Assessing the construct validity of a measure of learning agility

This study examined the construct validity of the Choices questionnaire that purported to support the theory of Learning Agility. Specifically, Learning Agility attempts to predict an individual's potential performance in new tasks. The construct validity will be measured by examining the convergent/discriminant validity of the Choices Questionnaire against a cognitive ability measure and two personality measures. The Choices Questionnaire did tap a construct that is unique to the cognitive ability and the personality measures, thus suggesting that this measure may have considerable value in personnel selection. This study also examined the relationship of this pew measure to job performance and job promotability. Results of this study found that the Choices Questionnaire predicted job performance and job promotability above and beyond cognitive ability and personality. Data from 107 law enforcement officers, along with two of their co-workers and a supervisor resulted in a correlation of .08 between Learning Agility and cognitive ability. Learning Agility correlated .07 with Learning Goal Orientation and. 17 with Performance Goal Orientation. Correlations with the Big Five Personality factors ranged from −.06 to. 13 with Conscientiousness and Openness to Experience, respectively. Learning Agility correlated .40 with supervisory ratings of job promotability and correlated .3 7 with supervisory ratings of overall job performance. Hierarchical regression analysis found incremental validity for Learning Agility over cognitive ability and the Big Five factors of personality for supervisory ratings of both promotability and overall job performance. A literature review was completed to integrate the Learning Agility construct into a nomological net of personnel selection research. Additionally, practical applications and future research directions are discussed. ^

Learning from Geometry

Subspaces and manifolds are two powerful models for high dimensional signals. Subspaces model linear correlation and are a good fit to signals generated by physical systems, such as frontal images of human faces and multiple sources impinging at an antenna array. Manifolds model sources that are not linearly correlated, but where signals are determined by a small number of parameters. Examples are images of human faces under different poses or expressions, and handwritten digits with varying styles. However, there will always be some degree of model mismatch between the subspace or manifold model and the true statistics of the source. This dissertation exploits subspace and manifold models as prior information in various signal processing and machine learning tasks.

A near-low-rank Gaussian mixture model measures proximity to a union of linear or affine subspaces. This simple model can effectively capture the signal distribution when each class is near a subspace. This dissertation studies how the pairwise geometry between these subspaces affects classification performance. When model mismatch is vanishingly small, the probability of misclassification is determined by the product of the sines of the principal angles between subspaces. When the model mismatch is more significant, the probability of misclassification is determined by the sum of the squares of the sines of the principal angles. Reliability of classification is derived in terms of the distribution of signal energy across principal vectors. Larger principal angles lead to smaller classification error, motivating a linear transform that optimizes principal angles. This linear transformation, termed TRAIT, also preserves some specific features in each class, being complementary to a recently developed Low Rank Transform (LRT). Moreover, when the model mismatch is more significant, TRAIT shows superior performance compared to LRT.

The manifold model enforces a constraint on the freedom of data variation. Learning features that are robust to data variation is very important, especially when the size of the training set is small. A learning machine with large numbers of parameters, e.g., deep neural network, can well describe a very complicated data distribution. However, it is also more likely to be sensitive to small perturbations of the data, and to suffer from suffer from degraded performance when generalizing to unseen (test) data.

From the perspective of complexity of function classes, such a learning machine has a huge capacity (complexity), which tends to overfit. The manifold model provides us with a way of regularizing the learning machine, so as to reduce the generalization error, therefore mitigate overfiting. Two different overfiting-preventing approaches are proposed, one from the perspective of data variation, the other from capacity/complexity control. In the first approach, the learning machine is encouraged to make decisions that vary smoothly for data points in local neighborhoods on the manifold. In the second approach, a graph adjacency matrix is derived for the manifold, and the learned features are encouraged to be aligned with the principal components of this adjacency matrix. Experimental results on benchmark datasets are demonstrated, showing an obvious advantage of the proposed approaches when the training set is small.

Stochastic optimization makes it possible to track a slowly varying subspace underlying streaming data. By approximating local neighborhoods using affine subspaces, a slowly varying manifold can be efficiently tracked as well, even with corrupted and noisy data. The more the local neighborhoods, the better the approximation, but the higher the computational complexity. A multiscale approximation scheme is proposed, where the local approximating subspaces are organized in a tree structure. Splitting and merging of the tree nodes then allows efficient control of the number of neighbourhoods. Deviation (of each datum) from the learned model is estimated, yielding a series of statistics for anomaly detection. This framework extends the classical {\em changepoint detection} technique, which only works for one dimensional signals. Simulations and experiments highlight the robustness and efficacy of the proposed approach in detecting an abrupt change in an otherwise slowly varying low-dimensional manifold.

