The extrapolation problem and how population modeling can help

We argue that population modeling can add value to ecological risk assessment by reducing uncertainty when extrapolating from ecotoxicological observations to relevant ecological effects. We review other methods of extrapolation, ranging from application factors to species sensitivity distributions to suborganismal (biomarker and "-omics'') responses to quantitative structure activity relationships and model ecosystems, drawing attention to the limitations of each. We suggest a simple classification of population models and critically examine each model in an extrapolation context. We conclude that population models have the potential for adding value to ecological risk assessment by incorporating better understanding of the links between individual responses and population size and structure and by incorporating greater levels of ecological complexity. A number of issues, however, need to be addressed before such models are likely to become more widely used. In a science context, these involve challenges in parameterization, questions about appropriate levels of complexity, issues concerning how specific or general the models need to be, and the extent to which interactions through competition and trophic relationships can be easily incorporated.

DIRTMAP: the geological record of dust.

Atmospheric dust is an important feedback in the climate system, potentially affecting the radiative balance and chemical composition of the atmosphere and providing nutrients to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Yet the potential impact of dust on the climate system, both in the anthropogenically disturbed future and the naturally varying past, remains to be quantified. The geologic record of dust provides the opportunity to test earth system models designed to simulate dust. Records of dust can be obtained from ice cores, marine sediments, and terrestrial (loess) deposits. Although rarely unequivocal, these records document a variety of processes (source, transport and deposition) in the dust cycle, stored in each archive as changes in clay mineralogy, isotopes, grain size, and concentration of terrigenous materials. Although the extraction of information from each type of archive is slightly different, the basic controls on these dust indicators are the same. Changes in the dust flux and particle size might be controlled by a combination of (a) source area extent, (b) dust emission efficiency (wind speed) and atmospheric transport, (c) atmospheric residence time of dust, and/or (d) relative contributions of dry settling and rainout of dust. Similarly, changes in mineralogy reflect (a) source area mineralogy and weathering and (b) shifts in atmospheric transport. The combination of these geological data with process-based, forward-modelling schemes in global earth system models provides an excellent means of achieving a comprehensive picture of the global pattern of dust accumulation rates, their controlling mechanisms, and how those mechanisms may vary regionally. The Dust Indicators and Records of Terrestrial and MArine Palaeoenvironments (DIRTMAP) data base has been established to provide a global palaeoenvironmental data set that can be used to validate earth system model simulations of the dust cycle over the past 150,000 years.

Reappraisal of the effective elastic thickness for the sub-Andes using 3-D finite element flexural modelling, gravity and geological constraints

P>Estimates of effective elastic thickness (T(e)) for the western portion of the South American Plate using, independently, forward flexural modelling and coherence analysis, suggest different thermomechanical properties for the same continental lithosphere. We present a review of these T(e) estimates and carry out a critical reappraisal using a common methodology of 3-D finite element method to solve a differential equation for the bending of a thin elastic plate. The finite element flexural model incorporates lateral variations of T(e) and the Andes topography as the load. Three T(e) maps for the entire Andes were analysed: Stewart & Watts (1997), Tassara et al. (2007) and Perez-Gussinye et al. (2007). The predicted flexural deformation obtained for each T(e) map was compared with the depth to the base of the foreland basin sequence. Likewise, the gravity effect of flexurally induced crust-mantle deformation was compared with the observed Bouguer gravity. T(e) estimates using forward flexural modelling by Stewart & Watts (1997) better predict the geological and gravity data for most of the Andean system, particularly in the Central Andes, where T(e) ranges from greater than 70 km in the sub-Andes to less than 15 km under the Andes Cordillera. The misfit between the calculated and observed foreland basin subsidence and the gravity anomaly for the Maranon basin in Peru and the Bermejo basin in Argentina, regardless of the assumed T(e) map, may be due to a dynamic topography component associated with the shallow subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the Andes at these latitudes.

Archaeological Mounds in Marajo Island in Northern Brazil: A Geological Perspective Integrating Remote Sensing and Sedimentology

Earthen mounds with archaeological artifacts have been well known in Marajo Island since the 19th century. Their documented dimensions are impressive, e.g., up to 20m high, and with areas large as 90 ha. The mounds, locally known as lesos, impose a significant. relief on the very low-lying landscape of this region, which averages 4 to 6 in above present. sea level. These features have been traditionally interpreted as artificial constructions of the Marajoara culture, designed for defense, cemetery purposes, or escape from flooding. Here, we provide sedimentological and geomorphological data that suggest an alternative origin for these structures that is more consistent with their monumental sizes. Rather than artificial, the Marajoara tesos seem to consist of natural morphological features related to late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial, and possibly tidal-influenced, paleochannels and paleobars that became abandoned as depositional conditions changed through dine. Although utilized and modified by the Marajoara since at least 2000 years ago, these earthen mounds contain a significant non-anthropogenically modified sedimentary substratum. Therefore, the large Marajoara tesos are not entirely artificial. Ancient, Marajoara cultures took advantage of these natural, preexisting elevated surfaces to base their communities and develop their activities, locally increasing the sizes of these fluvial landforms. This alternative interpretation suggests less cumulative labor investment, in the construction of the mounds and might. have significant implications for reconstructing the organization of the Marajoara culture. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An artificial intelligence examination of the influence of geological conditions and changes in climate on damage to light structures in Victoria

Damage to light structures in the state of Victoria can be caused by movements of expansive soils. The presentation will present the results of an examination of reports of increasing complaints of house damage in Victoria and particularly in the Melbourne area. The examination analyses the influence of geology and change in climate using Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm approaches and assesses their relative importance in contributing to the cause of the damage.

Geological features of Permian ophiolite in the Jiaomuri area, Qiangtang, Tibet, and its tectonic significance

During the regional geological mapping of the 1∶250000 Mayigangri Sheet, a very complete ophiolite was discovered in the Jiaomuri area, which consists of radiolarian chert, pillow basalt, gabbro, diabase and metaperidotite. This ophiolite is the most intact and complete one in the central Qiangtang area.