Core design options for high conversion BWRs operating in Th- 233U fuel cycle

Several options of fuel assembly design are investigated for a BWR core operating in a closed self-sustainable Th-233U fuel cycle. The designs rely on an axially heterogeneous fuel assembly structure consisting of a single axial fissile zone "sandwiched" between two fertile blanket zones, in order to improve fertile to fissile conversion ratio. The main objective of the study was to identify the most promising assembly design parameters, dimensions of fissile and fertile zones, for achieving net breeding of 233U. The design challenge, in this respect, is that the fuel breeding potential is at odds with axial power peaking and the core minimum critical power ratio (CPR), hence limiting the maximum achievable core power rating. Calculations were performed with the BGCore system, which consists of the MCNP code coupled with fuel depletion and thermo-hydraulic feedback modules. A single 3-dimensional fuel assembly having reflective radial boundaries was modeled applying simplified restrictions on the maximum centerline fuel temperature and the CPR. It was found that axially heterogeneous fuel assembly design with a single fissile zone can potentially achieve net breeding, while matching conventional BWR core power rating under certain restrictions to the core loading pattern design. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Performance Cosmology (Testimony from the Future, Evidence of the Past)

Gough, Richard, et al., A Performance Cosmology (Testimony from the Future, Evidence of the Past) (New York: Routledge, 2006), pp.xi+324 RAE2008

Analysis of institutional arrangements and common pool resources governance: the case of Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia

Although Common Pool Resources (CPRs) make up a significant share of total income for rural households in Ethiopia and elsewhere in developing world, limited access to these resources and environmental degradation threaten local livelihoods. As a result, the issues of management, governance of CPRs and how to prevent their over-exploitation are of great importance for development policy. This study examines the current state and dynamics of CPRs and overall resource governance system of the Lake Tana sub-basin. This research employed the modified form of Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The framework integrates the concept of Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) and Interactive Governance (IG) perspectives where social actors, institutions, the politico-economic context, discourses and ecological features across governance and government levels were considered. It has been observed that overexploitation, degradation and encroachment of CPRs have increased dramatically and this threatens the sustainability of Lake Tana ecosystem. The stakeholder analysis result reveals that there are multiple stakeholders with diverse interest in and power over CPRs. The analysis of institutional arrangements reveals that the existing formal rules and regulations governing access to and control over CPRs could not be implemented and were not effective to legally bind and govern CPR user’s behavior at the operational level. The study also shows that a top-down and non-participatory policy formulation, law and decision making process overlooks the local contexts (local knowledge and informal institutions). The outcomes of examining the participation of local resource users, as an alternative to a centralized, command-and-control, and hierarchical approach to resource management and governance, have called for a fundamental shift in CPR use, management and governance to facilitate the participation of stakeholders in decision making. Therefore, establishing a multi-level stakeholder governance system as an institutional structure and process is necessary to sustain stakeholder participation in decision-making regarding CPR use, management and governance.

Institutional designs of customary fisheries management arrangements in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Mexico

There are considerable efforts by governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and academia to integrate marine conservation initiatives and customary practices, such as taboos that limit resource use. However, these efforts are often pursued without a fundamental understanding of customary institutions. This paper examines the operational rules in use and the presence of institutional design principles in long-enduring and dynamic customary fisheries management institutions in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and Mexico. Rather than a "blue print" for devising long-enduring institutions, this study relies on the design principles as a starting point to organize an inquiry into the institutional diversity found in customary governance regimes. Three important trends emerged from this comparative analysis: (1) despite it being notoriously difficult to define boundaries around marine resources, almost 3/4 of the cases in this study had clearly defined boundaries and membership; (2) all of the customary institutions were able to make and change rules, indicating a critical degree of flexibility and autonomy that may be necessary for adaptive management; (3) the customary institutions examined generally lacked key interactions with organizations operating at larger scales, suggesting that they may lack the institutional embeddedness required to confront some common pool resources (CPR) challenges from the broader socioeconomic, institutional and political settings in which they are embedded. Future research will be necessary to better understand how specific institutional designs are related to social and ecological outcomes in commons property institutions. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Molecular analysis of Continuous Plankton Recorder samples, an examination of echinoderm larvae in the North Sea

