Communication networks beyond the capacity crunch

This issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Part A represents a summary of the recent discussion meeting 'Communication networks beyond the capacity crunch'. The purpose of the meeting was to establish the nature of the capacity crunch, estimate the time scales associated with it and to begin to find solutions to enable continued growth in a post-crunch era. The meeting confirmed that, in addition to a capacity shortage within a single optical fibre, many other 'crunches' are foreseen in the field of communications, both societal and technical. Technical crunches identified included the nonlinear Shannon limit, wireless spectrum, distribution of 5G signals (front haul and back haul), while societal influences included net neutrality, creative content generation and distribution and latency, and finally energy and cost. The meeting concluded with the observation that these many crunches are genuine and may influence our future use of technology, but encouragingly noted that research and business practice are already moving to alleviate many of the negative consequences.

Response of spring diatoms to CO2 availability in the Western North Pacific as determined by next-generation sequencing

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have enabled us to determine phytoplankton community compositions at high resolution. However, few studies have adopted this approach to assess the responses of natural phytoplankton communities to environmental change. Here, we report the impact of different CO2 levels on spring diatoms in the Oyashio region of the western North Pacific as estimated by NGS of the diatom-specific rbcL gene (DNA), which encodes the large subunit of RubisCO. We also examined the abundance and composition of rbcL transcripts (cDNA) in diatoms to assess their physiological responses to changing CO2 levels. A short-term (3-day) incubation experiment was carried out on-deck using surface Oyashio waters under different pCO2 levels (180, 350, 750, and 1000 µatm) in May 2011. During the incubation, the transcript abundance of the diatom-specific rbcL gene decreased with an increase in seawater pCO2 levels. These results suggest that CO2 fixation capacity of diatoms decreased rapidly under elevated CO2 levels. In the high CO2 treatments (750 and 1000 µatm), diversity of diatom-specific rbcL gene and its transcripts decreased relative to the control treatment (350µatm), as well as contributions of Chaetocerataceae, Thalassiosiraceae, and Fragilariaceae to the total population, but the contributions of Bacillariaceae increased. In the low CO2 treatment, contributions of Bacillariaceae also increased together with other eukaryotes. These suggest that changes in CO2 levels can alter the community composition of spring diatoms in the Oyashio region. Overall, the NGS technology provided us a deeper understanding of the response of diatoms to changes in CO2 levels in terms of their community composition, diversity, and photosynthetic physiology.

Capacity Investment in Renewable and Conventional Energy Sources

This dissertation studies capacity investments in energy sources, with a focus on renewable technologies, such as solar and wind energy. We develop analytical models to provide insights for policymakers and use real data from the state of Texas to corroborate our findings.

We first take a strategic perspective and focus on electricity pricing policies. Specifically, we investigate the capacity investments of a utility firm in renewable and conventional energy sources under flat and peak pricing policies. We consider generation patterns and intermittency of solar and wind energy in relation to the electricity demand throughout a day. We find that flat pricing leads to a higher investment level for solar energy and it can still lead to more investments in wind energy if considerable amount of wind energy is generated throughout the day.

In the second essay, we complement the first one by focusing on the problem of matching supply with demand in every operating period (e.g., every five minutes) from the perspective of a utility firm. We study the interaction between renewable and conventional sources with different levels of operational flexibility, i.e., the possibility

of quickly ramping energy output up or down. We show that operational flexibility determines these interactions: renewable and inflexible sources (e.g., nuclear energy) are substitutes, whereas renewable and flexible sources (e.g., natural gas) are complements.

