Influence of Anisotropy on Pavement Responses Using Adaptive Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion

Modeling the spatial variability that exists in pavement systems can be conveniently represented by means of random fields; in this study, a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability, including the anisotropic nature of the pavement layer properties, is presented. The integration of the spatially varying log-normal random fields into a linear-elastic finite difference analysis has been achieved through the expansion optimal linear estimation method. For the estimation of the critical pavement responses, metamodels based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) are developed to replace the computationally expensive finite-difference model. The sparse polynomial chaos expansion based on an adaptive regression-based algorithm, and enhanced by the combined use of the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is used, with significant savings in computational effort. The effect of anisotropy in each layer on the pavement responses was studied separately, and an effort is made to identify the pavement layer wherein the introduction of anisotropic characteristics results in the most significant impact on the critical strains. It is observed that the anisotropy in the base layer has a significant but diverse effect on both critical strains. While the compressive strain tends to be considerably higher than that observed for the isotropic section, the tensile strains show a decrease in the mean value with the introduction of base-layer anisotropy. Furthermore, asphalt-layer anisotropy also tends to decrease the critical tensile strain while having little effect on the critical compressive strain. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Evolutionary agglomeration theory: increasing returns, diminishing returns, and the industry life cycle

According to Marshall’s agglomeration theory, Krugman’s New Economic Geography models, and Porter’s cluster policies, firms should receive increasing returns from a trinity of agglomeration economies: a local pool of skilled labour, local supplier linkages, and local knowledge spillovers. Recent evolutionary theories suggest that whether agglomeration economies generate increasing returns or diminishing returns depends on time, and especially the evolution of the industry life cycle. At the start of the twenty-first century, we re-examine Marshall’s trinity of agglomeration economies in the city-region where he discovered them. The econometric results from our multivariate regression models are the polar opposite of Marshall’s. During the later stages of the industry life cycle, Marshall’s agglomeration economies decrease the economic performance of firms and create widespread diminishing returns for the economic development of the city-region, which has evolved to become one of the poorest city-regions in Europe.

Evolutionary synthesis of stochastic gene network models using feature-based search spaces

A feature-based fitness function is applied in a genetic programming system to synthesize stochastic gene regulatory network models whose behaviour is defined by a time course of protein expression levels. Typically, when targeting time series data, the fitness function is based on a sum-of-errors involving the values of the fluctuating signal. While this approach is successful in many instances, its performance can deteriorate in the presence of noise. This thesis explores a fitness measure determined from a set of statistical features characterizing the time series' sequence of values, rather than the actual values themselves. Through a series of experiments involving symbolic regression with added noise and gene regulatory network models based on the stochastic 'if-calculus, it is shown to successfully target oscillating and non-oscillating signals. This practical and versatile fitness function offers an alternate approach, worthy of consideration for use in algorithms that evaluate noisy or stochastic behaviour.

Particle swarm optimization aided orthogonal forward regression for unified data modeling

We propose a unified data modeling approach that is equally applicable to supervised regression and classification applications, as well as to unsupervised probability density function estimation. A particle swarm optimization (PSO) aided orthogonal forward regression (OFR) algorithm based on leave-one-out (LOO) criteria is developed to construct parsimonious radial basis function (RBF) networks with tunable nodes. Each stage of the construction process determines the center vector and diagonal covariance matrix of one RBF node by minimizing the LOO statistics. For regression applications, the LOO criterion is chosen to be the LOO mean square error, while the LOO misclassification rate is adopted in two-class classification applications. By adopting the Parzen window estimate as the desired response, the unsupervised density estimation problem is transformed into a constrained regression problem. This PSO aided OFR algorithm for tunable-node RBF networks is capable of constructing very parsimonious RBF models that generalize well, and our analysis and experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm is computationally even simpler than the efficient regularization assisted orthogonal least square algorithm based on LOO criteria for selecting fixed-node RBF models. Another significant advantage of the proposed learning procedure is that it does not have learning hyperparameters that have to be tuned using costly cross validation. The effectiveness of the proposed PSO aided OFR construction procedure is illustrated using several examples taken from regression and classification, as well as density estimation applications.

Femtosecond pulse shaping using differential evolutionary algorithm and wavelet operators

Evolutionary meta-algorithms for pulse shaping of broadband femtosecond duration laser pulses are proposed. The genetic algorithm searching the evolutionary landscape for desired pulse shapes consists of a population of waveforms (genes), each made from two concatenated vectors, specifying phases and magnitudes, respectively, over a range of frequencies. Frequency domain operators such as mutation, two-point crossover average crossover, polynomial phase mutation, creep and three-point smoothing as well as a time-domain crossover are combined to produce fitter offsprings at each iteration step. The algorithm applies roulette wheel selection; elitists and linear fitness scaling to the gene population. A differential evolution (DE) operator that provides a source of directed mutation and new wavelet operators are proposed. Using properly tuned parameters for DE, the meta-algorithm is used to solve a waveform matching problem. Tuning allows either a greedy directed search near the best known solution or a robust search across the entire parameter space.

