Reduction in left ventricular hypertrophy in hypertensive patients treated with enalapril, losartan or the combination of enalapril and losartan

OBJECTIVE: To compare the regression of left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with moderate hypertension treated with enalapril, losartan or a combination of the two drugs at lower doses. METHODS: Patients of both sexes with moderate hypertension confirmed by ambulatory monitoring of arte-rial blood pressure and with left ventricular hypertrophy on echocardiogram were assigned to three groups: enalapril (35 mg/day, n=15), losartan (175 mg/day, n=15) and enalapril+losartan (15 mg+100 mg/day, n=16). The patients received the drugs for 10 months. RESULTS: The three therapeutic regimens were equally effective in reducing blood pressure and left ventricular mass index (LVMI, g/m²): 141±3.9 to 123±3.6 in the enalapril group (p<0.05), from 147±3.8 to 133±2.8 in the losartan group (p<0.05), and from 146±3.0 to 116±4.0 in the enalapril+losartan group (p<0.05). However, the percent reduction of LVMI was significantly greater (p<0.01) in the enalapril+losartan group (20.5±5.0%) than in enalapril (12.4±3.2%) and the losartan (9.1±2.1%) groups. Normalization of LVMI was obtained in 10 out of the 16 patients who received enalapril+ losartan, in 6 out of the 15 patients who received only enalapril and in 4 out of the 15 patients treated with losartan. CONCLUSION: The combination of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and an angiotensin II receptor antagonist (AT1 receptor antagonist) in patients produced an additional effect on the reduction of left ventricular hypertrophy. This finding may depend on a more complete inhibition of the cardiac renin-angiotensin.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Combination Therapy for the Cardiovascular Effects of Perinatal Lead Exposure in Young and Adult Rats

Background: Combination therapy can play a significant role in the amelioration of several toxic effects of lead (Pb) and recovery from associated cardiovascular changes. Objective: To investigate the effects of combination therapy on the cardiovascular effects of perinatal lead exposure in young and adult rats Methods: Female Wistar rats received drinking water with or without 500 ppm of Pb during pregnancy and lactation. Twenty-two- and 70-day-old rat offspring who were or were not exposed to Pb in the perinatal period received meso-dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA), L-arginine, or enalapril and a combination of these compounds for 30 additional days. Noradrenaline response curves were plotted for intact and denuded aortas from 23-, 52-, 70-, and 100-day-old rats stratified by perinatal Pb exposure (exposed/unexposed) and treatment received (treated/untreated). Results: Systolic blood pressure was evaluated and shown to be higher in the 23-, 52-, 70-, and 100-day age groups with Pb exposure than in the corresponding control age groups: 117.8 ± 3.9*, 135.2 ± 1.3*, 139.6 ± 1.6*, and 131.7 ± 2.8*, respectively and 107.1 ± 1.8, 118.8 ± 2.1, 126.1 ± 1.1, and 120.5 ± 2.2, respectively (p < 0.05). Increased reactivity to noradrenaline was observed in intact, but not denuded, aortas from 52-, 70-, and 100-day-old exposed rats, and the maximum responses (g of tension) in the respective Pb-exposed and control age groups were as follows: 3.43 ± 0.16*, 4.32 ± 0.18*, and 4.21 ± 0.23*, respectively and 2.38 ± 0.33, 3.37 ± 0.13, and 3.22 ± 0.21, respectively (p < 0.05). Conclusions: All treatments reversed the changes in vascular reactivity to noradrenaline in rats perinatally exposed to Pb. The combination therapy resulted in an earlier restoration of blood pressure in Pb-exposed rats compared with the monotherapies, except for enalapril therapy in young rats. These findings represent a new approach to the development of therapeutic protocols for the treatment of Pb-induced hypertension.

Effect of single nucleotide polymorphisms in cytochrome P450 isoenzyme and N-acetyltransferase 2 genes on the metabolism of artemisinin-based combination therapies in malaria patients from Cambodia and Tanzania.

The pharmacogenetics of antimalarial agents are poorly known, although the application of pharmacogenetics might be critical in optimizing treatment. This population pharmacokinetic-pharmacogenetic study aimed at assessing the effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in cytochrome P450 isoenzyme genes (CYP, namely, CYP2A6, CYP2B6, CYP2C8, CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP2D6, CYP3A4, and CYP3A5) and the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene (NAT2) on the pharmacokinetics of artemisinin-based combination therapies in 150 Tanzanian patients treated with artemether-lumefantrine, 64 Cambodian patients treated with artesunate-mefloquine, and 61 Cambodian patients treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. The frequency of SNPs varied with the enzyme and the population. Higher frequencies of mutant alleles were found in Cambodians than Tanzanians for CYP2C9*3, CYP2D6*10 (100C → T), CYP3A5*3, NAT2*6, and NAT2*7. In contrast, higher frequencies of mutant alleles were found in Tanzanians for CYP2D6*17 (1023C → T and 2850C → T), CYP3A4*1B, NAT2*5, and NAT2*14. For 8 SNPs, no significant differences in frequencies were observed. In the genetic-based population pharmacokinetic analyses, none of the SNPs improved model fit. This suggests that pharmacogenetic data need not be included in appropriate first-line treatments with the current artemisinin derivatives and quinolines for uncomplicated malaria in specific populations. However, it cannot be ruled out that our results represent isolated findings, and therefore more studies in different populations, ideally with the same artemisinin-based combination therapies, are needed to evaluate the influence of pharmacogenetic factors on the clearance of antimalarials.

