1000 resultados para Incerteza paramétrica


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Esta dissertação tem como principal objectivo comparar os métodos propostos pelo Eurocódigo 2, através de uma análise paramétrica dos efeitos de segunda ordem em pilares de betão armado. Os métodos estudados foram o método simplificado baseado na Curvatura Nominal e o Método Geral. Através da comparação destes dois métodos verificou-se se o dimensionamento efectuado para o primeiro método é correcto e se encontra do lado da segurança. Para este efeito são analisado noventa e seis pórticos, onde setenta e dois são pórticos simples e vinte e quatro são pórticos parede. Todos os pórticos apresentam uma estrutura simples, constituída por dois elementos verticais, pilar ou parede, e um elemento horizontal, viga. Os noventa e seis pórticos são divididos em dois grupos. Um grupo em que a ligação entre pilar viga é rotulada e o outro grupo onde a ligação é rígida. Dentro de cada grupo é definido oito conjuntos de pórticos cuja diferença reside na percentagem de carga que cada um dos elementos verticais recebe, sendo estas características iguais para os dois grupos. Cada conjunto é constituído por seis pórticos em que é variada a esbelteza. Em todos os modelos analisados manteve-se as mesmas características de materiais e acções. Efectuou-se um primeiro dimensionamento através do método baseado na curvatura nominal, onde obteve-se os esforços e armaduras, que serão utilizados para a modelação no método geral. Este método geral, consiste numa análise não linear, e é efectuado num programa de análise não linear de elementos finitos, Atena. A modelação efectuou-se da seguinte forma: aplicou-se numa primeira fase a totalidade da carga vertical aplicada à estrutura de forma incremental, e quando esta atingiu a carga de dimensionamento, aplicou-se a carga horizontal também de forma incremental até ao colapso da estrutura. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, pode concluir-se que o dimensionamento efectuado pelo método simplificado está do lado da segurança, sendo em alguns casos em que possui pilares esbeltos demasiado conservativo, onde obteve-se mais 200% de carga horizontal.

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In Brazil and around the world, oil companies are looking for, and expected development of new technologies and processes that can increase the oil recovery factor in mature reservoirs, in a simple and inexpensive way. So, the latest research has developed a new process called Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) which was classified as a gas injection IOR. The process, which is undergoing pilot testing in the field, is being extensively studied through physical scale models and core-floods laboratory, due to high oil recoveries in relation to other gas injection IOR. This process consists of injecting gas at the top of a reservoir through horizontal or vertical injector wells and displacing the oil, taking advantage of natural gravity segregation of fluids, to a horizontal producer well placed at the bottom of the reservoir. To study this process it was modeled a homogeneous reservoir and a model of multi-component fluid with characteristics similar to light oil Brazilian fields through a compositional simulator, to optimize the operational parameters. The model of the process was simulated in GEM (CMG, 2009.10). The operational parameters studied were the gas injection rate, the type of gas injection, the location of the injector and production well. We also studied the presence of water drive in the process. The results showed that the maximum vertical spacing between the two wells, caused the maximum recovery of oil in GAGD. Also, it was found that the largest flow injection, it obtained the largest recovery factors. This parameter controls the speed of the front of the gas injected and determined if the gravitational force dominates or not the process in the recovery of oil. Natural gas had better performance than CO2 and that the presence of aquifer in the reservoir was less influential in the process. In economic analysis found that by injecting natural gas is obtained more economically beneficial than CO2

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After the decline of production from natural energy of the reservoir, the methods of enhanced oil recovery, which methods result from the application of special processes such as chemical injection, miscible gases, thermal and others can be applied. The advanced recovery method with alternating - CO2 injection WAG uses the injection of water and gas, normally miscible that will come in contact with the stock oil. In Brazil with the discovery of pre-salt layer that gas gained prominence. The amount of CO2 present in the oil produced in the pre-salt layer, as well as some reservoirs is one of the challenges to be overcome in relation to sustainable production once this gas needs to be processed in some way. Many targets for CO2 are proposed by researchers to describe some alternatives to the use of CO2 gas produced such as enhanced recovery, storage depleted fields, salt caverns storage and marketing of CO2 even in plants. The largest oil discoveries in Brazil have recently been made by Petrobras in the pre -salt layer located between the states of Santa Catarina and Espírito Santo, where he met large volumes of light oil with a density of approximately 28 ° API, low acidity and low sulfur content. This oil that has a large amount of dissolved CO2 and thus a pioneering solution for the fate of this gas comes with an advanced recovery. The objective of this research is to analyze which parameters had the greatest influence on the enhanced recovery process. The simulations were performed using the "GEM" module of the Computer Modelling Group, with the aim of studying the advanced recovery method in question. For this work, semi - synthetic models were used with reservoir and fluid data that can be extrapolated to practical situations in the Brazilian Northeast. The results showed the influence of the alternating injection of water and gas on the recovery factor and flow rate of oil production process, when compared to primary recovery and continuous water injection or continuous gas injection

