Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Image processing algorithm for the identification of Martian dust devil tracks in MOC and HiRISE images

This paper presents a method for automatic identification of dust devils tracks in MOC NA and HiRISE images of Mars. The method is based on Mathematical Morphology and is able to successfully process those images despite their difference in spatial resolution or size of the scene. A dataset of 200 images from the surface of Mars representative of the diversity of those track features was considered for developing, testing and evaluating our method, confronting the outputs with reference images made manually. Analysis showed a mean accuracy of about 92%. We also give some examples on how to use the results to get information about dust devils, namelly mean width, main direction of movement and coverage per scene. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An algorithm for arranging response surface designs in small blocks

We consider the problem of blocking response surface designs when the block sizes are prespecified to control variation efficiently and the treatment set is chosen independently of the block structure. We show how the loss of information due to blocking is related to scores defined by Mead and present an interchange algorithm based on scores to improve a given blocked design. Examples illustrating the performance of the algorithm are given and some comparisons with other designs are made. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards the prediction of essential genes by integration of network topology, cellular localization and biological process information

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Intraspecific evolution of Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA associated with soybean and rice in Brazil based on polymorphisms at the ITS-5.8S rDNA operon

Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA causes leaf blight on soybean and rice. Despite the fact that R. solani AG-1 IA is a major pathogen affecting soybean and rice in Brazil and elsewhere in the world, little information is available on its genetic diversity and evolution. This study was an attempt to reveal the origin, and the patterns of movement and amplification of epidemiologically significant genotypes of R. solani AG-1 IA from soybean and rice in Brazil. For inferring intraspecific evolution of R. solani AG-1 IA sampled from soybean and rice, networks of ITS-5.8S rDNA sequencing haplotypes were built using the statistical parsimony algorithm from Clement et al. (2000) Molecular Ecology 9: 1657-1660. Higher haplotype diversity (Nei M 1987, Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Columbia University Press, New york: 512p.) was observed for the Brazilian soybean sample of R. solani AG-1 IA (0.827) in comparison with the rest of the world sample (0.431). Within the south-central American clade (3-2), four haplotypes of R. solani AG-1 IA from Mato Grosso, one from Tocantins, one from Maranhao, and one from Cuba occupied the tips of the network, indicating recent origin. The putative ancestral haplotypes had probably originated either from Mato Grosso or Maranhao States. While 16 distinct haplotypes were found in a sample of 32 soybean isolates of the pathogen, the entire rice sample (n=20) was represented by a single haplotype (haplotype 5), with a worldwide distribution. The results from nested-cladistic analysis indicated restricted gene flow with isolation by distance (or restricted dispersal by distance in nonsexual species) for the south-central American clade (3-2), mainly composed by soybean haplotypes.

Application of ontologies in peer-to-peer database with routing queries based on ant colony algorithm

A significant set of information stored in different databases around the world, can be shared through peer-topeer databases. With that, is obtained a large base of knowledge, without the need for large investments because they are used existing databases, as well as the infrastructure in place. However, the structural characteristics of peer-topeer, makes complex the process of finding such information. On the other side, these databases are often heterogeneous in their schemas, but semantically similar in their content. A good peer-to-peer databases systems should allow the user access information from databases scattered across the network and receive only the information really relate to your topic of interest. This paper proposes to use ontologies in peer-to-peer database queries to represent the semantics inherent to the data. The main contribution of this work is enable integration between heterogeneous databases, improve the performance of such queries and use the algorithm of optimization Ant Colony to solve the problem of locating information on peer-to-peer networks, which presents an improve of 18% in results. © 2011 IEEE.

Architecture for peer-to-peer databases with routing queries using ant colony algorithm and semantic support

In a peer-to-peer network, the nodes interact with each other by sharing resources, services and information. Many applications have been developed using such networks, being a class of such applications are peer-to-peer databases. The peer-to-peer databases systems allow the sharing of unstructured data, being able to integrate data from several sources, without the need of large investments, because they are used existing repositories. However, the high flexibility and dynamicity of networks the network, as well as the absence of a centralized management of information, becomes complex the process of locating information among various participants in the network. In this context, this paper presents original contributions by a proposed architecture for a routing system that uses the Ant Colony algorithm to optimize the search for desired information supported by ontologies to add semantics to shared data, enabling integration among heterogeneous databases and the while seeking to reduce the message traffic on the network without causing losses in the amount of responses, confirmed by the improve of 22.5% in this amount. © 2011 IEEE.

BBA: A binary bat algorithm for feature selection

Feature selection aims to find the most important information from a given set of features. As this task can be seen as an optimization problem, the combinatorial growth of the possible solutions may be in-viable for a exhaustive search. In this paper we propose a new nature-inspired feature selection technique based on the bats behaviour, which has never been applied to this context so far. The wrapper approach combines the power of exploration of the bats together with the speed of the Optimum-Path Forest classifier to find the set of features that maximizes the accuracy in a validating set. Experiments conducted in five public datasets have demonstrated that the proposed approach can outperform some well-known swarm-based techniques. © 2012 IEEE.

