunteers' teeth for two consecutive days. On each day, the gel was applied using disposable trays for 3 x 5 min with intervals of 5 min between each application. Saliva was plated on blood agar to determine total microorganisms (TM); on mitis salivarius agar to determine total streptococci (TS) and on mitis salivarius agar plus bacitracin to determine mutans streptococci (MS). Chlorhexidine was capable of reducing the counts of MS and the proportion of MS with regard to total microorganisms (%MS/TM) (p<0.05), but these values did not differ statistically from baseline (p>0.05) after 14 days for MS and 21 days for %MS/TM. The counts of TM and TS and the proportion of MS to total streptococci did not differ statistically from baseline (p>0.05) after chlorhexidine treatment. The results suggest that the effect of chlorhexidine gel treatment on suppression of mutans streptococci is limited to less than a month in highly colonized individuals.

Modeling The Effects Of Temperature And Ph On The Resistance Of Alicyclobacillus Acidoterrestris In Conventional Heat-treated Fruit Beverages Through A Meta-analysis Approach.

In this work, all publicly-accessible published findings on Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris heat resistance in fruit beverages as affected by temperature and pH were compiled. Then, study characteristics (protocols, fruit and variety, °Brix, pH, temperature, heating medium, culture medium, inactivation method, strains, etc.) were extracted from the primary studies, and some of them incorporated to a meta-analysis mixed-effects linear model based on the basic Bigelow equation describing the heat resistance parameters of this bacterium. The model estimated mean D* values (time needed for one log reduction at a temperature of 95 °C and a pH of 3.5) of Alicyclobacillus in beverages of different fruits, two different concentration types, with and without bacteriocins, and with and without clarification. The zT (temperature change needed to cause one log reduction in D-values) estimated by the meta-analysis model were compared to those ('observed' zT values) reported in the primary studies, and in all cases they were within the confidence intervals of the model. The model was capable of predicting the heat resistance parameters of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages beyond the types available in the meta-analytical data. It is expected that the compilation of the thermal resistance of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages, carried out in this study, will be of utility to food quality managers in the determination or validation of the lethality of their current heat treatment processes.

Dispersal and survival of Nyssomyia intermedia and Nyssomyia neivai (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in a cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic area of the speleological province of the Ribeira Valley, state of São Paulo, Brazil

The dispersal and survival of the phlebotomines Nyssomyia intermedia and Nyssomyia neivai (both implicated as vectors of the cutaneous leishmaniasis agent) in an endemic area was investigated using a capture-mark-release technique in five experiments from August-December 2003 in municipality of Iporanga, state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 1,749 males and 1,262 females of Ny. intermedia and 915 males and 411 females of Ny. neivai were marked and released during the five experiments. Recapture attempts were made using automatic light traps, aspiration in natural resting places and domestic animal shelters and Shannon traps. A total of 153 specimens (3.48%) were recaptured: 2.59% (78/3,011) for Ny. intermedia and 5.35% (71/1,326) for Ny. neivai. Both species were recaptured up to 144 h post-release, with the larger part of them recaptured within 48 h. The median dispersion distances for Ny. intermedia and Ny. neivai, respectively, were 109 m and 100 m. The greatest dispersal range of Ny. intermedia was 180 m, while for Ny. neivai one female was recaptured in a pasture at 250 m and another in a pigsty at 520 m, showing a tendency to disperse to more open areas. The daily survival rates calculated based on regressions of the numbers of marked insects recaptured on the six successive days after release were 0.746 for males and 0.575 for females of Ny. intermedia and 0.649 for both sexes of Ny. neivai. The size of the populations in the five months ranged from 8,332-725,085 for Ny. intermedia males, 2,193-104,490 for Ny. intermedia females, 1,687-350,122 for Ny. neivai males and 254-49,705 for Ny. neivai females.

On the accuracy of two-fluid model predictions for a particular gas-solid riser flow

Literature presents a huge number of different simulations of gas-solid flows in risers applying two-fluid modeling. In spite of that, the related quantitative accuracy issue remains mostly untouched. This state of affairs seems to be mainly a consequence of modeling shortcomings, notably regarding the lack of realistic closures. In this article predictions from a two-fluid model are compared to other published two-fluid model predictions applying the same Closures, and to experimental data. A particular matter of concern is whether the predictions are generated or not inside the statistical steady state regime that characterizes the riser flows. The present simulation was performed inside the statistical steady state regime. Time-averaged results are presented for different time-averaging intervals of 5, 10, 15 and 20 s inside the statistical steady state regime. The independence of the averaged results regarding the time-averaging interval is addressed and the results averaged over the intervals of 10 and 20 s are compared to both experiment and other two-fluid predictions. It is concluded that the two-fluid model used is still very crude, and cannot provide quantitative accurate results, at least for the particular case that was considered. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cultivation of hitherto-uncultured bacteria belonging to the Verrucomicrobia subdivision 1 from the potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) rhizosphere

The role of dominant bacterial groups in the plant rhizosphere, e.g., those belonging to the phyla Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia, has, so far, not been elucidated, and this is mainly due to the lack of culturable representatives. This study aimed to isolate hitherto-uncultured bacteria from the potato rhizosphere by a combination of cultivation approaches. An agar medium low in carbon availability (oligotrophic agar medium) and either amended with potato root exudates or catalase or left unamended was used with the aim to improve the culturability of bacteria from the potato rhizosphere. The colony forming unit numbers based on colonies and microcolonies were compared with microscopically determined fluorescence-stained cell numbers. Taxonomical diversity of the colonies was compared with that of library clones made from rhizosphere DNA, on the basis of 16S rRNA gene comparisons. The oligotrophic media amended or not with catalase or rhizosphere extract recovered up to 33.6% of the total bacterial numbers, at least seven times more than the recovery observed on R2A. Four hitherto-uncultured Verrucomicrobia subdivision 1 representatives were recovered on agar, but representatives of this group were not found in the clone library. The use of oligotrophic medium and its modifications enabled the growth of colony numbers, exceeding those on classical agar media. Also, it led to the isolation of hitherto-uncultured bacteria from the potato rhizosphere. Further improvement in cultivation will certainly result in the recovery of other as-yet-unexplored bacteria from the rhizosphere, making these groups accessible for further investigation, e.g., with respect to their possible interactions with plants.