On the Qualitative Comparison of Decisions Having Positive and Negative Features

Making a decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments. In such cases, the evaluation scale for decisions should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values should be explicitly distinguished. That is what is done, for example, in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, human agents often decide on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and by focusing on the most salient arguments. In other terms, the decision process is qualitative as well as bipolar. In this article, based on a bipolar extension of possibility theory, we define and axiomatically characterize several decision rules tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative arguments in an ordinal setting. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case, and consequently suffer from poor decisive power. More decisive rules that refine the former are also proposed. These refinements agree both with principles of efficiency and with the spirit of order-of-magnitude reasoning, that prevails in qualitative decision theory. The most refined decision rule uses leximin rankings of the pros and the cons, and the ideas of counting arguments of equal strength and cancelling pros by cons. It is shown to come down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and to subsume the “Take the Best” heuristic studied by cognitive psychologists.

Janus kinase inhibition and its effect upon the therapeutic landscape for myelofibrosis:from palliation to cure?

Following the discovery of the Janus kinase (JAK) 2 V617F mutation in 2005 the explosion of research and drug development activity has not only advanced our understanding of the pathogenesis of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) but also triggered debate about classification, allowed revised diagnostic and response criteria, provided a target for treatment and a mode of monitoring its success. These changes and the resultant clinical research are discussed in this article where we argue that discovery of the JAK2 V617F mutation has signalled the much delayed change in therapeutic paradigm for myelofibrosis and possibly other MPNs from palliation and allowing us to move closer to, but not yet attain, a cure.

RESOURCES, DEPRIVATION AND THE MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY

Ringen has advocated the use of both income and deprivation criteria in identifying those excluded from society due to lack of resources, a widely accepted definition of poverty. We illustrate with Irish data how this might be done, paying particular attention to how appropriate indicators of deprivation are to be selected. The results show that employing both income and deprivation criteria rather than income alone can make a substantial difference to both the extent and composition of measured poverty. This highlights the restrictive nature of poverty conceived in terms of exclusion rather than minimum rights to resources.

Diagnosing diabetes mellitus - Do we need new criteria?

The current classification and diagnostic criteria for diabetes mellitus were introduced by the United States National Data Group in 1979 and endorsed by the World Health Organization in 1980, with modifications in 1985 and 1994. The criteria, chosen to reflect the risk of complications, were the synthesis of considerable thought and expertise and represented a consensus which, it was hoped, would prove helpful to all those involved with diabetes practising clinician, research scientist and epidemiologist alike. The inconvenience, variability and nonphysiological nature of the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) are well-recognised. In spite of these limitations the 2-h post-load plasma glucose has remained the standard against which all other tests have been evaluated. This article reviews the original justification for the OGTT, and in the light of more recent epidemiological research seeks to place the current diagnostic criteria for diabetes into a pathophysiological, diagnostic and prognostic perspective.

Irish study on high-density schizophrenia families:field methods and power to detect linkage

