Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

Stress at work : a new theoretical framework for psychologists

This paper examines the way psychologists and others in teh helping professions can deal with stressors in their lives and still work effectively. Three questions will be asked. First "What are the essential ingredients of an environment that supports psychologists going through personal stressors? Second, "What are the personal characteristics and strategies that give resilience to a professional during this period?" and third,"How does the stressor or grieving process influence a psychologist's therapy?" The whole will be fitted into a visual framework and the interaction of the three main variables (client, therapist and stressor) will be explored.

Learning processes in creative industries initiatives in developing countries : an examination of policy and practice

What does a dance group in Benin that mixes contemporary and ethnic dancing have in common with Mongolian felt producers that want to enter the design market in Europe? These are both examples of learning processes in Creative Industries initiatives in developing countries. Following the concept of sustainable development, I argue that the challenge for developing countries in contemporary society is to meet the very real need of people for economic development and opportunities for income generation, while at the same time avoiding unintended and unwanted consequences of economic development and globalisation. The concept of the Creative Industries may be a way to promote a development that is sustainable and avoids social exclusion of groups-at-risk. In line with this, I argue that the Creative Industries sector could, in fact, link economic development and the continuation and evolution of local traditions and cultural heritage. A pressing question then is: how can education and learning contribute to creating a context in which talent can flourish? This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the research problem of this thesis: what elements are conducive for individual learning processes in creative development initiatives? In this, I argue that it is crucial to determine what ingredients and characteristics contribute to making these initiatives successful, that is, to meet their specific goals, in a developing context. This is explored through a staged analysis: an overview of quantitative data, an inventory and comparative case studies and, finally, the description and analysis of two in-depth case studies – felt design in Mongolia (Asia) and dance in Benin (Africa), in which I was an observer of the action phase of the local interventions. The analysis culminates in practice-related outcomes related to the operation of creative development initiatives, as well as the contribution to the academic debate on issues like the cultural gap between developed and developing countries, transformative learning and the connection of learning spaces.

Effects of acute multinutrient supplementation on rugby union game performance and recovery

Purpose: To investigate the effects of an acute multinutrient supplement on game-based running performance, peak power output, anaerobic by-products, hormonal profiles, markers of muscle damage, and perceived muscular soreness before, immediately after, and 24 h following competitive rugby union games. Methods: Twelve male rugby union players ingested either a comprehensive multinutrient supplement (SUPP), [RE-ACTIVATE:01], or a placebo (PL) for 5 d. Participants then performed a competitive rugby union game (with global positioning system tracking), with associated blood draws and vertical jump assessments pre, immediately post and 24 h following competition. Results: SUPP ingestion resulted in moderate to large effects for augmented 1st half very high intensity running (VHIR) mean speed (5.9 ± 0.4 vs 4.8 ± 2.3 m·min–1; d= 0.93). Further, moderate increases in 2nd half VHIR distance (137 ± 119 vs 83 ± 89 m; d= 0.73) and VHIR mean speed (5.9 ± 0.6 v 5.3 ± 1.7 m·min–1; d= 0.56) in SUPP condition were also apparent. Postgame aspartate aminotransferase (AST; 44.1 ± 11.8 vs 37.0 ± 3.2 UL; d= 1.16) and creatine kinase (CK; 882 ± 472 vs. 645 ± 123 UL; d= 0.97) measures demonstrated increased values in the SUPP condition, while AST and CK values correlated with 2nd half VHIR distance (r= –0.71 and r= –0.76 respectively). Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) was observed postgame in both conditions; however, it was significantly blunted with SUPP (P= .05). Conclusions: These findings suggest SUPP may assist in the maintenance of VHIR during rugby union games, possibly via the buffering qualities of SUPP ingredients. However, correlations between increased work completed at very high intensities and muscular degradation in SUPP conditions, may mask any anticatabolic properties of the supplement.

