Are low CO2 emitters in rural areas also socially excluded? An empirical investigation of travel diary data from rural Northern Ireland

The reduction of CO2 emissions and social exclusion are two key elements of UK transport strategy. Despite intensive research on each theme, little effort has so far been made linking the relationship between emissions and social exclusion. In addition, current knowledge on each theme is limited to urban areas; little research is available on these themes for rural areas. This research contributes to this gap in the literature by analysing 157 weekly activity-travel diary data collected from three case study areas with differential levels of area accessibility and area mobility options, located in rural Northern Ireland. Individual weekly CO2 emission levels from personal travel diaries (both hot exhaust emission and cold-start emission) were calculated using average speed models for different modes of transport. The socio-spatial patterns associated with CO2 emissions were identified using a general linear model whereas binary logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify mode choice behaviour and activity patterns. This research found groups that emitted a significantly lower level of CO2 included individuals living in an area with a higher level of accessibility and mobility, non-car, non-working, and low-income older people. However, evidence in this research also shows that although certain groups (e.g. those working, and residing in an area with a lower level of accessibility) emitted higher levels of CO2, their rate of participation in activities was however found to be significantly lower compared to their counterparts. Based on the study findings, this research highlights the need for both soft (e.g. teleworking) and physical (e.g. accessibility planning) policy measures in rural areas in order to meet government’s stated CO2 reduction targets while at the same time enhancing social inclusion.

Closing the gap between bandit and full-information online optimization : high-probability regret bound

We demonstrate a modification of the algorithm of Dani et al for the online linear optimization problem in the bandit setting, which allows us to achieve an O( \sqrt{T ln T} ) regret bound in high probability against an adaptive adversary, as opposed to the in expectation result against an oblivious adversary of Dani et al. We obtain the same dependence on the dimension as that exhibited by Dani et al. The results of this paper rest firmly on those of Dani et al and the remarkable technique of Auer et al for obtaining high-probability bounds via optimistic estimates. This paper answers an open question: it eliminates the gap between the high-probability bounds obtained in the full-information vs bandit settings.

Unbiased estimation of the half-life to price index convergence among U.S. cities

Estimates of the half-life to convergence of prices across a panel of cities are subject to bias from three potential sources: inappropriate cross-sectional aggregation of heterogeneous coefficients, presence of lagged dependent variables in a model with individual fixed effects, and time aggregation of commodity prices. This paper finds no evidence of heterogeneity bias in annual CPI data for 17 U.S. cities from 1918 to 2006, but correcting for the “Nickell bias” and time aggregation bias produces a half-life of 7.5 years, shorter than estimates from previous studies.

Exercise for breast cancer survivors: bridging the gap between evidence and practice

Evidence supporting the benefits of exercise following the diagnosis of breast cancer is overwhelming and compelling. Exercise reduces the severity and number of treatment-related side effects, optimizes quality of life during and following treatment, and may optimize survival. Yet, exercise does not uniformly form part of the standards of care provided to women following a breast cancer diagnosis. This commentary summarizes the evidence in support of exercise as a form of adjuvant treatment and identifies and discusses potential issues preventing the formal integration of exercise into breast cancer care. Proposed within the commentary is a model of breast cancer care that incorporates exercise prescription as a key component but also integrates the need for surveillance and management for common breast cancer treatment-related morbidities, as well as education. While future research evaluating the potential cost savings through implementation of such amodel is required, a committed, collaborative approach by clinicians, allied health professionals, and researchers will be instrumental in bridging the gap between research and practice.

Using incomplete online metric maps for topological exploration with the Gap Navigation Tree

This paper presents a general, global approach to the problem of robot exploration, utilizing a topological data structure to guide an underlying Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) process. A Gap Navigation Tree (GNT) is used to motivate global target selection and occluded regions of the environment (called “gaps”) are tracked probabilistically. The process of map construction and the motion of the vehicle alters both the shape and location of these regions. The use of online mapping is shown to reduce the difficulties in implementing the GNT.

Cardiac ARIA Index: Measuring Accessibility to Cardiovascular Services in Rural and Remote Australia via Applied Geographic Spatial Technology

