Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Sentinel-3 Mission Performance Centre: Ensuring a high-quality altimetric dataset

Sentinel-3A is scheduled for launch in Oct. 2015, with Sentinel-3B to follow 18 months later. Together these missions are to take oceanographic remote-sensing into a new operational realm. To achieve this a large number of processing, calibration and validation tasks have to be applied to their data in order to assess for quality, absolute bias, short-term changes and long-term drifts. ESA has funded the Sentinel-3 Mission Performance Centre (S3MPC) to carry out this evaluation on behalf of ESA and EUMETSAT. The S3MPC is run by a consortium led by ACRI [1] and this paper describes the work on the calibration/validation (cal/val) of the Surface Topography Mission (STM), which is co-ordinated by CLS and PML.

General rules for predicting where a catalytic reaction should occur on metal surfaces: A density functional theory study of C-H and C-O bond breaking/making on flat, stepped, and kinked metal surfaces

To predict where a catalytic reaction should occur is a fundamental issue scientifically. Technologically, it is also important because it can facilitate the catalyst's design. However, to date, the understanding of this issue is rather limited. In this work, two types of reactions, CH4 CH3 + H and CO C + 0 on two transition metal surfaces, were chosen as model systems aiming to address in general where a catalytic reaction should occur. The dissociations of CH4 - CH3 + H and CO --> C + O and their reverse reactions on flat, stepped, and kinked Rh and Pd surfaces were studied in detail. We find the following: First, for the CH4 Ch(3) + H reaction, the dissociation barrier is reduced by similar to0.3 eV on steps and kinks as compared to that on flat surfaces. On the other hand, there is essentially no difference in barrier for the association reaction of CH3 + H on the flat surfaces and the defects. Second, for the CO C + 0 reaction, the dissociation barrier decreases dramatically (more than 0.8 eV on Rh and Pd) on steps and kinks as compared to that on flat surfaces. In contrast to the CH3 + H reaction, the C + 0 association reaction also preferentially occurs on steps and kinks. We also present a detailed analysis of the reaction barriers in which each barrier is decomposed quantitatively into a local electronic effect and a geometrical effect. Our DFT calculations show that surface defects such as steps and kinks can largely facilitate bond breaking, while whether the surface defects could promote bond formation depends on the individual reaction as well as the particular metal. The physical origin of these trends is identified and discussed. On the basis of our results, we arrive at some simple rules with respect to where a reaction should occur: (i) defects such as steps are always favored for dissociation reactions as compared to flat surfaces; and (ii) the reaction site of the association reactions is largely related to the magnitude of the bonding competition effect, which is determined by the reactant and metal valency. Reactions with high valency reactants are more likely to occur on defects (more structure-sensitive), as compared to reactions with low valency reactants. Moreover, the reactions on late transition metals are more likely to proceed on defects than those on the early transition metals.

Investigating the Interhemisphere 14C Offset in the 1st Millennium AD and Assessment of Laboratory Bias and Calibration Errors

Past measurements of the radiocarbon interhemispheric offset have been restricted to relatively young samples because of a lack of older dendrochronologically secure Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. The Southern Hemisphere calibration data set SHCal04 earlier than AD 950 utilizes a variable interhemispheric offset derived from measured 2nd millennium AD Southern Hemisphere/Northern Hemisphere sample pairs with the assumption of stable Holocene ocean/ atmosphere interactions. This study extends the range of measured interhemispheric offset values with 20 decadal New Zealand kauri and Irish oak sample pairs from 3 selected time intervals in the 1st millennium AD and is part of a larger program to obtain high-precision Southern Hemisphere 14C data continuously back to 200 BC. We found an average interhemispheric offset of 35 ± 6 yr, which although consistent with previously published 2nd millennium AD measurements, is lower than the offset of 55–58 yr utilized in SHCal04. We concur with McCormac et al. (2008) that the IntCal04 measurement for AD 775 may indeed be slightly too old but also suggest the McCormac results appear excessively young for the interval AD 755–785. In addition, we raise the issue of laboratory bias and calibration errors, and encourage all laboratories to check their consistency with appropriate calibration curves and invest more effort into improving the accuracy of those curves.

High-volume haemofiltration for sepsis.

Background: Severe sepsis and septic shock are leading causes of death in the intensive care unit (ICU). This is despite advances in the management of patients with severe sepsis and septic shock including early recognition, source control, timely and appropriate administration of antimicrobial agents, and goal directed haemodynamic, ventilatory and metabolic therapies. High-volume haemofiltration (HVHF) is a blood purification technique which may improve outcomes in critically ill patients with severe sepsis or septic shock. The technique of HVHF has evolved from renal replacement therapies used to treat acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients in the ICU.

