990 resultados para Hypothesis generation
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This paper provides a summary of what is known from social science research about the effects parents have on the donations of their children. It then goes on to summarize two on-going research projects. The first project provides estimates of the strength of the relationship between the charitable giving of parents and that of their adult children. The second provides estimates of the effect of inheritances on charitable donations. Both projects use data from the Center on Philanthropy Panel Study (COPPS); accordingly, the paper provides an introduction to these data. Finally, the paper draws implications for fundraisers from the two on-going projects, and suggests several other areas in which COPPS can generate knowledge to improve the practice of fundraising.
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Unsteady natural convection inside a triangular cavity has been studied in this study. The cavity is filled with a saturated porous medium with non-isothermal left inclined wall while the bottom surface is isothermally heated and the right inclined surface is isothermally cooled. An internal heat generation is also considered which is dependent on the fluid temperature. The governing equations are solved numerically by finite volume method. The Prandtl number, Pr of the fluid is considered as 0.7 (air) while the aspect ratio and the Rayleigh number, Ra are considered as 0.5 and 105 respectively. The effect of heat generation on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been presented as a form of streamlines and isotherms. The rate of heat transfer through three surfaces of the enclosure is also presented.
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The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide description and analysis of how a traditional industry is currently using e-learning, and to identify how the potential of e-learning can be realised whilst acknowledging the technological divide between younger and older workers. Design/methodology/approach – An exploratory qualitative methodology was employed to analyse three key questions: How is the Australian rail industry currently using e-learning? Are there age-related issues with the current use of e-learning in the rail industry? How could e-learning be used in future to engage different generations of learners in the rail industry? Data were collected in five case organisations from across the Australian rail industry. Findings – Of the rail organisations interviewed, none believed they were using e-learning to its full potential. The younger, more technologically literate employees are not having their expectations met and therefore retention of younger workers has become an issue. The challenge for learning and development practitioners is balancing the preferences of an aging workforce with these younger, more “technology-savvy”, learners and the findings highlight some potential ways to begin addressing this balance. Practical implications – The findings identified the potential for organisations (even those in a traditional industry such as rail) to better utilise e-learning to attract and retain younger workers but also warns against making assumptions about technological competency based on age. Originality/value – Data were gathered across an industry, and thus this paper takes an industry approach to considering the potential age-related issues with e-learning and the ways it may be used to meet the needs of different generations in the workplace.
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Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.
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The Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project is a unique nationally significant project funded by the Australian Government through the Department of Employment, Education and Workplace Relations (DEEWR, Au$8.8 million) and the Information and Communication Technology Innovation Fund (ICTIF). This 2011-2012 project has ambitiously attempted to build the ICT education (ICTE) capacity of the next generation of Australian teachers through its focus on pre-service teachers, teacher educators and the new Australian Curriculum. This paper will provide an overview of the project including a description of its genesis in a changing educational and political landscape, its structure and operations, its grounding in contemporary theory, the research opportunities it has engendered and its tangible outcomes.
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Findings from an online survey conducted by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) shows that Australia is suffering from a lack of data reflecting trip generation for use in Traffic Impact Assessments (TIAs). Current independent variables for trip generation estimation are not able to create robust outcomes as well. It is also challenging to account for the impact of the new development on public and active transport as well as the effect of trip chaining behaviour in Australian TIA studies. With this background in mind, research is being implemented by QUT to find a new approach developing a combined model of trip generation and mode choice with consideration of trip chaining effects. It is expected that the model will provide transferable outcomes as it is developed based on socio-demographic parameters. Child Care Centres within the Brisbane area have been nominated for model development. At the time, the project is in the data collection phase. Findings from the pilot survey associated with capturing trip chaining and mode choice information reveal that applying questionnaire is able to capture required information in an acceptable level. The result also reveals that several centres within an area should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data for trip chaining and modal split analysis.
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Over the past few years, the Midwest ISO has experienced a surge in requests to interconnect large amounts of wind generation, driven largely by a favorable political environment and an abundant wind resource in the Midwestern US. This tremendous influx of proposed generators along with a highly constrained transmission system adversely impacted interconnection queue processing, resulting in an unmanageable backlog. Under these circumstances, Midwest ISO successfully reformed the interconnection tariff to improve cycle times and provide increased certainty to interconnection customers. One of the key features of the reformed queue process is the System Planning and Analysis (SPA) phase which allows integration of the interconnection studies with regional transmission planning. This paper presents a brief background of the queue reform effort and then delves deeply in to the work performed at the Midwest ISO during the first SPA cycle - the study approach, the challenges faced in having to study over 50,000 MWs of wind generation and the effective solutions designed to complete these studies within tariff timelines.