In the final essay, rather than the capacity investments of the utility firms, we focus on the capacity investments of households in rooftop solar panels. We investigate whether or not these investments may cause a utility death spiral effect, which is a vicious circle of increased solar adoption and higher electricity prices. We observe that the current rate-of-return regulation may lead to a death spiral for utility firms. We show that one way to reverse the spiral effect is to allow the utility firms to maximize their profits by determining electricity prices.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

W-CDMA capacity analysis using GIS based planning tools and MATLAB simulation

The evolution of cellular systems towards third generation (3G) or IMT-2000 seems to have a tendency to use W-CDMA as the standard access method, as ETSI decisions have showed. However, there is a question about the improvements in capacity and the wellness of this access method. One of the aspects that worry developers and researchers planning the third generation is the extended use of the Internet and more and more bandwidth hungry applications. This work shows the performance of a W-CDMA system simulated in a PC using cover maps generated with DC-Cell, a GIS based planning tool developed by the Technical University of Valencia, Spain. The maps are exported to MATLAB and used in the model. The system used consists of several microcells in a downtown area. We analyse the interference from users in the same cell and in adjacent cells and the effect in the system, assuming perfect control for each cell. The traffic generated by the simulator is voice and data. This model allows us to work with coverage that is more accurate and is a good approach to analyse the multiple access interference (MAI) problem in microcellular systems with irregular coverage. Finally, we compare the results obtained, with the performance of a similar system using TDMA.

Some parameters that affect CDMA capacity analysis. Results using GIS based simulation

In previous papers we describe a model for capacity analysis in CDMA systems using DC-Cell, a GIS based planning tool developed at Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, and MATLAB. We show some initial results of that model, and now, we are exploring different parameters like cell size, proximity between cells, number of cells in the system and “clustering” CDMA in order to improve the planning process for third generation systems. In this paper we show the results for variations of some of these parameters, specifically the cell size and number of cells. In CDMA systems is quite common to suppose only one carrier frequency for capacity estimation, and it is intuitive to think that for more base stations, mean more users. However the multiple access interference problem in CDMA systems could establish a limit for that supposition in a similar way that occurs in FDMA and TDMA systems.

The Influence of Propagation Model and Sectorization over WCDMA Capacity

In this paper we use a dynamic model that we have developed for WCDMA capacity analysis using MATLAB and a GIS based planning tool, to estimate the capacity of a mobile system under different conditions like number of cells, propagation model, sectorization and handover margin.

Cascade hydropower capacity increase profitability analysis with optimisation modelling

The electricity market and climate are both undergoing a change. The changes impact hydropower and provoke an interest for hydropower capacity increases. In this thesis a new methodology was developed utilising short-term hydropower optimisation and planning software for better capacity increase profitability analysis accuracy. In the methodology income increases are calculated in month long periods while varying average discharge and electricity price volatility. The monthly incomes are used for constructing year scenarios, and from different types of year scenarios a long-term profitability analysis can be made. Average price development is included utilising a multiplier. The method was applied on Oulujoki hydropower plants. It was found that the capacity additions that were analysed for Oulujoki were not profitable. However, the methodology was found versatile and useful. The result showed that short periods of peaking prices play major role in the profitability of capacity increases. Adding more discharge capacity to hydropower plants that initially bypassed water more often showed the best improvements both in income and power generation profile flexibility.

Analysis of Transmission System Adequacy Considering the Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow

Power flow calculations are one of the most important tools for power system planning and operation. The need to account for uncertainties when performing power flow studies led, among others methods, to the development of the fuzzy power flow (FPF). This kind of models is especially interesting when a scarcity of information exists, which is a common situation in liberalized power systems (where generation and commercialization of electricity are market activities). In this framework, the symmetric/constrained fuzzy power flow (SFPF/CFPF) was proposed in order to avoid some of the problems of the original FPF model. The SFPF/CFPF models are suitable to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy “reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity” as defined, for instance, in the European Directive 2009/72/EC. In this work it is illustrated how the SFPF/CFPF may be used to evaluate the impact on the adequacy of a transmission system originated by specific investments on new network elements

Capacity credit of microgeneration and microgrids

The recent development of the concept of microgrid (μGrid), associated to the emergent interest in microgeneration (μGen), has raised a number of challenges regarding the evaluation of the technical, economical and regulatory impacts of a high penetration of this kind of solutions in the power systems. In this paper, the topic of security of supply is addressed, aiming at evaluating the influence of μGen and μGrids in the medium- and long-term availability of generation to serve the forecasted load. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is used to evaluate this influence and to assess the capacity credit of those entities.

