Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation

The paper proposes a numerical solution method for general equilibrium models with a continuum of heterogeneous agents, which combines elements of projection and of perturbation methods. The basic idea is to solve first for the stationary solutionof the model, without aggregate shocks but with fully specified idiosyncratic shocks. Afterwards one computes a first-order perturbation of the solution in the aggregate shocks. This approach allows to include a high-dimensional representation of the cross-sectional distribution in the state vector. The method is applied to a model of household saving with uninsurable income risk and liquidity constraints. The model includes not only productivity shocks, but also shocks to redistributive taxation, which cause substantial short-run variation in the cross-sectional distribution of wealth. If those shocks are operative, it is shown that a solution method based on very few statistics of the distribution is not suitable, while the proposed method can solve the model with high accuracy, at least for the case of small aggregate shocks. Techniques are discussed to reduce the dimension of the state space such that higher order perturbations are feasible.Matlab programs to solve the model can be downloaded.

Evolution in heterogeneous populations: from migration models to fixation probabilities.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Quantitative comparison of simulations of seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous poro-elastic media involving fluid-solid interfaces and in equivalent visco-elastic solids

There is increasing evidence to suggest that the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities constitutes the predominant attenuation mechanism at seismic frequencies. As a consequence, centimeter-scale perturbations of the subsurface physical properties should be taken into account for seismic modeling whenever detailed and accurate responses of the target structures are desired. This is, however, computationally prohibitive since extremely small grid spacings would be necessary. A convenient way to circumvent this problem is to use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous porous media by equivalent visco-elastic solids. In this work, we solve Biot's equations of motion to perform numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation through porous media containing mesoscopic heterogeneities. We then use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous poro-elastic regions by homogeneous equivalent visco-elastic solids and repeat the simulations using visco-elastic equations of motion. We find that, despite the equivalent attenuation behavior of the heterogeneous poro-elastic medium and the equivalent visco-elastic solid, the seismograms may differ due to diverging boundary conditions at fluid-solid interfaces, where there exist additional options for the poro-elastic case. In particular, we observe that the seismograms agree for closed-pore boundary conditions, but differ significantly for open-pore boundary conditions. This is an interesting result, which has potentially important implications for wave-equation-based algorithms in exploration geophysics involving fluid-solid interfaces, such as, for example, wave field decomposition.

Learning and adaptation in physical heterogeneous teams of robots

In this paper we present a novel approach to assigning roles to robots in a team of physical heterogeneous robots. Its members compete for these roles and get rewards for them. The rewards are used to determine each agent’s preferences and which agents are better adapted to the environment. These aspects are included in the decision making process. Agent interactions are modelled using the concept of an ecosystem in which each robot is a species, resulting in emergent behaviour of the whole set of agents. One of the most important features of this approach is its high adaptability. Unlike some other learning techniques, this approach does not need to start a whole exploitation process when the environment changes. All this is exemplified by means of experiments run on a simulator. In addition, the algorithm developed was applied as applied to several teams of robots in order to analyse the impact of heterogeneity in these systems

Heterogeneous discounting in consumption-investment problems. Time consistent solutions

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza un model estocàstic en temps continu en el que l'agent decisor descompta les utilitats instantànies i la funció final amb taxes de preferència temporal constants però diferents. En aquest context es poden modelitzar problemes en els quals, quan el temps s'acosta al moment final, la valoració de la funció final incrementa en comparació amb les utilitats instantànies. Aquest tipus d'asimetria no es pot descriure ni amb un descompte estàndard ni amb un variable. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es deriva l'equació de programació dinàmica estocàstica, les solucions de la qual són equilibris Markovians. Per a aquest tipus de preferències temporals, s'estudia el model clàssic de consum i inversió (Merton, 1971) per a les funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA, comparant els equilibris Markovians amb les solucions inconsistents temporalment. Finalment es discuteix la introducció del temps final aleatori.