Essays in Empirical Operations Management: Bayesian Learning of Service Quality and Structural Estimation of Complementary Product Pricing and Inventory Management

This dissertation contributes to the rapidly growing empirical research area in the field of operations management. It contains two essays, tackling two different sets of operations management questions which are motivated by and built on field data sets from two very different industries --- air cargo logistics and retailing.

The first essay, based on the data set obtained from a world leading third-party logistics company, develops a novel and general Bayesian hierarchical learning framework for estimating customers' spillover learning, that is, customers' learning about the quality of a service (or product) from their previous experiences with similar yet not identical services. We then apply our model to the data set to study how customers' experiences from shipping on a particular route affect their future decisions about shipping not only on that route, but also on other routes serviced by the same logistics company. We find that customers indeed borrow experiences from similar but different services to update their quality beliefs that determine future purchase decisions. Also, service quality beliefs have a significant impact on their future purchasing decisions. Moreover, customers are risk averse; they are averse to not only experience variability but also belief uncertainty (i.e., customer's uncertainty about their beliefs). Finally, belief uncertainty affects customers' utilities more compared to experience variability.

The second essay is based on a data set obtained from a large Chinese supermarket chain, which contains sales as well as both wholesale and retail prices of un-packaged perishable vegetables. Recognizing the special characteristics of this particularly product category, we develop a structural estimation model in a discrete-continuous choice model framework. Building on this framework, we then study an optimization model for joint pricing and inventory management strategies of multiple products, which aims at improving the company's profit from direct sales and at the same time reducing food waste and thus improving social welfare.

Collectively, the studies in this dissertation provide useful modeling ideas, decision tools, insights, and guidance for firms to utilize vast sales and operations data to devise more effective business strategies.

Bayesian Learning with Dependency Structures via Latent Factors, Mixtures, and Copulas

Bayesian methods offer a flexible and convenient probabilistic learning framework to extract interpretable knowledge from complex and structured data. Such methods can characterize dependencies among multiple levels of hidden variables and share statistical strength across heterogeneous sources. In the first part of this dissertation, we develop two dependent variational inference methods for full posterior approximation in non-conjugate Bayesian models through hierarchical mixture- and copula-based variational proposals, respectively. The proposed methods move beyond the widely used factorized approximation to the posterior and provide generic applicability to a broad class of probabilistic models with minimal model-specific derivations. In the second part of this dissertation, we design probabilistic graphical models to accommodate multimodal data, describe dynamical behaviors and account for task heterogeneity. In particular, the sparse latent factor model is able to reveal common low-dimensional structures from high-dimensional data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed statistical learning methods on both synthetic and real-world data.

A Molecular-scale Programmable Stochastic Process Based On Resonance Energy Transfer Networks: Modeling And Applications

While molecular and cellular processes are often modeled as stochastic processes, such as Brownian motion, chemical reaction networks and gene regulatory networks, there are few attempts to program a molecular-scale process to physically implement stochastic processes. DNA has been used as a substrate for programming molecular interactions, but its applications are restricted to deterministic functions and unfavorable properties such as slow processing, thermal annealing, aqueous solvents and difficult readout limit them to proof-of-concept purposes. To date, whether there exists a molecular process that can be programmed to implement stochastic processes for practical applications remains unknown.

In this dissertation, a fully specified Resonance Energy Transfer (RET) network between chromophores is accurately fabricated via DNA self-assembly, and the exciton dynamics in the RET network physically implement a stochastic process, specifically a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), which has a direct mapping to the physical geometry of the chromophore network. Excited by a light source, a RET network generates random samples in the temporal domain in the form of fluorescence photons which can be detected by a photon detector. The intrinsic sampling distribution of a RET network is derived as a phase-type distribution configured by its CTMC model. The conclusion is that the exciton dynamics in a RET network implement a general and important class of stochastic processes that can be directly and accurately programmed and used for practical applications of photonics and optoelectronics. Different approaches to using RET networks exist with vast potential applications. As an entropy source that can directly generate samples from virtually arbitrary distributions, RET networks can benefit applications that rely on generating random samples such as 1) fluorescent taggants and 2) stochastic computing.

