Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Improved Direct Power Control of Grid Connected DC/AC Converters

This paper proposes new direct power control (DPC) strategies for three-phase DC/AC converters with improved dynamic response and steady-state performance. As with an electrical machine, source and converter flux which equal the integration of the respective source and converter voltage are used to define active and reactive power flow. Optimization of the look-up-table used in conventional DPC is outlined first, to improve the power control and reduce the current distortion. Then constant switching frequency DPC is developed where the required converter voltage vector within a fixed half switching period is calculated directly from the active and reactive power errors. Detailed angle compensation due to the finite sampling frequency and the use of integral controller to further improve the power control accuracy, are described. Both simulation and experimental results are used to compare conventional DPC and vector control, and to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control strategies during active and reactive power steps, and line inductance variations.

A Wavelet-Prony Method for Modeling of Fixed-Speed Wind Farm Low-Frequency Power Pulsations

The increasing penetration of wind generation on the Island of Ireland has been accompanied by close investigation of low-frequency pulsations contained within active power flow. A primary concern is excitation of low-frequency oscillation modes already present on the system, particularly the 0.75 Hz mode as a consequence of interconnection between the Northern and Southern power system networks. In order to determine whether the prevalence of wind generation has a negative effect (excites modes) or positive impact (damping of modes) on the power system, oscillations must be measured and characterised. Using time – frequency methods, this paper presents work that has been conducted to extract features from low-frequency active power pulsations to determine the composition of oscillatory modes which may impact on dynamic stability. The paper proposes a combined wavelet-Prony method to extract modal components and determine damping factors. The method is exemplified using real data obtained from wind farm measurements.

Application of PMUs to Coordinate Hydroelectric and Wind Power Plant Operation

It is acknowledged that wind power is a stochastic energy source compared to hydroelectric generation which is easily scheduled. In this paper a scheme for coordinating wind power plant and hydroelectric power plant is presented by using PMUs to measure and control the state of wind and hydro power plants. Hydroelectric generation is proposed as a method of energy reserve and compensation in the context of wind power fluctuation in order to avoid full or partial curtailment of wind generation to benefit wind providers. The feasibility of this proposed scheme is investigated by power flow calculation and stability analysis using the IEEE 30-bus power system model.

Analysis of Fixed-Speed Wind Farm Low-Frequency Power Pulsations using a Wavelet-Prony Method

The increasing penetration of wind generation on the Island of Ireland has been accompanied by close investigation of low-frequency periodic pulsations contained within the active power flow from different wind farms. A primary concern is excitation of existing low-frequency oscillation modes already present on the system, particularly the 0.75 Hz mode as a consequence of the interconnected Northern and Southern power system networks. Recently grid code requirements on the Northern Ireland power system have been updated stipulating that wind farms connected after 2005 must be able to control the magnitude of oscillations in the range of 0.25 - 1.75 Hz to within 1% of the wind farm's registered output. In order to determine whether wind farm low-frequency oscillations have a negative effect (excite other modes) or possibly a positive impact (damping of existing modes) on the power system, the oscillations at the point of connection must be measured and characterised. Using time - frequency methods, research presented in this paper has been conducted to extract signal features from measured low-frequency active power pulsations produced by wind farms to determine the effective composition of possible oscillatory modes which may have a detrimental effect on system dynamic stability. The paper proposes a combined wavelet-Prony method to extract modal components and determine damping factors. The method is exemplified using real data obtained from wind farm measurements.

The Impact of Wind Farm Power Oscillations on the Irish Power System

The impact of power fluctuations arising from fixed-speed wind turbines on the magnitude and frequency of inter-area oscillations has been investigated. The authors introduced data acquisition equipment to record the power flow on the interconnector between the Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland systems. Through monitoring the interconnector oscillation using a fast Fourier transform, it was possible to determine the magnitude and frequency of the inter-area oscillation between the two systems. The impact of tower shadow on the output power from a wind farm was analysed using data recorded on site. A case study investigates the effect on the system of the removal of a large fixed-speed wind farm. Conclusions are drawn on the impact that conventional generation and the output from fixed-speed wind farms have on the stability of the Irish power system.

Small Signal Stability Performance of Power System during High Penetration of Wind Generation

The small signal stability of interconnected power systems is one of the important aspects that need to be investigated since the oscillations caused by this kind of instability have caused many incidents. With the increasing penetration of wind power in the power system, particularly doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), the impact on the power system small signal stability performance should be fully investigated. Because the DFIG wind turbine integration is through a fast action converter and associated control, it does not inherently participate in the electromechanical small signal oscillation. However, it influences the small signal stability by impacting active power flow paths in the network and replacing synchronous generators that have power system stabilizer (PSS). In this paper, the IEEE 39 bus test system has been used in the analysis. Furthermore, four study cases and several operation scenarios have been conducted and analysed. The selective eigenvalue Arnoldi/lanczos's method is used to obtain the system eigenvalue in the range of frequency from 0.2 Hz to 2 Hz which is related to electromechanical oscillations. Results show that the integration of DFIG wind turbines in a system during several study cases and operation scenarios give different influence on small signal stability performance.

