Filtering via approximate Bayesian computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique to facilitate Bayesian inference from complex models. In this article we present an ABC approximation designed to perform biased filtering for a Hidden Markov Model when the likelihood function is intractable. We use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to both fit and sample from our ABC approximation of the target probability density. This approach is shown to, empirically, be more accurate w.r.t.~the original filter than competing methods. The theoretical bias of our method is investigated; it is shown that the bias goes to zero at the expense of increased computational effort. Our approach is illustrated on a constrained sequential lasso for portfolio allocation to 15 constituents of the FTSE 100 share index.

Kalman Filtering in R

Support in R for state space estimation via Kalman filtering was limited to one package, until fairly recently. In the last five years, the situation has changed with no less than four additional packages offering general implementations of the Kalman filter, including in some cases smoothing, simulation smoothing and other functionality. This paper reviews some of the offerings in R to help the prospective user to make an informed choice.