By using RET networks between chromophores to implement fluorescent taggants with temporally coded signatures, the taggant design is not constrained by resolvable dyes and has a significantly larger coding capacity than spectrally or lifetime coded fluorescent taggants. Meanwhile, the taggant detection process becomes highly efficient, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) based taggant identification guarantees high accuracy even with only a few hundred detected photons.

Meanwhile, RET-based sampling units (RSU) can be constructed to accelerate probabilistic algorithms for wide applications in machine learning and data analytics. Because probabilistic algorithms often rely on iteratively sampling from parameterized distributions, they can be inefficient in practice on the deterministic hardware traditional computers use, especially for high-dimensional and complex problems. As an efficient universal sampling unit, the proposed RSU can be integrated into a processor / GPU as specialized functional units or organized as a discrete accelerator to bring substantial speedups and power savings.

An Investigation of the Features and Effectiveness of the Full-Day Early Learning Kindergarten Program in Ontario

This dissertation includes two studies. Study 1 is a qualitative case study that describes enactment of the main components of a high fidelity Full-Day Early Learning Kindergarten (FDELK) classroom, specifically play-based learning and teacher-ECE collaboration. Study 2 is a quantitative analysis that investigates how effectively the FDELK program promotes school readiness skills, namely self-regulation, literacy, and numeracy, in Kindergarteners. To describe the main components of an FDELK classroom in Study 1, a sub-sample of four high fidelity case study schools were selected from a larger case study sample. Interview data from these schools’ administrators, educators, parents, and community stakeholders were used to describe how the main components of the FDELK program enabled educators to meet the individual needs of students and promote students’ SR development. In Study 2, hierarchical regression analyses of 32,207 students’ self-regulation, literacy, and numeracy outcomes using 2012 Ontario Early Development Instrument (EDI) data revealed essentially no benefit for students participating in the FDELK program when compared to peers in Half-Day or Alternate-Day Kindergarten programs. Being older and female predicted more positive SR and literacy outcomes. Age and gender accounted for limited variance in numeracy outcomes. Results from both studies suggest that the Ontario Ministry of Education should take steps to improve the quality of the FDELK program by incorporating evidence-based guidelines and goals for play, reducing Kindergarten class sizes to more effectively scaffold learning, and revising curriculum expectations to include a greater focus on SR, literacy, and numeracy skills.

Directed Selection using Reinforcement Learning for the Examination Timetabling Problem

Traditional heuristic approaches to the Examination Timetabling Problem normally utilize a stochastic method during Optimization for the selection of the next examination to be considered for timetabling within the neighbourhood search process. This paper presents a technique whereby the stochastic method has been augmented with information from a weighted list gathered during the initial adaptive construction phase, with the purpose of intelligently directing examination selection. In addition, a Reinforcement Learning technique has been adapted to identify the most effective portions of the weighted list in terms of facilitating the greatest potential for overall solution improvement. The technique is tested against the 2007 International Timetabling Competition datasets with solutions generated within a time frame specified by the competition organizers. The results generated are better than those of the competition winner in seven of the twelve examinations, while being competitive for the remaining five examinations. This paper also shows experimentally how using reinforcement learning has improved upon our previous technique.

Job-demand for Learning, Job-related Learning and Need for Achievement

Individual learning is important, as it is both a precursor and an outcome of learning in organisations. Job-related learning is driven by external factors (e.g., the demands of the job) and internal factors (i.e., the personality of the individual). The study examined whether need for achievement moderates the relationship between job-demand for learning and job-related learning. Data were obtained from 153 full-time, white-collar employees from a range of industries. Hierarchical regression analysis using the product term revealed that need for achievement moderates the relationship between job-demand for learning and job-related learning. Specifically, although job-demand for learning is correlated positively to job-related learning for both the high and the low need for achievement groups, this correlation is stronger amongst the high group. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for future research and practice.