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Transport Impact Assessment (TIA) -Generally a short range transport planning activity -Assess transport impacts of new developments or expansions -Present solutions to mitigate impacts Problems with TIA Process -Private vehicles focus (i.e. Veh Trip Ends) -Proxy variables (e.g. 100sqm GFA) -Trip generation rates (e.g. VTE/proxy) -Little info/guidance on trip chaining effects -Little info/guidance on non-PV modes Requires significant professional judgment
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TOD: - A fully planned, mixed use development equipped with good quality transit service and infrastructure for walking and cycling Hypothesis: -TOD will help to reduce urban transport congestion Method: -Comparison of a TOD with non TOD urban environments -Residents’ trip characteristics
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In their recent review of prior studies examining firm performance, Klapper and Parker (2010, p.7) conclude that “women entrepreneurs tend to underperform relative to their male counterparts.” However, Robb and Watson (2011) argue that much of this prior research is based on inappropriate performance measures and/or does not adequately control (due to data limitations) for important demographic differences. Given the conflicting findings reported in the literature, the aim of this study is to replicate the study by Robb and Watson (2011) to see if their findings can be generalized to another geographical location. Our results, based on an analysis of 209 female-owned and 263 male-owned young Australian firms, confirm those of Robb and Watson (2011). We believe that this outcome should help dispel the female underperformance myth; which if left unchallenged could result in inappropriate policy decisions and, more importantly, could discourage women from establishing new ventures.
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Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency improvements for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables reporting of detailed cost of operations for decision making purpose, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Business process management is concerned with systematically documenting, managing, automating, and optimising processes. Process mining gives valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded by an IT system in the form of an event log with the focus on efficient utilisation of time and resources, although its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, we propose a framework to support management accounting decisions on cost control by automatically incorporating cost data with historical data from event logs for monitoring, predicting and reporting process-related costs. We also illustrate how accurate, relevant and timely management accounting style cost reports can be produced on demand by extending open-source process mining framework ProM.
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This paper provides an analysis of why many ‘stars’ tend to fade away rather than enjoying ongoing branding advantages from their reputations. We propose a theory of market overshooting in creative industries that is based on Schumpeterian competition between producers to maintain the interest of boundedly rational fans. As creative producers compete by offering further artistic novelty, this escalation of product complexity eventually leads to overshooting. We propose this as a theory of endogenous cycles in the creative industries.
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This paper presents a model for generating a MAC tag with a stream cipher using the input message indirectly. Several recent proposals represent instances of this model with slightly different options. We investigate the security of this model for different options, and identify cases which permit forgery attacks. Based on this, we present a new forgery attack on version 1.4 of 128-EIA3. Design recommendations to enhance the security of proposals following this general model are given.
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Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the aetiological agent for cervical cancer and genital warts. Concurrent HPV and HIV infection in the South African population is high. HIV positive (+) women are often infected with multiple, rare and undetermined HPV types. Data on HPV incidence and genotype distribution are based on commercial HPV detection kits, but these kits may not detect all HPV types in HIV + women. The objectives of this study were to (i) identify the HPV types not detected by commercial genotyping kits present in a cervical specimen from an HIV positive South African woman using next generation sequencing, and (ii) determine if these types were prevalent in a cohort of HIV-infected South African women. Methods Total DNA was isolated from 109 cervical specimens from South African HIV + women. A specimen within this cohort representing a complex multiple HPV infection, with 12 HPV genotypes detected by the Roche Linear Array HPV genotyping (LA) kit, was selected for next generation sequencing analysis. All HPV types present in this cervical specimen were identified by Illumina sequencing of the extracted DNA following rolling circle amplification. The prevalence of the HPV types identified by sequencing, but not included in the Roche LA, was then determined in the 109 HIV positive South African women by type-specific PCR. Results Illumina sequencing identified a total of 16 HPV genotypes in the selected specimen, with four genotypes (HPV-30, 74, 86 and 90) not included in the commercial kit. The prevalence's of HPV-30, 74, 86 and 90 in 109 HIV positive South African women were found to be 14.6 %, 12.8 %, 4.6 % and 8.3 % respectively. Conclusions Our results indicate that there are HPV types, with substantial prevalence, in HIV positive women not being detected in molecular epidemiology studies using commercial kits. The significance of these types in relation to cervical disease remains to be investigated.