Evolutionary model trees for handling continuous classes in machine learning

Model trees are a particular case of decision trees employed to solve regression problems. They have the advantage of presenting an interpretable output, helping the end-user to get more confidence in the prediction and providing the basis for the end-user to have new insight about the data, confirming or rejecting hypotheses previously formed. Moreover, model trees present an acceptable level of predictive performance in comparison to most techniques used for solving regression problems. Since generating the optimal model tree is an NP-Complete problem, traditional model tree induction algorithms make use of a greedy top-down divide-and-conquer strategy, which may not converge to the global optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm based on the use of the evolutionary algorithms paradigm as an alternate heuristic to generate model trees in order to improve the convergence to globally near-optimal solutions. We call our new approach evolutionary model tree induction (E-Motion). We test its predictive performance using public UCI data sets, and we compare the results to traditional greedy regression/model trees induction algorithms, as well as to other evolutionary approaches. Results show that our method presents a good trade-off between predictive performance and model comprehensibility, which may be crucial in many machine learning applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimates of genetic parameters for scrotal circumference using random regression models in Nelore cattle

A total of 15,901 scrotal circumference (SC) records from 5300 Nelore bulls, ranging from 229 to 560 days of age, were used with the objective of estimating (co)variance functions for SC, using random regression models. Models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and age of dam at calving as covariable (linear and quadratic effects). To model the population mean trend, a third order Legendre polynomial on animal age was utilized. The direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental random effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials on animal age, with orders of fit ranging from 1 to 5. Residual variances were modeled considering 1 (homogeneity of variance) or 4 age classes. Results obtained with the random regression models were compared to multi-trait analysis. (Co)variance estimates using multi-trait and random regression models were similar. The model considering a third- and fifth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, was the most adequate to model changes in variance of SC with age. Heritability estimates for SC ranged from 0.24 (229 days of age) to 0.47 (300 days of age), remained almost constant until 500 days of age (0.52), decreasing thereafter (0.44). In general, the genetic correlations between measures of scrotal circumference obtained from 229 to 560 days of age decreased with increasing distance between ages. For genetic evaluation scrotal circumference could be measured between 400 and 500 days of age. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Murrah buffaloes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling of average growth curve in Santa Ines sheep using random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Metodologia estatística na solução do problema do caixeiro viajante e na avaliação de algoritmos : um estudo aplicado à transgenética computacional

The problems of combinatory optimization have involved a large number of researchers in search of approximative solutions for them, since it is generally accepted that they are unsolvable in polynomial time. Initially, these solutions were focused on heuristics. Currently, metaheuristics are used more for this task, especially those based on evolutionary algorithms. The two main contributions of this work are: the creation of what is called an -Operon- heuristic, for the construction of the information chains necessary for the implementation of transgenetic (evolutionary) algorithms, mainly using statistical methodology - the Cluster Analysis and the Principal Component Analysis; and the utilization of statistical analyses that are adequate for the evaluation of the performance of the algorithms that are developed to solve these problems. The aim of the Operon is to construct good quality dynamic information chains to promote an -intelligent- search in the space of solutions. The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is intended for applications based on a transgenetic algorithmic known as ProtoG. A strategy is also proposed for the renovation of part of the chromosome population indicated by adopting a minimum limit in the coefficient of variation of the adequation function of the individuals, with calculations based on the population. Statistical methodology is used for the evaluation of the performance of four algorithms, as follows: the proposed ProtoG, two memetic algorithms and a Simulated Annealing algorithm. Three performance analyses of these algorithms are proposed. The first is accomplished through the Logistic Regression, based on the probability of finding an optimal solution for a TSP instance by the algorithm being tested. The second is accomplished through Survival Analysis, based on a probability of the time observed for its execution until an optimal solution is achieved. The third is accomplished by means of a non-parametric Analysis of Variance, considering the Percent Error of the Solution (PES) obtained by the percentage in which the solution found exceeds the best solution available in the literature. Six experiments have been conducted applied to sixty-one instances of Euclidean TSP with sizes of up to 1,655 cities. The first two experiments deal with the adjustments of four parameters used in the ProtoG algorithm in an attempt to improve its performance. The last four have been undertaken to evaluate the performance of the ProtoG in comparison to the three algorithms adopted. For these sixty-one instances, it has been concluded on the grounds of statistical tests that there is evidence that the ProtoG performs better than these three algorithms in fifty instances. In addition, for the thirty-six instances considered in the last three trials in which the performance of the algorithms was evaluated through PES, it was observed that the PES average obtained with the ProtoG was less than 1% in almost half of these instances, having reached the greatest average for one instance of 1,173 cities, with an PES average equal to 3.52%. Therefore, the ProtoG can be considered a competitive algorithm for solving the TSP, since it is not rare in the literature find PESs averages greater than 10% to be reported for instances of this size.

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)