Effects of acute multi-nutrient supplementation on rugby union match performance and recovery

Aim: To determine the effects of an acute multi-nutrient supplement on physiological, performance and recovery responses to intermittent-sprint running and muscular damage during rugby union matches. Methods: Using a randomised, double-blind, cross-over design, twelve male rugby union players ingested either 75 g of a comprehensive multi-nutrient supplement (SUPP), [Musashi] or 1 g of a taste and carbohydrate matched placebo (PL) for 5 days pre-competition. Competitive rugby union game running performance was then measured using 1 Hz GPS data (SPI10, SPI elite, GPSports), in addition to associated blood draws, vertical jump assessments and ratings of perceived muscular soreness (MS) pre, immediately post and 24 h post-competition. Baseline (BL) GPS data was collected during six competition rounds preceding data collection. Results: No significant differences were observed between supplement conditions for all game running, vertical jump, and ratings of perceived muscular soreness. However, effect size analysis indicated SUPP ingestion increased 1st half very high intensity running (VHIR) mean speed (d = 0.93) and 2nd half relative distance (m/min) (d = 0.97). Further, moderate increases in 2nd half VHIR distance (d = 0.73), VHIR m/min (d = 0.70) and VHIR mean speed (d = 0.56) in SUPP condition were also apparent. Moreover, SUPP demonstrated significant increases in 2nd half dist m/min, total game dist m/min and total game HIR m/min compared with BL data (P < 0.05). Further, large ES increases in VHIR time (d = 0.88) and moderate increases in 2nd half HIR m/min (d = 0.65) and 2nd half VHIR m/min (d = 0.74) were observed between SUPP and BL. Post-game aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (d = 1.16) and creatine kinase (CK) (d = 0.97) measures demonstrated increased ES values with SUPP, while AST and CK values correlated with 2nd half VHIR distance (r = −0.71 and r = −0.76 respectively). Elevated c-reactive protein (CRP) was observed post-game in both conditions, however was significantly blunted with SUPP (P = 0.05). Additionally, pre-game (d = 0.98) and post-game (d = 0.96) increases in cortisol (CORT) were apparent with SUPP. No differences were apparent between conditions for pH, lactate, glucose, HCO3, vertical jump assessments and MS (P > 0.05). Conclusion: These findings suggest SUPP may assist in the maintenance of VHIR speeds and distances covered during rugby union games, possibly via the buffering qualities of SUPP ingredients (i.e. caffeine, creatine, bicarbonate). While the mechanisms for these findings are unclear, the similar pH between conditions despite additional VHIR during SUPP may support this conclusion. Finally, correlations between increased work completed at very high intensities and muscular degradation in SUPP conditions, may mask any anti-catabolic properties of supplementation.

Recipe for success : cooking up a storm in the technology classroom

Ingredients: - 1 cup Vision - 100ml ‘Real World’ Application - 100ml Unit Structure/Organisation - 100ml Student-centric Approach [optional: Add Social Media/Popular Culture for extra goodness] - Large Dollop of Passion + Enthusiasm - Sprinkle of Approachability Mix all ingredients well. Cover and leave to rise in a Lecture Theatre for 1.5 hours. Cook in a Classroom for 1.5 hours. Garnish with a dash of Humour before serving. Serves 170 Students

