"Information effect" of economic news: SPI futures

The present study investigates the behaviour of Share Price Index (SPI) futures returns, volatility, and trading volume behaviour around the announcement of Current Account Deficit (CAD), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation (CPI). The futures market data are sampled at 1-, 5-, and 10-min intervals at the announcement time. After controlling for risk, a significant positive abnormal return can be earned based on the good news release. However, it is unlikely that traders could make an economic profit by exploiting this effect. In this sense, this futures market returns are found to react efficiently to good news. Volatility behaviour around announcements provides the same conclusion. As for the relationship between returns, volatility, and volume upon information arrival, returns are positively related to trading volume, which is inconsistent with the ‘short sales constraint’ theory. Trading volume is found to increase as the level of volatility rises. The redenomination of the SPI futures and options contract from A$100 to A$25 per basis point is found to increase trading volume in excess of that expected due to the redenomination. However, market return and volatility are unaffected by the redenomination.

The welfare economics of measuring sustainability: a new approach based on social choice theory and systems analysis

This paper presents a new measure of sustainability within a welfare economics framework. Gross domestic product (GDP) can be used as an indicator of sustainability if the GDP estimates are undertaken within a cost-benefit analysis framework based on social choice perspectives. Sustainability is dependent on a healthy and functioning socio-economic and environmental (SEE) system. Economic development can damage the SEE system through resource degradation, over-harvesting and pollution. This paper addresses the tensions between economic development and sustainability by undertaking a number of SEE-based adjustments to GDP based on social choice perspectives in order to measure sustainability. These adjustments include the environmental and social costs caused by economic development such as water pollution, the depletion of non-renewable resources, and deforestation. Thailand is used as a case study for a 25 year period (1975-1999). The results show a divergence in terms of GDP per capita and the SEE-adjusted GDP per capita figure. The paper concludes that, with increasing environmental and social costs of economic development, pursuing such extreme high growth objectives without due environmental and social considerations can threaten present social welfare and future sustainability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

The relationship between economic development and social welfare: A new adjusted GDP measure of welfare

Existing literature focuses on the issue of preparation of social welfare measurements on the basis of an unadjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper extends this method to incorporate cost-benefit analysis of economic growth in a growing economy in calculating the adjusted GDP, termed as the cost-benefit (CB)-adjusted GDP. This approach is empirically applied to Thailand. There are stark differences between GDP per capita and CB adjusted GDP per capita rates for this period.This paper concludes that GDP can be used as an indicator of social welfare if the GDP estimates are undertaken within a cost-benefit analysis framework.

Challenges facing housing affordability in Beijing in the Twenty-first century

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is analyse to what extent the high price had led to low levels of housing affordability in the period 2002-2006 in Beijing. Due to the importance of housing for local residents and the crucial position that real estate market in the Chinese economy is currently in, research into the housing affordability issues is now essential. It is important to consider the social circumstances that are predominantly related to both the standard of living and the national economy in Beijing.

Design/methodology/approach – The housing price to income ratio (PIR) method and Housing Affordability Index (HAI) model are used to measure housing affordability in Beijing. Then, the reasons for the high housing prices in Beijing are discussed and government homeownership-oriented policies to help citizen on housing issues are examined. Finally, future proposals which can contribute to ease the housing affordability problem are recommended.

Findings – The main findings in this research are that the PIR in the Beijing housing market (based on an average gross floor area of 60?m2) fluctuated between 6.69 and 9.12, respectively, between 2002 and 2006. Over the same period, the HAI was approximately 75 between 2002 and 2004, although decreasing sharply in 2005 (65.78) and 2006 (51.33). It appears that the Chinese government's new housing provision policies may be able to ease this affordability problem, especially with regards to the economic housing scheme.

Originality/value – China has experienced rapid growth in gross domestic product (GDP) with a substantial increase in house prices which have affected housing affordability for typical Beijing households. Since the housing reform in China commenced in 1998, Beijing residents, government officers and academics have been concerned about high housing prices in the city, which is considered beyond the buying capability of the ordinary residents. The results are designed to provide an insight into the level of housing affordability in Beijing and whether a trend exists.