Accurate and efficient simulation of multiphase flow in a heterogeneous reservoir by using error estimate and control in the multiscale finite-volume framework

The multiscale finite-volume (MSFV) method is designed to reduce the computational cost of elliptic and parabolic problems with highly heterogeneous anisotropic coefficients. The reduction is achieved by splitting the original global problem into a set of local problems (with approximate local boundary conditions) coupled by a coarse global problem. It has been shown recently that the numerical errors in MSFV results can be reduced systematically with an iterative procedure that provides a conservative velocity field after any iteration step. The iterative MSFV (i-MSFV) method can be obtained with an improved (smoothed) multiscale solution to enhance the localization conditions, with a Krylov subspace method [e.g., the generalized-minimal-residual (GMRES) algorithm] preconditioned by the MSFV system, or with a combination of both. In a multiphase-flow system, a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency should be achieved by finding a minimum number of i-MSFV iterations (on pressure), which is necessary to achieve the desired accuracy in the saturation solution. In this work, we extend the i-MSFV method to sequential implicit simulation of time-dependent problems. To control the error of the coupled saturation/pressure system, we analyze the transport error caused by an approximate velocity field. We then propose an error-control strategy on the basis of the residual of the pressure equation. At the beginning of simulation, the pressure solution is iterated until a specified accuracy is achieved. To minimize the number of iterations in a multiphase-flow problem, the solution at the previous timestep is used to improve the localization assumption at the current timestep. Additional iterations are used only when the residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Numerical results show that only a few iterations on average are necessary to improve the MSFV results significantly, even for very challenging problems. Therefore, the proposed adaptive strategy yields efficient and accurate simulation of multiphase flow in heterogeneous porous media.

Contribution of Topography and Incident Solar Radiation to Variation of Soil and Plant Litter at an Area with Heterogeneous Terrain

Natural processes that determine soil and plant litter properties are controlled by multiple factors. However, little attention has been given to distinguishing the effects of environmental factors from the effects of spatial structure of the area on the distribution of soil and litter properties in tropical ecosystems covering heterogeneous topographies. The aim of this study was to assess patterns of soil and litter variation in a tropical area that intercepts different levels of solar radiation throughout the year since its topography has slopes predominantly facing opposing geographic directions. Soil data (pH, C, N, P, H+Al, Ca, Mg, K, Al, Na, sand, and silt) and plant litter data (N, K, Ca, P, and Mg) were gathered together with the geographic coordinates (to model the spatial structure) of 40 sampling units established at two sites composed of slopes predominantly facing northwest and southeast (20 units each). Soil and litter chemical properties varied more among slopes within similar geographic orientations than between the slopes facing opposing directions. Both the incident solar radiation and the spatial structure of the area were relevant in explaining the patterns detected in variation of soil and plant litter. Individual contributions of incident solar radiation to explain the variation in the properties evaluated suggested that this and other environmental factors may play a particularly relevant role in determining soil and plant litter distribution in tropical areas with heterogeneous topography. Furthermore, this study corroborates that the spatial structure of the area also plays an important role in the distribution of soil and litter within this type of landscape, which appears to be consistent with the action of water movement mechanisms in such areas.

Adaptive diversity in heterogeneous environments for populations regulated by a mixture of soft and hard selection

The stable co-existence of two haploid genotypes or two species is studied in a spatially heterogeneous environment submitted to a mixture of soft selection (within-patch regulation) and hard selection (outside-patch regulation) and where two kinds of resource are available. This is analysed both at an ecological time-scale (short term) and at an evolutionary time-scale (long term). At an ecological scale, we show that co-existence is very unlikely if the two competitors are symmetrical specialists exploiting different resources. In this case, the most favourable conditions are met when the two resources are equally available, a situation that should favour generalists at an evolutionary scale. Alternatively, low within-patch density dependence (soft selection) enhances the co-existence between two slightly different specialists of the most available resource. This results from the opposing forces that are acting in hard and soft regulation modes. In the case of unbalanced accessibility to the two resources, hard selection favours the most specialized genotype, whereas soft selection strongly favours the less specialized one. Our results suggest that competition for different resources may be difficult to demonstrate in the wild even when it is a key factor in the maintenance of adaptive diversity. At an evolutionary scale, a monomorphic invasive evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) always exists. When a linear trade-off exists between survival in one habitat versus that in another, this ESS lies between an absolute adjustment of survival to niche size (for mainly soft-regulated populations) and absolute survival (specialization) in a single niche (for mainly hard-regulated populations). This suggests that environments in agreement with the assumptions of such models should lead to an absence of adaptive variation in the long term.