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impose a heavy burden in terms of cost, disability and death in Australia. Evidence suggests that increasing remoteness, where cardiac services are scarce, is linked to an increased risk of dying from CVD. Fatal CVD events are reported to be between 20% and 50% higher in rural areas compared to major cities. The Cardiac ARIA project, with its extensive use of geographic Information Systems (GIS), ranks each of Australia’s 20,387 urban, rural and remote population centres by accessibility to essential services or resources for the management of a cardiac event. This unique, innovative and highly collaborative project delivers a powerful tool to highlight and combat the burden imposed by cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia. Cardiac ARIA is innovative. It is a model that could be applied internationally and to other acute and chronic conditions such as mental health, midwifery, cancer, respiratory, diabetes and burns services. Cardiac ARIA was designed to: 1. Determine by expert panel, what were the minimal services and resources required for the management of a cardiac event in any urban, rural or remote population locations in Australia using a single patient pathway to access care. 2. Derive a classification using GIS accessibility modelling for each of Australia’s 20,387 urban, rural and remote population locations. 3. Compare the Cardiac ARIA categories and population locations with census derived population characteristics. Key findings are as follows: • In the event of a cardiac emergency, the majority of Australians had very good access to cardiac services. Approximately 71% or 13.9 million people lived within one hour of a category one hospital. • 68% of older Australians lived within one hour of a category one hospital (Principal Referral Hospital with access to Cardiac Catheterisation). • Only 40% of indigenous people lived within one hour of the category one hospital. • 16% (74000) of indigenous people lived more than one hour from a hospital. • 3% (91,000) of people 65 years of age or older lived more than one hour from any hospital or clinic. • Approximately 96%, or 19 million, of people lived within one hour of the four key services to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention. • 75% of indigenous people lived within one hour of the four cardiac rehabilitation services to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention. Fourteen percent (64,000 persons) indigenous people had poor access to the four key services to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention. • 12% (56,000) of indigenous people were more than one hour from a hospital and only had access one the four key services (usually a medical service) to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention.

Thomas Young’s investigations in gradient-index optics

Purpose: James Clerk Maxwell is usually recognized as being the first, in 1854, to consider using inhomogeneous media in optical systems. However, some fifty years earlier Thomas Young, stimulated by his interest in the optics of the eye and accommodation, had already modeled some applications of gradient-index optics. These applications included using an axial gradient to provide spherical aberration-free optics and a spherical gradient to describe the optics of the atmosphere and the eye lens. We evaluated Young’s contributions. Method: We attempted to derive Young’s equations for axial and spherical refractive index gradients. Raytracing was used to confirm accuracy of formula. Results: We did not confirm Young’s equation for the axial gradient to provide aberration-free optics, but derived a slightly different equation. We confirmed the correctness of his equations for deviation of rays in a spherical gradient index and for the focal length of a lens with a nucleus of fixed index surrounded by a cortex of reducing index towards the edge. Young claimed that the equation for focal length applied to a lens with part of the constant index nucleus of the sphere removed, such that the loss of focal length was a quarter of the thickness removed, but this is not strictly correct. Conclusion: Young’s theoretical work in gradient-index optics received no acknowledgement from either his contemporaries or later authors. While his model of the eye lens is not an accurate physiological description of the human lens, with the index reducing least quickly at the edge, it represented a bold attempt to approximate the characteristics of the lens. Thomas Young’s work deserves wider recognition.

Can the Cardiac ARIA Index Improve Cardiac Care for Australia's Indigenous Population?

Background: Timely access to appropriate cardiac care is critical for optimising outcomes. Our aim was to derive an objective, comparable, geographic measure reflecting access to cardiac services for Australia's 20,387 population locations. Methods: An expert panel defined a single patient care pathway. Using geographic information systems (GIS) the numeric/alpha index was modelled in two phases. The acute phase index (numeric) ranged from 1 (access to tertiary centre with PCI ≤1 h) to 8 (no ambulance service, >3 h to medical facility, air transport required). The aftercare index was modelled into 5 alphabetic categories; A (Access to general practitioner, pharmacy, cardiac rehabilitation, pathology ≤1 h) to E (no services available within 1 h). Results: Approximately 70% or 13.9 million people lived within a CardiacARIAindex category 1A location. Disparity continues in access to category 1A cardiac services for 5.8 million (30%) of all Australians, 60% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and 32% of people over 65 years of age. In a cardiac emergency only 40% of the Indigenous population reside within one hour of category 1 hospital. Approximately 30% (81,491 Indigenous persons) are more than one to three hours from basic cardiac services. Conclusion: Geographically, the majority of Australian's have timely access for survival of a cardiac event. The CardiacARIAindex objectively demonstrates that the healthcare system may not be providing for the needs of 60% of Indigenous people residing outside the 1A geographic radius. Innovative clinical practice maybe required to address these disparities.

