Effects of seasonally varying temperature and salinity on the dynamics of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)

Sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) are an economically significant parasite in salmonid aquaculture. They exhibit temperature-dependent development rates and salinity-dependent mortality, which can greatly impact sea lice population dynamics, but no deterministic models have incorporated these seasonal variables. To understand how seasonality affects sea lice population dynamics, I derive a delay differential equation model with temperature and salinity dependence. I find that peak reproductive output in Newfoundland and British Columbia differs by four months. A sensitivity analysis shows sea lice abundance is most sensitive to variation in mean annual water temperature and salinity, whereas it is lease sensitive to infection rate. Additionally, I investigate the effects of production cycle timing on sea lice management and find that optimal production cycle start times are between the 281st and 337th days of the year in Newfoundland. I also demonstrate that adjusting follow-up treatment timing in response to temperature can improve treatment regimes. My results suggest that effective sea lice management requires consideration of local temperature and salinity patterns.

Drivers of Dengue Within-Host Dynamics and Virulence Evolution

Dengue is an important vector-borne virus that infects on the order of 400 million individuals per year. Infection with one of the virus's four serotypes (denoted DENV-1 to 4) may be silent, result in symptomatic dengue 'breakbone' fever, or develop into the more severe dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Extensive research has therefore focused on identifying factors that influence dengue infection outcomes. It has been well-documented through epidemiological studies that DHF is most likely to result from a secondary heterologous infection, and that individuals experiencing a DENV-2 or DENV-3 infection typically are more likely to present with more severe dengue disease than those individuals experiencing a DENV-1 or DENV-4 infection. However, a mechanistic understanding of how these risk factors affect disease outcomes, and further, how the virus's ability to evolve these mechanisms will affect disease severity patterns over time, is lacking. In the second chapter of my dissertation, I formulate mechanistic mathematical models of primary and secondary dengue infections that describe how the dengue virus interacts with the immune response and the results of this interaction on the risk of developing severe dengue disease. I show that only the innate immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a primary infection whereas the adaptive immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a secondary dengue infection. I then add to these models a quantitative measure of disease severity that assumes immunopathology, and analyze the effectiveness of virological indicators of disease severity. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I then statistically fit these mathematical models to viral load data of dengue patients to understand the mechanisms that drive variation in viral load. I specifically consider the roles that immune status, clinical disease manifestation, and serotype may play in explaining viral load variation observed across the patients. With this analysis, I show that there is statistical support for the theory of antibody dependent enhancement in the development of severe disease in secondary dengue infections and that there is statistical support for serotype-specific differences in viral infectivity rates, with infectivity rates of DENV-2 and DENV-3 exceeding those of DENV-1. In the fourth chapter of my dissertation, I integrate these within-host models with a vector-borne epidemiological model to understand the potential for virulence evolution in dengue. Critically, I show that dengue is expected to evolve towards intermediate virulence, and that the optimal virulence of the virus depends strongly on the number of serotypes that co-circulate. Together, these dissertation chapters show that dengue viral load dynamics provide insight into the within-host mechanisms driving differences in dengue disease patterns and that these mechanisms have important implications for dengue virulence evolution.

Investigating the role of target cell availability in the pathogenesis of feline immunodeficiency virus infection

Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a naturally occurring lentivirus of domestic cats, which shares many similarities with its human counterpart, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). FIV infects its main target cell, the CD4+ T lymphocyte, via interactions with its primary receptor CD134 (an activation marker expressed on activated CD4+ T lymphocytes), and, the chemokine receptor CXCR4. According to the different ways in which FIV isolates interact with CD134, FIV may be categorised into two groups. The first group contains strains that tend to dominate during the earlier phase of infection, such as GL8 and CPG41. These strains are characterized by their requirement for an additional interaction with the second cysteine rich domain (CRD2) of the CD134 molecule and are classified as “CRD2-dependent” strains. The second group, on the other hand, contains either laboratory-adapted isolates or isolates that emerge after several years of infection, such as PPR or the GL8 variants that emerged in cats 6 years post experimental infection and were studied in this thesis. These isolates are designated “CRD2-independent” as they can infect target cells without interacting with CRD2 of the CD134 molecule. This study provides the first evidence that FIV compartmentalisation is related to FIV-CD134 usage and the tissue availability of CD134+ target cells. In tissue compartments containing high levels of CD134+ cells such as peripheral blood and lymph nodes, CRD2-dependent viruses predominated, whereas CRD2-independent viruses predominated in compartments with fewer CD134+ cells, such as the thymus. The dynamics of CD4+CD134+ T lymphocytes at different stages of FIV infection were also described. The levels of CD4+CD134+ T lymphocytes, which were very high in the early phase, gradually decreased in the later phase of infection. The dynamics of CD4+CD134+ T lymphocyte numbers appeared to correlate with FIV tropism switching, as more CRD2-independent viruses were isolated from cats in the late phase of infection. Moreover, it was observed that pseudotypes bearing Envs of CRD2-dependent variants infected CD134+ target cells more efficiently than pseudotypes bearing Envs of CRD2-independent variants, confirming the selective advantage of CRD2-dependent variants in environments with high levels of CD134+ target cells. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that target cell types and numbers, as well as their dynamics, play important roles in the selection and expansion of FIV variants within the viral quasispecies. Improved understanding of the roles of target cells in FIV transmission and pathogenesis will provide important information required for the development of an improved, more successful protective FIV vaccine and will provide insight into the development of effective vaccines against other lentiviral infections such as HIV.

The dynamics of professions and development of new roles in public services organizations: the case of modern matrons in the English NHS

This study contributes to research examining how professional autonomy and hierarchy impacts upon the implementation of policy designed to improve the quality of public services delivery through the introduction of new managerial roles. It is based on an empirical examination of a new role for nurses – modern matrons – who are expected by policy-makers to drive organizational change aimed at tackling health care acquired infections (HCAI) in the National Health Service (NHS) within England. First, we show that the changing role of nurses associated with their ongoing professionalization limits the influence of modern matrons over their own ranks in tackling HCAI. Second, the influence of modern matrons over doctors is limited. Third, government policy itself appears inconsistent in its support for the role of modern matrons. The attempts of modern matrons to tackle HCAI appear more effective where infection control activity is situated in professional practice and where modern matrons integrate aspirations for improved infection control within mainstream audit mechanisms in a health care organization.

Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

Experimental Infection of Culex Annulirostris, Culex Gelidus, and Aedes Vigilax With a Yellow Fever/Japanese Encephalitis Virus Vaccine Chimera (Chimerivax TM-JE)

Australian mosquitoes from which Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) has been recovered (Culex annulirostris, Culex gelidus, and Aedes vigilax) were assessed for their ability to be infected with the ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, with yellow fever vaccine virus 17D (YF 17D) from which the backbone of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine is derived and with JEV-Nakayama. None of the mosquitoes became infected after being fed orally with 6.1 log(10) plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, which is greater than the peak viremia in vaccinees (mean peak viremia = 4.8 PFU/mL, range = 0-30 PFU/mL of 0.9 days mean duration, range = 0-11 days). Some members of all three species of mosquito became infected when fed on JEV-Nakayama, but only Ae. vigilax was infected when fed on YF 17D. The results suggest that none of these three species of mosquito are likely to set up secondary cycles of transmission of ChimeriVax-JE in Australia after feeding on a viremic vaccinee.