Saudi Arabia’s sustainable housing limitations : the experts’ views

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to attempt to bridge the gap between sustainable housing and the use of smart technologies to improve the level of sustainability in the housing construction in Saudi Arabia, by discussing the barriers and enablers concerned with applying sustainability to housing construction in Saudi Arabia, which utilises smart technologies. Design/methodology/approach A Delphi method survey was employed, for which 25 individuals from three key stakeholder groups of the Saudi housing sector participated. They were asked about their degree of agreement (or disagreement) about the various barriers and enablers of applying sustainability to housing construction in Saudi Arabia, which utilises smart technologies. This research paper must be considered as an indicative study of selected experts that do not represent in any way the total population of Saudi Arabia. Findings Lack of public awareness has been identified as the most significant barrier in implementing sustainable housing development in Saudi Arabia, which utilises smart technologies. Raising awareness of the public to the benefits of sustainable housing and enlightening key project stakeholders in the design of sustainable housing are both essential in order to overcome the barriers discussed in this paper. In addition, it is important to adopt smart sustainable construction methods, exemplified by but not limited to, appropriate water preservation and wastewater treatment systems that are simultaneously smart and sustainable. Research limitations/implications This particular research has dealt with only barriers and enablers in the application of sustainability to housing in Saudi Arabia, which utilises smart technologies. For a more complete understanding, there is a need for further analysis of supplementary factors. Practical implications A study such as this, which identifies and prioritises barriers and enablers, could prove useful in guiding or encouraging the relevant ministry in Saudi Arabia to develop policies founded in the implementation of sustainability to the housing sector. Originality/value This research is a preliminary investigation into the implementation of sustainable housing development as it relates to Saudi Arabia.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Does sustainable housing construction provide the home owner with a greater investment return?

Over the past 20 years there has been a considerable push at all three tiers of Government and private industry in Australia to improve the energy efficiency and sustainability levels of residential housing. A number of these initiatives have been voluntary, such as solar power and solar heating rebates, with other mandatory measures being incorporated into building standards and codes. Although the importance of energy efficiency and sustainable materials have been widely conveyed both at the academic and public level, it does not always reflect in the residential house purchase decision by typical house buyers, including residential property investors. This paper will analyse a range of housing markets in Brisbane to determine the investment performance of those markets over the past 3 years to determine any significant differences between new residential suburbs and older residential suburbs where houses have not been constructed to the current energy efficiency and sustainability guidelines. The range of suburbs to be analysed will focus on middle to lower high value suburbs, with a particular focus on residential housing in Master Planned Communities to determine if socio-economic factors and development size and scope have an impact of the purchase and investment performance of sustainable houses in comparison to older housing stock. The paper confirms that the residential property market shows a higher capital return for residential property built under stricter sustainability guidelines than similar located and type of property built prior to the BCA 2004 and older style project type homes erected prior to 2000.

Data requirements of hedonic models in determining the impact of infrastructure charges on new housing costs

The use of hedonic models to estimate the effects of various factors on house prices is well established. This paper examines a number of international hedonic house price models that seek to quantify the effect of infrastructure charges on new house prices. This work is an important factor in the housing affordability debate, with many governments in high growth areas having user-pays infrastructure charging policies operating in tandem with housing affordability objectives, with no empirical evidence on the impact of one on the other. This research finds there is little consistency between existing models and the data sets utilised. Specification appears dependent upon data availability rather than sound theoretical grounding. This may lead to a lack of external validity with model specification dependent upon data availability rather than sound theoretical grounding.

Livable Housing Design : Who will take responsibility?

Current housing design and construction practices do not meet the needs of many people with disability and older people, and limits their inclusion and participation in community and family life. In spite of a decade of advocacy for regulation of access within residential environments, the Australian government has opted for a voluntary approach where the housing industry takes responsibility. Housing industry leaders have indicated that they are willing to transform their established practice, if it makes good business to do so, and if there is a demand from home buyers. To date, there has been minimal demand. In 2010, housing industry and community leaders formalised this commitment in an agreement, called Livable Housing Design, to transform housing design and construction practices, with a target of all new housing providing minimal access by 2020. This paper reports on a study which examined the assumption behind Livable Housing Design agreement; that is, individuals in the housing industry will respond voluntarily and take responsibility for the provision of inclusive housing. From interviews with developers, designers and builders in Brisbane, Queensland, the study found a complex picture of competing demands and responsibilities. Instead of changing their design and construction practices voluntarily to meet the future needs of users over the life of housing, they are more likely to focus on their immediate contractual obligations and to maintain the status quo. Contrary to the view of the government and industry leaders, participants identified that an external regulatory framework would be required if Livable Housing Design’s 2020 goal was to be met.