Analysis of the biological time series of plankton samples collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in the North Atlantic and North Sea has shown a regime shift in the plankton in this region. Both the distributions of planktonic organisms and their timing of occurrence in the seasonal cycle have changed and these changes appear to ref lect global warming. In the North Sea the planktonic larvae of echinoderms have shown a recent dramatic increase in both relative and absolute abundance and their seasonal peak of occurrence has advanced by 47 days. The identity of the echinoderm larvae involved in this change has, however, remained equivocal. The small size of many organisms like echinoderm larvae combined with incomplete taxonomic keys hinders their visual identification and their fragility often means that useful morphological features are damaged during sampling by the CPR. Here, using new molecular methods applied to CPR samples, we show that planktonic larvae of the benthic Echinocardium cordatum dominate the North Sea plankton. We argue that since this species benefits from mild winters and warmer waters their numerical increase in the plankton is consistent with recent climatic changes that appear to be affecting the wider ecology of this region.

Ocean climate anomalies and the ecology of the North Sea

Long-term changes in the plankton of the North Sea are investigated using data from the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey. During the last 4 decades, there appears to have been 2 large anomalous periods within the plankton data set, one that occurred in the late 1970s and the other in the late 1980s. These anomalous periods seem to be largely synchronous with unusual ocean climate conditions that have occurred episodically over a timescale of decades. The unusual ocean climate conditions prevailing at these 2 time periods appear to contain important hydrographical elements that involve oceanic incursions into the North Sea. This paper, using data from the CPR survey and providing evidence from other studies, focuses on the relationship between the long-term changes in the biology of the North Sea and these 2 exceptional hydro-climatic events. Here, we suggest that while atmospheric variability and associated changes in regional temperatures have a dominant effect on the marine environment, oceanic influences on the ecology of a semi-closed environment such as the North Sea may have been underestimated in the past.

Decadal basin-scale changes in diatoms, dinoflagellates, and phytoplankton color across the North Atlantic

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has been used to characterize phytoplankton and zooplankton space-time dynamics in the North Sea since 1931 and in the North Atlantic since 1939. Phytoplankton biomass is assessed from these samples by visual assessment of the green color of the silk mesh, the Phytoplankton Color Index (PCI), and the total count of diatoms and dinoflagellates. Species with a frequency of occurrence greater than 1% in the samples are used as indicator species of the community. We investigated (1) long-term fluctuations of phytoplankton biomass, total diatoms, and total dinoflagellates; (2) geographical variation of patterns; (3) the relationship between phytoplankton and climate forcing in the North Atlantic CPR samples; (4) the relative contribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates to the PCI; and (5) the fluctuations of the dominant species over the period of survey to provide more information on the processes linking climate to changes in the phytoplankton community. As a result of the differences in microscopic analysis methods prior to 1958, our analyses were conducted for the period ranging from 1958 to 2002. The North Atlantic was divided into six regions identified through bathymetric criteria and separated along a North-South axis. Based on 12 monthly time series, we demonstrate increasing trends in PCI and total dinoflagellates and a decrease in total diatoms.

Differences in performance among four indices used to evaluate diversity in planktonic ecosystems

The performance of four common estimators of diversity are investigated using calanoid copepod data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey. The region of the North Atlantic and the North Sea was divided into squares of 400 nautical miles for each 2-month period. For each 144 possible cases, Pielou's pooled quadrat method was performed with the aims of determining asymptotic diversity and investigating the CPR sample-size dependence of diversity estimators. It is shown that the performance of diversity indices may greatly vary in space and time (at a seasonal scale). This dependence is more pronounced in higher diverse environments and when the sample size is small. Despite results showing that all estimators underestimate the `actual' diversity, comparison of sites remained reliable from a few pooled CPR samples. Using more than one CPR sample, the Gini coefficient appears to be a better diversity estimator than any other indices and spatial or temporal comparisons are highly satisfactory. In situations where comparative studies are needed but only one CPR sample is available, taxonomic richness was the preferred method of estimating diversity. Recommendations are proposed to maximise the efficiency of diversity estimations with the CPR data.

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton. The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.

Increased blooms of a dinoflagellate in the NW Atlantic

Sampling by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) over the NW Atlantic from 1960 to 2000 has enabled long-term studies of the larger components of the phytoplankton community, highlighting various changes, particularly during the 1990s. Analysis of an index of phytoplankton biomass, the Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI) has revealed an increase over the past decade, most marked during the winter (December to February) months. Examination of the structure of the community using multiple linear-regression models indicates that the winter phytoplankton community composition has changed markedly in the 1990s compared to the 1960s. One phytoplankter, the dinoflagellate Ceratium arcticum (Cleve), has undergone dramatic changes in abundance during this period, with pronounced large winter blooms and decreased autumnal levels, and its contribution to the Phytoplankton Colour index values has increased significantly. Other dominant species in the phytoplankton community, both diatoms and dinoflagellates, did not show the same variations over the examined time period. It is suggested that the response of C. arcticum is probably a result of previously reported changes in stratification in the NW Atlantic, due to dynamic hydro-climatic (freshening and cooling) events.

