Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO2 leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m(-2)) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 (3.3 W m(-2)) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m(-2)). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification.

An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO2 using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO2-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (285-570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO2 and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO2-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO2-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.

Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics

The way in which basal tractions, associated with mantle convection, couples with the lithosphere is a fundamental problem in geodynamics. A successful lithosphere-mantle coupling model for the Earth will satisfy observations of plate motions, intraplate stresses, and the plate boundary zone deformation. We solve the depth integrated three-dimensional force balance equations in a global finite element model that takes into account effects of both topography and shallow lithosphere structure as well as tractions originating from deeper mantle convection. The contribution from topography and lithosphere structure is estimated by calculating gravitational potential energy differences. The basal tractions are derived from a fully dynamic flow model with both radial and lateral viscosity variations. We simultaneously fit stresses and plate motions in order to delineate a best-fit lithosphere-mantle coupling model. We use both the World Stress Map and the Global Strain Rate Model to constrain the models. We find that a strongly coupled model with a stiff lithosphere and 3-4 orders of lateral viscosity variations in the lithosphere are best able to match the observational constraints. Our predicted deviatoric stresses, which are dominated by contribution from mantle tractions, range between 20-70 MPa. The best-fitting coupled models predict strain rates that are consistent with observations. That is, the intraplate areas are nearly rigid whereas plate boundaries and some other continental deformation zones display high strain rates. Comparison of mantle tractions and surface velocities indicate that in most areas tractions are driving, although in a few regions, including western North America, tractions are resistive. Citation: Ghosh, A., W. E. Holt, and L. M. Wen (2013), Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS ALONG THE TERRAIN GRADIENT OF DIVERSE LANDSCAPE

Land use (LU) land cover (LC) information at a temporal scale illustrates the physical coverage of the Earth's terrestrial surface according to its use and provides the intricate information for effective planning and management activities. LULC changes are stated as local and location specific, collectively they act as drivers of global environmental changes. Understanding and predicting the impact of LULC change processes requires long term historical restorations and projecting into the future of land cover changes at regional to global scales. The present study aims at quantifying spatio temporal landscape dynamics along the gradient of varying terrains presented in the landscape by multi-data approach (MDA). MDA incorporates multi temporal satellite imagery with demographic data and other additional relevant data sets. The gradient covers three different types of topographic features, planes; hilly terrain and coastal region to account the significant role of elevation in land cover change. The seasonality is another aspect to be considered in the vegetation dominated landscapes; variations are accounted using multi seasonal data. Spatial patterns of the various patches are identified and analysed using landscape metrics to understand the forest fragmentation. The prediction of likely changes in 2020 through scenario analysis has been done to account for the changes, considering the present growth rates and due to the proposed developmental projects. This work summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization as the causal factors for LULC change.

Effect of angle of incidence on mixed convective wake dynamics and heat transfer past a square cylinder in cross flow at Re=100

In this paper, a numerical investigation is performed to study the mixed convective flow and heat transfer characteristics past a square cylinder in cross flow at incidence. Utilizing air (Pr = 0.71) as an operating fluid, computations are carried out at a representative Reynolds number (Re) of 100. Angles of incidences are varied as, 0 degrees <= alpha <= 45 degrees. Effect of superimposed positive and negative cross-flow buoyancy is brought about by varying the Richardson number (RI) in the range -1.0 <= Ri <= 1.0. The detail features of flow topology and heat transport are analyzed critically for different angles of incidences. The thermo fluidic forces acting on the cylinder during mixed convection are captured in terms of the drag (C-D), lift (C-L), and moment (C-M) coefficients. The results show that the lateral width of the cylinder wake reduces with increasing alpha and the isotherms spread out far wide. In the range 0 degrees < alpha < 45 degrees, C-D reduces with increasing Ri. The functional dependence of C-M with Ri reveals a linear relationship. Thermal boundary layer thickness reduces with increasing angle of incidences. The global rate of heat transfer from the cylinder increases with increasing alpha. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Phenomenology and control of buckling dynamics in multicomponent colloidal droplets

