Impacts of the EU Biofuel Target on Agricultural Markets and Land Use - A Comparative Modelling Assessment

The Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) requires that 20% of the EU's energy needs should come from renewable sources by 2020, and includes a target for the transport sector of 10% from biofuels. This report analyses and discusses the global impacts of this biofuel target on agricultural production, markets and land use, as simulated by three agricultural sector models, AGLINK-COSIMO, ESIM and CAPRI. The impacts identified include higher EU production of ethanol and biodiesel, and of the crops used to produce them, as well as more imports of both biofuels. Trade flows of biofuel feedstocks also change to reflect greater EU demand, including a significant increase in vegetable oil imports. However, as the extra demand is small in world market terms, the impact on world market prices is limited. With the EU biofuel target, global use of land for crop cultivation is higher by 5.2 million hectares. About one quarter is area within the EU, some of which would otherwise have left agriculture.

Syntax processing by auditory cortical neurons in the FM–FM area of the mustached bat Pteronotus parnellii

Syntax denotes a rule system that allows one to predict the sequencing of communication signals. Despite its significance for both human speech processing and animal acoustic communication, the representation of syntactic structure in the mammalian brain has not been studied electrophysiologically at the single-unit level. In the search for a neuronal correlate for syntax, we used playback of natural and temporally destructured complex species-specific communication calls—so-called composites—while recording extracellularly from neurons in a physiologically well defined area (the FM–FM area) of the mustached bat’s auditory cortex. Even though this area is known to be involved in the processing of target distance information for echolocation, we found that units in the FM–FM area were highly responsive to composites. The finding that neuronal responses were strongly affected by manipulation in the time domain of the natural composite structure lends support to the hypothesis that syntax processing in mammals occurs at least at the level of the nonprimary auditory cortex.

The temporal lobe is a target of output from the basal ganglia.

The basal ganglia are known to receive inputs from widespread regions of the cerebral cortex, such as the frontal, parietal, and temporal lobes. Of these cortical areas, only the frontal lobe is thought to be the target of basal ganglia output. One of the cortical regions that is a source of input to the basal ganglia is area TE, in inferotemporal cortex. This cortical area is thought to be critically involved in the recognition and discrimination of visual objects. Using retrograde transneuronal transport of herpes simplex virus type 1, we have found that one of the output nuclei of the basal ganglia, the substantia nigra pars reticulata, projects via the thalamus to TE. Thus, TE is not only a source of input to the basal ganglia, but also is a target of basal ganglia output. This result implies that the output of the basal ganglia influences higher order aspects of visual processing. In addition, we propose that dysfunction of the basal ganglia loop with TE leads to alterations in visual perception, including visual hallucinations.

The euro area's tightrope walk: debt and competitiveness in Italy and Spain. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/11, September 2013

Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area? CEPS Policy Brief No. 326, 18 November 2014

Investment has declined in the euro area since the start of the economic and financial crisis, but this does not mean that there is necessarily an ‘investment gap’, explains Daniel Gros in this CEPS Policy Brief. Investment was probably above a sustainable level due to the credit boom before 2007. Moreover, the fall in the euro area’s potential growth − due to a combination of a sharp demographic slowdown and lower total factor productivity (TFP) growth − should also lead to a permanently lower investment rate. Increasing the investment rate might thus be the wrong target for economic policy. The author advises that the aim of economic policy should be to increase consumption, rather than investment overall. Increasing infrastructure investment might be justified in some member countries, but it is not a ‘free lunch’ when efficiency levels are low, which seems to be the case in some of the financially stressed euro area countries.

Ipsilateral corticocortical projections to the primary and middle temporal visual areas of the primate cerebral cortex: area-specific variations in the morphology of connectionally identified pyramidal cells

We quantified the morphology of over 350 pyramidal neurons with identified ipsilateral corticocortical projections to the primary (V1) and middle temporal (MT) visual areas of the marmoset monkey, following intracellular injection of Lucifer Yellow into retrogradely labelled cells. Paralleling the results of studies in which randomly sampled pyramidal cells were injected, we found that the size of the basal dendritic tree of connectionally identified cells differed between cortical areas, as did the branching complexity and spine density. We found no systematic relationship between dendritic tree structure and axon target or length. Instead, the size of the basal dendritic tree increased roughly in relation to increasing distance from the occipital pole, irrespective of the length of the connection or the cortical layer in which the neurons were located. For example, cells in the second visual area had some of the smallest and least complex dendritic trees irrespective of whether they projected to V1 or MT, while those in the dorsolateral area (DL) were among the largest and most complex. We also observed that systematic differences in spine number were more marked among V1-projecting cells than MT-projecting cells. These data demonstrate that the previously documented systematic differences in pyramidal cell morphology between areas cannot simply be attributed to variable proportions of neurons projecting to different targets, in the various areas. Moreover, they suggest that mechanisms intrinsic to the area in which neurons are located are strong determinants of basal dendritic field structure.