Large samples of multiplex pedigrees will probably be needed to detect susceptibility loci for schizophrenia by linkage analysis. Standardized ascertainment of such pedigrees from culturally and ethnically homogeneous populations may improve the probability of detection and replication of linkage. The Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) was formed from standardized ascertainment of multiplex schizophrenia families in 39 psychiatric facilities covering over 90% of the population in Ireland and Northern Ireland. We here describe a phenotypic sample and a subset thereof, the linkage sample. Individuals were included in the phenotypic sample if adequate diagnostic information, based on personal interview and/or hospital record, was available. Only individuals with available DNA were included in the linkage sample. Inclusion of a pedigree into the phenotypic sample required at least two first, second, or third degree relatives with non-affective psychosis (NAP), one whom had schizophrenia (S) or poor-outcome schizo-affective disorder (PO-SAD). Entry into the linkage sample required DNA samples on at least two individuals with NAP, of whom at least one had S or PO-SAD. Affection was defined by narrow, intermediate, and broad criteria. The phenotypic sample contained 277 pedigrees and 1,770 individuals and the linkage sample 265 pedigrees and 1,408 individuals. Using the intermediate definition of affection, the phenotypic sample contained 837 affected individuals and 526 affected sibling pairs. Parallel figures for the linkage sample were 700 and 420. Individuals with schizophrenia from these multiplex pedigrees resembled epidemiologically sampled cases with respect to age at onset, gender distribution, and most clinical symptoms, although they were more thought-disordered and had a poorer outcome. Power analyses based on the model of linkage heterogeneity indicated that the ISHDSF should be able to detect a major locus that influences susceptibility to schizophrenia in as few as 20% of families. Compared to first-degree relatives of epidemiologically sampled schizophrenic probands, first-degree relatives of schizophrenic members from the ISHDSF had a similar risk for schizotypal personality disorder, affective illness, alcoholism, and anxiety disorder. With sufficient resources, large-scale ascertainment of multiplex schizophrenia pedigrees is feasible, especially in countries with catchmented psychiatric care and stable populations. Although somewhat more severely ill, schizophrenic members of such pedigrees appear to clinically resemble typical schizophrenic patients. Our ascertainment process for multiplex schizophrenia families did not select for excess familial risk for affective illness or alcoholism. With its large sample ascertained in a standardized manner from a relatively homogeneous population, the ISHDSF provides considerable power to detect susceptibility loci for schizophrenia.

Physical Activity and Cognitive Function in the Elderly: a Systematic Review

Background: Physical activity appears important contributor for healthy aging, including cognitive function. However, it is unclear whether late life physical activity alone is beneficial to cognitive function. We performed a systematic review to examine the effect of late life physical activity in maintaining cognitive function in older persons.
Methods: Search Strategy and Selection criteria: The search sources consisted of PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CENTRAL), and the University of Washington Medical School Library Database between July 15, 2011 and August 15, 2012 with language restricted to English. Studies that were published in journals on or after January 2000 with participants older than 60 years of age were reviewed. Randomized controlled trials including at least 30 participants and lasting for at least 6 months and all observational studies of at least 100 participants and lasting at least 1 year in duration were eligible for inclusion Two reviewers assessed the applicability and results of these studies.
Results: Twenty-six studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria are included. Twenty-one studies reported that late life physical activity resulted in maintenance or enhancement of cognitive function. Three studies reported a dose-response relationship between physical activity and cognition.
Conclusions: Late life physical activity is beneficial for cognitive function in the elderly. However, the majority of the evidence is of medium quality with moderate risk of bias. Larger, randomized controlled trials are needed to better define the association between late life physical activity and cognitive function. Further research is required to determine which types of exercise have the greatest benefits on specific cognitive domains. Despite these caveats, current data are sufficient to recommend that moderate level, late life physical activity may be an effective method to improve cognitive function and delay the onset and progression of cognitive disease in the elderly.

Management and diagnosis of psychogenic cough, habit cough, and tic cough: A systematic review

BACKGROUND: Several pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic therapeutic options have been used to treat cough that is not associated with a pulmonary or extrapulmonary etiology.

METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to summarize the evidence supporting different cough management options in adults and children with psychogenic, tic, and habit cough. Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus were searched from the earliest inception of each database to September 2013. Content experts were contacted, and we searched bibliographies of included studies to identify additional references.

RESULTS: A total of 18 uncontrolled studies were identified, enrolling 223 patients (46% male subjects, 96% children and adolescents). Psychogenic cough was the most common descriptive term used (90% of the studies). Most of the patients (95%) had no cough during sleep; barking or honking quality of cough was described in only eight studies. Hypnosis (three studies), suggestion therapy (four studies), and counseling and reassurance (seven studies) were the most commonly used interventions. Hypnosis was effective in resolving cough in 78% of the patients and improving it in another 5%. Suggestion therapy resolved cough successfully in 96% of the patients. The greatest majority of improvements noted with these forms of therapy occurred in the pediatric age group. The quality of evidence is low due to the lack of control groups, the retrospective nature of all the studies, heterogeneity of definitions and diagnostic criteria, and the high likelihood of reporting bias.

