Challenges in Earth sciences: the 21st century

The 21st century poses many challenges for global sustainability. Among them, most importantly, the human race will encounter scarcity of raw materials and conventional energy resources. And, India may have to take the brunt of these problems as it is going to be the most populated region of the world with concomitant increase in energy demand and requirement of other resources. India will be the testing ground for introducing newer ways of green technology and innovative principles of resource management and utilization. With the vagaries of potential climate change gathering clouds in the background, Earth sciences will have a special and predominant role in guiding the society in prioritizing our resource discovery, utilization and their consumption and the upkeep of environment. On the fundamental level, Earth sciences are going through a most exciting phase of development as a born-again science. Technological breakthroughs including the satellite-based observations augur well for gaining new insights into Earth processes. A set of exciting fundamental problems that are globally identified will set the stage for an exhilarating period of new discoveries. Improvements in numerical and computer-based techniques will assist in modelling of Earth processes to unprecedented levels. India will have to take special effort in improving the existing experimentation facilities in the Earth science departments of the country, and also the general level of Earth science education to meet the global standards. This article presents an Earth science vision for the 21st century in an Indian context.

Synthesis, structure and IR absorption studies of LnBaCuCoO(5) (Ln equal earth) oxides

A series of oxides LnBaCuCoO(5) (Ln = Pr, Nd, Sm, Dy, Gd, Ho and Er) have been synthesized by ceramic method. The oxides crystallize in a tetragonal structure, isostructural to YBaCuCoO5. All the oxides in the series are semiconducting. IR spectra of these oxides show distinct absorption bands at 630 cm(-1), 550 cm(-1) and 330 cm(-1) which are assigned to E, A(2) and A(1) modes respectively. Doping of holes in these oxides, by calcium substitution in Er1-xCaxBaCuCoO5-x (up to x similar or equal to 0.3) was done but, these oxides did not show metallic behaviour.

Synthesis and properties of rare earth doped lamp phosphors

Red, blue and green emitting lamp phosphors such as EU(3+) doped Y2O3 (red phosphor), EU(2+) doped Ba0.64Al12O18.64, BaMgAl10O17 and BaMg2Al16O27 (blue phosphors) and Ce0.67Tb0.33MgAl11O19 and Eu2+, Mn2+ doped BaMgAl10O17 (green phosphors) have been prepared by the combustion of the corresponding metal nitrates (oxidizer) and oxalyl dihydrazide/urea/carbohydrazide (fuel) mixtures at 400 degrees-500 degrees C within 5 min. The formation of these phosphors has been confirmed by their characteristic powder X-ray diffraction patterns and fluorescence spectra. The phosphors showed characteristic emission bands at 611 nm (red emission), 430-450 nm (blue emission) and 515-540 nm (green emission). The fine-particle nature of the combustion derived phosphors has been investigated using powder density, particle size and BET surface area measurements.

On breaks of the Indian monsoon

For over a century, the term break has been used for spells in which the rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone is interrupted. The phenomenon of 'break monsoon' is of great interest because long intense breaks are often associated with poor monsoon seasons. Such breaks have distinct circulation characteristics (heat trough type circulation) and have a large impact on rainfed agriculture. Although interruption of the monsoon rainfall is considered to be the most important feature of the break monsoon, traditionally breaks have been identified on the basis of the surface pressure and wind patterns over the Indian region. We have defined breaks (and active spells) on the basis of rainfall over the monsoon zone. The rainfall criteria are chosen so as to ensure a large overlap with the traditional breaks documented by Ramamurthy (1969) and De et al (1998). We have identified these rainbreaks for 1901-89. We have also identified active spells on the basis of rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone. We have shown that the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with the number of rainbreak days (correlation coefficient -0.56) and significantly positively correlated with the number of active days (correlation coefficient 0.47). Thus the interannual variation of the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is shown to be related to the number of days of rainbreaks and active spells identified here. There have been several studies of breaks (and also active spells in several cases) identified on the basis of different criteria over regions differing in spatial scales (e.g., Webster et al 1998; Krishnan et al 2000; Goswami and Mohan 2000; and Annamalai and Slingo 2001). We find that there is considerable overlap between the rainbreaks we have identified and breaks based on the traditional definition. There is some overlap with the breaks identified by Krishnan et al (2000) but little overlap with breaks identified by Webster et al (1998). Further, there are three or four active-break cycles in a season according to Webster et al (1998) which implies a time scale of about 40 days for which Goswami and Mohan (2000), and Annamalai and Slingo'(2001) have studied breaks and active minus break fluctuations. On the other hand, neither the traditional breaks (Ramamurthy 1969; and De et al 1998) nor the rainbreaks occur every year. This suggests that the 'breaks' in these studies axe weak spells of the intraseasonal variation of the monsoon, which occur every year. We have derived the OLR and circulation patterns associated with rainbreaks and active spells and compared them with the patterns associated with breaks/active minus break spells from these studies. Inspite of differences in the patterns over the Indian region, there is one feature which is seen in the OLR anomaly patterns of breaks identified on the basis of different criteria as well as the rainbreaks identified in this paper viz., a quadrapole over the Asia-west Pacific region arising from anomalies opposite (same) in sign to those over the Indian region occurring over the equatorial Indian Ocean and northern tropical (equatorial) parts of the west Pacific. Thus it appears that this quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal,variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. Since the rainbreaks are intense weak spells, this basic feature is also seen in the composite patterns of these breaks. We find that rainbreaks (active spells) are also associated with negative (positive) anomalies over a part of the cast Pacific suggesting that the convection over the Indian region is linked to that over the east Pacific not only on the interannual scale (as evinced by the link between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ENSO) but on the intraseasonal scale as well.