Convex Optimization Algorithms and Statistical Bounds for Learning Structured Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Structure learning of context-specific graphical models

Abstract The ultimate problem considered in this thesis is modeling a high-dimensional joint distribution over a set of discrete variables. For this purpose, we consider classes of context-specific graphical models and the main emphasis is on learning the structure of such models from data. Traditional graphical models compactly represent a joint distribution through a factorization justi ed by statements of conditional independence which are encoded by a graph structure. Context-speci c independence is a natural generalization of conditional independence that only holds in a certain context, speci ed by the conditioning variables. We introduce context-speci c generalizations of both Bayesian networks and Markov networks by including statements of context-specific independence which can be encoded as a part of the model structures. For the purpose of learning context-speci c model structures from data, we derive score functions, based on results from Bayesian statistics, by which the plausibility of a structure is assessed. To identify high-scoring structures, we construct stochastic and deterministic search algorithms designed to exploit the structural decomposition of our score functions. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that the increased exibility of context-specific structures can more accurately emulate the dependence structure among the variables and thereby improve the predictive accuracy of the models.

EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF TEACHER PRACTICE ON STUDENT LEARNING IN INTERACTIVE RADIO INSTRUCTION (IRI) CLASSROOMS: LESSONS FROM NEW DELHI AND RAJASTHAN (INDIA)

This quantitative study examines the impact of teacher practices on student achievement in classrooms where the English is Fun Interactive Radio Instruction (IRI) programs were being used. A contemporary IRI design using a dual-audience approach, the English is Fun IRI programs delivered daily English language instruction to students in grades 1 and 2 in Delhi and Rajasthan through 120 30-minute programs via broadcast radio (the first audience) while modeling pedagogical techniques and behaviors for their teachers (the second audience). Few studies have examined how the dual-audience approach influences student learning. Using existing data from 32 teachers and 696 students, this study utilizes a multivariate multilevel model to examine the role of the primary expectations for teachers (e.g., setting up the IRI classroom, following instructions from the radio characters and ensuring students are participating) and the role of secondary expectations for teachers (e.g., modeling pedagogies and facilitating learning beyond the instructions) in promoting students’ learning in English listening skills, knowledge of vocabulary and use of sentences. The study finds that teacher practice on both sets of expectations mattered, but that practice in the secondary expectations mattered more. As expected, students made the smallest gains in the most difficult linguistic task (sentence use). The extent to which teachers satisfied the primary and secondary expectations was associated with gains in all three skills – confirming the relationship between students’ English proficiency and teacher practice in a dual-audience program. When it came to gains in students’ scores in sentence use, a teacher whose focus was greater on primary expectations had a negative effect on student performance in both states. In all, teacher practice clearly mattered but not in the same way for all three skills. An optimal scenario for teacher practice is presented in which gains in all three skills are maximized. These findings have important implications for the way the classroom teacher is cast in IRI programs that utilize a dual-audience approach and in the way IRI programs are contracted insofar as the role of the teacher in instruction is minimized and access is limited to instructional support from the IRI lessons alone.

Datasets, features, learning, and models in visual recognition

Visual recognition is a fundamental research topic in computer vision. This dissertation explores datasets, features, learning, and models used for visual recognition. In order to train visual models and evaluate different recognition algorithms, this dissertation develops an approach to collect object image datasets on web pages using an analysis of text around the image and of image appearance. This method exploits established online knowledge resources (Wikipedia pages for text; Flickr and Caltech data sets for images). The resources provide rich text and object appearance information. This dissertation describes results on two datasets. The first is Berg’s collection of 10 animal categories; on this dataset, we significantly outperform previous approaches. On an additional set of 5 categories, experimental results show the effectiveness of the method. Images are represented as features for visual recognition. This dissertation introduces a text-based image feature and demonstrates that it consistently improves performance on hard object classification problems. The feature is built using an auxiliary dataset of images annotated with tags, downloaded from the Internet. Image tags are noisy. The method obtains the text features of an unannotated image from the tags of its k-nearest neighbors in this auxiliary collection. A visual classifier presented with an object viewed under novel circumstances (say, a new viewing direction) must rely on its visual examples. This text feature may not change, because the auxiliary dataset likely contains a similar picture. While the tags associated with images are noisy, they are more stable when appearance changes. The performance of this feature is tested using PASCAL VOC 2006 and 2007 datasets. This feature performs well; it consistently improves the performance of visual object classifiers, and is particularly effective when the training dataset is small. With more and more collected training data, computational cost becomes a bottleneck, especially when training sophisticated classifiers such as kernelized SVM. This dissertation proposes a fast training algorithm called Stochastic Intersection Kernel Machine (SIKMA). This proposed training method will be useful for many vision problems, as it can produce a kernel classifier that is more accurate than a linear classifier, and can be trained on tens of thousands of examples in two minutes. It processes training examples one by one in a sequence, so memory cost is no longer the bottleneck to process large scale datasets. This dissertation applies this approach to train classifiers of Flickr groups with many group training examples. The resulting Flickr group prediction scores can be used to measure image similarity between two images. Experimental results on the Corel dataset and a PASCAL VOC dataset show the learned Flickr features perform better on image matching, retrieval, and classification than conventional visual features. Visual models are usually trained to best separate positive and negative training examples. However, when recognizing a large number of object categories, there may not be enough training examples for most objects, due to the intrinsic long-tailed distribution of objects in the real world. This dissertation proposes an approach to use comparative object similarity. The key insight is that, given a set of object categories which are similar and a set of categories which are dissimilar, a good object model should respond more strongly to examples from similar categories than to examples from dissimilar categories. This dissertation develops a regularized kernel machine algorithm to use this category dependent similarity regularization. Experiments on hundreds of categories show that our method can make significant improvement for categories with few or even no positive examples.

