Leverage and beliefs: Personal experience and risk taking in margin lending

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Thispaper uses unique micro-data on collateralized lending contracts during a period of financialdistress to address this question. An investor syndicate speculating in English stocks wentbankrupt in 1772. Using hand-collected information from Dutch notarial archives, we examinechanges in lenders' behavior following exposure to potential (but not actual) losses. Before thedistress episode, financiers that lent to the ill-fated syndicate were indistinguishable from therest. Afterwards, they behaved differently: they lent with much higher haircuts. Only lendersexposed to the failed syndicate altered their behavior. The differential change is remarkable sincethe distress was public knowledge, and because none of the lenders suffered actual losses ? allfinanciers were repaid in full. Interest rates were also unaffected; the market balanced solelythrough changes in collateral requirements. Our findings are consistent with a heterogeneousbeliefs-interpretation of leverage. They also suggest that individual experience can modify thelevel of leverage in a market quickly.

"Vrai" ou "faux" vertige: une vraie ou fausse question [True or false vertigo: a true or false question?]

Some practitioners ask on which criteria vertigo can be considered as "true" or "false". The goal of this paper is to explain why such a concept is misleading. Vertigo and imbalance are subjective symptoms caused by many possible factors, somatic or psychologic, which may cause, in turn, psychological distress in some patients. In all cases, the complain is "true", even in case of psychological disorder. To evaluate patients suffering from vertigo, knowledge in anatomy and physiology are necessary as well as knowledge of the interface between neuro-totologic and psychiatric conditions.

Exploratory Factor Analysis of the contents and styles of irrational thoughts assessed by "The Attitudes and Beliefs Inventory"

The factor structure of a back translated Spanish version (Lega, Caballo and Ellis, 2002) of the Attitudes and Beliefs Inventory (ABI) (Burgess, 1990) is analyzed in a sample of 250 university students.The Spanish version of the ABI is a 48-items self-report inventory using a 5-point Likert scale that assesses rational and irrational attitudes and beliefs. 24-items cover two dimensions of irrationality: a) areas of content (3 subscales), and b) styles of thinking (4 subscales).An Exploratory Factor Analysis (Parallel Analysis with Unweighted Least Squares method and Promin rotation) was performed with the FACTOR 9.20 software (Lorenzo-Seva and Ferrando, 2013).The results reproduced the main four styles of irrational thinking in relation with the three specific contents of irrational beliefs. However, two factors showed a complex configuration with important cross-loadings of different items in content and style. More analyses are needed to review the specific content and style of such items.

Exploratory Factor Analysis of the contents and styles of irrational thoughts assessed by "The Attitudes and Beliefs Inventory"

The factor structure of a back translated Spanish version (Lega, Caballo and Ellis, 2002) of the Attitudes and Beliefs Inventory (ABI) (Burgess, 1990) is analyzed in a sample of 250 university students.The Spanish version of the ABI is a 48-items self-report inventory using a 5-point Likert scale that assesses rational and irrational attitudes and beliefs. 24-items cover two dimensions of irrationality: a) areas of content (3 subscales), and b) styles of thinking (4 subscales).An Exploratory Factor Analysis (Parallel Analysis with Unweighted Least Squares method and Promin rotation) was performed with the FACTOR 9.20 software (Lorenzo-Seva and Ferrando, 2013).The results reproduced the main four styles of irrational thinking in relation with the three specific contents of irrational beliefs. However, two factors showed a complex configuration with important cross-loadings of different items in content and style. More analyses are needed to review the specific content and style of such items.

Attitudes and beliefs of palliative care physicians regarding communication with terminally ill cancer patients.