Factors affecting the accuracy of engineers' estimates

Emerging sciences, such as conceptual cost estimating, seem to have to go through two phases. The first phase involves reducing the field of study down to its basic ingredients - from systems development to technological development (techniques) to theoretical development. The second phase operates in the direction in building up techniques from theories, and systems from techniques. Cost estimating is clearly and distinctly still in the first phase. A great deal of effort has been put into the development of both manual and computer based cost estimating systems during this first phase and, to a lesser extent, the development of a range of techniques that can be used (see, for instance, Ashworth & Skitmore, 1986). Theoretical developments have not, as yet, been forthcoming. All theories need the support of some observational data and cost estimating is not likely to be an exception. These data do not need to be complete in order to build theories. As it is possible to construct an image of a prehistoric animal such as the brontosaurus from only a few key bones and relics, so a theory of cost estimating may possibly be found on a few factual details. The eternal argument of empiricists and deductionists is that, as theories need factual support, so do we need theories in order to know what facts to collect. In cost estimating, the basic facts of interest concern accuracy, the cost of achieving this accuracy, and the trade off between the two. When cost estimating theories do begin to emerge, it is highly likely that these relationships will be central features. This paper presents some of the facts we have been able to acquire regarding one part of this relationship - accuracy, and its influencing factors. Although some of these factors, such as the amount of information used in preparing the estimate, will have cost consequences, we have not yet reached the stage of quantifying these costs. Indeed, as will be seen, many of the factors do not involve any substantial cost considerations. The absence of any theory is reflected in the arbitrary manner in which the factors are presented. Rather, the emphasis here is on the consideration of purely empirical data concerning estimating accuracy. The essence of good empirical research is to .minimize the role of the researcher in interpreting the results of the study. Whilst space does not allow a full treatment of the material in this manner, the principle has been adopted as closely as possible to present results in an uncleaned and unbiased way. In most cases the evidence speaks for itself. The first part of the paper reviews most of the empirical evidence that we have located to date. Knowledge of any work done, but omitted here would be most welcome. The second part of the paper presents an analysis of some recently acquired data pertaining to this growing subject.

Effects of soluble dietary cellulose on specific growth rate, survival and digestive enzyme activities in three freshwater crayfish (Cherax) species

Three native freshwater crayfish Cherax species are farmed in Australia namely; Redclaw (Cherax quadricarinatus), Marron (C. tenuimanus), and Yabby (C. destructor). Lack of appropriate data on specific nutrient requirements for each of these species, however, has constrained development of specific formulated diets and hence current use of over-formulated feeds or expensive marine shrimp feeds, limit their profitability. A number of studies have investigated nutritional requirements in redclaw that have focused on replacing expensive fish meal in formulated feeds with non-protein, less expensive substitutes including plant based ingredients. Confirmation that freshwater crayfish possess endogenous cellulase genes, suggests their potential ability to utilize complex carbohydrates like cellulose as nutrient sources in their diet. To date, studies have been limited to only C. quadricarinatus and C. destructor and no studies have compared the relative ability of each species to utilize soluble cellulose in their diets. Individual feeding trials of late-juveniles of each species were conducted separately in an automated recirculating culture system over 12 week cycles. Animals were fed either a test diet (TD) that contained 20% soluble cellulose or a reference diet (RD) substituted with the same amount of corn starch. Water temperature, conductivity and pH were maintained at constant and optimum levels for each species. Animals were fed at 3% of their body weight twice daily and wet body weight was recorded bi-weekly. At the end of experiment, all animals were harvested, measured and midgut gland extracts assayed for alpha-amylase, total protease and cellulase activity levels. After the trial period, redclaw fed with RD showed significantly higher (p<0.05) specific growth rate (SGR) compare with animals fed the TD while SGR of marron and yabby fed the two diets were not significantly different (p<0.05). Cellulase expression levels in redclaw were not significantly different between diets. Marron and yabby showed significantly higher cellulase activity when fed the RD. Amylase and protease activity in all three species were significantly higher in the animals fed with RD (Table 1). These results indicate that test animals of all species can utilize starch better than dietary soluble cellulose in their diet and inclusion of 20% soluble cellulose in diets does not appear to have any significant negative effect on their growth rate but survival was impacted in C. quadricarinatus while not in C. tenuimanus or C. destructor.