An econometric model of the determinants of private investment and a CGE model of the impact of democracy on investment and economic growth in Fiji

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to construct an econometric model of the determinants of private investment with a particular focus on the impact of democracy on investment.

Design/methodology/approach – The first step was to econometrically derive the long-run elasticities; then to modify the Fiji computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate the investment function. Also the econometrically derived long run elasticities in the CGE model were used.

Findings – It was found that democracy has a positive and statistically significant impact on private investment in Fiji. The paper's simulation of Fiji becoming a fully democratic country on investment and other macroeconomic fundamentals, based on a CGE model, reveals that real gross domestic product and real national welfare increase by around 0.01 and 0.05 per cent, respectively; government savings and revenue performance improves; there is a trade balance surplus; and both private consumption and disposable income increase by around 0.05 and 0.12 per cent, respectively.

Originality/value – This is the first study that uses a CGE model to examine the impact of democracy, via investment, on other macroeconomic fundaments. No other study is known to have modelled democracy in a CGE framework.

Government revenue and government expenditure nexus : evidence from developing countries

The relationship between government revenue and government expenditure has attracted a lot of interest given its policy relevance, particularly with respect to budget deficits. The goal of this paper is to investigate evidence for causality between government revenue and government expenditure within a multivariate framework by modelling them together with gross domestic product for 12 developing countries. Our application of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test for Granger causality reveals support for the tax-and-spend hypothesis for Mauritius, El Salvador, Haiti, Chile and Venezuela. For Haiti, there is evidence for the spend-and-tax hypothesis, while for Peru, South Africa, Guatemala, Uruguay and Ecuador there is evidence of neutrality.

Productivity differential and the relationship between exports and GDP in Fiji : an empirical assessment using the two sector model

This study uses a two-sector model to determine the productivity differential between the export and non-export sectors of Fiji, and the contribution of exports and investment to gross domestic product over the period 1962-2000. Amongst our key results, we find that the productivity differential between the export and non-export sectors is small and statistically insignificant; investment to GDP ratio and weighted exports positively contribute to economic growth in Fiji; and in the abnormal years (years of coups in Fiji) marginal productivity in capital in the non-export sector is lower than in normal years.

Biopharmaceutical innovation and industrial developments in South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan

South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan are well known as export-oriented developmental states which for decades employed industrial policy to target particular industries for government support. In the past fifteen years, these three countries all identified the biopharmaceutical industry as a strategic sector. This article explores, through economic analysis, the rationale for this decision and the strategies chosen for linking into the global bio-economy with the objective of catching up in biopharmaceuticals. The paper identifies three comparative advantages enjoyed by these countries in the biopharma sector: (1) public investments in basic research; (2) private investments in phase 1 clinical trials; and (3) a potentially significant contract research industry managing latter-stage clinical trials. Governments employ a range of industrial policies, consistent with these comparative advantages, to promote the biopharmaceutical industry, including public investment in biomedical hubs, research funding and research and development (R&D) tax credits. We argue that the most important feature of the biopharmaceutical industry in these countries is the dominant role of the public sector. That these countries have made progress in innovative capabilities is illustrated by input measures such as R&D expenditure as share of gross domestic product, number of patents granted and clinical trials, and volume of foreign direct investment. In contrast, output indicators such as approval of new chemical entities suggest that the process of catching up has only just commenced. Pharmaceutical innovation is at the stage of mainly generating inputs to integrated processes controlled by the globally incumbent firms.

Has international trade in saving improved US economic welfare?