The subject of communication between palliative care physicians and their patients regarding their diagnosis and prognosis has not been extensively researched. The purpose of this survey was to compare the attitudes and beliefs of palliative care specialists regarding communication with the terminally ill in Europe, South America, and Canada. A sample of palliative care physicians from South America (Argentina and Brazil), French-speaking Europe, and Canada were identified, and posted a questionnaire. Physicians who stated that they practised palliative care at least 30% of their time were considered evaluable as palliative care specialists. Of a total of 272 questionnaires, 228 were returned (84%); and 182/228 (81%) respondents were considered to be palliative care specialists. Palliative care physicians in all three regions believed that cancer patients should be informed of their diagnosis and the terminal nature of their illness. Physicians reported that at least 60% of their patients knew their diagnosis and the terminal stage of their illness in 52% and 24% of cases in South America, and 69% and 38% of cases in Europe, respectively. All physicians agreed that 'do not resuscitate' orders should be present, and should be discussed with the patient in all cases. While 93% of Canadian physicians stated that at least 60% of their patients wanted to know about the terminal stage of their illness, only 18% of South American, and 26% of European physicians said this (P < 0.001). Similar results were found when the physicians were asked the percentage of families who want patients to know the terminal stage of their illness. However, almost all of the physicians agreed that if they had terminal cancer they would like to know. There was a significant association between patient based decision-making and female sex (P = 0.007), older age (P = 0.04), and physicians from Canada and South America (P < 0.001). Finally, in their daily decision making, South American physicians were significantly more likely to support beneficence and justice as compared with autonomy. Canadian physicians were more likely to support autonomy as compared with beneficence. In summary, our findings suggest that there are major regional differences in the attitudes and beliefs of physicians regarding communication at the end of life. More research is badly needed on the attitudes and beliefs of patients, families, and health care professionals in different regions of the world.

Toward a novel forensic intelligence model: systematic profiling of false identity documents

False identity documents represent a serious threat through their production and use in organized crime and by terrorist organizations. The present-day fight against this criminal problem and threats to national security does not appropriately address the organized nature of this criminal activity, treating each fraudulent document on its own during investigation and the judicial process, which causes linkage blindness and restrains the analysis capacity. Given the drawbacks of this case-by-case approach, this article proposes an original model in which false identity documents are used to inform a systematic forensic intelligence process. The process aims to detect links, patterns, and tendencies among false identity documents in order to support strategic and tactical decision making, thus sustaining a proactive intelligence-led approach to fighting identity document fraud and the associated organized criminality. This article formalizes both the model and the process, using practical applications to illustrate its powerful capabilities. This model has a general application and can be transposed to other fields of forensic science facing similar difficulties.

Forensic processing of false identity and travel documents to produce intelligence: a novel approach to assist in fighting organized crime

The production and use of false identity and travel documents in organized crime represent a serious and evolving threat. However, a case-by-case perspective, thus suffering from linkage blindness and a limited analysis capacity, essentially drives the present-day fight against this criminal problem. To assist in overcoming these limitations, a process model was developed using a forensic perspective. It guides the systematic analysis and management of seized false documents to generate forensic intelligence that supports strategic and tactical decision-making in an intelligence-led policing approach. The model is articulated on a three-level architecture that aims to assist in detecting and following-up on general trends, production methods and links between cases or series. Using analyses of a large dataset of counterfeit and forged identity and travel documents, it is possible to illustrate the model, its three levels and their contribution. Examples will point out how the proposed approach assists in detecting emerging trends, in evaluating the black market's degree of structure, in uncovering criminal networks, in monitoring the quality of false documents, and in identifying their weaknesses to orient the conception of more secured travel and identity documents. The process model proposed is thought to have a general application in forensic science and can readily be transposed to other fields of study.