Self-assembly of nano sized particles during natural drying causes agglomeration and shell formation at the surface of micron sized droplets. The shell undergoes sol-gel transition leading to buckling at the weakest point on the surface and produces different types of structures. Manipulation of the buckling rate with inclusion of surfactant (sodium dodecyl sulphate, SDS) and salt (anilinium hydrochloride, AHC) to the nano-sized particle dispersion (nanosilica) is reported here in an acoustically levitated single droplet. Buckling in levitated droplets is a cumulative, complicated function of acoustic streaming, chemistry, agglomeration rate, porosity, radius of curvature, and elastic energy of shell. We put forward our hypothesis on how buckling occurs and can be suppressed during natural drying of the droplets. Global precipitation of aggregates due to slow drying of surfactant-added droplets (no added salts) enhances the rigidity of the shell formed and hence reduces the buckling probability of the shell. On the contrary, adsorption of SDS aggregates on salt ions facilitates the buckling phenomenon with an addition of minute concentration of the aniline salt to the dispersion. Variation in the concentration of the added particles (SDS/AHC) also leads to starkly different morphologies and transient behaviour of buckling (buckling modes like paraboloid, ellipsoid, and buckling rates). Tuning of the buckling rate causes a transition in the final morphology from ring and bowl shapes to cocoon type of structure. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.

Fishery dynamics and present status of the yellowfin tuna population of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: From morphometric data, tagging results and reaction of the stock to fishing, it is inferred that the yellowfin tuna of the Eastern Pacific form a distinct population which intermingles little, if at all, with populations to the westward. Excellent statistics of catch and effort, and records of total catch, available since 1934, during rapid growth of the fishery, have made possible application of a generalized mathematical predator-prey model to estimate the effect of fishing on the population, and the average abundance and yield corresponding to different amounts of fishing effort, and also to estimate the rate of fishing mortality per unit of effort. From serial samples of size composition of catches, and from tagging experiments, it has been possible to determine rates of growth and of total mortality. These kinds of information permit application of the catch-per-recruit model of Beverton and Holt. Combination of the results of application of the Beverton and Holt model and of the generalized predator-prey model, leads to inference of the relationship between stock size and recruitment. The form of the relationship is remarkably similar to the theoretical model developed by W. E. Ricker. These studies, based on the data of the near-surface fishery by baitboats and purse seiners, indicate clearly that the increased intensity of fishing has caused diminution of the stocks to the point where they are somewhat "overfished"-that is, incapable of supporting the maximum sustainable average harvest. SPANISH: De los datos morfométricos, de los resultados de las marcaciones y de la reacción del stock a la pesca, se infiere que el atún aleta amarilla del Pacífico oriental forma una población diferente que se mezcla poco, si es que llega a mezclarse, con las poblaciones del oeste. Las excelentes estadísticas de la captura y el esfuerzo y los registros de la pesca global disponibles desde 1934, durante el rápido crecimiento de la pesquería, han hecho posible la aplicación de un modelo matemático generalizado depredador-presa para estimar el efecto de la pesca en la población y el promedio de la abundancia y del rendimiento correspondientes a los diferentes valores del esfuerzo de pesca, y también para estimar la tasa de la mortalidad de pesca por unidad de esfuerzo. Gracias a las muestras en serie de la composición de tamaños de las capturas y a los experimentos de marcación, ha sido posible determinar las tasas del crecimiento y de la mortalidad total. Estos tipos de información permiten la aplicación del modelo de la captura-porrecluta de Beverton y Holt. La combinación de los resultados de la aplicación del modelo de Beverton y Holt y del modelo generalizado depredador-presa, conduce a la inferencia de la relación entre el tamaño del stock y el reclutamiento. La forma de la relación es notoriamente similar al modelo teórico desarrollado por W. E. Ricker. Estos estudios, basados en los datos de la pesquería cerca de la superficie efectuada por barcos de carnada y rederos, indican claramente que el aumento de la intensidad de la pesca ha causado la disminución de los stocks hasta el punto de dejarlos algo "superexplotados", o sea, incapacitados para mantener una producción máxima promedio. (PDF contains 50 pages.)