CONCLUSIONS: Only low-quality evidence exists to support a particular strategy to define and treat psychogenic, habit, and tic cough. Patient values, preferences, and availability of potential therapies should guide treatment choice.

The development of the PROMPT (PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People’s Treatments) criteria

BACKGROUND: Whilst multimorbidity is more prevalent with increasing age, approximately 30% of middle-aged adults (45-64 years) are also affected. Several prescribing criteria have been developed to optimise medication use in older people (≥65 years) with little focus on potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in middle-aged adults. We have developed a set of explicit prescribing criteria called PROMPT (PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People's Treatments) which may be applied to prescribing datasets to determine the prevalence of PIP in this age-group.

METHODS: A literature search was conducted to identify published prescribing criteria for all age groups, with the Project Steering Group (convened for this study) adding further criteria for consideration, all of which were reviewed for relevance to middle-aged adults. These criteria underwent a two-round Delphi process, using an expert panel consisting of general practitioners, pharmacists and clinical pharmacologists from the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland. Using web-based questionnaires, 17 panellists were asked to indicate their level of agreement with each criterion via a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Strongly Disagree, 5 = Strongly Agree) to assess the applicability to middle-aged adults in the absence of clinical information. Criteria were accepted/rejected/revised dependent on the panel's level of agreement using the median response/interquartile range and additional comments.

RESULTS: Thirty-four criteria were rated in the first round of this exercise and consensus was achieved on 17 criteria which were accepted into the PROMPT criteria. Consensus was not reached on the remaining 17, and six criteria were removed following a review of the additional comments. The second round of this exercise focused on the remaining 11 criteria, some of which were revised following the first exercise. Five criteria were accepted from the second round, providing a final list of 22 criteria [gastro-intestinal system (n = 3), cardiovascular system (n = 4), respiratory system (n = 4), central nervous system (n = 6), infections (n = 1), endocrine system (n = 1), musculoskeletal system (n = 2), duplicates (n = 1)].

CONCLUSIONS: PROMPT is the first set of prescribing criteria developed for use in middle-aged adults. The utility of these criteria will be tested in future studies using prescribing datasets.

Defining and assessing animal pain

The detection and assessment of pain in animals is crucial to improving their welfare in a variety of contexts in which humans are ethically or legally bound to do so. Thus clear standards to judge whether pain is likely to occur in any animal species is vital to inform whether to alleviate pain or to drive the refinement of procedures to reduce invasiveness, thereby minimizing pain. We define two key concepts that can be used to evaluate the potential for pain in both invertebrate and vertebrate taxa. First, responses to noxious, potentially painful events should affect neurobiology, physiology and behaviour in a different manner to innocuous stimuli and subsequent behaviour should be modified including avoidance learning and protective responses. Second, animals should show a change in motivational state after experiencing a painful event such that future behavioural decision making is altered and can be measured as a change in conditioned place preference, self-administration of analgesia, paying a cost to access analgesia or avoidance of painful stimuli and reduced performance in concurrent events. The extent to which vertebrate and selected invertebrate groups fulfil these criteria is discussed in light of the empirical evidence and where there are gaps in our knowledge we propose future studies are vital to improve our assessment of pain. This review highlights arguments regarding animal pain and defines criteria that demonstrate, beyond a reasonable doubt, whether animals of a given species experience pain.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines on the diagnosis and management of Barrett's oesophagus