Objectives: This review assessed whether HVHF improves clinical outcome in adult critically ill patients with sepsis in an ICU setting.

Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library, 2011, Issue 7); MEDLINE (1990 to August 2011), EMBASE (1990 to August 2011); LILACS (1982 to August 2011), Web of Science (1990 to August 2011), CINAHL (1982 to August 2011) and specific websites.

Selection criteria: We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-randomized trials comparing HVHF or high-volume haemodiafiltration to standard or usual dialysis therapy; and RCTs and quasi-randomized trials comparing HVHF or high-volume haemodiafiltration to no similar dialysis therapy. The studies involved adults in critical care units.

Data collection and analysis: Three review authors independently extracted data and assessed trial quality. We sought additional information as required from trialists.

Main results: We included three randomized trials involving 64 participants. Due to the small number of studies and participants, it was not possible to combine data or perform sub-group analyses. One trial reported ICU and 28-day mortality, one trial reported hospital mortality and in the third, the number of deaths stated did not match the quoted mortality rates. No trials reported length of stay in ICU or hospital and one reported organ dysfunction. No adverse events were reported. Overall, the included studies had a low risk of bias.

Authors' conclusions: There were no adverse effects of HVHF reported.There is insufficient evidence to recommend the use of HVHF in critically ill patients with severe sepsis and or septic shock except as interventions being investigated in the setting of a randomized clinical trial. These trials should be large, multi-centred and have clinically relevant outcome measures. Financial implications should also be assessed.

Using sketch-map coordinates to analyze and bias molecular dynamics simulations

When examining complex problems, such as the folding of proteins, coarse grained descriptions of the system drive our investigation and help us to rationalize the results. Oftentimes collective variables (CVs), derived through some chemical intuition about the process of interest, serve this purpose. Because finding these CVs is the most difficult part of any investigation, we recently developed a dimensionality reduction algorithm, sketch-map, that can be used to build a low-dimensional map of a phase space of high-dimensionality. In this paper we discuss how these machine-generated CVs can be used to accelerate the exploration of phase space and to reconstruct free-energy landscapes. To do so, we develop a formalism in which high-dimensional configurations are no longer represented by low-dimensional position vectors. Instead, for each configuration we calculate a probability distribution, which has a domain that encompasses the entirety of the low-dimensional space. To construct a biasing potential, we exploit an analogy with metadynamics and use the trajectory to adaptively construct a repulsive, history-dependent bias from the distributions that correspond to the previously visited configurations. This potential forces the system to explore more of phase space by making it desirable to adopt configurations whose distributions do not overlap with the bias. We apply this algorithm to a small model protein and succeed in reproducing the free-energy surface that we obtain from a parallel tempering calculation.

The origin of high activity but low CO2 selectivity on binary PtSn in the direct ethanol fuel cell

The most active binary PtSn catalyst for direct ethanol fuel cell applications has been studied at 20 ^oC and 60 ^oC, using variable temperature electrochemical in-situ FTIR. In comparison with Pt, binary PtSn inhibits ethanol dissociation to CO(a), but promotes partial oxidation to acetaldehyde and acetic acid. Increasing the temperature from 20 ^oC to 60 ^oC facilitates both ethanol dissociation to CO(a) and their further oxidation to CO₂, leading to an increased selectivity towards CO₂; however, acetaldehyde and acetic acid are still the main products. Potential-dependent phase diagrams for surface oxidants of OH(a) formation on Pt(111), Pt(211) and Sn modified Pt(111) and Pt(211) surfaces have been determined using density functional theory (DFT) calculations. It is shown that Sn promotes the formation of OH(a) with a lower onset potential on the Pt(111) surface, whereas an increase in the onset potential is found on modification of the (211) surface. In addition, Sn inhibits the Pt(211) step edge with respect to ethanol C-C bond breaking compared with that found on the pure Pt, which reduces the formation of CO(a). Sn was also found to facilitate ethanol dehydrogenation and partial oxidation to acetaldehyde and acetic acid which, combined with the more facile OH(a) formation on the Pt(111) surface, gives us a clear understanding of the experimentally determined results. This combined electrochemical in-situ FTIR and DFT study, provides, for the first time, an insight into the long-term puzzling features of the high activity but low CO₂ production found on binary PtSn ethanol fuel cell catalysts.

