Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

A network of integrate and fire neurons for visual selection

Biological systems have facility to capture salient object(s) in a given scene, but it is still a difficult task to be accomplished by artificial vision systems. In this paper a visual selection mechanism based on the integrate and fire neural network is proposed. The model not only can discriminate objects in a given visual scene, but also can deliver focus of attention to the salient object. Moreover, it processes a combination of relevant features of an input scene, such as intensity, color, orientation, and the contrast of them. In comparison to other visual selection approaches, this model presents several interesting features. It is able to capture attention of objects in complex forms, including those linearly nonseparable. Moreover, computer simulations show that the model produces results similar to those observed in natural vision systems.

An analysis of quit and dismissal determinants between 1988 and 1999 using the bivariate probit model

Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations. The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE) and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE) provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts, and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as the unemployment rate rises.

Morphological prediction of worker size discrimination and relative abundance of sympartic species of Pseudacteon (Dipt., Phoridae) parasitoids of the fire ant, Solenopsis saevissima (Hym., Formicidae) in Brazil

Patterns of attack for collected species of phorids are predicted using multivariate morphometrics of female Pseudacteon species and worker size distributions of parasitized fire ants, Solenopsis saevissima. The model assumes that there is a direct correlation between phorid size and the size range of the worker ant attacked, and presumes that worker sizes are a resource that is divided by sympatric phorid species to minimize joint parasitism. These results suggest that the community of sympatric Pseudacteon species on only one host species coexists by restricting the size of workers attacked, and secondarily by differing diel patterns of ovipositional activity. When we compared relative abundance of species of Pseudacteon with the size distribution of foragers of S. saevissima, our observed distribution did not differ significantly from our predicted relative abundance of females of Pseudacteon. The activity of Pseudacteon may be a factor determining forager size distributions.

Climatic oscillations shape the phylogeographical structure of Atlantic Forest fire-eye antbirds (Aves: Thamnophilidae)

In the present study, mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequence data were used to examine the genetic structure of fire-eye antbirds (genus Pyriglena) along the Atlantic Forest and the predictions derived from the river hypothesis and from a Last Glacial Maximum Pleistocene refuge paleomodel were compared to explain the patterns of genetic variation observed in these populations. A total of 266 individuals from 45 populations were sampled over a latitudinal transect and a number of phylogeographical and population genetics analytical approaches were employed to address these questions. The pattern of mtDNA variation observed in fire-eye antbirds provides little support for the view that populations were isolated by the modern course of major Atlantic Forest rivers. Instead, the data provide stronger support for the predictions of the refuge model. These results add to the mounting evidence that climatic oscillations appear to have played a substantial role in shaping the phylogeographical structure and possibly the diversification of many taxa in this region. However, the results also illustrate the potential for more complex climatic history and historical changes in the geographical distribution of Atlantic Forest than envisioned by the refuge model. (c) 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105, 900824.

STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS: THE TRANSITION FROM NONEQUILIBRIUM TO EQUILIBRIUM IN INTEGRATE-AND-FIRE DYNAMICS

The transient and equilibrium properties of dynamics unfolding in complex systems can depend critically on specific topological features of the underlying interconnections. In this work, we investigate such a relationship with respect to the integrate-and-fire dynamics emanating from a source node and an extended network model that allows control of the small-world feature as well as the length of the long-range connections. A systematic approach to investigate the local and global correlations between structural and dynamical features of the networks was adopted that involved extensive simulations (one and a half million cases) so as to obtain two-dimensional correlation maps. Smooth, but diverse surfaces of correlation values were obtained in all cases. Regarding the global cases, it has been verified that the onset avalanche time (but not its intensity) can be accurately predicted from the structural features within specific regions of the map (i.e. networks with specific structural properties). The analysis at local level revealed that the dynamical features before the avalanches can also be accurately predicted from structural features. This is not possible for the dynamical features after the avalanches take place. This is so because the overall topology of the network predominates over the local topology around the source at the stationary state.

