Changes in cigarette smoking among adults in 35 populations in the mid-1980s

Objective-To examine changes in the prevalence of cigarette smoking in 35 study populations of the World Health Organisation's MONICA Project. Design-Data from two independent, community-based surveys conducted, on average, five years apart. Setting-Geographically defined populations in 21 countries mainly in eastern and western Europe. Subjects-Randomly selected men and women aged 25-64 years. Numbers of participants in each study population ranged from 586 to 2817 in each survey. Main outcome measures-Changes in proportions of current smokers, ex-smokers, and never-smokers by age and sex using data collected by standardised methods. Results-Among men, smoking prevalence decreased in most populations, by three to four percentage points over five years. In Beijing, however, it increased in all age groups-overall by 11 percentage points. Among women there were increases in smoking in about half the populations. The increases were mainly in the age group 35-54 years and often in those populations where smoking prevalence among women has been relatively low. Conclusions-Smoking initiation by middle-aged women in parts of southern and eastern Europe and among men of all ages in Beijing is a matter of concern. The various public health measures that have helped to reduce smoking among men in developed countries should be vigorously extended to these other groups now at growing risk of smoking-related disease.

Finite element analysis of flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems

We use theoretical and numerical methods to investigate the general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems respectively. Analytical solutions have been rigorously derived for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function and excess pore-fluid pressure near a circular lens in a hydrodynamic system. These analytical solutions provide not only a better understanding of the physics behind the problem, but also a valuable benchmark solution for validating any numerical method. Since a geological lens is surrounded by a medium of large extent in nature and the finite element method is efficient at modelling only media of finite size, the determination of the size of the computational domain of a finite element model, which is often overlooked by numerical analysts, is very important in order to ensure both the efficiency of the method and the accuracy of the numerical solution obtained. To highlight this issue, we use the derived analytical solutions to deduce a rigorous mathematical formula for designing the computational domain size of a finite element model. The proposed mathematical formula has indicated that, no matter how fine the mesh or how high the order of elements, the desired accuracy of a finite element solution for pore-fluid flow near a geological lens cannot be achieved unless the size of the finite element model is determined appropriately. Once the finite element computational model has been appropriately designed and validated in a hydrodynamic system, it is used to examine general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrothermal systems. Some interesting conclusions on the behaviour of geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems have been reached through the analytical and numerical analyses carried out in this paper.

Finite element modelling of reactive mass transport problems in fluid-saturated porous media

We use the finite element method to solve reactive mass transport problems in fluid-saturated porous media. In particular, we discuss the mathematical expression of the chemical reaction terms involved in the mass transport equations for an isothermal, non-equilibrium chemical reaction. It has turned out that the Arrhenius law in chemistry is a good mathematical expression for such non-equilibrium chemical reactions especially from the computational point of view. Using the finite element method and the Arrhenius law, we investigate the distributions of PH (i.e. the concentration of H+) and the relevant reactive species in a groundwater system. Although the main focus of this study is on the contaminant transport problems in groundwater systems, the related numerical techniques and principles are equally applicable to the orebody formation problems in the geosciences. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Formal derivation of finite state machines for class testing

Previous work on generating state machines for the purpose of class testing has not been formally based. There has also been work on deriving state machines from formal specifications for testing non-object-oriented software. We build on this work by presenting a method for deriving a state machine for testing purposes from a formal specification of the class under test. We also show how the resulting state machine can be used as the basis for a test suite developed and executed using an existing framework for class testing. To derive the state machine, we identify the states and possible interactions of the operations of the class under test. The Test Template Framework is used to formally derive the states from the Object-Z specification of the class under test. The transitions of the finite state machine are calculated from the derived states and the class's operations. The formally derived finite state machine is transformed to a ClassBench testgraph, which is used as input to the ClassBench framework to test a C++ implementation of the class. The method is illustrated using a simple bounded queue example.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Finite element modelling of dissipative structures for nonequilibrium chemical reactions in fluid-saturated porous media