Over the past decade international policy-makers have perceived the current account deficit of the world's largest foreign borrower economy, the United States, as a threat to global economic and financial stability. Yet, by bridging the US domestic saving-investment gap, capital inflow that matched the huge US current account deficit also enabled a faster rate of domestic capital accumulation than home saving alone would have permitted. Consistent with the theory of international capital movements, this study identifies and compares the respective contributions of domestic and foreign saving to US gross domestic product per worker over the two decades prior to the onset of the US banking crisis. By revealing that foreign borrowing contributed significantly to raising US output and hence living standards over this period, it adds a new dimension to the debate about global imbalances.

Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP : Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption, exports and gross domestic product (GDP) for a panel of Middle Eastern countries. We find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables. A 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases GDP by 0.04 per cent, a 1 per cent increase in exports increases GDP by 0.17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in GDP generates a 0.95 per cent increase in electricity consumption. The policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth. Further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports, particularly non-oil exports, is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies.

Are output fluctuations transitory? New evidence from twenty four Chinese provinces

The fact that an occurrence of a unit root in real output is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend makes this an important topic for empirical investigation. We examine this issue for 24 Chinese provinces using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier panel unit root test which allows for a structural break. Our main finding is that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita for Chinese provinces are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend.

Does tourism Granger causes economic growth in Fiji?

Tourism is Fiji's largest industry in terms of export earnings and employment. In this paper we investigate the nexus between tourism receipts and real gross domestic product (GDP) in Fiji. Specifically, we test whether the two variables are cointegrated and using Granger causality tests we establish the direction of causation between the two. We find that there is a cointegration relationship when real GDP is the dependent variable. On the direction of causation we find that in the short-run real GDP Granger causes tourism receipts while in the long-run tourism receipts Granger cause real GDP.

Trade liberalisation and economic growth in Fiji : an empirical assessment using the ARDL approach

This study investigates the effect of trade liberalization on economic performance in Fiji using a Cobb-Douglas production function, which is expanded to take into account political instability and trade liberalization. The long run results conform to theoretical expectations, except for the contribution of labour force, which is negatively related to real Gross Domestic Product. We attribute this to the rapid and consistent emigration of skilled labour following the 1987 coups. While human capital was found to be the most influential variable, exports and investment were found to be weakly related to Gross Domestic Product. The key finding is that the dummy variable for signing the IMF agreement in 1984 had a statistically significant positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product in the long run, but the short run effects of signing the agreement as well as the short run and long run effects of implementing the agreement in 1986 were statistically insignificant.

Use of wild fish and other aquatic organisms as feed in aquaculture; a review of practices and implications in the Asia Pacific

