Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador

This paper investigates the fiscal sustainability of an emerging, dollarized, oil-exporting country: Ecuador. A cointegrated VAR approach is adopted in testing, first, if the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied in Ecuador and, second, in identifying the permanent and transitory shocks that affect a fiscal policy characterized by inertia and a heavy dependence on oil revenues. Following confirmation that the debt-GDP ratio does not place the Ecuadorian budget under any pressure, we reformulate the model and identify two forces that push the fiscal system out of equilibrium, namely, economic activity and oil revenues implemented in the government budget. We argue that Ecuador needs to recover control of its monetary policy and to promote the diversification of its economy in order that non-oil tax revenues can replace oil revenues as a pushing force. Finally, we calculate quarterly elasticities of tax revenues with respect to Ecuador’s GDP and that of eight Eurozone countries. We illustrate graphically how the Eurozone countries with low positive or high negative elasticities’ levels suffer debt problems after the crisis. This finding emphasizes the pressing need for Ecuador to strengthen the connection between its tax revenues and output, and also suggests that the convergence of these elasticities in the Eurozone might contribute to the success of an eventually future fiscal union.

Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator : why firms do not increase prices?

Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methods are being increasingly used to analyze the impact of mergers on pricing and other market equilibrium outcomes. Using evidence from an exogenous merger between two retail gasoline companies in a specific market in Spain, this paper shows how concentration did not lead to a price increase. In fact, the conjectural variation model concludes that the existence of a collusive agreement before and after the merger accounts for this result, rather than the existence of efficient gains. This result may explain empirical evidence reported in the literature according to which mergers between firms do not have significant effects on prices.

Vertical relations and local competition : an empirical approach

The analysis of vertical industry relations forms an essential element in the field of industrial organization. This paper tests hypotheses derived from transaction cost theory and the principal-agent problem in Chile’s petrol market. It shows that local competition plays an important role in the choice of a disintegrated vertical structure, and that low levels of service investment have the same effect. Conversely, the number of own-brand outlets and a high level of investment in services reduce the probability of disintegration. The paper demonstrates that vertical disintegration has a null effect on wholesale petrol prices and a positive effect on retail petrol prices of between 1.6 and 7 per cent, depending on fuel type.

Commerce in disguise : war and trade in the Caribbean free port of Gustavia, 1793–1815