Advanced numerical modeling of masonry vaulted structures based on BIM parametric geometry generation

Vaults are an architectural element which during construction history have been built with a great variety of different materials, shapes, and sizes. The shape of these structural elements was often dependent by the necessity to cover complex spaces, by the needed loading capacity, or by architectural aesthetics. Within this complex scenario masonry patterns generates also different effects on loading capacity, load percolation and stiffness of the structure. These effects were been extensively investigated, both with empirical observations and with modern numerical methods. While most of them focus on analyzing the load bearing capacity or the texture effect on vaulted structures, the aim of this analysis is to investigate on the effects of the variation of a single structural characteristic on the load percolation in the vault. Moreover, an additional purpose of the work is related to the coding of a parametrical model aiming at generating different masonry vaulted structures. Nevertheless, proposed script can generate different typology of vaulted structure basing on some structural characteristics, such as the span and the length to cover and the dimensions of the blocks.

NLG-Metricverse: An End-to-End Library for Evaluating Natural Language Generation

Driven by recent deep learning breakthroughs, natural language generation (NLG) models have been at the center of steady progress in the last few years. However, since our ability to generate human-indistinguishable artificial text lags behind our capacity to assess it, it is paramount to develop and apply even better automatic evaluation metrics. To facilitate researchers to judge the effectiveness of their models broadly, we suggest NLG-Metricverse—an end-to-end open-source library for NLG evaluation based on Python. This framework provides a living collection of NLG metrics in a unified and easy- to-use environment, supplying tools to efficiently apply, analyze, compare, and visualize them. This includes (i) the extensive support of heterogeneous automatic metrics with n-arity management, (ii) the meta-evaluation upon individual performance, metric-metric and metric-human correlations, (iii) graphical interpretations for helping humans better gain score intuitions, (iv) formal categorization and convenient documentation to accelerate metrics understanding. NLG-Metricverse aims to increase the comparability and replicability of NLG research, hopefully stimulating new contributions in the area.

Extreme Harmonic Generation In Electrically Driven Spin Resonance.

We report the observation of multiple harmonic generation in electric dipole spin resonance in an InAs nanowire double quantum dot. The harmonics display a remarkable detuning dependence: near the interdot charge transition as many as eight harmonics are observed, while at large detunings we only observe the fundamental spin resonance condition. The detuning dependence indicates that the observed harmonics may be due to Landau-Zener transition dynamics at anticrossings in the energy level spectrum.

The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

Direct And Non-destructive Proof Of Authenticity For The 2nd Generation Of Brazilian Real Banknotes Via Easy Ambient Sonic Spray Ionization Mass Spectrometry.

Using a desorption/ionization technique, easy ambient sonic-spray ionization coupled to mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), documents related to the 2nd generation of Brazilian Real currency (R$) were screened in the positive ion mode for authenticity based on chemical profiles obtained directly from the banknote surface. Characteristic profiles were observed for authentic, seized suspect counterfeit and counterfeited homemade banknotes from inkjet and laserjet printers. The chemicals in the authentic banknotes' surface were detected via a few minor sets of ions, namely from the plasticizers bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DBP), most likely related to the official offset printing process, and other common quaternary ammonium cations, presenting a similar chemical profile to 1st-generation R$. The seized suspect counterfeit banknotes, however, displayed abundant diagnostic ions in the m/z 400-800 range due to the presence of oligomers. High-accuracy FT-ICR MS analysis enabled molecular formula assignment for each ion. The ions were separated by 44 m/z, which enabled their characterization as Surfynol® 4XX (S4XX, XX=40, 65, and 85), wherein increasing XX values indicate increasing amounts of ethoxylation on a backbone of 2,4,7,9-tetramethyl-5-decyne-4,7-diol (Surfynol® 104). Sodiated triethylene glycol monobutyl ether (TBG) of m/z 229 (C10H22O4Na) was also identified in the seized counterfeit banknotes via EASI(+) FT-ICR MS. Surfynol® and TBG are constituents of inks used for inkjet printing.