Towards developing reliable models of leaf area on grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.)

A field study in three vineyards in southern Queensland (Australia) was carried out to develop predictive models for individual leaf area and shoot leaf area of two cultivars (Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz) of grapevines (Vitis Vinifera L.). Digital image analysis was used to measure leaf vein length and leaf area. Stepwise regressions of untransformed and transformed models consisting of up to six predictor variables for leaf area and three predictor variables for shoot leaf area were carried out to obtain the most efficient models. High correlation coefficients were found for log10 transformed individual leaf and shoot leaf area models. The significance of predictor variables in the models varied across vineyards and cultivars, demonstrating the discontinuous and heterogeneous nature of vineyards. The application of this work in a grapevine modeling environment and in a dynamic vineyard management context are discussed. Sample sizes for quantification of individual leaf areas and areas of leaves on shoots are proposed based on target margins of errors of sampled data.

Contrast integration over area is extensive: a three-stage model of spatial summation

Classical studies of area summation measure contrast detection thresholds as a function of grating diameter. Unfortunately, (i) this approach is compromised by retinal inhomogeneity and (ii) it potentially confounds summation of signal with summation of internal noise. The Swiss cheese stimulus of T. S. Meese and R. J. Summers (2007) and the closely related Battenberg stimulus of T. S. Meese (2010) were designed to avoid these problems by keeping target diameter constant and modulating interdigitated checks of first-order carrier contrast within the stimulus region. This approach has revealed a contrast integration process with greater potency than the classical model of spatial probability summation. Here, we used Swiss cheese stimuli to investigate the spatial limits of contrast integration over a range of carrier frequencies (1–16 c/deg) and raised plaid modulator frequencies (0.25–32 cycles/check). Subthreshold summation for interdigitated carrier pairs remained strong (~4 to 6 dB) up to 4 to 8 cycles/check. Our computational analysis of these results implied linear signal combination (following square-law transduction) over either (i) 12 carrier cycles or more or (ii) 1.27 deg or more. Our model has three stages of summation: short-range summation within linear receptive fields, medium-range integration to compute contrast energy for multiple patches of the image, and long-range pooling of the contrast integrators by probability summation. Our analysis legitimizes the inclusion of widespread integration of signal (and noise) within hierarchical image processing models. It also confirms the individual differences in the spatial extent of integration that emerge from our approach.

Gamma-hydroxybutyrate does not maintain self-administration but induces conditioned place preference when injected in the ventral tegmental area

Gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) is an endogenous brain substance that has diverse neuropharmacological actions, including rewarding properties in different animal species and in humans. As other drugs of abuse, GHB affects the firing of ventral tegmental neurons (VTA) in anaesthetized animals and hyperpolarizes dopaminergic neurons in VTA slices. However, no direct behavioural data on the effects of GHB applied in the VTA or in the target regions of its dopaminergic neurons, e.g. the nucleus accumbens (NAc), are available. Here, we investigated the effects of various doses of intravenous GHB in maintaining self-administration (from 0.001 to 10 mg/kg per infusion), and its ability to induce conditioned place preference (CPP) in rats when given orally (175-350 mg/kg) or injected directly either in the VTA or NAc (from 10 to 300 microg/0.5 microl per side). Our results indicate that while only 0.01 mg/kg per infusion GHB maintained self-administration, although not on every test day, 350 mg/kg GHB given orally induced CPP. CPP was also observed when GHB was injected in the VTA (30-100 microg/0.5 microl per side) but not in the NAc. Together with recent in-vitro findings, these results suggest that the rewarding properties of GHB mainly occur via disinhibition of VTA dopaminergic neurons.