Structure, mechanical, and electrical properties of high-density polyethylene/multi-walled carbon nanotube composites processed by compression molding and blown film extrusion

The structure and properties of melt mixed high-density polyethylene/multi-walled carbon nanotube (HDPE/MWCNT) composites processed by compression molding and blown film extrusion were investigated to assess the influence of processing route on properties. The addition of MWCNTs leads to a more elastic response during deformations that result in a more uniform thick-ness distribution in the blown films. Blown film composites exhibit better mechanical properties due to the enhanced orientation and disentanglement of MWCNTs. At a blow up ratio (BUR) of 3 the breaking strength and elongation in the machine direction of the film with 4 wt % MWCNTs are 239% and 1054% higher than those of compression molded (CM) samples. Resistivity of the composite films increases significantly with increasing BURs due to the destruction of conductive pathways. These pathways can be recovered partially using an appropriate annealing process. At 8 wt % MWCNTs, there is a sufficient density of nanotubes to maintain a robust network even at high BURs.

Magnetic Characteristics of a High-layer-number NiFe/FeMn Multilayer

We report the static & dynamic magnetic characteristics of a high-layer-number NiFe/FeMn multilayer test structure with potential applications in broadband absorber and filter devices. To allow fine control over the absorption linewidths and to understand the mechanisms governing the resonances in a tailored structure similar to that expected to be used in real world applications, the multilayer was intentionally designed to have layer thickness and interface roughness variations. Magnetometry measurements show the sample has complex hysteresis loops with features consistent with single ferromagnetic film reversals. Structural characterisation by transmission electron microscopy allows us to correlate the magnetic properties with structural features. Analysis of resonance frequencies from broadband ferromagnetic resonance measurements as a function of field magnitude and orientation provide values of the local exchange bias, rotatable anisotropy, and uniaxial anisotropy fields for specific layers in the stack and explain the observed mode softening. The linewidths of the multilayer are adjustable around the bias field, approaching twice that seen at larger fields, allowing control over the bandwidth of devices formed from the structure.

Effect of high temperature, biaxial stretching on the thermal and mechanical properties of HDPE/MWCNT sheet

High density polyethylene (HDPE)/multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) composites containing 4 wt% MWCNTs were prepared by melt mixing followed by compression moulding into sheet. Compression moulded sheets were heated to just below the melting temperature and biaxially stretched at ratios (SRs) of 2, 2.5 and 3.0. The effect of stretching on the thermal and mechanical properties of the sheet was studied by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and tensile testing. DSC results show that the crystallinity of all the stretched samples increases by approximately 13% due to strain induced crystallization. The melting temperature of the biaxially stretched samples increases only slightly while crystallization temperature is not affected. Tensile test results indicate that at a SR of 2.5 the elastic modulus of the stretched composites increases by 17.6% relative to the virgin HDPE, but the breaking strength decreases by 33%. While the elastic modulus and breaking strength of the HDPE/MWCNT samples continue to increase as SR increases they drop off after a SR of 2.5 for the virgin HDPE. This is probably due to the constraining influence of the nanotubes preventing the relaxation of polymer chains caused by adiabatic heating at high SRs. The addition of MWCNTs results in significant strain hardening during deformation. While this will lead to increased energy requirement in forming it will also result in a more stable process and the ability to produce deep draw containers with more uniform wall thickness

Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Mapping Bias Overestimates Reference Allele Frequencies at the HLA Genes in the 1000 Genomes Project Phase I Data.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have become the standard for data generation in studies of population genomics, as the 1000 Genomes Project (1000G). However, these techniques are known to be problematic when applied to highly polymorphic genomic regions, such as the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes. Because accurate genotype calls and allele frequency estimations are crucial to population genomics analyses, it is important to assess the reliability of NGS data. Here, we evaluate the reliability of genotype calls and allele frequency estimates of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reported by 1000G (phase I) at five HLA genes (HLA-A, -B, -C, -DRB1, and -DQB1). We take advantage of the availability of HLA Sanger sequencing of 930 of the 1092 1000G samples and use this as a gold standard to benchmark the 1000G data. We document that 18.6% of SNP genotype calls in HLA genes are incorrect and that allele frequencies are estimated with an error greater than ±0.1 at approximately 25% of the SNPs in HLA genes. We found a bias toward overestimation of reference allele frequency for the 1000G data, indicating mapping bias is an important cause of error in frequency estimation in this dataset. We provide a list of sites that have poor allele frequency estimates and discuss the outcomes of including those sites in different kinds of analyses. Because the HLA region is the most polymorphic in the human genome, our results provide insights into the challenges of using of NGS data at other genomic regions of high diversity.