Where not to have a Heart Attack in Australia!: The Cardiac ARIA Index

Background/aims: Access to appropriate health care following an acute cardiac event is important for positive outcomes. The aim of the Cardiac ARIA index was to derive an objective, comparable, geographic measure reflecting access to cardiac services across Australia. Methods: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to model a numeric-alpha index based on acute management from onset of symptoms to return to the community. Acute time frames have been calculated to include time for ambulance to arrive, assess and load patient, and travel to facility by road 40–80 kph. Results: The acute phase of the index was modelled into five categories: 1 [24/7 percutaneous cardiac intervention (PCI) ≤1 h]; 2 [24/7 PCI 1–3 h, and PCI less than an additional hour to nearest accident and emergency room (A&E)]: 3 [Nearest A&E ≤3 h (no 24/7 PCI within an extra hour)]: 4 [Nearest A&E 3–12 h (no 24/7 PCI within an extra hour)]: 5 [Nearest A&E 12–24 h (no 24/7 PCI within an extra hour)]. Discharge care was modelled into three categories based on time to a cardiac rehabilitation program, retail pharmacy, pathology services, hospital, GP or remote clinic: (A) all services ≤30 min; (B) >30 min and ≤60 min; (C) >60 min. Examples of the index indicate that the majority of population locations within capital cities were category 1A; Alice Springs and Byron Bay were 3A; and the Northern Territory town of Maningrida had minimal access to cardiac services with an index ranking of 5C. Conclusion: The Cardiac ARIA index provides an invaluable tool to inform appropriate strategies for the use of scarce cardiac resources.

An analysis of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure

Each financial year concessions, benefits and incentives are delivered to taxpayers via the tax system. These concessions, benefits and incentives, referred to as tax expenditure, differ from direct expenditure because of the recurring fiscal impact without regular scrutiny through the federal budget process. There are approximately 270 different tax expenditures existing within the current tax regime with total measured tax expenditures in the 2005-06 financial year estimated to be around $42.1 billion, increasing to $52.7 billion by 2009-10. Each year, new tax expenditures are introduced, while existing tax expenditures are modified and deleted. In recognition of some of the problems associated with tax expenditure, a Tax Expenditure Statement, as required by the Charter of Budget Honesty Act 1988, is produced annually by the Australian Federal Treasury. The Statement details the various expenditures and measures in the form of concessions, benefits and incentives provided to taxpayers by the Australian Government and calculates the tax expenditure in terms of revenue forgone. A similar approach to reporting tax expenditure, with such a report being a legal requirement, is followed by most OECD countries. The current Tax Expenditure Statement lists 270 tax expenditures and where it is able to, reports on the estimated pecuniary value of those expenditures. Apart from the annual Tax Expenditure Statement, there is very little other scrutiny of Australia’s Federal tax expenditure program. While there has been various academic analysis of tax expenditure in Australia, when compared to the North American literature, it is suggested that the Australian literature is still in its infancy. In fact, one academic author who has contributed to tax expenditure analysis recently noted that there is ‘remarkably little secondary literature which deals at any length with tax expenditures in the Australian context.’ Given this perceived gap in the secondary literature, this paper examines fundamental concept of tax expenditure and considers the role it plays in to the current tax regime as a whole, along with the effects of the introduction of new tax expenditures. In doing so, tax expenditure is contrasted with direct expenditure. An analysis of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure is already a sophisticated and comprehensive body of work stemming from the US over the last three decades. As such, the title of this paper is rather misleading. However, given the lack of analysis in Australia, it is appropriate that this paper undertakes a consideration of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure in an Australian context. Given this proposition, rather than purport to undertake a comprehensive analysis of tax expenditure which has already been done, this paper discusses the substantive considerations of any such analysis to enable further investigation into the tax expenditure regime both as a whole and into individual tax expenditure initiatives. While none of the propositions in this paper are new in a ‘tax expenditure analysis’ sense, this debate is a relatively new contribution to the Australian literature on the tax policy. Before the issues relating to tax expenditure can be determined, it is necessary to consider what is meant by ‘tax expenditure’. As such, part two if this paper defines ‘tax expenditure’. Part three determines the framework in which tax expenditure can be analysed. It is suggested that an analysis of tax expenditure must be evaluated within the framework of the design criteria of an income tax system with the key features of equity, efficiency, and simplicity. Tax expenditure analysis can then be applied to deviations from the ideal tax base. Once it is established what is meant by tax expenditure and the framework for evaluation is determined, it is possible to establish the substantive issues to be evaluated. This paper suggests that there are four broad areas worthy of investigation; economic efficiency, administrative efficiency, whether tax expenditure initiatives achieve their policy intent, and the impact on stakeholders. Given these areas of investigation, part four of this paper considers the issues relating to the economic efficiency of the tax expenditure regime, in particular, the effect on resource allocation, incentives for taxpayer behaviour and distortions created by tax expenditures. Part five examines the notion of administrative efficiency in light of the fact that most tax expenditures could simply be delivered as direct expenditures. Part six explores the notion of policy intent and considers the two questions that need to be asked; whether any tax expenditure initiative reaches its target group and whether the financial incentives are appropriate. Part seven examines the impact on stakeholders. Finally, part eight considers the future of tax expenditure analysis in Australia.