Cortical dynamics and synchronization related to multiple target consolidation under rapid-serial-visual-presentation conditions

The present report reviews behavioural, electroencephalographic, and especially magnetoencephalographic findings on the cortical mechanisms underlying attentional processes that separate targets from distractors and that ensure durable target representations for goal-directed action. A common way of investigation is to observe the system’s overt and covert behaviour when capacity limitations are reached. Here we focus on the aspect of temporally enhanced processing load, namely on performance deficits occurring under rapid-serial-visual-presentation (RSVP) conditions. The most prominent of these deficits is the so-called “attentional blink” (AB) effect. We first report MEG findings with respect to the time course of activation that shows modulations around 300 ms after target onset which reflect demands and success of target consolidation. Then, findings regarding long-range inter-area phase synchronization are reported that are hypothesized to mediate communication within the attentional network. Changes in synchronization reflect changes in the attentional demands of the task and are directly related to behavioural performance. Furthermore, enhanced vigilance of the system elicits systematically increased synchronization indices. A hypothetical framework is sketched out that aims at explaining limitations in multiple target consolidation under RSVP conditions.

Fourth-root summation of contrast over area:no end in sight when spatially inhomogeneous sensitivity is compensated by a witch's hat

Measurements of area summation for luminance-modulated stimuli are typically confounded by variations in sensitivity across the retina. Recently we conducted a detailed analysis of sensitivity across the visual field (Baldwin et al, 2012) and found it to be well-described by a bilinear “witch’s hat” function: sensitivity declines rapidly over the first 8 cycles or so, more gently thereafter. Here we multiplied luminance-modulated stimuli (4 c/deg gratings and “Swiss cheeses”) by the inverse of the witch’s hat function to compensate for the inhomogeneity. This revealed summation functions that were straight lines (on double log axes) with a slope of -1/4 extending to ≥33 cycles, demonstrating fourth-root summation of contrast over a wider area than has previously been reported for the central retina. Fourth-root summation is typically attributed to probability summation, but recent studies have rejected that interpretation in favour of a noisy energy model that performs local square-law transduction of the signal, adds noise at each location of the target and then sums over signal area. Modelling shows our results to be consistent with a wide field application of such a contrast integrator. We reject a probability summation model, a quadratic model and a matched template model of our results under the assumptions of signal detection theory. We also reject the high threshold theory of contrast detection under the assumption of probability summation over area.

The Digital Observatory for Protected Areas (DOPA) as a support tool for protected area planning, financing and reporting

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission has developed, in consultation with many partners, the DOPA as a global reference information system to support decision making on protected areas (PAs) and biodiversity conservation. The DOPA brings together the World Database on Protected Areas with other reference datasets on species, habitats, ecoregions, threats and pressures, to deliver critical indicators at country level and PA level that can inform gap analyses, PA planning and reporting. These indicators are especially relevant to Aichi Targets 11 and 12, and have recently contributed to CBD country dossiers and capacity building on these targets. DOPA also includes eConservation, a new module that provides a means to share and search information on conservation projects, and thus allows users to see “who is doing what where”. So far over 5000 projects from the World Bank, GEF, CEPF, EU LIFE Programme, CBD LifeWeb Initiative and others have been included, and these projects can be searched in an interactive mapping interface based on criteria such as location, objectives, timeframe, budget, the organizations involved, target species etc. This seminar will provide an introduction to DOPA and eConservation, highlight how these services are used by the CBD and others, and include ample time for discussion.

The Euro Area's Tightrope Walk: Debt and Competitiveness in Italy and Spain

- Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. - In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. - The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro-area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

RF MIMO Systems for Wide-Area Indoor Human Motion Monitoring

Human motion monitoring is an important function in numerous applications. In this dissertation, two systems for monitoring motions of multiple human targets in wide-area indoor environments are discussed, both of which use radio frequency (RF) signals to detect, localize, and classify different types of human motion. In the first system, a coherent monostatic multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) array is used, and a joint spatial-temporal adaptive processing method is developed to resolve micro-Doppler signatures at each location in a wide-area for motion mapping. The downranges are obtained by estimating time-delays from the targets, and the crossranges are obtained by coherently filtering array spatial signals. Motion classification is then applied to each target based on micro-Doppler analysis. In the second system, multiple noncoherent multistatic transmitters (Tx's) and receivers (Rx's) are distributed in a wide-area, and motion mapping is achieved by noncoherently combining bistatic range profiles from multiple Tx-Rx pairs. Also, motion classification is applied to each target by noncoherently combining bistatic micro-Doppler signatures from multiple Tx-Rx pairs. For both systems, simulation and real data results are shown to demonstrate the ability of the proposed methods for monitoring patient repositioning activities for pressure ulcer prevention.