Functional Redundancy and Complementarities of Seed Dispersal by the Last Neotropical Megafrugivores

Background: Functional redundancy has been debated largely in ecology and conservation, yet we lack detailed empirical studies on the roles of functionally similar species in ecosystem function. Large bodied frugivores may disperse similar plant species and have strong impact on plant recruitment in tropical forests. The two largest frugivores in the neotropics, tapirs (Tapirus terrestris) and muriquis (Brachyteles arachnoides) are potential candidates for functional redundancy on seed dispersal effectiveness. Here we provide a comparison of the quantitative, qualitative and spatial effects on seed dispersal by these megafrugivores in a continuous Brazilian Atlantic forest. Methodology/Principal Findings: We found a low overlap of plant species dispersed by both muriquis and tapirs. A group of 35 muriquis occupied an area of 850 ha and dispersed 5 times more plant species, and 13 times more seeds than 22 tapirs living in the same area. Muriquis dispersed 2.4 times more seeds in any random position than tapirs. This can be explained mainly because seed deposition by muriquis leaves less empty space than tapirs. However, tapirs are able to disperse larger seeds than muriquis and move them into sites not reached by primates, such as large forest gaps, open areas and fragments nearby. Based on published information we found 302 plant species that are dispersed by at least one of these megafrugivores in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Conclusions/Significance: Our study showed that both megafrugivores play complementary rather than redundant roles as seed dispersers. Although tapirs disperse fewer seeds and species than muriquis, they disperse larger-seeded species and in places not used by primates. The selective extinction of these megafrugivores will change the spatial seed rain they generate and may have negative effects on the recruitment of several plant species, particularly those with large seeds that have muriquis and tapirs as the last living seed dispersers. © 2013 Bueno et al.

Binary Bat Algorithm for Feature Selection

Feature selection aims to find the most important information to save computational efforts and data storage. We formulated this task as a combinatorial optimization problem since the exponential growth of possible solutions makes an exhaustive search infeasible. In this work, we propose a new nature-inspired feature selection technique based on bats behavior, namely, binary bat algorithm The wrapper approach combines the power of exploration of the bats together with the speed of the optimum-path forest classifier to find a better data representation. Experiments in public datasets have shown that the proposed technique can indeed improve the effectiveness of the optimum-path forest and outperform some well-known swarm-based techniques. © 2013 Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Software for calculation of reservoir active capacity with the sequent-peak algorithm

It is presented a software developed with Delphi programming language to compute the reservoir's annual regulated active storage, based on the sequent-peak algorithm. Mathematical models used for that purpose generally require extended hydrological series. Usually, the analysis of those series is performed with spreadsheets or graphical representations. Based on that, it was developed a software for calculation of reservoir active capacity. An example calculation is shown by 30-years (from 1977 to 2009) monthly mean flow historical data, from Corrente River, located at São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. As an additional tool, an interface was developed to manage water resources, helping to manipulate data and to point out information that it would be of interest to the user. Moreover, with that interface irrigation districts where water consumption is higher can be analyzed as a function of specific seasonal water demands situations. From a practical application, it is possible to conclude that the program provides the calculation originally proposed. It was designed to keep information organized and retrievable at any time, and to show simulation on seasonal water demands throughout the year, contributing with the elements of study concerning reservoir projects. This program, with its functionality, is an important tool for decision making in the water resources management.

Frugivory and seed dispersal by tapirs: an insight on their ecological role

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Automatic Indexing and Information Visualization: A Study Based on Paraconsistent Logic

This paper reports a research to evaluate the potential and the effects of use of annotated Paraconsistent logic in automatic indexing. This logic attempts to deal with contradictions, concerned with studying and developing inconsistency-tolerant systems of logic. This logic, being flexible and containing logical states that go beyond the dichotomies yes and no, permits to advance the hypothesis that the results of indexing could be better than those obtained by traditional methods. Interactions between different disciplines, as information retrieval, automatic indexing, information visualization, and nonclassical logics were considered in this research. From the methodological point of view, an algorithm for treatment of uncertainty and imprecision, developed under the Paraconsistent logic, was used to modify the values of the weights assigned to indexing terms of the text collections. The tests were performed on an information visualization system named Projection Explorer (PEx), created at Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science (ICMC - USP Sao Carlos), with available source code. PEx uses traditional vector space model to represent documents of a collection. The results were evaluated by criteria built in the information visualization system itself, and demonstrated measurable gains in the quality of the displays, confirming the hypothesis that the use of the para-analyser under the conditions of the experiment has the ability to generate more effective clusters of similar documents. This is a point that draws attention, since the constitution of more significant clusters can be used to enhance information indexing and retrieval. It can be argued that the adoption of non-dichotomous (non-exclusive) parameters provides new possibilities to relate similar information.

MR-Radix: a multi-relational data mining algorithm

Background: Once multi-relational approach has emerged as an alternative for analyzing structured data such as relational databases, since they allow applying data mining in multiple tables directly, thus avoiding expensive joining operations and semantic losses, this work proposes an algorithm with multi-relational approach. Methods: Aiming to compare traditional approach performance and multi-relational for mining association rules, this paper discusses an empirical study between PatriciaMine - an traditional algorithm - and its corresponding multi-relational proposed, MR-Radix. Results: This work showed advantages of the multi-relational approach in performance over several tables, which avoids the high cost for joining operations from multiple tables and semantic losses. The performance provided by the algorithm MR-Radix shows faster than PatriciaMine, despite handling complex multi-relational patterns. The utilized memory indicates a more conservative growth curve for MR-Radix than PatriciaMine, which shows the increase in demand of frequent items in MR-Radix does not result in a significant growth of utilized memory like in PatriciaMine. Conclusion: The comparative study between PatriciaMine and MR-Radix confirmed efficacy of the multi-relational approach in data mining process both in terms of execution time and in relation to memory usage. Besides that, the multi-relational proposed algorithm, unlike other algorithms of this approach, is efficient for use in large relational databases.