ISBN 978-951-765-806-5Avhandlingen studerar frihamnen Gustavia på ön S:t Barthélemy, den svenska kolonin i Västindien, under de franska revolutionskrigen 1793-1815. Syftet är att kartlägga den ekonomiska aktiviteten genom Gustavia genom ett outforskat källmaterial och analysera hamnens roll i Västindien och i den atlantiska ekonomin under krigsåren. Det viktigaste resultatet av undersökningen är att den påvisar den kortvariga men exceptionella position som Gustavia fick under krigen, vilket ledde till att stora varuflöden gick genom den svenska kolonin och att sjöfart under svensk flagg i regionen tilltog. Krigskonjunkturen hämtade till ön ett stort antal nya invånare, framförallt från angränsande karibiska kolonier men också från USA och Europa. Frihamnen och ön fungerade kort under några decennier som en global marknadsplats i Västindien för handelsmän som kringgick blockader och handelsförbud. Vidare närmar sig även avhandlingen frågor om Sveriges engagemang i slavhandeln på ett systematiskt sätt, och demonstrerar att den svenska slavhandeln var mer omfattande än den tidigare forskningen visat, speciellt efter att rörelsen för slavhandelns förbud fått ett starkt fäste i Storbritannien. De tidigare stora internationella undersökningarna om slavhandeln har ofta missat det svenska inslaget. S:t Barthélemy har fått relativt lite uppmärksamhet i den svenska historieforskningen, och har ofta skildrats som ett exotiskt och ganska betydelselöst inslag i Sverige 1800-talshistoria. Mycket av den tidigare forskningen präglas av det nationalhistoriska perspektivet med kolonins länkar till Stockholm i blickfånget. Avhandlingen påvisar att länkarna mellan kolonin och Stockholm var fåtaliga och att dess ekonomiska betydelse för Sverige var ytterst liten. Däremot omvärderar avhandlingen kolonins betydelsefulla roll i ett större internationellt sammanhang. ----------------------------------------------------------- Väitöskirja käsittelee Gustavian vapaasatamaa Ruotsin Länsi-Intian siirtomaassa Saint-Barthélemyn saarella, Ranskan vallankumoussotien aikana 1793–1815. Tarkoitus on ollut kartoittaa Gustavian kautta kulkevaa taloudellista toimintaa tutkimattomien lähteiden avulla ja arvioida sataman asemaa Länsi-Intiassa sekä atlanttisessa taloudessa sotavuosina.Väitöskirjan tärkein tulos osoittaa sataman sotien aikana saavuttamaa lyhytkestoista mutta poikkeuksellista roolia, mikä johti suuren kaupankäynnin saapumiseen ruotsalaissiirtomaahan sekä siihen, että merenkulku ruotsalaisen lipun alla kiihtyi Länsi-Intian alueella. Sotatalouden nousukausi aikaansai pienelle saarelle muuttoliikkeen myötä suuren väestönkasvun, jonka lähteenä olivat pääsääntöisesti lähisaaret, mutta osa uusista asukkaista tuli myös Yhdysvalloista ja Euroopasta. Gustavian vapaasatama toimi muutaman vuosikymmenen ajan globaalina markkinapaikkana Länsi-Intian kauppamiehille, joilla oli tarve kiertää kauppasaartoja ja -kieltoja. Lisäksi väitöskirja lähestyy kysymystä Ruotsin osallistumisesta orjankauppaan ja osoittaa että ruotsalainen orjakauppa oli laajempaa kuin aiempi tutkimus on väittänyt, etenkin sen jälkeen kun kansanliike orjakauppaa vastaan oli saavuttanut vahvan tuen Iso-Britanniassa. Aiemmat laajat kansainväliset kartoitukset orjakaupasta ovat usein ohittaneet ruotsalaisten osallisuutta tässä yhteydessä. Saint-Barthélemy on aiemmin saanut suhteellisen vähän huomiota ruotsalaisessa historiankirjoituksessa, ja sitä on usein hahmoteltu eksoottisena ja melko merkityksettömänä osana Ruotsin 1800-luvun historiaa. Aiempaa tutkimusta on paljolti leimannut kansallinen historiankirjoitus, jonka keskeisenä kiinnostuksena ovat olleet saaren yhteydet Tukholmaan. Väitöskirja osoittaa kuitenkin että nämä yhteydet olivat heikkoja ja että siirtomaan taloudellinen merkitys Ruotsille oli hyvinkin pieni. Toisaalta väitöskirja arvioi siirtomaan todellista ja tärkeää roolia uudelleen sijoittamalla sen isompaan kansainväliseen asiayhteyteen.

Consumer’s purchase intention of ethical fashion. Examining beliefs about fashion industry and attitudes towards ethical fashion