Perceived learning environments and metacognitive strategy knowledge at the upper secondary school level

There is evidence that students benefit from teachers’ explicit fostering of metacognitive strategy knowledge (MSK). However, there is insufficient understanding about the effect of implicit promotion of MSK in regular school instruction. This study investigates the relationship between perceived characteristics of learning environments (social climate, support, autonomy, self-reflection) and students’ MSK. A representative cohort of students (Nt1 = 1,272/Nt2 = 1,126) in Grades 10 and 11 at schools at the upper secondary education level (ISCED Level 3A) in Switzerland participated in this two-wave longitudinal study. Multilevel analysis showed effects on both the individual and the class level. Students who experienced higher social integration showed a higher extent of MSK at the beginning of the school year than students who experienced less social integration. Perceived autonomy was also positively related to students’ MSK on the individual level. In contrast, the results showed a negative relationship between perceived self-reflection and students’ MSK. On the class level, there was a negative relationship between self-reflection and students’ MSK. Teachers’ support did not correlate with students’ MSK on either the individual or the class level. Implications of these results for education and further studies are discussed. (DIPF/Orig.)

Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

An adaptive neighborhood search algorithm for optimizing stochastic mining complexes

Les métaheuristiques sont très utilisées dans le domaine de l'optimisation discrète. Elles permettent d’obtenir une solution de bonne qualité en un temps raisonnable, pour des problèmes qui sont de grande taille, complexes, et difficiles à résoudre. Souvent, les métaheuristiques ont beaucoup de paramètres que l’utilisateur doit ajuster manuellement pour un problème donné. L'objectif d'une métaheuristique adaptative est de permettre l'ajustement automatique de certains paramètres par la méthode, en se basant sur l’instance à résoudre. La métaheuristique adaptative, en utilisant les connaissances préalables dans la compréhension du problème, des notions de l'apprentissage machine et des domaines associés, crée une méthode plus générale et automatique pour résoudre des problèmes. L’optimisation globale des complexes miniers vise à établir les mouvements des matériaux dans les mines et les flux de traitement afin de maximiser la valeur économique du système. Souvent, en raison du grand nombre de variables entières dans le modèle, de la présence de contraintes complexes et de contraintes non-linéaires, il devient prohibitif de résoudre ces modèles en utilisant les optimiseurs disponibles dans l’industrie. Par conséquent, les métaheuristiques sont souvent utilisées pour l’optimisation de complexes miniers. Ce mémoire améliore un procédé de recuit simulé développé par Goodfellow & Dimitrakopoulos (2016) pour l’optimisation stochastique des complexes miniers stochastiques. La méthode développée par les auteurs nécessite beaucoup de paramètres pour fonctionner. Un de ceux-ci est de savoir comment la méthode de recuit simulé cherche dans le voisinage local de solutions. Ce mémoire implémente une méthode adaptative de recherche dans le voisinage pour améliorer la qualité d'une solution. Les résultats numériques montrent une augmentation jusqu'à 10% de la valeur de la fonction économique.