Molecular docking and geographical information systems as tools to assess the potential impact of veterinary medicines on non-target organisms and the environment

Veterinary medicines (VMs) from agricultural industry can enter the environment in a number of ways. This includes direct exposure through aquaculture, accidental spillage and disposal, and indirect entry by leaching from manure or runoff after treatment. Many compounds used in animal treatments have ecotoxic properties that may have chronic or sometimes lethal effects when they come into contact with non-target organisms. VMs enter the environment in mixtures, potentially having additive effects. Traditional ecotoxicology tests are used to determine the lethal and sometimes reproductive effects on freshwater and terrestrial organisms. However, organisms used in ecotoxicology tests can be unrepresentative of the populations that are likely to be exposed to the compound in the environment. Most often the tests are on single compound toxicity but mixture effects may be significant and should be included in ecotoxicology testing. This work investigates the use, measured environmental concentrations (MECs) and potential impact of sea lice treatments on salmon farms in Scotland. Alternative methods for ecotoxicology testing including mixture toxicity, and the use of in silico techniques to predict the chronic impact of VMs on different species of aquatic organisms were also investigated. The Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) provided information on the use of five sea lice treatments from 2008-2011 on Scottish salmon farms. This information was combined with the recently available data on sediment MECs for the years 2009-2012 provided by SEPA using ArcGIS 10.1. In depth analysis of this data showed that from a total of 55 sites, 30 sites had a MEC higher than the maximum allowable concentration (MAC) as set out by SEPA for emamectin benzoate and 7 sites had a higher MEC than MAC for teflubenzuron. A number of sites that were up to 16 km away from the nearest salmon farm reported as using either emamectin benzoate or teflubenzuron measured positive for the two treatments. There was no relationship between current direction and the distribution of the sea lice treatments, nor was there any evidence for alternative sources of the compounds e.g. land treatments. The sites that had MECs higher than the MAC could pose a risk to non-target organisms and disrupt the species dynamics of the area. There was evidence that some marine protected sites might be at risk of exposure to these compounds. To complement this work, effects on acute mixture toxicity of the 5 sea lice treatments, plus one major metabolite 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3PBA), were measured using an assay using the bioluminescent bacteria Aliivibrio fischeri. When exposed to the 5 sea lice treatments and 3PBA A. fischeri showed a response to 3PBA, emamectin benzoate and azamethiphos as well as combinations of the three. In order to establish any additive effect of the sea lice treatments, the efficacy of two mixture prediction equations, concentration addition (CA) and independent action ii(IA) were tested using the results from single compound dose response curves. In this instance IA was the more effective prediction method with a linear regression confidence interval of 82.6% compared with 22.6% of CA. In silico molecular docking was carried out to predict the chronic effects of 15 VMs (including the five used as sea lice control). Molecular docking has been proposed as an alternative screening method for the chronic effects of large animal treatments on non-target organisms. Oestrogen receptor alpha (ERα) of 7 non-target bony fish and the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis were modelled using SwissModel. These models were then ‘docked’ to oestradiol, the synthetic oestrogen ethinylestradiol, two known xenoestrogens dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and bisphenol A (BPA), the antioestrogen breast cancer treatment tamoxifen and 15 VMs using Auto Dock 4. Based on the results of this work, four VMs were identified as being possible xenoestrogens or anti-oestrogens; these were cypermethrin, deltamethrin, fenbendazole and teflubenzuron. Further investigation, using in vitro assays, into these four VMs has been suggested as future work. A modified recombinant yeast oestrogen screen (YES) was attempted using the cDNA of the ERα of the zebrafish Danio rerio and the rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Due to time and difficulties in cloning protocols this work was unable to be completed. Use of such in vitro assays would allow for further investigation of the highlighted VMs into their oestrogenic potential. In conclusion, VMs used as sea lice treatments, such as teflubenzuron and emamectin benzoate may be more persistent and have a wider range in the environment than previously thought. Mixtures of sea lice treatments have been found to persist together in the environment, and effects of these mixtures on the bacteria A. fischeri can be predicted using the IA equation. Finally, molecular docking may be a suitable tool to predict chronic endocrine disrupting effects and identify varying degrees of impact on the ERα of nine species of aquatic organisms.