Globalization and the developments of supply chain have made inexpensive labor and the low production costs of developing countries available to businesses worldwide. Unfortunately, these developments have also led to the exploitation of human and natural resources. The increasing supply of cheap and fashionable clothing has created a contradiction between consumers’ concerns for sustainability and their purchase behavior in the fashion industry. Since the uncovering of several sweatshop scandals in the 1980’s and 1990’s ethical fashion brands have started to emerge. Ethical fashion has sparked the interest of consumers and studies have shown promising positive attitudes towards it. However, these attitudes have failed to translate into action and purchase behavior of ethical fashion has not reached the expectations. In order to translate the positive attitudes into buying companies must understand consumer’s motivations and reasons behind the purchase decision. The objective of this study is to understand the antecedents behind young consumer’s purchase intention of ethical fashion. The study is based on the theory of planned behavior which has been widely used to study consumer behavior and purchase decisions. The theory has also been used in ethical decision-making and fashion context before. According to the theory, in order to understand purchase intentions consumer’s attitudes toward buying ethical fashion were studied. The theory also states that attitudes are formed from beliefs, thus, consumer’s beliefs about the fashion industry were studied. To contribute to existing research, the effect of sweatshop issues and environmental issues were compared. The data was collected from university students (n=617) with an online survey. The results were analyzed by statistical methods and they revealed that young Finnish consumers hold positive attitudes towards buying ethical fashion as well as positive purchase intentions of ethical fashion. A strong relationship was found between positive attitudes and positive purchase intentions. Also, the more negative consumers’ beliefs of the fashion industry were the more positive their attitudes toward buying ethical fashion were. In contradiction to previous research this study revealed that environmental issues had greater effect on attitudes than sweatshop issues. Interesting differences between consumers were found depending on their field of education. Students from humanities and social sciences held the most negative beliefs as well as most positive attitudes and purchase intentions of ethical fashion.

Assessment of Energy Conservation in Indian Cement Industry and Forecasting of Co2 Emissions

Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries

Benefits of Implementing Lean Practices and the Impact of the Lean Aerospace Initiative in the Defense Aerospace Industry and Government Agencies

In the 1980’s, many United States industrial organizations started developing new production processes to improve quality, reduce cost, and better respond to customer needs and the pressures of global competition. This new paradigm was coined Lean Production (or simply “Lean”) in the book The Machine That Changed The World published in 1990 by researchers from MIT’s International Motor Vehicle Program. In 1993, a consortium of US defense aerospace firms and the USAF Aeronautical Systems Center, together with the AFRL Materials and Manufacturing Directorate, started the Lean Aircraft Initiative (LAI) at MIT. With expansion in 1998 to include government space products, the program was renamed the Lean Aerospace Initiative. LAI’s vision is to “Significantly reduce the cost and cycle time for military aerospace products throughout the entire value chain while continuing to improve product performance.” By late 1998, 23 industry and 13 government organizations with paying memberships, along with MIT and the UAW were participating in the LAI.

Competitiveness and Trade Policy Problems in Agricultural Exports: The Case of Colombia. Doctoral Thesis Project

Este estudio explora el estado actual y el potencial competitivo de las exportaciones agrícolas colombianas a los mercados de Estados Unidos y la Unión Eurpea. Los mercados de estos paises industrializados se constituyen en los más importantes para Colombia, pero al mismo tiempo tienen varias restricciones en el sector agrícola. Este estudio mostrará que la competitividad no es solamente una función de los impedimentos locales o internacionales tales como la pobreza institucional, la baja capacidad tecnológica, la disponibilidad de capital, capital humano y mano de obra, sino también de impedimentos externos como el acceso a los mercados. Por lo tanto, éste es un importante objetivo del presente estudio con el objeto de proyectar posibles escenarios para el comercio colombiano, a fin de investigar la eliminación de estas restricciones. En la parte empírica se enfatizará en los impactos de las restricciones externas en el sentido de un estudio econométrico, sin embargo, la influencia de las restricciones internas será discutida como tal.

Piecemeal Oligopoly, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Trade Policy.

Este artículo analiza el efecto sistemático de la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio, cuando un gobierno local debe evaluar políticas comerciales estratégicas lineales y cuadráticas. Este ejercicio se realiza para modelos de mercado Cournot y Bertran. El modelo prueba que tanto el esquema lineal como el cuadrático tienen el mismo efecto sobre el bienestar social de los países, y que la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio domestica lleva a los gobiernos a reducir los subsidios a las exportaciones o bajan los impuestos a las exportaciones, de acuerdo a la variable estratégica elegida por las firmas. La tasa de cambio extranjera tiene diferentes efectos dependiendo de si las firmas producen bajos rendimientos a escalas constantes o decrecientes.