These guidelines provide a practical and evidence-based resource for the management of patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related early neoplasia. The Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) instrument was followed to provide a methodological strategy for the guideline development. A systematic review of the literature was performed for English language articles published up until December 2012 in order to address controversial issues in Barrett's oesophagus including definition, screening and diagnosis, surveillance, pathological grading for dysplasia, management of dysplasia, and early cancer including training requirements. The rigour and quality of the studies was evaluated using the SIGN checklist system. Recommendations on each topic were scored by each author using a five-tier system (A+, strong agreement, to D+, strongly disagree). Statements that failed to reach substantial agreement among authors, defined as >80% agreement (A or A+), were revisited and modified until substantial agreement (>80%) was reached. In formulating these guidelines, we took into consideration benefits and risks for the population and national health system, as well as patient perspectives. For the first time, we have suggested stratification of patients according to their estimated cancer risk based on clinical and histopathological criteria. In order to improve communication between clinicians, we recommend the use of minimum datasets for reporting endoscopic and pathological findings. We advocate endoscopic therapy for high-grade dysplasia and early cancer, which should be performed in high-volume centres. We hope that these guidelines will standardise and improve management for patients with Barrett's oesophagus and related neoplasia.

Somatic Cough Syndrome (Previously Referred to as Psychogenic Cough) and Tic Cough (Previously Referred to as Habit Cough) in Adults and Children: CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report

BACKGROUND: We conducted a systematic review on the management of psychogenic cough, habit cough, and tic cough to update the recommendations and suggestions of the 2006 guideline on this topic.

METHODS: We followed the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) methodologic guidelines and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework. The Expert Cough Panel based their recommendations on data from the systematic review, patients' values and preferences, and the clinical context. Final grading was reached by consensus according to Delphi methodology.

RESULTS: The results of the systematic review revealed only low-quality evidence to support how to define or diagnose psychogenic or habit cough with no validated diagnostic criteria. With respect to treatment, low-quality evidence allowed the committee to only suggest therapy for children believed to have psychogenic cough. Such therapy might consist of nonpharmacologic trials of hypnosis or suggestion therapy, or combinations of reassurance, counseling, and referral to a psychologist, psychotherapy, and appropriate psychotropic medications. Based on multiple resources and contemporary psychologic, psychiatric, and neurologic criteria (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition and tic disorder guidelines), the committee suggests that the terms psychogenic and habit cough are out of date and inaccurate.

CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the 2006 CHEST Cough Guidelines, the major change in suggestions is that the terms psychogenic and habit cough be abandoned in favor of somatic cough syndrome and tic cough, respectively, even though the evidence to do so at this time is of low quality.

Natural substances and high pressure processing to preserve sea bass

Esta tese teve como objectivo estudar estratégias de conservação de pescado fresco, recorrendo ao uso de extractos e óleos essenciais de plantas e do processamento por alta pressão (HPP), usando filetes de robalo como um caso de estudo modelo. Relativamente aos extractos e óleos essenciais, avaliaram-se as suas propriedades antibacterianas e antioxidantes. Os extractos aquosos quente de poejo e de orégão e o óleo essencial de cravinho apresentaram a maior actividade antioxidante. Os óleos essenciais foram mais eficientes do que os extractos para inibir o crescimento das estirpes bacterianas testadas, tendo-se observado os menores valores de concentração mínima inibitória nos óleos essenciais de orégão, citronela, alho e orégão Espanhol. De seguida, estudou-se o efeito dos óleos essenciais de orégão Espanhol e de limão na conservação de filetes de robalo fresco tendo em conta critérios microbiológicos, químicos, físicos e sensoriais. A aplicação do óleo essencial de orégão Espanhol aumentou o tempo de vida útil dos filetes sob o ponto de vista bacteriano, mas não em termos sensoriais. A combinação dos óleos essenciais de orégão Espanhol e de limão melhorou o efeito antioxidante e reduziu a intensidade do odor e a sua eficácia em relação às Enterobacteriaceae, comparando com o tratamento com óleo essencial de orégão Espanhol per se. No sentido de reduzir o odor conferido pelos óleos essenciais realizou-se um estudo de conservação para avaliar o efeito de películas com óleos essenciais (citronela, alho e tomilho) em filetes de robalo, recorrendo a uma teste de desafio bacteriano. As películas sem óleos essenciais aumentaram o tempo de vida útil sob o ponto de vista bacteriano, mas este efeito não foi observado com a incorporação dos óleos essenciais nas películas. Em relação ao HPP, testaram-se diversas condições (nível de pressão, tempo de pressurização e taxa de pressurização) e avaliaram-se os efeitos na actividade enzimática, na qualidade global e na conservação de filetes de robalo fresco. Em geral, o aumento do nível de pressão e do tempo de pressurização diminuiu a actividade da fosfatase ácida e das enzimas proteolíticas, a carga bacteriana e a capacidade de retenção de água, enquanto que os filetes ficaram mais brancos. O HPP revelou potencial para o desenvolvimento de novos produtos: mais brancos, não translúcidos, mais firmes e com maior tempo de frescura e estabilidade microbiológica. Em conclusão, os óleos essenciais e o HPP têm potencial para conservar pescado fresco, devido aos seus efeitos na qualidade bacteriana. Ainda assim, mais esforços devem ser feitos no sentido de reduzir a transferência de odor dos óleos essenciais para o pescado e os efeitos do HPP no aspecto do pescado e na oxidação lipídica.