The Indian monsoon and its variability

For over 300 years, the monsoon has been viewed as a gigantic land-sea breeze. It is shown in this paper that satellite and conventional observations support an alternative hypothesis, which considers the monsoon as a manifestation of seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). With the focus on the Indian monsoon, the mean seasonal pattern is described, and why it is difficult to simulate it is discussed. Some facets of the intraseasonal variation, such as active-weak cycles; break monsoon; and a special feature of intraseasonal variation over the region, namely, poleward propagations of the ITCZ at intervals of 2-6 weeks, are considered. Vertical moist stability is shown to be a key parameter in the variation of monthly convection over ocean and land as well as poleward propagations. Special features of the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon brought out by observations during a national observational experiment in 1999 are briefly described.

Complexes of rare-earth perchlorates with ditbutyl amides of di, tri and tetraglycolic acids

New complexes of lanthanide perchlorates with di-t-butyl amides of di, tri and tetraglycolic acids have been synthesised. The complexes have the general formula Ln(DiGA)3(ClO4)3; Ln(TriGA)2 (ClO4)3 and Ln(TetGA)2 (C1O4)3, where Ln = La-Yb and Y and DiGA = N,N′, di-t-butyl diglycolamide, TriGA N,N′, di-t-butyl triglycolamide and TetGA = N,N′ di-t-butyl tetraglycolamide, respectively. The complexes have been characterized by analysis, electrolytic conductance, infrared,1H and13C nuclear magnetic resonance and electronic spectral data.Infrared spectra indicate the coordination of all the available ether oxygens and the amide carbonyls in each of the ligands, to the metal ions. IR and conductance data show that the perchlorate groups in all the complexes are ionic.1H and13C NMR data support the IR data regarding the mode of coordination of ligands to the metal ions. Electronic spectral shapes have been interpreted in terms of nine, eight and ten coordination in DiGA, TriGA and TetGA complexes respectively.

Influences of the springtime northern Indian biomass burning over the central Himalayas

The influences of the springtime northern Indian biomass burning are shown for the first time over the central Himalayas by using three years (2007-2009) of surface and space based observations along with a radiative transfer model. Near-surface ozone, black carbon (BC), spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) and the meteorological parameters are measured at a high altitude site Nainital (29.37 degrees N, 79.45 degrees E, 1958 m amsl) located in the central Himalayas. The satellite observations include the MODIS derived fire counts and AOD (0.55 mu m), and OMI derived tropospheric column NO(2), ultraviolet aerosol index and single scattering albedo. MODIS fire counts and BC observations are used to identify the fire-impacted periods (372 h during 2007-2009) and hence the induced enhancements in surface BC, AOD (0.5 mu m) and ozone are estimated to be 1802 ng m(-3) (similar to 145%), 0.3 (similar to 150%) and 19 ppbv (similar to 34%) respectively. Large enhancements (53-100%) are also seen in the satellite derived parameters over a 2 degrees x 2 degrees region around Nainital. The present analysis highlights the northern Indian biomass burning induced cooling at the surface (-27 W m(-2)) and top of the atmosphere (-8 W m(-2)) in the lesser polluted high altitude regions of the central Himalayas. This cooling leads to an additional atmospheric warming of 19 W m(-2) and increases the lower atmospheric heating rate by 0.8 K day(-1). These biomass burning induced changes over the central Himalayan atmosphere during spring may also lead to enhanced short-wave absorption above clouds and might have an impact on the monsoonal rainfall.

Crustal Deformation and Seismic History Associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake: A Perspective from the Andaman–Nicobar Islands

The Indian Ocean earthquake of 26 December 2004 led to significant ground deformation in the Andaman and Nicobar region, accounting for ~800 km of the rupture. Part of this article deals with coseismic changes along these islands, observable from coastal morphology, biological indicators, and Global Positioning System (GPS) data. Our studies indicate that the islands south of 10° N latitude coseismically subsided by 1–1.5 m, both on their eastern and western margins, whereas those to the north showed a mixed response. The western margin of the Middle Andaman emerged by >1 m, and the eastern margin submerged by the same amount. In the North Andaman, both western and eastern margins emerged by >1 m. We also assess the pattern of long-term deformation (uplift/subsidence) and attempt to reconstruct earthquake/tsunami history, with the available data. Geological evidence for past submergence includes dead mangrove vegetation dating to 740 ± 100 yr B.P., near Port Blair and peat layers at 2–4 m and 10–15 m depths observed in core samples from nearby locations. Preliminary paleoseismological/tsunami evidence from the Andaman and Nicobar region and from the east coast of India, suggest at least one predecessor for the 2004 earthquake 900–1000 years ago. The history of earthquakes, although incomplete at this stage, seems to imply that the 2004-type earthquakes are infrequent and follow variable intervals

Climate change and crop yields in the Indian Cardamom Hills, 1978-2007 CE

In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978-2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37A degrees C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June-September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee (Coffea arabica), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea (Thea sinensis) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis.

Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.