We use the finite element method to model and predict the dissipative structures of chemical species for a nonequilibrium chemical reaction system in a fluid-saturated porous medium. In particular, we explore the conditions under which dissipative structures of the species may exist in the Brusselator type of nonequilibrium chemical reaction. Since this is the first time the finite element method and related strategies have been used to study the chemical instability problems in a fluid-saturated porous medium, it is essential to validate the method and strategies before they are put into application. For this purpose, we have rigorously derived the analytical solutions for dissipative structures of chemical species in a benchmark problem, which geometrically is a square. Comparison of the numerical solutions with the analytical ones demonstrates that the proposed numerical method and strategy are robust enough to solve chemical instability problems in a fluid-saturated porous medium. Finally, the related numerical results from two application examples indicate that both the regime and the magnitude of pore-fluid flow have significant effects on the nature of the dissipative structures that developed for a nonequilibrium chemical reaction system in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The motivation for this study is that self-organization under conditions of pore-fluid flow in a porous medium is a potential mechanism of the orebody formation and mineralization in the upper crust of the Earth. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Finite element analysis of heat transfer and mineralization in layered hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow

We use the finite element method to solve the coupled problem between convective pore-fluid flow, heat transfer and mineralization in layered hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow. In particular, we present the improved rock alteration index (IRAI) concept for predicting the most probable precipitation and dissolution regions of gold (Au) minerals in the systems. To validate the numerical method used in the computation, analytical solutions to a benchmark problem have been derived. After the numerical method is validated, it is used to investigate the pattern of pore-fluid Aom, the distribution of temperature and the mineralization pattern of gold minerals in a layered hydrothermal system with upward throughflow. The related numerical results have demonstrated that the present concept of IRAI is useful and applicable for predicting the most probable precipitation and dissolution regions of gold (Au) minerals in hydrothermal systems. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Finite element modelling of three-dimensional convection problems in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

We use the finite element method to model three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media when they are heated from below. In particular, we employ the particle-tracking technique to mimic the trajectories of particles in three-dimensional fluid flow problems. The related numerical results demonstrated that: (1) The progressive asymptotic approach procedure, which was previously developed for the finite element modelling of two-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow problems, is equally applicable to the finite element modelling of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below. (2) The perturbation of gravity at different planes has a significant effect on the pattern of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow and therefore, may influence the pattern of orebody formation and mineralization in three-dimensional hydrothermal systems. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finite element modeling of fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins

In order to use the finite element method for solving fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins effectively and efficiently, we have presented, in this paper, the new concept and numerical algorithms to deal with the fundamental issues associated with the fluid-rock interaction problems. These fundamental issues are often overlooked by some purely numerical modelers. (1) Since the fluid-rock interaction problem involves heterogeneous chemical reactions between reactive aqueous chemical species in the pore-fluid and solid minerals in the rock masses, it is necessary to develop the new concept of the generalized concentration of a solid mineral, so that two types of reactive mass transport equations, namely, the conventional mass transport equation for the aqueous chemical species in the pore-fluid and the degenerated mass transport equation for the solid minerals in the rock mass, can be solved simultaneously in computation. (2) Since the reaction area between the pore-fluid and mineral surfaces is basically a function of the generalized concentration of the solid mineral, there is a definite need to appropriately consider the dependence of the dissolution rate of a dissolving mineral on its generalized concentration in the numerical analysis. (3) Considering the direct consequence of the porosity evolution with time in the transient analysis of fluid-rock interaction problems; we have proposed the term splitting algorithm and the concept of the equivalent source/sink terms in mass transport equations so that the problem of variable mesh Peclet number and Courant number has been successfully converted into the problem of constant mesh Peclet and Courant numbers. The numerical results from an application example have demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed concepts and the robustness of the proposed numerical algorithms in dealing with fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite element modelling of rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems

We use the finite element method to simulate the rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we consider the fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated porous rocks. Since the fluid rock interaction takes place at the contact interface between the pore-fluid and solid minerals, it is governed by the chemical reaction which usually takes place very slowly at this contact interface, from the geochemical point of view. Due to the relative slowness of the rate of the chemical reaction to the velocity of the pore-fluid flow in the hydrothermal system to be considered, there exists a retardation zone, in which the conventional static theory in geochemistry does not hold true. Since this issue is often overlooked by some purely numerical modellers, it is emphasized in this paper. The related results from a typical rock alteration and metamorphic problem in a hydrothermal system have shown not only the detailed rock alteration and metamorphic process, but also the size of the retardation zone in the hydrothermal system. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finite element modelling of heat transfer through permeable cracks in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow

