Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents,dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show thatgross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. Whenforeigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flowsare also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domesticagents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchmentin both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for differenttypes of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations drivingcapital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent withcrises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under thepresence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.

International capital flows and credit market imperfections: A tale of two frictions

The financial crisis of 2007-08 has underscored the importance of adverse selection in financialmarkets. This friction has been mostly neglected by macroeconomic models of financialimperfections, however, which have focused almost exclusively on the effects of limited pledgeability.In this paper, we fill this gap by developing a standard growth model with adverseselection. Our main results are that, by fostering unproductive investment, adverse selection:(i) leads to an increase in the economy s equilibrium interest rate, and; (ii) it generates a negativewedge between the marginal return to investment and the equilibrium interest rate. Underfinancial integration, we show how this translates into excessive capital inflows and endogenouscycles. We also extend our model to the more general case in which adverse selection and limitedpledgeability coexist. We conclude that both frictions complement one another and show thatlimited pledgeability exacerbates the effects of adverse selection.

Anomalous roughening of Hele-Shaw flows with quenched disorder

The kinetic roughening of a stable oil-air interface moving in a Hele-Shaw cell that contains a quenched columnar disorder (tracks) has been studied. A capillary effect is responsible for the dynamic evolution of the resulting rough interface, which exhibits anomalous scaling. The three independent exponents needed to characterize the anomalous scaling are determined experimentally. The anomalous scaling is explained in terms of the initial acceleration and subsequent deceleration of the interface tips in the tracks coupled by mass conservation. A phenomenological model that reproduces the measured global and local exponents is introduced.

Systematic weakly nonlinear analysis of interfacial instabilities in Hele-Shaw flows

We develop a systematic method to derive all orders of mode couplings in a weakly nonlinear approach to the dynamics of the interface between two immiscible viscous fluids in a Hele-Shaw cell. The method is completely general: it applies to arbitrary geometry and driving. Here we apply it to the channel geometry driven by gravity and pressure. The finite radius of convergence of the mode-coupling expansion is found. Calculation up to third-order couplings is done, which is necessary to account for the time-dependent Saffman-Taylor finger solution and the case of zero viscosity contrast. The explicit results provide relevant analytical information about the role that the viscosity contrast and the surface tension play in the dynamics of the system. We finally check the quantitative validity of different orders of approximation and a resummation scheme against a physically relevant, exact time-dependent solution. The agreement between the low-order approximations and the exact solution is excellent within the radius of convergence, and is even reasonably good beyond this radius.

Phase-field model of Hele-Shaw flows in the high-viscosity contrast regime

A one-sided phase-field model is proposed to study the dynamics of unstable interfaces of Hele-Shaw flows in the high viscosity contrast regime. The corresponding macroscopic equations are obtained by means of an asymptotic expansion from the phase-field model. Numerical integrations of the phase-field model in a rectangular Hele-Shaw cell reproduce finger competition with the final evolution to a steady-state finger.

Particle dispersion in synthetic turbulent flows

We study particle dispersion advected by a synthetic turbulent flow from a Lagrangian perspective and focus on the two-particle and cluster dispersion by the flow. It has been recently reported that Richardson¿s law for the two-particle dispersion can stem from different dispersion mechanisms, and can be dominated by either diffusive or ballistic events. The nature of the Richardson dispersion depends on the parameters of our flow and is discussed in terms of the values of a persistence parameter expressing the relative importance of the two above-mentioned mechanisms. We support this analysis by studying the distribution of interparticle distances, the relative velocity correlation functions, as well as the relative trajectories.

Phase-field model for Hele-Shaw flows with arabitrary contrast II: numerical approach

We present a phase-field model for the dynamics of the interface between two inmiscible fluids with arbitrary viscosity contrast in a rectangular Hele-Shaw cell. With asymptotic matching techniques we check the model to yield the right Hele-Shaw equations in the sharp-interface limit, and compute the corrections to these equations to first order in the interface thickness. We also compute the effect of such corrections on the linear dispersion relation of the planar interface. We discuss in detail the conditions on the interface thickness to control the accuracy and convergence of the phase-field model to the limiting Hele-Shaw dynamics. In particular, the convergence appears to be slower for high viscosity contrasts.

Interface dynamics in Hele-Shaw flows with centrifugal forces. Preventing cusp singularities with rotation

A class of exact solutions of Hele-Shaw flows without surface tension in a rotating cell is reported. We show that the interplay between injection and rotation modifies the scenario of formation of finite-time cusp singularities. For a subclass of solutions, we show that, for any given initial condition, there exists a critical rotation rate above which cusp formation is suppressed. We also find an exact sufficient condition to avoid cusps simultaneously for all initial conditions within the above subclass.

Langevin approach to generate synthetic turbulent flows

We present an analytical scheme, easily implemented numerically, to generate synthetic Gaussian turbulent flows by using a linear Langevin equation, where the noise term acts as a stochastic stirring force. The characteristic parameters of the velocity field are well introduced, in particular the kinematic viscosity and the spectrum of energy. As an application, the diffusion of a passive scalar is studied for two different energy spectra. Numerical results are compared favorably with analytical calculations.

Three-dimensional aspects of fluid flows in channels. II. Effects of meniscus and thin film regimes on viscous fingers

We perform a three-dimensional study of steady state viscous fingers that develop in linear channels. By means of a three-dimensional lattice-Boltzmann scheme that mimics the full macroscopic equations of motion of the fluid momentum and order parameter, we study the effect of the thickness of the channel in two cases. First, for total displacement of the fluids in the channel thickness direction, we find that the steady state finger is effectively two-dimensional and that previous two-dimensional results can be recovered by taking into account the effect of a curved meniscus across the channel thickness as a contribution to surface stresses. Second, when a thin film develops in the channel thickness direction, the finger narrows with increasing channel aspect ratio in agreement with experimental results. The effect of the thin film renders the problem three-dimensional and results deviate from the two-dimensional prediction.

Three-dimensional aspects of fluid flows in channels. I. Meniscus and thin film regimes

We study the forced displacement of a fluid-fluid interface in a three-dimensional channel formed by two parallel solid plates. Using a lattice-Boltzmann method, we study situations in which a slip velocity arises from diffusion effects near the contact line. The difference between the slip and channel velocities determines whether the interface advances as a meniscus or a thin film of fluid is left adhered to the plates. We find that this effect is controlled by the capillary and Péclet numbers. We estimate the crossover from a meniscus to a thin film and find good agreement with numerical results. The penetration regime is examined in the steady state. We find that the occupation fraction of the advancing finger relative to the channel thickness is controlled by the capillary number and the viscosity contrast between the fluids. For high viscosity contrast, lattice-Boltzmann results agree with previous results. For zero viscosity contrast, we observe remarkably narrow fingers. The shape of the finger is found to be universal.

Self-similarity properties of natural images resemble those of turbulent flows

We show that the statistics of an edge type variable in natural images exhibits self-similarity properties which resemble those of local energy dissipation in turbulent flows. Our results show that self-similarity and extended self-similarity hold remarkably for the statistics of the local edge variance, and that the very same models can be used to predict all of the associated exponents. These results suggest using natural images as a laboratory for testing more elaborate scaling models of interest for the statistical description of turbulent flows. The properties we have exhibited are relevant for the modeling of the early visual system: They should be included in models designed for the prediction of receptive fields.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.