Conspicuous by their abstinence: the limited engagement of heroin users in English and Welsh Drug Recovery Wings

Background In recent years, an abstinence-focused, ‘recovery’ agenda has emerged in UK drug policy, largely in response to the perception that many opioid users had been ‘parked indefinitely’ on Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST). The introduction of ten pilot ‘Drug Recovery Wings’ (DRWs) in 2011 represents the application of this recovery agenda to prisons. This paper describes the DRWs’ operational models, the place of opiate dependent prisoners within them, and the challenges of delivering ‘recovery’ in prison. Methods In 2013, the implementation and operational models of all ten pilot DRWs were rapidly assessed. Up to three days were spent in each DRW, undertaking semi-structured interviews with a sample of 94 DRW staff and 102 DRW residents. Interviews were fully transcribed, and coded using grounded theory. Findings from the nine adult prisons are presented here. Results Four types of DRW were identified, distinguished by their size and selection criteria. Strikingly, no mid- or large-sized units regularly supported OST recipients through detoxification. Type A were large units whose residents were mostly on OST with long criminal records and few social or personal resources. Detoxification was rare, and medication reduction slow. Type B's mid-sized DRW was developed as a psychosocial support service for OST clients seeking detoxification. However, staff struggled to find such prisoners, and detoxification again proved rare. Type C DRWs focused on abstinence from all drugs, including OST. Though OST clients were not intentionally excluded, very few applied to these wings. Only Type D DRWs, offering intensive treatment on very small wings, regularly recruited OST recipients into abstinence-focused interventions. Conclusion Prison units wishing to support OST recipients in making greater progress towards abstinence may need to be small, intensive and take a stepped approach based on preparatory motivational work and extensive preparation for release. However, concerns about post-release deaths will remain.

Adding value to performance measurement by using system dynamics and multicriteria analysis

Tese de dout., Filosofia, Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, 2004

Evaluation and Application of Environmental Flows in Running Waters in Slovenia

Water use invariably results in major impacts on river flows. Environmental Flows (EF) are defined as the quantity and quality of water that is needed to preserve the structure and the function of the river and riparian zone ecosystem and sufficient quantity of water to enable the survival and reproduction of aquatic organisms in different hydraulic habitats. This paper describes the criteria and methods used to determine EF and experiences with their application in Slovenia. The diversity of running waters of Slovenia demand special treatment and determination of EF for each individual section of the river system. Using hydrological, morphological and ecological criteria, two different approaches are used for the determination of EF in Slovenia, a rapid assessment method and a detailed assessment method. For both methods, data are then analyzed by an expert panel in order to determine an EF. Since 1994, more than 180 study sites have been examined for research and application of EF in Slovenia. Determination of EF for existing users has prioritized their water requirements so they can remain economically viable. Where new schemes are proposed, there has been much greater scope to prioritize ecosystem requirements. EF determination is receiving growing attention and will continue to increase in importance, driven by research that aids our understanding of flow-biota relationships and recent environmental policy and legislation at both the national and European level.