The link between infrastructure charges and housing affordability in Australia: Where is the empirical evidence?

Developer paid charges or contributions are a commonly used infrastructure funding mechanism for local governments. However, developers claim that these costs are merely passed on to home buyers, with adverse effects to housing affordability. Despite a plethora of government reports and industry advocacy, there remains no empirical evidence in Australia to confirm or quantify this passing on effect to home buyers and hence no data for which governments to base policy decision upon. This paper examines the question of who really pays for urban infrastructure and the impact of infrastructure charges on housing affordability. It presents the findings of a number of international empirical studies that provide evidence that infrastructure charges do increase house prices. Based on international findings, and in the absence of any Australian research, then these findings suggest that if the international findings are transferable, then there is empirical evidence to support the proposition that developer paid infrastructure charges are a significant contributor to increasing house prices.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Strategies and solutions for housing sustainability : building information files and performance certificates

The overall aim of this research project was to provide a broader range of value propositions (beyond upfront traditional construction costs) that could transform both the demand side and supply side of the housing industry. The project involved gathering information about how building information is created, used and communicated and classifying building information, leading to the formation of an Information Flow Chart and Stakeholder Relationship Map. These were then tested via broad housing industry focus groups and surveys. The project revealed four key relationships that appear to operate in isolation to the whole housing sector and may have significant impact on the sustainability outcomes and life cycle costs of dwellings over their life cycle. It also found that although a lot of information about individual dwellings does already exist, this information is not coordinated or inventoried in any systematic manner and that national building information files of building passports would present value to a wide range of stakeholders.

Short-term traffic volume forecasting : a k-nearest neighbor approach enhanced by constrained linearly sewing principle component algorithm

To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Critical factors affecting the implementation of sustainable housing in Australia

Improved public awareness of the environment and available technologies will continue to highlight the importance of sustainable housing in the coming years. Despite this potential, the majority of new housing development in Australia is still “project homes” with few tangible sustainability measures. Stakeholders tend to have different perceptions and priorities on sustainability. To promote the uptake of sustainable housing products, a study of the critical issues affecting the implementation of sustainable housing is necessary. This research investigates multiple factors that may influence key stakeholders’ decision-making towards sustainable housing adoption. Drawing insights from combined questionnaire and interview studies, 12 critical factors and their interrelationships are identified based on professional views in the Australian housing industry. The mutual influences, or driving force and dependency, of these factors are further investigated via Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) to distinguish those requiring prominent and immediate attention. A hierarchical model is developed to help key stakeholders prioritise actions when implementing sustainable housing.

Livable housing design : the voluntary provision of inclusive housing in Australia

This paper reports on a study of the voluntary provision of inclusive housing. The impetus for the study is the Livable Housing Design initiative, an agreement among Australian housing industry and community leaders in 2010 to a national guideline and voluntary strategy with a target to provide minimum access features in all new housing by 2020. Situated in and around Brisbane, Australia, the study problematises the assumption that the housing industry will respond voluntarily; an assumption which this study concludes is unfounded. The Livable Housing Design initiative asks individual agents to consider the needs of people beyond the initial contract, to proceed with objective reasoning and to do the right thing voluntarily. Instead, the study found that interviewees focused on their immediate contractual obligations, were reluctant to change established practices and saw little reason to do more than was legally required of them. This paper argues that the highly-competitive and risk-averse nature of the industry works against a voluntary approach for inclusive housing and, if the 2020 target of the Livable Housing Design initiative is to be reached, a mandated approach through legislation will be necessary. The Livable Housing Design initiative, however, has an important role to play in preparing the Australian housing industry to accept further regulation.

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.