Global Self-Organization of the Cellular Metabolic Structure

Background: Over many years, it has been assumed that enzymes work either in an isolated way, or organized in small catalytic groups. Several studies performed using "metabolic networks models'' are helping to understand the degree of functional complexity that characterizes enzymatic dynamic systems. In a previous work, we used "dissipative metabolic networks'' (DMNs) to show that enzymes can present a self-organized global functional structure, in which several sets of enzymes are always in an active state, whereas the rest of molecular catalytic sets exhibit dynamics of on-off changing states. We suggested that this kind of global metabolic dynamics might be a genuine and universal functional configuration of the cellular metabolic structure, common to all living cells. Later, a different group has shown experimentally that this kind of functional structure does, indeed, exist in several microorganisms. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we have analyzed around 2.500.000 different DMNs in order to investigate the underlying mechanism of this dynamic global configuration. The numerical analyses that we have performed show that this global configuration is an emergent property inherent to the cellular metabolic dynamics. Concretely, we have found that the existence of a high number of enzymatic subsystems belonging to the DMNs is the fundamental element for the spontaneous emergence of a functional reactive structure characterized by a metabolic core formed by several sets of enzymes always in an active state. Conclusions/Significance: This self-organized dynamic structure seems to be an intrinsic characteristic of metabolism, common to all living cellular organisms. To better understand cellular functionality, it will be crucial to structurally characterize these enzymatic self-organized global structures.

Feira de São Cristóvão: uma incursão sobre os estudos na área e a tentativa de aproximação à relação global-local

O presente trabalho se propõe fazer uma aproximação aos estudos sobre a tradicionalmente chamada Feira de São Cristóvão, levando em consideração a relação entre os agentes partícipes e a dinâmica no espaço. O objetivo é compreender melhor a força que move os atores no sentido da mudança da forma da feira para a forma do Centro Luiz Gonzaga de Tradições Nordestinas (CLGTN), e assim me aproximar da seguinte questão: Por que uma forma de comércio como a modelada na Feira de São Cristóvão, popularmente conhecida como feira dos paraíbas, sobrevive à força das mudanças operadas no ramo, dando lugar aos sofistificados shopping-centers? Para isso, faço uma aproximação ao estado de arte da pesquisa na área com base nas seguintes categorias de análise: a Feira como forma de produção do espaço e a relação Forma-Conteúdo, a relação espaço-identidade na feira e a relação entre agentes internos e externos no Espaço. Vendo a migração como movimento responsável pela constituição de um espaço social e territorialmente diferenciado do nordestino na cidade do Rio de Janeiro, é por ela que inicio a exposição. Esta se continua com a análise dos trabalhos escolhidos para estudo, via as categorias indicadas e, com um capítulo no qual procuro repensar a feira a partir da relação global-local que vem referenciando as reflexões acumuladas na área do urbano a partir da segunda metade do século XX. Por fim, concluo observando que a permanência da feira se deve a um duplo movimento de resistência-absorção que, se redefinindo no tempo e no espaço, não consegue, entretanto, apagar os traços da tradição que lhe deu origem.

First principles based multiparadigm modeling of electronic structures and dynamics

Electronic structures and dynamics are the key to linking the material composition and structure to functionality and performance.

An essential issue in developing semiconductor devices for photovoltaics is to design materials with optimal band gaps and relative positioning of band levels. Approximate DFT methods have been justified to predict band gaps from KS/GKS eigenvalues, but the accuracy is decisively dependent on the choice of XC functionals. We show here for CuInSe₂ and CuGaSe₂, the parent compounds of the promising CIGS solar cells, conventional LDA and GGA obtain gaps of 0.0-0.01 and 0.02-0.24 eV (versus experimental values of 1.04 and 1.67 eV), while the historically first global hybrid functional, B3PW91, is surprisingly the best, with band gaps of 1.07 and 1.58 eV. Furthermore, we show that for 27 related binary and ternary semiconductors, B3PW91 predicts gaps with a MAD of only 0.09 eV, which is substantially better than all modern hybrid functionals, including B3LYP (MAD of 0.19 eV) and screened hybrid functional HSE06 (MAD of 0.18 eV).