Adaptive colour polymorphism of Acrida ungarica H. (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in a spatially heterogeneous environment

Intra-specific colour polymorphism provides a cryptic camouflage from predators in heterogeneous habitats. The orthoptera species, Acrida ungarica (Herbst, 1786) possess two well-distinguished colour morphs: brown and green and displays several disruptive colouration patterns within each morph to improve the crypsis. This study focused on how the features of the background environment relate to the proportion of the two morphs and to the intensity of disruptive colouration patterns in A. ungarica. As the two sexes are very distinct with respect to mass and length, we also distinctively tested the relationship for each sex. In accordance with the background matching hypothesis, we found that, for both sexes, the brown morph was in higher proportion at sites with a brown-dominant environment, and green morphs were in higher proportion in green-dominant environments. Globally, individuals in drier sites and in the drier year also had more intense disruptive colouration patterns, and brown morphs and females were also more striped. Colour patterns differed largely between populations and were significantly correlated with relevant environmental features. Even if A. ungarica is a polymorphic specialist, disruptive colouration still appears to provide strong benefits, particularly in some habitats. Moreover, because females are larger, they are less able to flee, which might explain the difference between sexes

Heterogeneous discounting in consumption-investment problems. Time consistent solutions

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza un model estocàstic en temps continu en el que l'agent decisor descompta les utilitats instantànies i la funció final amb taxes de preferència temporal constants però diferents. En aquest context es poden modelitzar problemes en els quals, quan el temps s'acosta al moment final, la valoració de la funció final incrementa en comparació amb les utilitats instantànies. Aquest tipus d'asimetria no es pot descriure ni amb un descompte estàndard ni amb un variable. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es deriva l'equació de programació dinàmica estocàstica, les solucions de la qual són equilibris Markovians. Per a aquest tipus de preferències temporals, s'estudia el model clàssic de consum i inversió (Merton, 1971) per a les funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA, comparant els equilibris Markovians amb les solucions inconsistents temporalment. Finalment es discuteix la introducció del temps final aleatori.

Characterization of surface functional groups present on laboratory-generated and ambient aerosol particles by means of heterogeneous titration reactions

A Knudsen flow reactor has been used to quantify surface functional groups on aerosols collected in the field. This technique is based on a heterogeneous titration reaction between a probe gas and a specific functional group on the particle surface. In the first part of this work, the reactivity of different probe gases on laboratory-generated aerosols (limonene SOA, Pb(NO3)2, Cd(NO3)2) and diesel reference soot (SRM 2975) has been studied. Five probe gases have been selected for the quantitative determination of important functional groups: N(CH3)3 (for the titration of acidic sites), NH2OH (for carbonyl functions), CF3COOH and HCl (for basic sites of different strength), and O3 (for oxidizable groups). The second part describes a field campaign that has been undertaken in several bus depots in Switzerland, where ambient fine and ultrafine particles were collected on suitable filters and quantitatively investigated using the Knudsen flow reactor. Results point to important differences in the surface reactivity of ambient particles, depending on the sampling site and season. The particle surface appears to be multi-functional, with the simultaneous presence of antagonistic functional groups which do not undergo internal chemical reactions, such as acid-base neutralization. Results also indicate that the surface of ambient particles was characterized by a high density of carbonyl functions (reactivity towards NH2OH probe in the range 0.26-6 formal molecular monolayers) and a low density of acidic sites (reactivity towards N(CH3)3 probe in the range 0.01-0.20 formal molecular monolayer). Kinetic parameters point to fast redox reactions (uptake coefficient ?0>10-3 for O3 probe) and slow acid-base reactions (?0<10-4 for N(CH3)3 probe) on the particle surface. [Authors]

The use of heterogeneous chemistry for the characterization of functional groups at the gas/particle interface of soot and TiO(2) nanoparticles