Metabolomics coupled with proteomics advancing drug discovery toward more agile development of targeted combination therapies

To enhance the therapeutic efficacy and reduce the adverse effects of traditional Chinese medicine, practitioners often prescribe combinations of plant species and/or minerals, called formulae. Unfortunately, the working mechanisms of most of these compounds are difficult to determine and thus remain unknown. In an attempt to address the benefits of formulae based on current biomedical approaches, we analyzed the components of Yinchenhao Tang, a classical formula that has been shown to be clinically effective for treating hepatic injury syndrome. The three principal components of Yinchenhao Tang are Artemisia annua L., Gardenia jasminoids Ellis, and Rheum Palmatum L., whose major active ingredients are 6,7-dimethylesculetin (D), geniposide (G), and rhein (R), respectively. To determine the mechanisms underlying the efficacy of this formula, we conducted a systematic analysis of the therapeutic effects of the DGR compound using immunohistochemistry, biochemistry, metabolomics, and proteomics. Here, we report that the DGR combination exerts a more robust therapeutic effect than any one or two of the three individual compounds by hitting multiple targets in a rat model of hepatic injury. Thus, DGR synergistically causes intensified dynamic changes in metabolic biomarkers, regulates molecular networks through target proteins, has a synergistic/additive effect, and activates both intrinsic and extrinsic pathways.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cookbooks : promoting Indigenous foodways or reinforcing Western traditions?

This article examines the recent emergence of cookbooks written for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia. The cookbooks are health promotion initiatives, developed through a desire to improve the health status of Indigenous Australians. They focus on nutritious, family meals that can be cooked on a low budget. In this article, the authors argue that the cookbooks designed for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are developed within a Western paradigm of health and nutrition that subtly reinforces Western approaches to food and disregards traditional diets. While the authors recognize the value of the cookbooks as health promotion tools, they suggest that cookbooks centred around Indigenous foodways – with a focus on traditional ingredients and traditional cooking methods – may be more appropriate for improving the health of Indigenous people and helping Indigenous cultures to thrive. They advocate for a decolonizing approach to food and nutrition, that specifically promotes Indigenous traditions and culture, and incorporates traditional foodways into modern recipes.

Get real : the development, implementation and evaluation of an intervention for primary aged children with High Functioning Autism

Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder experience difficulty in communication and in understanding the social world which can have negative consequences for their relationships, in managing emotions, and generally dealing with the challenges of everyday life. This thesis examines the effectiveness of the Active and Reflective components of the Get REAL program through the assessment of the detailed coding of video-recorded observations and longitudinal quantitative analysis. The aim of Get REAL is to increase the social, emotional, and cognitive learning of children with High Functioning Autism (HFA). Get REAL is a group program designed specifically for use in inclusive primary school settings. The Get REAL program was designed in response to the mixed success of generalisation of learning to new contexts of existing social skills programs. The theoretical foundation of Get REAL is based upon pedagogical theory and learning theory to facilitate transfer of learning, combined with experiential, individualised, evaluative and organisational approaches. This thesis is by publication and consists of four refereed journal papers; 1 accepted for publication and 3 that are under review. Paper 1 describes the development and theoretical basis of the Get REAL program and provides detail of the program structure and learning cycle. The focus of Paper 1 reflects the first question of interest in the thesis which is about the extent to which learning derived from participation in the program can be generalised to other contexts. Participants are 16 children with HFA ranging in age from 8-13 years. Results provided support for the generalisability of learning from Get REAL to home and school evidenced by parent and teacher data collected pre and post participation in Get REAL. Following establishment of the generalisation of learning from Get REAL, Papers 2 and 3 focus on the Active and Reflective components of the program in order to examine how individual and group learning takes place. Participants (N = 12) in the program are video-taped during the Active and Reflective Sessions. Using identical coding protocols of video data, improvements in prosocial behaviour and diminishing of inappropriate behaviours were apparent with the exception of perspective taking. Data also revealed that 2 of the participants had atypical trajectories. An in-depth case study analysis was then conducted with these 2 participants in Paper 4. Data included reports from health care and education professionals within the school and externally (e.g., paediatrician) and identified the multi-faceted nature of care needed for children with comorbid diagnoses and extremely challenging family circumstances as a complex task to effect change. Results of this research support the effectiveness of the Get REAL program in promoting pro social behaviours such as improvements in engaging with others and emotional regulation, and in diminishing unwanted behaviours such as conduct problems. Further, the gains made by the participating children were found to be generalisable beyond Get REAL to home and other school settings. The research contained in the thesis adds to current knowledge about how learning can take place for children with HFA. Results show that an experiential learning framework with a focus on social cognition, together with explicit teaching, scaffolded with video feedback, are key ingredients for the generalisation of social learning to broader contexts.