Forensic intelligence framework-Part I: induction of a transversal model by comparing illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

Forensic intelligence is a distinct dimension of forensic science. Forensic intelligence processes have mostly been developed to address either a specific type of trace or a specific problem. Even though these empirical developments have led to successes, they are trace-specific in nature and contribute to the generation of silos which hamper the establishment of a more general and transversal model. Forensic intelligence has shown some important perspectives but more general developments are required to address persistent challenges. This will ensure the progress of the discipline as well as its widespread implementation in the future. This paper demonstrates that the description of forensic intelligence processes, their architectures, and the methods for building them can, at a certain level, be abstracted from the type of traces considered. A comparative analysis is made between two forensic intelligence approaches developed independently in Australia and in Europe regarding the monitoring of apparently very different kind of problems: illicit drugs and false identity documents. An inductive effort is pursued to identify similarities and to outline a general model. Besides breaking barriers between apparently separate fields of study in forensic science and intelligence, this transversal model would assist in defining forensic intelligence, its role and place in policing, and in identifying its contributions and limitations. The model will facilitate the paradigm shift from the current case-by-case reactive attitude towards a proactive approach by serving as a guideline for the use of forensic case data in an intelligence-led perspective. A follow-up article will specifically address issues related to comparison processes, decision points and organisational issues regarding forensic intelligence (part II).

Teachers' attitudes and beliefs about homosexuality

Schools play a key role in transmitting attitudes towards sexual diversity. Many studies stress the importance of teachers" and other professionals" attitudes towards gay men and/or lesbian women. This study evaluates attitudes and prejudices toward homosexuality in a sample of 254 elementary and high school teachers in Barcelona and its surrounding area. The results obtained using a scale of overt and subtle prejudice and a scale of perceived discrepancy of values indicate that discrepancy between likely behavior and personal values was significantly greater in women, those who hold religious beliefs, churchgoers and people without any gay or lesbian acquaintances. Approximately 88% of the teachers showed no type of prejudiced attitudes towards gay men and lesbian women. The experience of proximity to gay men and/or lesbian women reduces not only the discrepancy between personal values and likely behavior but also the presence of homophobic prejudice. It would be advisable to expand specific teacher training in the subject of sexual diversity in order to reduce prejudicial attitudes, thus fostering non-stereotyped knowledge of homosexuality

What role do just-world beliefs play in harmful responses to injustice?

Research suggests that employees sometimes retaliate and sometimes refrain from retaliation for the same reason, namely because they care about justice. In two studies, we seek to solve this apparent inconsistency. Drawing on just world theory, we argue that retaliatory, harmful behavioral strategies to deal with injustice are associated to individual differences in personal belief in a just world (personal BJW). In contrast, individual differences in believing that the world is just in general (general BJW) are linked to the inhibition of these reactions. As a consequence, the relation between injustice and harmful behaviors is stronger for people with a high personal BJW than for those with a low one. General BJW is associated with their inhibition such that the relation between injustice and harmful reactions is weaker for people with a high general BJW than for those with a low one. We found evidence for our hypotheses in a cross-sectional field study and an experiment. We discuss our findings in light of their implications for just-world theory and suggest avenues for future research integrating organizational justice literature.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

False normal Lung Clearance Index in infants with cystic fibrosis due to software algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Lung clearance index (LCI), a marker of ventilation inhomogeneity, is elevated early in children with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, in infants with CF, LCI values are found to be normal, although structural lung abnormalities are often detectable. We hypothesized that this discrepancy is due to inadequate algorithms of the available software package. AIM: Our aim was to challenge the validity of these software algorithms. METHODS: We compared multiple breath washout (MBW) results of current software algorithms (automatic modus) to refined algorithms (manual modus) in 17 asymptomatic infants with CF, and 24 matched healthy term-born infants. The main difference between these two analysis methods lies in the calculation of the molar mass differences that the system uses to define the completion of the measurement. RESULTS: In infants with CF the refined manual modus revealed clearly elevated LCI above 9 in 8 out of 35 measurements (23%), all showing LCI values below 8.3 using the automatic modus (paired t-test comparing the means, P < 0.001). Healthy infants showed normal LCI values using both analysis methods (n = 47, paired t-test, P = 0.79). The most relevant reason for false normal LCI values in infants with CF using the automatic modus was the incorrect recognition of the end-of-test too early during the washout. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of the manual modus for the analysis of MBW outcomes in infants in order to obtain more accurate results. This will allow appropriate use of infant lung function results for clinical and scientific purposes. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2015; 50:970-977. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.