We use the finite element method to model the heat transfer phenomenon through permeable cracks in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow. Since the finite element method is an approximate numerical method, the method must be validated before it is used to soh,e any new, kind of problem. However, the analytical solution, which can be used to validate the finite element method and other numerical methods, is rather limited in the literature, especially, for the problem considered here. Keeping this in mind, we have derived analytical solutions for the temperature distribution along the vertical axis of a crack in a fluid-saturated porous layer. After the finite element method is validated by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical solution for the same benchmark problem, it is used to investigate the pore-fluid flow and heat transfer in layered hydrothermal systems with vertical permeable cracks. The related analytical and numerical results have demonstrated that vertical cracks are effective and efficient members to transfer heat energy from the bottom section to the top section in hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow.

Social structures, genetic structures and dispersal strategies in Australian rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) populations

In this study, the pattern of movement of young male and female rabbits and the genetic structures present in adult male and female populations in four habitats was examined. The level of philopatry in young animals was found to vary between 18-90% for males and 32-95% for females in different populations. It was skewed, with more males dispersing than females in some but not all populations. Analysis of allozyme data using spatial autocorrelation showed that adult females from the same social group, unlike males, were significantly related in four of the five populations studied. Changes in genetic structure and rate of dispersal were measured before and during the recovery of a population that was artificially reduced in size. There were changes in the rate and distance of dispersal with density and sex. Subadults of both sexes moved further in the first year post crash (low density) than in the following years. While the level of dispersal for females was lower than that of the males for the first 3 years, thereafter (high density) both sexes showed similar, low levels of dispersal (20%). The density at which young animals switch behaviour between dispersal and philopatry differed for males and females. The level of genetic structuring in adult females was high in the precrash population, reduced in the first year post crash and undetectable in the second year. Dispersal behaviour of rabbits both affects the genetic structure of the population and changes with conditions. Over a wide range of levels of philopatry, genetic structuring is present in the adult female, but not the male population. Consequently, though genetic structuring is present, it does not lead to inbreeding. More long-distance movements are found in low-density populations, even though vacant warrens are available near birth warrens. The distances moved decreased as density increased. Calculation of the effective population size (N-e) shows that changes in dispersal distance offset changes in density, so that N-e remains constant.

Reaching those most in need: a review of diabetes self-management interventions in disadvantaged populations

There has been increased recognition of the importance of developing diabetes self-management education (DSME) interventions that are effective with under-served and minority populations. Despite several recent studies in this area, there is to our knowledge no systematic review or synthesis of what has been learned from this research. An electronic literature search identified five formative evaluations and ten controlled DSME intervention trials focused on under-served (low-income, minority or aged) populations. The RE-AIM (Reach, Efficacy, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) evaluation framework was used to evaluate the controlled studies on the dimensions of reach, efficacy, adoption, implementation, and maintenance. Fifty percent of the studies identified reported on the percentage of patients who participated, and the percentages were highly variable. The methodological quality of the articles was generally good and the short-term results were encouraging, especially on behavioral outcomes. Data on adoption (representativeness of settings and clinicians who participate) and implementation were almost never reported. Studies of modalities in addition to group meetings are needed to increase the reach of DSME with under-served populations. The promising formative evaluation work that has been conducted needs to be extended for more systematic study of the process of intervention implementation and adaptation with special populations. Studies that explicitly address the community context and that address multiple issues related to public health impact of DSME interventions are recommended to enhance long-term results. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Baseline laboratory bioassay data for spinosad against populations of Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann) (Diptera : Calliphoridae)

Spinosad was an effective larvicide against the Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina. A survey of 41 field populations indicated no cross-resistance to spinosad from existing organophosphate resistance. The data presented serve as baseline data for future resistance surveys.