The role of food regulation in promoting health

Food regulations are a series of laws and guidelines that focus on food that can be bought and sold in Australia. This system includes laws and regulations that address, food safety, food handling, what ingredients can go in a food, what a food can be called, what information needs to be included on a label, how a food can be advertised and promoted and developing a food industry that is both economically strong and supports the health of Australia's people and it's environment.

We need to talk : feminism and food (GOMA Harvest Picnic)

This collaborative, participatory work by feminist collective LEVEL took place at the Gallery of Modern Art (GOMA) as part of the official program of activities surrounding the exhibition 'Harvest', 2014. It took the form of a public picnic, where women and their friends were invited to share cooking recipes while also discussing the possible recipe for a gender revolution. Groups discussed their ideas, before a public reading of potential 'ingredients' and 'methods' outside the museum on the Maiwar Green.

Cytochrome p450 1b1, a new keystone in gene-environment interactions related to human head and neck cancer?

Alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking are major causes of head and neck cancers, and regional differences point to the importance of research into gene-environment interactions. Much interest has been focused on polymorphisms of CYP1A1 and of GSTM1 and GSTT1, but a number of studies have not demonstrated significant effects. This has mostly been ascribed to small sample sizes. In general, the impact of polymorphisms of metabolic enzymes appears inconsistent, with some reports of weak-to-moderate associations, and with others of no elevation of risks. The classical cytochrome P450 isoenzyme considered for metabolic activation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) is CYP1A1. A new member of the CYP1 family, CYP1B1, was cloned in 1994, currently representing the only member of the CYP1B subfamily. A number of single nucleotide polymorphisms of the CYP1B1 gene have been reported. The amino acid substitutions Val432Leu (CYP1B1*3) and Asn453Ser (CYP1B1*4), located in the heme binding domain of CYP1B1, appear as likely candidates to be linked with biological effects. CYP1B1 activates a wide range of PAH, aromatic and heterocyclic amines. Very recently, the CYP1B1 codon 432 polymorphism (CYP1B1*3) has been identified as a susceptibility factor in smoking-related head-and-neck squamous cell cancer. The impact of this polymorphic variant of CYP1B1 on cancer risk was also reflected by an association with the frequency of somatic mutations of the p53 gene. Combined genotype analysis of CYP1B1 and the glutathione transferases GSTM1 or GSTT1 has pointed to interactive effects. This provides new molecular evidence that tobacco smoke-specific compounds relevant to head and neck carcinogenesis are metabolically activated through CYP1B1 and is consistent with a major pathogenetic relevance of PAH as ingredients of tobacco smoke.

A new study on binder performance and formulation modification of anti-corrosive primer based on ethyl silicate resin

Zinc-rich ethyl silicate coatings are quite successful in protecting steel against corrosion under severe exposing conditions. In spite of providing excellent cathodic protection to steel structure after film curing, two-component zinc-rich ethyl silicate coatings have some limitations, one of which is inadequate shelf life as a result of in-can binder gelation. In this work, the preparation steps of ethyl silicate such as pre-hydrolysis, dehydration and organometallic reactions were surveyed and herein an approach towards understanding the cause and effect relationship of the use of ingredients is presented. The effects of water and catalytic acid dosages on gel time under accelerated conditions and the effect of alcoholic solvent order on the rate of the hydrolysis and dehydration reactions were studied via Karl-Fischer test determining the water content of hydrolysate. A thriving optimization in shelf life without any loss in physical–mechanical characteristics of the final film (e.g. hardness, adhesion, solvent and salt spray resistance) was obtained.