Global and Asian aquaculture have witnessed a ten-fold increase in production from 1980 to 2004. However, the relative percent contribution to production of each of the major commodities has remained almost unchanged. For example, the contribution of freshwater finfish has declined from 71 to 66 percent in Asia but has remained unchanged globally over the last 20 to 30 years. This fact has dictated trends in the use of fish as a feed for cultured stocks. The growth in the sector has gone hand in hand with an increasing dependence on fish as feed, either directly or indirectly. In a number of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the aquaculture sector has surpassed the capture fisheries sector in its respective contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP). Aquaculture’s increased contribution to national GDPs can be taken as a clear indication of the contribution of the sector to food security and poverty alleviation. The use of finfish and other aquatic organisms as a feed source can be through direct utilization of whole or chopped raw fish in wet form, through fishmeal and fish oil in formulated feeds, and/or as live fish, although the latter is uncommon and the overall amounts used are relatively small. In the first two categories, the fish used are often termed “trash fish/low-value fish”. Although attempts have been made to define this term, all definitions have a certain degree of ambiguity and/or subjectivity. In this regional review, the amount of fish used as feed sources based on the above categories was estimated primarily from the production data, supported by assumptions on the inclusion levels of fishmeal in formulated feeds and observed feed conversion efficiencies for both formulated feeds and for stock fed trash fish/low-value fish directly. A scenario for the use of fish as feed was developed by starting from the levels of aquaculture production recorded in 2004 and assuming increases in production volumes of 10, 15 and 20 percent by 2010, respectively, for the three trajectories. In parallel, the pattern of wild fish use as feed was projected to change as fish and shrimp farmers increasingly replace farmmade feeds by incorporating trash fish/low-value fish with manufactured feeds that include fishmeal. Also, the fishmeal inclusion rates in manufactured feeds are falling slowly, and this has been incorporated into the projections. The regional review also deals with the production of fishmeal using trash fish/low-value fish in the Asia-Pacific region. Regional fishmeal production as a whole is relatively low when compared with that of major fishmeal-producing countries such as Chile, Iceland and Norway, amounting to approximately 1 million tonnes per year. However, there is a trend towards increasing the use of fish industry waste, such as from the tuna canning industry in Thailand. The fishmeal produced in the region is priced considerably lower than globally traded fishmeal, but its quality is poorer. Total fishmeal use in Asian aquaculture in 2004 was estimated as 2 388 million tonnes, the highest proportion of this being used for crustacean aquaculture (1 418 million tonnes). Based on growth predictions (to year 2010) in the sector and improvements to feed quality and management, it is expected that the quantity of fishmeal used in Asian aquaculture will be slightly less than at present. An estimated 240 000 tonnes of fish oil is used in Asian aquaculture, principally in shrimp feeds. Based on production estimates of commodities in 2004 that rely on trash fish/low-value fish as the main feed source, this regional review suggests that Asian aquaculture currently uses between 2 465 and 3 882 million tonnes, an amount that is predicted to decrease to between 1.890 and 2 795 million tonnes by 2010. The use of trash fish/low-value fish and fishmeal by the aquaculture sector has been repeatedly adjudicated as a non-sustainable practice, and globally the sector is seeking to reduce its dependence on fish as feed through improved feed management practices and development of better quality feeds and feed formulations using alternative ingredients. Over the next few years, decreases in the use of trash fish/low-value fish are also expected to be achieved through better conversion of raw materials into fishmeal and fish oil during the reduction processes. The “way forward” in addressing the issue of the use of fish as feed in aquaculture in the Asia-Pacific region includes the need for a concerted regional research thrust to reduce the use of fish as feed sources in aquaculture, as has been achieved in the animal husbandry sector. Secondly, there is a need to increase farmer awareness on the use of trash fish as feed. This is achievable, considering the similar progress that has been made by the region’s shrimp farming sector, which almost exclusively involves small-scale practitioners who are often clustered in a given locality. The analysis also suggests that the use of trash fish/low-value fish in aquaculture may be compatible with improving food security and alleviating poverty. In Asia, trash fish/low-value fish is mostly landed in areas where there are other suitable fish commodities for human consumption. To make the trash fish/low-value fish suitable and available for human consumption would involve some degree of value-adding and transportation costs, which are likely to increase the price to beyond the means of the consumer, particularly in remote rural areas. Under such a scenario, the direct or indirect use of this perishable resource as a feed source to produce a consumable commodity appears to make economic sense and appears to be the most logical use for overall human benefit. In this manner, trash fish/low-value fish contributes to food security by increasing income generation opportunities and hence contributes to poverty alleviation. Another factor that needs to be taken into account is the large numbers of artisanal fishers who harvest this raw material. The continued use of trash fish/low-value fish, therefore, allows these fishers to maintain their livelihoods¹. Admittedly, this is an area that warrants more detailed investigation, from resource use, livelihoods and economic viewpoints.

Demystifying the supply of capital and labour in a nation’s economic chain

Public capital has been considered to be the wheels of economic activity in a nation or region. The reverse effect, the contribution of economic growth to public capital, is also worth analysis. The non-structural vector auto-regression (VAR) approach is performed for the Australian economy using yearly data for the 1960-2008 period. The optimal lag is investigated to build the VAR model that is then tested for stability. The impulse response function is further employed to examine the response of one economic variable to the innovation of others and to determine the lagged terms for the maximum absolute value of the other variables’ responses. The results will provide historical evidence for the federal and regional governments of Australia to estimate the effects of these production variables, in particular, the effect of infrastructure spending on the gross domestic product.