Safety and immunogenicity of the M72/AS01 candidate tuberculosis vaccine in HIV-infected adults on combination antiretroviral therapy: a phase I/II, randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: Tuberculosis (TB) is highly prevalent among HIV-infected people, including those receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), necessitating a well tolerated and efficacious TB vaccine for these populations. We evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of the candidate TB vaccine M72/AS01 in adults with well controlled HIV infection on cART. DESIGN: A randomized, observer-blind, controlled trial (NCT00707967). METHODS: HIV-infected adults on cART in Switzerland were randomized 3 : 1 : 1 to receive two doses, 1 month apart, of M72/AS01, AS01 or 0.9% physiological saline (N = 22, N = 8 and N = 7, respectively) and were followed up to 6 months postdose 2 (D210). Individuals with CD4⁺ cell counts below 200 cells/μl were excluded. Adverse events (AEs) including HIV-specific and laboratory safety parameters were recorded. Cell-mediated (ICS) and humoral (ELISA) responses were evaluated before vaccination, 1 month after each dose (D30, D60) and D210. RESULTS: Thirty-seven individuals [interquartile range (IQR) CD4⁺ cell counts at screening: 438-872 cells/μl; undetectable HIV-1 viremia] were enrolled; 73% of individuals reported previous BCG vaccination, 97.3% tested negative for the QuantiFERON-TB assay. For M72/AS01 recipients, no vaccine-related serious AEs or cART-regimen adjustments were recorded, and there were no clinically relevant effects on laboratory safety parameters, HIV-1 viral loads or CD4⁺ cell counts. M72/AS01 was immunogenic, inducing persistent and polyfunctional M72-specific CD4⁺ T-cell responses [medians 0.70% (IQR 0.37-1.07) at D60] and 0.42% (0.24-0.61) at D210, predominantly CD40L⁺IL-2⁺TNF-α⁺, CD40L⁺IL-2⁺ and CD40L⁺IL-2⁺TNF-α⁺IFN-γ⁺]. All M72/AS01 vaccines were seropositive for anti-M72 IgG after second vaccination until study end. CONCLUSION: M72/AS01 was clinically well tolerated and immunogenic in this population, supporting further clinical evaluation in HIV-infected individuals in TB-endemic settings.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Felodipine-metoprolol combination tablet: a valuable option to initiate antihypertensive therapy?

The aim of the present study was to assess the efficacy and tolerability of a calcium antagonist/beta-blocker fixed combination tablet used as first-line antihypertesnive therapy in comparison with an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor and placebo. Patients with uncomplicated essential hypertension (diastolic blood pressure between 95 and 110 mm Hg at the end of a 4-week run-in period) were randomly allocated to a double-blind, 12-week treatment with either a combination tablet of felodipine and metoprolol (Logimax), 5/50 mg daily (n = 321), enalapril, 10 mg daily (n = 321), or placebo (n = 304), with the possibility of doubling the dose after 4 or 8 weeks of treatment if needed (diastolic blood pressure remaining >90 mm Hg). The combined felodipine-metoprolol treatment controlled blood pressure (diastolic < or =90 mm Hg 24 h after dose) in 72% of patients after 12 weeks, as compared with 49% for enalapril and 30% for placebo. A dose adjustment was required in 38% of patients receiving the combination, in 63% of patients allocated to placebo, and 61% of enalapril-treated patients. The overall incidence of adverse events was 54.5% during felodipine-metoprolol treatment; the corresponding values for enalapril and placebo were 51.7% and 47.4%, respectively. Withdrawal of treatment due to adverse events occurred in 18 patients treated with the combination, in 10 patients on enalapril, and 12 patients on placebo. No significant change in patients' well-being was observed in either of the three study groups. These results show that a fixed combination tablet of felodipine and metoprolol allows to normalize blood pressure in a substantially larger fraction of patients than enalapril given alone. This improved efficacy is obtained without impairing the tolerability. The fixed-dose combination of felodipine and metoprolol, therefore, may become a valuable option to initiate antihypertensive treatment.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth

Forecasts of differences in growth between countries serve an important role in the justification of governments’ fiscal policy stances, but are not tested for their accuracy as part of the current range of forecast evaluation methods. This paper examines forecasted and outturn growth differentials between countries to identify if there is usefulness in forecasts of “relative” growth. Using OECD forecasts and outturn values for GDP growth for (combinations of) the G7 countries between 1984 and 2010, the paper finds that the OECD’s success in predicting the relative growth of G7 countries during this period is good. For each two-country combination results indicate that relative growth forecasts are less useful for countries which have smaller outturn growth differentials.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.