Using continuous plankton recorder data

The continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey is the largest multi-decadal plankton monitoring programme in the world. It was initiated in 1931 and by the end of 2004 had counted 207,619 samples and identified 437 phyto- and zooplankton taxa throughout the North Atlantic. CPR data are used extensively by the research community and in recent years have been used increasingly to underpin marine management. Here, we take a critical look at how best to use CPR data. We first describe the CPR itself, CPR sampling, and plankton counting procedures. We discuss the spatial and temporal biases in the Survey, summarise environmental data that have not previously been available, and describe the new data access policy. We supply information essential to using CPR data, including descriptions of each CPR taxonomic entity, the idiosyncrasies associated with counting many of the taxa, the logic behind taxonomic changes in the Survey, the semi-quantitative nature of CPR sampling, and recommendations on choosing the spatial and temporal scale of study. This forms the basis for a broader discussion on how to use CPR data for deriving ecologically meaningful indices based on size, functional groups and biomass that can be used to support research and management. This contribution should be useful for plankton ecologists, modellers and policy makers that actively use CPR data.

Differential contribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates to phytoplankton biomass in the NE Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea

Sampling by the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey over the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea has enabled long-term studies of phytoplankton biomass. Analysis of an index of phytoplankton biomass, the phytoplankton colour index (PCI), has previously shown an increase in phytoplankton biomass in the NE Atlantic. In the current study, further investigations were conducted to determine the contribution of diatom and dinoflagellate cell counts to the PCI, their fluctuations over the last 45 yr and their geographical variations in the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. An increased contribution of dinoflagellates to the PCI was revealed over the south NE Atlantic and the northern North Sea. In contrast, the contribution of diatoms decreased in the north NE Atlantic and the northern North Sea. No discernible trends were found in the other regions of the North Sea. The relative contributions of diatoms and dinoflagellates to the PCI led to the identification of 3 geographically distinct dynamic regimes in the diatom/dinoflagellate dynamics in the NE Atlantic and the North Sea. Finally, it is stressed that the discrepancy observed in the patterns of PCI and diatom and dinoflagellate cell counts suggests that changes in PCI do not reflect changes in the community structure and that the exclusive use of PCI is not adequate to investigate the long-term trends in the trophic link between phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton.

Use of satellite data for modelling food availability and survival of marine fish larvae

A modelling scheme is described which uses satellite retrieved sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll-a to derive monthly zooplankton biomass estimates in the eastern North Atlantic; this forms part of a bio-physical model of inter-annual variations in the growth and survival of larvae and post-larvae of mackerel (Scomber scombrus). The temperature and chlorophyll data are incorporated first to model copepod (Calanus) egg production rates. Egg production is then converted to available food using distribution data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, observed population biomass per unit daily egg production and the proportion of the larval mackerel diet comprising Calanus. Results are validated in comparison with field observations of zooplankton biomass. The principal benefit of the modelling scheme is the ability to use the combination of broad scale coverage and fine scale temporal and spatial variability of satellite data as driving forces in the model; weaknesses are the simplicity of the egg production model and the broad-scale generalizations assumed in the raising factors to convert egg production to biomass.

Distribution and abundance of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) eggs in the English Channel from Continuous Plankton Recorder sampling

Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples from the English Channel and adjacent Celtic shelf, taken over the period 1958-1980, were analysed for sardine (Sardina pilchardus) eggs. Results showed the progression of sardine spawning along the English Channel from west to east from March to August and a return from east to west from September to November. This corresponds with the two seasonal peaks of sardine egg abundance in the western Channel: the main summer peak being in May/June, with a smaller autumn peak in October/November. Long-term changes in sardine egg abundance in CPR samples showed a decline in summer spawning from the late 1960s, but no clear trend in autumn-spawned egg abundance. Similar patterns were observed in the numbers of sardine eggs sampled by conventional plankton net tows at the time-series Station L5 off Plymouth. This supports the use of the longer time-series of sardine egg data at L5 as being representative of a wider area and emphasizes the importance in continuation of the L5 time-series.