An approach to determine the local boundary of small disturbance voltage stability region in a cut-set power space:基于微扰的割集电压稳定域局部边界求解方法

A new approach to determine the local boundary of voltage stability region in a cut-set power space (CVSR) is presented. Power flow tracing is first used to determine the generator-load pair most sensitive to each branch in the interface. The generator-load pairs are then used to realize accurate small disturbances by controlling the branch power flow in increasing and decreasing directions to obtain new equilibrium points around the initial equilibrium point. And, continuous power flow is used starting from such new points to get the corresponding critical points around the initial critical point on the CVSR boundary. Then a hyperplane cross the initial critical point can be calculated by solving a set of linear algebraic equations. Finally, the presented method is validated by some systems, including New England 39-bus system, IEEE 118-bus system, and EPRI-1000 bus system. It can be revealed that the method is computationally more efficient and has less approximation error. It provides a useful approach for power system online voltage stability monitoring and assessment. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50707019), Special Fund of the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2009CB219701), Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of PR China (No. 200439), Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Development Program (No. 09JCZDJC25000), National Major Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs of China During the 11th Five-year Plan Period (No. 2006BAJ03A06). ©2009 State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Press.

Long-Term Economic Model for Allocation of FACTS Devices in Restructured Power System Integrated Wind Generation

This study proposes an approach to optimally allocate multiple types of flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices in market-based power systems with wind generation. The main objective is to maximise profit by minimising device investment cost, and the system's operating cost considering both normal conditions and possible contingencies. The proposed method accurately evaluates the long-term costs and benefits gained by FACTS devices (FDs) installation to solve a large-scale optimisation problem. The objective implies maximising social welfare as well as minimising compensations paid for generation re-scheduling and load shedding. Many technical operation constraints and uncertainties are included in problem formulation. The overall problem is solved using both particle swarm optimisations for attaining optimal FDs allocation as main problem and optimal power flow as sub-optimisation problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on modified IEEE 14-bus test system and IEEE 118-bus test system.

Reactive power compensation by EPSO technique

This paper presents a methodology to address reactive power compensation using Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) technique programmed in the MATLAB environment. The main objective is to find the best operation point minimizing power losses with reactive power compensation, subjected to all operational constraints, namely full AC power flow equations, active and reactive power generation constraints. The methodology has been tested with the IEEE 14 bus test system demonstrating the ability and effectiveness of the proposed approach to handle the reactive power compensation problem.

Optimal dispatch with reactive power compensation by Genetic Algorithm

This paper presents a Unit Commitment model with reactive power compensation that has been solved by Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization techniques. The GA has been developed a computational tools programmed/coded in MATLAB. The main objective is to find the best generations scheduling whose active power losses are minimal and the reactive power to be compensated, subjected to the power system technical constraints. Those are: full AC power flow equations, active and reactive power generation constraints. All constraints that have been represented in the objective function are weighted with a penalty factors. The IEEE 14-bus system has been used as test case to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Results and conclusions are dully drawn.

Simulation model for driving dynamics, energy use and power supply

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a decision support tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy resource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Voltage Analysis and Load Curtailment Minimization in Sub-transmission Networks with Distributed Generation

Most of distributed generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to network operation parameters studies, reliability, etc. However, many of these works normally uses traditional test systems, for instance, IEEE test systems. This paper proposes voltage magnitude and reliability studies in presence of fault conditions, considering realistic conditions found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12-bus sub-transmission network.

A study on semigroup action on fuzzy subsets, inverse fuzzy automata and related topics

This thesis comprises five chapters including the introductory chapter. This includes a brief introduction and basic definitions of fuzzy set theory and its applications, semigroup action on sets, finite semigroup theory, its application in automata theory along with references which are used in this thesis. In the second chapter we defined an S-fuzzy subset of X with the extension of the notion of semigroup action of S on X to semigroup action of S on to a fuzzy subset of X using Zadeh's maximal extension principal and proved some results based on this. We also defined an S-fuzzy morphism between two S-fuzzy subsets of X and they together form a category S FSETX. Some general properties and special objects in this category are studied and finally proved that S SET and S FSET are categorically equivalent. Further we tried to generalize this concept to the action of a fuzzy semigroup on fuzzy subsets. As an application, using the above idea, we convert a _nite state automaton to a finite fuzzy state automaton. A classical automata determine whether a word is accepted by the automaton where as a _nite fuzzy state automaton determine the degree of acceptance of the word by the automaton. 1.5. Summary of the Thesis 17 In the third chapter we de_ne regular and inverse fuzzy automata, its construction, and prove that the corresponding transition monoids are regular and inverse monoids respectively. The languages accepted by an inverse fuzzy automata is an inverse fuzzy language and we give a characterization of an inverse fuzzy language. We study some of its algebraic properties and prove that the collection IFL on an alphabet does not form a variety since it is not closed under inverse homomorphic images. We also prove some results based on the fact that a semigroup is inverse if and only if idempotents commute and every L-class or R-class contains a unique idempotent. Fourth chapter includes a study of the structure of the automorphism group of a deterministic faithful inverse fuzzy automaton and prove that it is equal to a subgroup of the inverse monoid of all one-one partial fuzzy transformations on the state set. In the fifth chapter we define min-weighted and max-weighted power automata study some of its algebraic properties and prove that a fuzzy automaton and the fuzzy power automata associated with it have the same transition monoids. The thesis ends with a conclusion of the work done and the scope of further study.