Subjective Ambivalence and the Expression of Anti-Gay Bias

Univalent attitudes toward gay people have been widely studied, but no research to date has examined ambivalent (i.e., torn, conflicted) attitudes toward gay people. However, the Justification-Suppression Model (JSM; Crandall & Eshleman, 2003) proposes that ambivalence leads to biased expressions through intrapsychic processes which facilitate biased expression, particularly in contexts presenting strong justifications for expressing prejudice and weak pressures to suppress prejudice. I test these implications in the context of bias toward gay people. In Study 1, the measurement of ambivalence is examined in terms of both subjective ambivalence (i.e., the reported experience of “torn” attitudes) and calculated ambivalence (i.e., mathematical conflict between positive and negative attitude components). I find that higher subjective ambivalence is only associated with more negative attitudes toward gay people (and not positive attitudes toward gay people), and that higher subjective ambivalence predicts less gay rights support even after taking negative and positive attitudes toward gay people into account. Further, higher subjective ambivalence is associated with ideological opposition to gay people and more negative intergroup emotions (e.g., intergroup disgust). These findings suggest it is valuable to examine the unique component of subjective ambivalence separate from univalent negativity. Because calculated ambivalence measures are mathematically dependent upon a univalent negative measure, they cannot be examined separately from negativity. Therefore, subjective ambivalence is the focus of Study 2. The main goals of Study 2 were to determine why and when subjective ambivalence is related to bias. I examined the extent to which the negative relation between subjective ambivalence and opposition to anti-gay bullying can be accounted for by lower intergroup empathy and lower collective guilt, which may facilitate the expression of bias in keeping with the JSM. The relation between subjective ambivalence and anti-gay bullying opposition was examined within four social contexts based on a 2 (high vs. low offensiveness) x 2 (normatively unjustified vs. normatively justified) manipulation. I expected that higher subjective ambivalence would be most strongly related to lower intergroup empathy and collective guilt when there are the strongest justifications for bias expression, and that lower intergroup empathy and collective guilt would lead to less opposition to anti-gay bullying. Higher subjective ambivalence predicted less anti-gay bullying opposition. After accounting for positivity and negativity, the direct effect of subjective ambivalence was no longer significant, yet subjective ambivalence uniquely predicted intergroup empathy, which in turn predicted less anti-gay bullying opposition. These findings provide evidence that subjective ambivalence is largely negative in nature, but also presents evidence for a unique component of subjective ambivalence (separate from univalent attitudes) associated with low intergroup empathy and negativity. In contrast to previous research, I found very little evidence for the context-dependency of subjective ambivalence. Further research on subjective ambivalence, including subjective ambivalence toward other social groups, may expand our understanding of the factors leading to biased expressions.

Individual Differences in Global/Local Processing Bias and the Attentional Blink

When the second of two targets (T2) is presented temporally close to the first target (T1) in rapid serial visual presentation, accuracy to detect/identify T2 is markedly reduced as compared to longer target separations. This is known as the attentional blink (AB), and is thought to reflect a limitation of selective attention. While most individuals show an AB, research has demonstrated that individuals are variously susceptible to this effect. To explain these differences, Dale and Arnell (2010) examined whether dispositional differences in attentional breadth, as measured by the Navon letter task, could predict individual AB magnitude. They found that individuals who showed a natural bias toward the broad, global level of Navon letter stimuli were less susceptible to the AB as compared to individuals who showed a natural bias toward the detailed, local aspects of Navon letter stimuli. This suggests that individuals who naturally broaden their attention can overcome the AB. However, it was unclear how stable these individual differences were over time, and whether a variety of global/local tasks could predict AB performance. As such, the purpose of this dissertation was to investigate, through four empirical studies, the nature of individual differences in both global/local bias and the AB, and how these differences in attentional breadth can modulate AB performance. Study 1 was designed to examine the stability of dispositional global/local biases over time, as well as the relationships among three different global/local processing measures. Study 2 examined the stability of individual differences in the AB, as well as the relationship among two distinct AB tasks. Study 3 examined whether the three distinct global/local tasks used in Study 1 could predict performance on the two AB tasks from Study 2. Finally, Study 4 explored whether individual differences in global/local bias could be manipulated by exposing participants to high/low spatial frequencies and Navon stimuli. In Study 1, I showed that dispositional differences in global/local bias were reliable over a period of at least a week, demonstrating that these individual biases may be trait-like. However, the three tasks that purportedly measure global/local bias were unrelated to each other, suggesting that they measure unique aspects of global/local processing. In Study 2, I found that individual variation in AB performance was also reliable over a period of at least a week, and that the two AB task versions were correlated. Study 3 showed that dispositional global/local biases, as measured by the three tasks from Study 1, predicted AB magnitude, such that individuals who were naturally globally biased had smaller ABs. Finally, in Study 4 I demonstrated that these dispositional global/local biases are resistant to both spatial frequency and Navon letter manipulations, indicating that these differences are robust and intractable. Overall, the results of the four studies in this dissertation help clarify the role of individual differences in attentional breadth in selective attention.