ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

Magma Extraction from the Mantle Wedge at Convergent Margins Through Dikes: A Parametric Sensitivity Analysis

We address under what conditions a magma generated by partial melting at 100 km depth in the mantle wedge above a subduction zone can reach the crust in dikes before stalling. We also address under what conditions primitive basaltic magma (Mg # >60) can be delivered from this depth to the crust. We employ linear elastic fracture mechanics with magma solidification theory and perform a parametric sensitivity analysis. All dikes are initiated at a depth of 100 km in the thermal core of the wedge, and the Moho is fixed at 35 km depth. We consider a range of melt solidus temperatures (800-1100 degrees C), viscosities (10-100 Pa s), and densities (2400-2700 kg m(-3)). We also consider a range of host rock fracture toughness values (50-300 MPa m(1/2)) and dike lengths (2-5 km) and two thermal structures for the mantle wedge (1260 and 1400 degrees C at 100 km depth and 760 and 900 degrees C at 35 km depth). For the given parameter space, many dikes can reach the Moho in less than a few hundred hours, well within the time constraints provided by U series isotope disequilibria studies. Increasing the temperature in the mantle wedge, or increasing the dike length, allows additional dikes to propagate to the Moho. We conclude that some dikes with vertical lengths near their critical lengths and relatively high solidus temperatures will stall in the mantle before reaching the Moho, and these may be returned by corner flow to depths where they can melt under hydrous conditions. Thus, a chemical signature in arc lavas suggesting partial melting of slab basalts may be partly influenced by these recycled dikes. Alternatively, dikes with lengths well above their critical lengths can easily deliver primitive magmas to the crust, particularly if the mantle wedge is relatively hot. Dike transport remains a viable primary mechanism of magma ascent in convergent tectonic settings, but the potential for less rapid mechanisms making an important contribution increases as the mantle temperature at the Moho approaches the solidus temperature of the magma.

Global phylogenomic analysis of nonencapsulated Streptococcus pneumoniae reveals a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages.

The surrounding capsule of Streptococcus pneumoniae has been identified as a major virulence factor and is targeted by pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV). However, nonencapsulated Streptococcus pneumoniae (Non-Ec-Sp) have also been isolated globally, mainly in carriage studies. It is unknown if Non-Ec-Sp evolve sporadically, if they have high antibiotic non-susceptiblity rates and a unique, specific gene content. Here, whole genome sequencing of 131 Non-Ec-Sp isolates sourced from 17 different locations around the world was performed. Results revealed a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages. The sporadic lineages clustered with a previously sequenced, global collection of encapsulated S. pneumoniae (Ec-Sp) isolates while the classic lineage is comprised mainly of the frequently identified multi-locus sequences types ST344 (n=39) and ST448 (n=40). All ST344 and nine ST448 isolates had high non-susceptiblity rates to β-lactams and other antimicrobials. Analysis of the accessory genome reveals that the classic Non-Ec-Sp contained an increased number of mobile elements, than Ec-Sp and sporadic Non-Ec-Sp. Performing adherence assays to human epithelial cells for selected classic and sporadic Non-Ec-Sp revealed that the presence of a integrative conjugative element (ICE) results in increased adherence to human epithelial cells (P=0.005). In contrast, sporadic Non-Ec-Sp lacking the ICE had greater growth in vitro possibly resulting in improved fitness. In conclusion, Non-Ec-Sp isolates from the classic lineage have evolved separately. They have spread globally, are well adapted to nasopharyngeal carriage and are able to coexist with Ec-Sp. Due to continued use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, Non-Ec-Sp may become more prevalent.

Defining and measuring urban regions: A sensitivity analysis

This paper evaluates the impact of alternative city boundary definitions on economic performance. First we discuss the theoretical background and motivate the empirical work. Then we present the methodological concept of the sensitivity analysis, which will be applied to a variety of data of Zurich and Bern (the financial and the administrative centres of Switzerland) in order to see how the values of different indicators vary depending on the definition adopted. Finally we will show whether the empirical patterns found are statistically significant. The analysis shows, that the delimitation of a city or city region indeed matters.

The TREAT-NMD DMD Global Database: analysis of more than 7,000 Duchenne muscular dystrophy mutations.

Analyzing the type and frequency of patient-specific mutations that give rise to Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an invaluable tool for diagnostics, basic scientific research, trial planning, and improved clinical care. Locus-specific databases allow for the collection, organization, storage, and analysis of genetic variants of disease. Here, we describe the development and analysis of the TREAT-NMD DMD Global database (http://umd.be/TREAT_DMD/). We analyzed genetic data for 7,149 DMD mutations held within the database. A total of 5,682 large mutations were observed (80% of total mutations), of which 4,894 (86%) were deletions (1 exon or larger) and 784 (14%) were duplications (1 exon or larger). There were 1,445 small mutations (smaller than 1 exon, 20% of all mutations), of which 358 (25%) were small deletions and 132 (9%) small insertions and 199 (14%) affected the splice sites. Point mutations totalled 756 (52% of small mutations) with 726 (50%) nonsense mutations and 30 (2%) missense mutations. Finally, 22 (0.3%) mid-intronic mutations were observed. In addition, mutations were identified within the database that would potentially benefit from novel genetic therapies for DMD including stop codon read-through therapies (10% of total mutations) and exon skipping therapy (80% of deletions and 55% of total mutations).