Fluctuation properties in random walks on networks and simple integrate and fire models

In questa tesi si è studiato l’insorgere di eventi critici in un semplice modello neurale del tipo Integrate and Fire, basato su processi dinamici stocastici markoviani definiti su una rete. Il segnale neurale elettrico è stato modellato da un flusso di particelle. Si è concentrata l’attenzione sulla fase transiente del sistema, cercando di identificare fenomeni simili alla sincronizzazione neurale, la quale può essere considerata un evento critico. Sono state studiate reti particolarmente semplici, trovando che il modello proposto ha la capacità di produrre effetti "a cascata" nell’attività neurale, dovuti a Self Organized Criticality (auto organizzazione del sistema in stati instabili); questi effetti non vengono invece osservati in Random Walks sulle stesse reti. Si è visto che un piccolo stimolo random è capace di generare nell’attività della rete delle fluttuazioni notevoli, in particolar modo se il sistema si trova in una fase al limite dell’equilibrio. I picchi di attività così rilevati sono stati interpretati come valanghe di segnale neurale, fenomeno riconducibile alla sincronizzazione.

THE RESONATE-AND-FIRE NEURON: TIME DEPENDENT AND FREQUENCY SELECTIVE NEURONS IN NEURAL NETWORKS

The means through which the nervous system perceives its environment is one of the most fascinating questions in contemporary science. Our endeavors to comprehend the principles of neural science provide an instance of how biological processes may inspire novel methods in mathematical modeling and engineering. The application ofmathematical models towards understanding neural signals and systems represents a vibrant field of research that has spanned over half a century. During this period, multiple approaches to neuronal modeling have been adopted, and each approach is adept at elucidating a specific aspect of nervous system function. Thus while bio-physical models have strived to comprehend the dynamics of actual physical processes occurring within a nerve cell, the phenomenological approach has conceived models that relate the ionic properties of nerve cells to transitions in neural activity. Further-more, the field of neural networks has endeavored to explore how distributed parallel processing systems may become capable of storing memory. Through this project, we strive to explore how some of the insights gained from biophysical neuronal modeling may be incorporated within the field of neural net-works. We specifically study the capabilities of a simple neural model, the Resonate-and-Fire (RAF) neuron, whose derivation is inspired by biophysical neural modeling. While reflecting further biological plausibility, the RAF neuron is also analytically tractable, and thus may be implemented within neural networks. In the following thesis, we provide a brief overview of the different approaches that have been adopted towards comprehending the properties of nerve cells, along with the framework under which our specific neuron model relates to the field of neuronal modeling. Subsequently, we explore some of the time-dependent neurocomputational capabilities of the RAF neuron, and we utilize the model to classify logic gates, and solve the classic XOR problem. Finally we explore how the resonate-and-fire neuron may be implemented within neural networks, and how such a network could be adapted through the temporal backpropagation algorithm.

Random Sampling with Interspike-Intervals of the Exponential Integrate and Fire Neuron: A Computational Interpretation of UP-States

Oscillations between high and low values of the membrane potential (UP and DOWN states respectively) are an ubiquitous feature of cortical neurons during slow wave sleep and anesthesia. Nevertheless, a surprisingly small number of quantitative studies have been conducted only that deal with this phenomenon’s implications for computation. Here we present a novel theory that explains on a detailed mathematical level the computational benefits of UP states. The theory is based on random sampling by means of interspike intervals (ISIs) of the exponential integrate and fire (EIF) model neuron, such that each spike is considered a sample, whose analog value corresponds to the spike’s preceding ISI. As we show, the EIF’s exponential sodium current, that kicks in when balancing a noisy membrane potential around values close to the firing threshold, leads to a particularly simple, approximative relationship between the neuron’s ISI distribution and input current. Approximation quality depends on the frequency spectrum of the current and is improved upon increasing the voltage baseline towards threshold. Thus, the conceptually simpler leaky integrate and fire neuron that is missing such an additional current boost performs consistently worse than the EIF and does not improve when voltage baseline is increased. For the EIF in contrast, the presented mechanism is particularly effective in the high-conductance regime, which is a hallmark feature of UP-states. Our theoretical results are confirmed by accompanying simulations, which were conducted for input currents of varying spectral composition. Moreover, we provide analytical estimations of the range of ISI distributions the EIF neuron can sample from at a given approximation level. Such samples may be considered by any algorithmic procedure that is based on random sampling, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo or message-passing methods. Finally, we explain how spike-based random sampling relates to existing computational theories about UP states during slow wave sleep and present possible extensions of the model in the context of spike-frequency adaptation.