Six gases (N((CH3)3), NH2OH, CF3COOH, HCl, NO2, O3) were selected to probe the surface of seven combustion aerosol (amorphous carbon, flame soot) and three types of TiO2 nanoparticles using heterogeneous, that is gas-surface reactions. The gas uptake to saturation of the probes was measured under molecular flow conditions in a Knudsen flow reactor and expressed as a density of surface functional groups on a particular aerosol, namely acidic (carboxylic) and basic (conjugated oxides such as pyrones, N-heterocycles) sites, carbonyl (R1-C(O)-R2) and oxidizable (olefinic, -OH) groups. The limit of detection was generally well below 1% of a formal monolayer of adsorbed probe gas. With few exceptions most investigated aerosol samples interacted with all probe gases which points to the coexistence of different functional groups on the same aerosol surface such as acidic and basic groups. Generally, the carbonaceous particles displayed significant differences in surface group density: Printex 60 amorphous carbon had the lowest density of surface functional groups throughout, whereas Diesel soot recovered from a Diesel particulate filter had the largest. The presence of basic oxides on carbonaceous aerosol particles was inferred from the ratio of uptakes of CF3COOH and HCl owing to the larger stability of the acetate compared to the chloride counterion in the resulting pyrylium salt. Both soots generated from a rich and a lean hexane diffusion flame had a large density of oxidizable groups similar to amorphous carbon FS 101. TiO2 15 had the lowest density of functional groups among the three studied TiO2 nanoparticles for all probe gases despite the smallest size of its primary particles. The used technique enabled the measurement of the uptake probability of the probe gases on the various supported aerosol samples. The initial uptake probability, g0, of the probe gas onto the supported nanoparticles differed significantly among the various investigated aerosol samples but was roughly correlated with the density of surface groups, as expected. [Authors]

Examination of Heterogeneous Crossing Sequences Between Toner and Rollerball Pen Strokes by Digital Microscopy and 3-D Laser Profilometry

The determination of line crossing sequences between rollerball pens and laser printers presents difficulties that may not be overcome using traditional techniques. This research aimed to study the potential of digital microscopy and 3-D laser profilometry to determine line crossing sequences between a toner and an aqueous ink line. Different paper types, rollerball pens, and writing pressure were tested. Correct opinions of the sequence were given for all case scenarios, using both techniques. When the toner was printed before the ink, a light reflection was observed in all crossing specimens, while this was never observed in the other sequence types. The 3-D laser profilometry, more time-consuming, presented the main advantage of providing quantitative results. The findings confirm the potential of the 3-D laser profilometry and demonstrate the efficiency of digital microscopy as a new technique for determining the sequence of line crossings involving rollerball pen ink and toner. With the mass marketing of laser printers and the popularity of rollerball pens, the determination of line crossing sequences between such instruments is encountered by forensic document examiners. This type of crossing presents difficulties with optical microscopic line crossing techniques involving ballpoint pens or gel pens and toner (1-4). Indeed, the rollerball's aqueous ink penetrates through the toner and is absorbed by the fibers of the paper, leaving the examiner with the impression that the toner is above the ink even when it is not (5). Novotny and Westwood (3) investigated the possibility of determining aqueous ink and toner crossing sequences by microscopic observation of the intersection before and after toner removal. A major disadvantage of their study resides in destruction of the sample by scraping off the toner line to see what was underneath. The aim of this research was to investigate the ways to overcome these difficulties through digital microscopy and three-dimensional (3-D) laser profilometry. The former was used as a technique for the determination of sequences between gel pen and toner printing strokes, but provided less conclusive results than that of an optical stereomicroscope (4). 3-D laser profilometry, which allows one to observe and measure the topography of a surface, has been the subject of a number of recent studies in this area. Berx and De Kinder (6) and Schirripa Spagnolo (7,8) have tested the application of laser profilometry to determine the sequence of intersections of several lines. The results obtained in these studies overcome disadvantages of other methods applied in this area, such as scanning electron microscope or the atomic force microscope. The main advantages of 3-D laser profilometry include the ease of implementation of the technique and its nondestructive nature, which does not require sample preparation (8-10). Moreover, the technique is reproducible and presents a high degree of freedom in the vertical axes (up to 1000 μm). However, when the paper surface presents a given roughness, if the pen impressions alter the paper with a depth similar to the roughness of medium, the results are not always conclusive (8). It becomes difficult in this case to distinguish which characteristics can be imputed to the pen impressions or the quality of the paper surface. This important limitation is assessed by testing different types of paper of variable quality (of different grammage and finishing) and the writing pressure. The authors will therefore assess the limits of 3-D laser profilometry technique and determine whether the method can overcome such constraints. Second, the authors will investigate the use of digital microscopy because it presents a number of advantages: it is efficient, user-friendly, and provides an objective evaluation and interpretation.