Effect of Aspect Ratio on the Three-Dimensional Global Instability Analysis of Incompressible Open Cavity Flows

The stability analysis of open cavity flows is a problem of great interest in the aeronautical industry. This type of flow can appear, for example, in landing gears or auxiliary power unit configurations. Open cavity flows is very sensitive to any change in the configuration, either physical (incoming boundary layer, Reynolds or Mach numbers) or geometrical (length to depth and length to width ratio). In this work, we have focused on the effect of geometry and of the Reynolds number on the stability properties of a threedimensional spanwise periodic cavity flow in the incompressible limit. To that end, BiGlobal analysis is used to investigate the instabilities in this configuration. The basic flow is obtained by the numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations with laminar boundary layers imposed upstream. The 3D perturbation, assumed to be periodic in the spanwise direction, is obtained as the solution of the global eigenvalue problem. A parametric study has been performed, analyzing the stability of the flow under variation of the Reynolds number, the L/D ratio of the cavity, and the spanwise wavenumber β. For consistency, multidomain high order numerical schemes have been used in all the computations, either basic flow or eigenvalue problems. The results allow to define the neutral curves in the range of L/D = 1 to L/D = 3. A scaling relating the frequency of the eigenmodes and the length to depth ratio is provided, based on the analysis results.

Global flow analysis as a practical compilation tool

This paper addresses the issue of the practicality of global flow analysis in logic program compilation, in terms of speed of the analysis, precisión, and usefulness of the information obtained. To this end, design and implementation aspects are discussed for two practical abstract interpretation-based flow analysis systems: MA , the MCC And-parallel Analyzer and Annotator; and Ms, an experimental mode inference system developed for SB-Prolog. The paper also provides performance data obtained (rom these implementations and, as an example of an application, a study of the usefulness of the mode information obtained in reducing run-time checks in independent and-parallelism.Based on the results obtained, it is concluded that the overhead of global flow analysis is not prohibitive, while the results of analysis can be quite precise and useful.

On the practicality of global flow analysis of logic programs

This paper addresses the issue of the practicality of global flow analysis in logic program compilation, in terms of both speed and precision of analysis. It discusses design and implementation aspects of two practical abstract interpretation-based flow analysis systems: MA3, the MOO Andparallel Analyzer and Annotator; and Ms, an experimental mode inference system developed for SB-Prolog. The paper also provides performance data obtained from these implementations. Based on these results, it is concluded that the overhead of global flow analysis is not prohibitive, while the results of analysis can be quite precise and useful.

Sensitivity analysis on turbulence models for the ABL in complex terrain

Análisis de sensibilidad de modelos de turbulencia para un modelo CFD de viento aplicados a un emplazamiento en terreno complejo. Validación con datos de viento y turbulencia registrados a 3 alturas en 3 torres de medida.

Spatial linear global instability analysis of the HIFiRE-5 elliptic cone model flow

The linear instability of the three-dimensional boundary-layer over the HIFiRE-5 flight test geometry, i.e. a rounded-tip 2:1 elliptic cone, at Mach 7, has been analyzed through spatial BiGlobal analysis, in a effort to understand transition and accurately predict local heat loads on next-generation ight vehicles. The results at an intermediate axial section of the cone, Re x = 8x10 5, show three different families of spatially amplied linear global modes, the attachment-line and cross- ow modes known from earlier analyses, and a new global mode, peaking in the vicinity of the minor axis of the cone, termed \center-line mode". We discover that a sequence of symmetric and anti-symmetric centerline modes exist and, for the basic ow at hand, are maximally amplied around F* = 130kHz. The wavenumbers and spatial distribution of amplitude functions of the centerline modes are documented

Sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of the inertial properties of railway vehicle bodies on the vehicle’s dynamic behaviour

A sensitivity analysis has been performed to assess the influence of the inertial properties of railway vehicles on their dynamic behaviour. To do this, 216 dynamic simulations were performed modifying, one at a time, the masses, moments of inertia and heights of the centre of gravity of the carbody, the bogie and the wheelset. Three values were assigned to each parameter, corresponding to the percentiles 10, 50 and 90 of a data set stored in a database of railway vehicles. After processing the results of these simulations, the analyzed parameters were sorted by increasing influence. It was also found which of these parameters could be estimated with a lesser degree of accuracy for future simulations without appreciably affecting the simulation results. In general terms, it was concluded that the most sensitive inertial properties are the mass and the vertical moment of inertia, and the least sensitive ones the longitudinal and lateral moments of inertia.

Sensitivity analysis for active matched antennas with non-foster elements

During the last years many researchers have been working on the active matching or on non-Foster matching networks for one- and two-port electrically small antennas (ESAs). A new parameter on the sensitivity of the two-port electrically small antenna when loaded with a non-F oster network is presented. This sensitivity analysis will allow us to choose what kind of antennas can be properly matched with non-Foster networks and their position in order to optimi ze the performance of the design. Then, a typical high Q two-port antenna will be harder to match over a broad bandwidth, since |S21| is very small and only agrees with |S11| over very small frequency bands, yielding very large sensitivity values. However, for these two-port antennas, if high levels of coupling can be engineered for a high Q multiple-port antenna, the return and insertion losses can be similar over larger bandwidths and, hence, the sensitivity can be kept low over larger bandwidths, enabling broader impedance matched bandwidths to be achieved, even for highly resonant antennas.

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Sensitivity analysis of vehicle design attributes that affect vehicle response in critical accident situations - part 1: user's manual. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.