Evaluating atmospheric methane inversion model results for Pallas, northern Finland

A state-of-the-art inverse model, CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS), was used to optimize estimates of methane (CH4) surface fluxes using atmospheric observations of CH4 as a constraint. The model consists of the latest version of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry-transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter based data assimilation system. The model was constrained by atmospheric methane surface concentrations, obtained from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG). Prior methane emissions were specified for five sources: biosphere, anthropogenic, fire, termites and ocean, of which bio-sphere and anthropogenic emissions were optimized. Atmospheric CH 4 mole fractions for 2007 from northern Finland calculated from prior and optimized emissions were compared with observations. It was found that the root mean squared errors of the posterior esti - mates were more than halved. Furthermore, inclusion of NOAA observations of CH 4 from weekly discrete air samples collected at Pallas improved agreement between posterior CH 4 mole fraction estimates and continuous observations, and resulted in reducing optimized biosphere emissions and their uncertainties in northern Finland.

Effects of climate, fire, and humans on forest dynamics: forest simulations compared to the palaeological record

In order to find out which factors influenced the forest dynamics in northern Italy during the Holocene, a palaeoecological approach involving pollen analysis was combined with ecosystem modelling. The dynamic and distribution based forest model DisCForm was run with different input scenarios for climate, species immigration, fire, and human impact and the similarity of the simulations with the original pollen record was assessed. From the comparisons of the model output and the pollen core, it appears that immigration was most important in the first part of the Holocene, and that fire and human activity had a major influence in the second half. Species not well represented in the simulation outputs are species with a higher abundance in the past than today (Corylus), with their habitat in riparian forests (Alnus) or with a strong response to human impact (Castanea).

Paleofires and models illuminate future fire scenarios

Advances in Interdisciplinary Paleofire Research: Data and Model Comparisons for the Past Millennium; Harvard Forest, Petersham, Massachusetts, 27 September to 2 October 2015

Use of universal precautions in the workplace: A comparison of two fire /EMS services

The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided the theoretical framework for examining Universal Precautions (UP) compliance factors by Firefighter, EMTs and Paramedics (prehospital care providers). A convenient sample of prehospital care providers (n = 4000) from two cities (Houston and Washington DC), were surveyed to explore the factors related to their decision to comply with Universal Precautions. Eight hundred and sixty-five useable questionnaires were analyzed. The responders were primarily male (95.7%) eight hundred and twenty-eight and thirty-seven were female, prehospital based (100%), EMTs (60.0%) and paramedics (12.8%) who had a mean 13 years of prehospital care experience. ^ Linear regression was used to evaluate the four hypotheses. The first hypothesis evaluating perceived susceptibility and seriousness with reported UP use was statistically significant (p = < .05). Perceived susceptibility, when considered independently, did not make a significant contribution (t = −4.2852; p = 0.0000) to the stated use of Universal precautions. The hypothesis is not supported as stated. The data indicates the opposite effect. Supported is the premise that as perceived susceptibility and perceived seriousness increase the use of Universal Precautions decreases. Hypothesis two tested perceived benefits with internal and external barriers. Both perceived benefits and internal and external barriers as well as the overall regression were significant (F = 112.6, p = 0.0000). The contribution of internal and external barriers was statistically significant (t = 0.0175; p = 0.0000) and (t = 0.0128; p = 0.0000). Hypothesis three which tested modifying factors, cues to action, select demographic variables, and the main effects of the HBM with self reported UP compliance overall was significant. The variables gender, birth, education, job type, EMS certification, years of service, years of experience providing patient care, Universal Precautions training hours, type of apparatus assigned to and the number of EMS related incidents responded to in a month were found to have a significant contribution to the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ The additive effects were tested by use of a stepwise regression that assessed the contribution of each of the significant variables. Three variables in the equation were statistically significant. Internal barriers (t = −8.5507; p = 0.0000), external barriers (t = −6.2862; p = 0.000) and job type 2 & 3. Job type two (t = −2.8464; p = 0.0045 is titled Engineer/Operator. Job type three (t = −2.5730; p = 0.0103) is titled captain. The overall regression was significant (F = 24.06; p = 0.000). The Hypothesis is supported in the certain demographic variables do influence the stated use of Universal precautions and that as internal and external barriers are decreased, there is an increase in the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ In summary, this study demonstrated that internal and external barriers have a significant impact on the stated use of Universal Precautions. Internal barriers are those factors within the individual that require an internal change (i.e., forgetfulness, freedom, perception of the urgency of the patient's needs etc.) and external barriers are things in the environment that can be altered (i.e., equipment design, availability of equipment, ease of use). These two model variables explained 23%–30% of the variance. ^