The laboratory performance of CIGS solar cells (> 20% efficiency) makes them promising candidate photovoltaic devices. However, there remains little understanding of how defects at the CIGS/CdS interface affect the band offsets and interfacial energies, and hence the performance of manufactured devices. To determine these relationships, we use the B3PW91 hybrid functional of DFT with the AEP method that we validate to provide very accurate descriptions of both band gaps and band offsets. This confirms the weak dependence of band offsets on surface orientation observed experimentally. We predict that the CBO of perfect CuInSe₂/CdS interface is large, 0.79 eV, which would dramatically degrade performance. Moreover we show that band gap widening induced by Ga adjusts only the VBO, and we find that Cd impurities do not significantly affect the CBO. Thus we show that Cu vacancies at the interface play the key role in enabling the tunability of CBO. We predict that Na further improves the CBO through electrostatically elevating the valence levels to decrease the CBO, explaining the observed essential role of Na for high performance. Moreover we find that K leads to a dramatic decrease in the CBO to 0.05 eV, much better than Na. We suggest that the efficiency of CIGS devices might be improved substantially by tuning the ratio of Na to K, with the improved phase stability of Na balancing phase instability from K. All these defects reduce interfacial stability slightly, but not significantly.

A number of exotic structures have been formed through high pressure chemistry, but applications have been hindered by difficulties in recovering the high pressure phase to ambient conditions (i.e., one atmosphere and room temperature). Here we use dispersion-corrected DFT (PBE-ulg flavor) to predict that above 60 GPa the most stable form of N₂O (the laughing gas in its molecular form) is a 1D polymer with an all-nitrogen backbone analogous to cis-polyacetylene in which alternate N are bonded (ionic covalent) to O. The analogous trans-polymer is only 0.03-0.10 eV/molecular unit less stable. Upon relaxation to ambient conditions both polymers relax below 14 GPa to the same stable non-planar trans-polymer, accompanied by possible electronic structure transitions. The predicted phonon spectrum and dissociation kinetics validate the stability of this trans-poly-NNO at ambient conditions, which has potential applications as a new type of conducting polymer with all-nitrogen chains and as a high-energy oxidizer for rocket propulsion. This work illustrates in silico materials discovery particularly in the realm of extreme conditions.

Modeling non-adiabatic electron dynamics has been a long-standing challenge for computational chemistry and materials science, and the eFF method presents a cost-efficient alternative. However, due to the deficiency of FSG representation, eFF is limited to low-Z elements with electrons of predominant s-character. To overcome this, we introduce a formal set of ECP extensions that enable accurate description of p-block elements. The extensions consist of a model representing the core electrons with the nucleus as a single pseudo particle represented by FSG, interacting with valence electrons through ECPs. We demonstrate and validate the ECP extensions for complex bonding structures, geometries, and energetics of systems with p-block character (C, O, Al, Si) and apply them to study materials under extreme mechanical loading conditions.

Despite its success, the eFF framework has some limitations, originated from both the design of Pauli potentials and the FSG representation. To overcome these, we develop a new framework of two-level hierarchy that is a more rigorous and accurate successor to the eFF method. The fundamental level, GHA-QM, is based on a new set of Pauli potentials that renders exact QM level of accuracy for any FSG represented electron systems. To achieve this, we start with using exactly derived energy expressions for the same spin electron pair, and fitting a simple functional form, inspired by DFT, against open singlet electron pair curves (H₂ systems). Symmetric and asymmetric scaling factors are then introduced at this level to recover the QM total energies of multiple electron pair systems from the sum of local interactions. To complement the imperfect FSG representation, the AMPERE extension is implemented, and aims at embedding the interactions associated with both the cusp condition and explicit nodal structures. The whole GHA-QM+AMPERE framework is tested on H element, and the preliminary results are promising.

Dynamics of non-Abelian Aharonov-Bohm systems

This thesis examines several examples of systems in which non-Abelian magnetic flux and non-Abelian forms of the Aharonov-Bohm effect play a role. We consider the dynamical consequences in these systems of some of the exotic phenomena associated with non-Abelian flux, such as Cheshire charge holonomy interactions and non-Abelian braid statistics. First, we use a mean-field approximation to study a model of U(2) non-Abelian anyons near its free-fermion limit. Some self-consistent states are constructed which show a small SU(2)-breaking charge density that vanishes in the fermionic limit. This is contrasted with the bosonic limit where the SU(2) asymmetry of the ground state can be maximal. Second, a global analogue of Chesire charge is described, raising the possibility of observing Cheshire charge in condensedmatter systems. A potential realization in superfluid He-3 is discussed. Finally, we describe in some detail a method for numerically simulating the evolution of a network of non-Abelian (S₃) cosmic strings, keeping careful track of all magnetic fluxes and taking full account of their non-commutative nature. I present some preliminary results from this simulation, which is still in progress. The early results are suggestive of a qualitatively new, non-scaling behavior.