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A significant fraction of the hydrocarbon reserves in the world is formed by heavy oils. From the thermal methods used to recovery these resources, Steamflooding has been one of the main economically viable alternatives. In Brazil, this technology is widely used by Petrobras in Northeast fields. Latent heat carried by steam heats the oil in the reservoir, reducing its viscosity and facilitating the production. In the last years, an alternative more and more used by the oil industry to increase the efficiency of this mechanism has been the addition of solvents. When co-injected with steam, the vaporized solvent condenses in the cooler regions of the reservoir and mixes with the oil, creating a low viscosity zone between the steam and the heavy oil. The mobility of the displaced fluid is then improved, resulting in an increase of oil recovery. To better understand this improved oil recovery method and investigate its applicability in reservoirs with properties similar to those found in Potiguar Basin, a numerical study was done to analyze the influence of some operational parameters (steam injection rate, injected solvent volume and solvent type) on oil recovery. Simulations were performed in STARS ("Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator"), a CMG ("Computer Modelling Group") program, version 2009.10. It was found that solvents addition to the injected steam not only anticipated the heated oil bank arrival to the producer well, but also increased the oil recovery. Lower cold water equivalent volumes were required to achieve the same oil recoveries from the models that injected only steam. Furthermore, much of the injected solvent was produced with the oil from the reservoir

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The present research aims at contributing to the area of detection and diagnosis of failure through the proposal of a new system architecture of detection and isolation of failures (FDI, Fault Detection and Isolation). The proposed architecture presents innovations related to the way the physical values monitored are linked to the FDI system and, as a consequence, the way the failures are detected, isolated and classified. A search for mathematical tools able to satisfy the objectives of the proposed architecture has pointed at the use of the Kalman Filter and its derivatives EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) and UKF (Unscented Kalman Filter). The use of the first one is efficient when the monitored process presents a linear relation among its physical values to be monitored and its out-put. The other two are proficient in case this dynamics is no-linear. After that, a short comparative of features and abilities in the context of failure detection concludes that the UFK system is a better alternative than the EKF one to compose the architecture of the FDI system proposed in case of processes of no-linear dynamics. The results shown in the end of the research refer to the linear and no-linear industrial processes. The efficiency of the proposed architecture may be observed since it has been applied to simulated and real processes. To conclude, the contributions of this thesis are found in the end of the text

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The considered work presents the procedure for evaluation of the uncertainty related to the calibration of flow measurers and to BS&W. It is about a new method of measurement purposed by the conceptual project of the laboratory LAMP, at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, that intends to determine the conventional true value of the BS&W from the total height of the liquid column in the auditor tank, hydrostatic pressure exerted by the liquid column, local gravity, specific mass of the water and the specific mass of the oil, and, to determine the flow, from total height of liquid column and transfer time. The calibration uses a automatized system of monitoration and data acquisition of some necessary largnesses to determine of flow and BS&W, allowing a better trustworthiness of through measurements

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In this work we study the Hidden Markov Models with finite as well as general state space. In the finite case, the forward and backward algorithms are considered and the probability of a given observed sequence is computed. Next, we use the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters. In the general case, the kernel estimators are used and to built a sequence of estimators that converge in L1-norm to the density function of the observable process

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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O conceito de risco vem tendo uso crescente no entendimento das relações entre saúde e ambiente. Uma revisão recente do seu emprego¹ mostrou que o risco é próprio da condição humana e que a exclusão da incerteza promove a manutenção do status quo. O problema que se coloca é como propor ações de melhoria na saúde ambiental sob os pressupostos da dúvida e da incerteza que caracterizam a condição de risco. Como proposta de solução, a obra de H. Arendt² prestou-se ao exame dos significados e das implicações da incerteza no campo do pensamento e no campo da ação. Os resultados mostram que o risco se insere na lacuna construída entre o passado e o futuro. Quando esta lacuna passa a ser entendida como espaço de possibilidades, a incerteza, produzida no campo do pensamento fomenta a liberdade e a participação no campo da ação. A valorização da subjetividade e o exercício do juízo promovem a configuração de novos contextos e de novas possibilidades de ação, tanto em relação à natureza como em relação aos homens. Este conhecimento novo se insere na lacuna entre passado e futuro e realimenta o processo. Conclui-se que as ações de promoção da saúde devem estar aptas a aceitar resultados não necessariamente idealizados. Na ação livre não existem certezas e a sua relevância não está nos fins que se possa estabelecer, mas no processo do seu exercício.

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In view of the limited number of drill holes, interpolation of the data becomes a relatively complex task. In this study, we sought to make estimates associated with lithological types, since a quantification based on lithology can be extracted from the empty spaces in the sampling. For example, QBarton is always below the median of the biotitic litotype, information which can be used in the elaboration of geostatistical models in situations where samples are lacking. To overcome bias in the data, required by geostatistical conceptualization, we worked with the residuals obtained from the adjustment of a surface and the observed values, for the variographic analysis. The final results made possible a more optimized evaluation of the final costs required for the construction project.

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The great diversity of materials that characterizes the urban environment determines a structure of mixed classes in a classification of multiespectral images. In that sense, it is important to define an appropriate classification system using a non parametric classifier, that allows incorporating non spectral (such as texture) data to the process. They also allow analyzing the uncertainty associated to each class from the output alues of the network calculated in relation to each class. Considering these properties, an experiment was carried out. This experiment consisted in the application of an Artificial Neural Network aiming at the classification of the urban land cover of Presidente Prudente and the analysis of the uncertainty in the representation of the mapped thematic classes. The results showed that it is possible to discriminate the variations in the urban land cover through the application of an Artificial Neural Network. It was also possible to visualize the spatial variation of the uncertainty in the attribution of classes of urban land cover from the generated representations. The class characterized by a defined pattern as intermediary related to the impermeability of the urban soil presented larger ambiguity degree and, therefore, larger mixture.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)