The surface urban energy and water balance scheme (SUEWS): evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver

An urban energy and water balance model is presented which uses a small number of commonly measured meteorological variables and information about the surface cover. Rates of evaporation-interception for a single layer with multiple surface types (paved, buildings, coniferous trees and/or shrubs, deciduous trees and/or shrubs, irrigated grass, non-irrigated grass and water) are calculated. Below each surface type, except water, there is a single soil layer. At each time step the moisture state of each surface is calculated. Horizontal water movements at the surface and in the soil are incorporated. Particular attention is given to the surface conductance used to model evaporation and its parameters. The model is tested against direct flux measurements carried out over a number of years in Vancouver, Canada and Los Angeles, USA. At all measurement sites the model is able to simulate the net all-wave radiation and turbulent sensible and latent heat well (RMSE = 25–47 W m−2, 30–64 and 20–56 W m−2, respectively). The model reproduces the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes but typically underestimates latent heat flux and overestimates sensible heat flux in the day time. The model tracks measured surface wetness and simulates the variations in soil moisture content. It is able to respond correctly to short-term events as well as annual changes. The largest uncertainty relates to the determination of surface conductance. The model has the potential be used for multiple applications; for example, to predict effects of regulation on urban water use, landscaping and planning scenarios, or to assess climate mitigation strategies.

Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models are increasing in complexity and incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them important tools for studying the global carbon cycle. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes, with coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulating total land carbon stores by 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous model evaluation methodologies. Here we assess the state-of-the-art with respect to evaluation of Earth system models, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeo data and (ii) metrics for evaluation, and discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute towards the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but it is also a challenge, as more knowledge about data uncertainties is required in order to determine robust evaluation methodologies that move the field of ESM evaluation from "beauty contest" toward the development of useful constraints on model behaviour.

Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

Evaluation of boundary-layer type in a weather forecast model utilising long-term Doppler lidar observations

Many studies evaluating model boundary-layer schemes focus either on near-surface parameters or on short-term observational campaigns. This reflects the observational datasets that are widely available for use in model evaluation. In this paper we show how surface and long-term Doppler lidar observations, combined in a way to match model representation of the boundary layer as closely as possible, can be used to evaluate the skill of boundary-layer forecasts. We use a 2-year observational dataset from a rural site in the UK to evaluate a climatology of boundary layer type forecast by the UK Met Office Unified Model. In addition, we demonstrate the use of a binary skill score (Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index) to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on season, horizontal resolution and forecast leadtime. A clear diurnal and seasonal cycle can be seen in the climatology of both the model and observations, with the main discrepancies being the model overpredicting cumulus capped and decoupled stratocumulus capped boundary-layers and underpredicting well mixed boundary-layers. Using the SEDI skill score the model is most skillful at predicting the surface stability. The skill of the model in predicting cumulus capped and stratocumulus capped stable boundary layer forecasts is low but greater than a 24 hr persistence forecast. In contrast, the prediction of decoupled boundary-layers and boundary-layers with multiple cloud layers is lower than persistence. This process based evaluation approach has the potential to be applied to other boundary-layer parameterisation schemes with similar decision structures.

An evaluation of the correlation between open solar flux and total solar irradiance

The correlation between the coronal source flux F_{S} and the total solar irradiance I_{TS} is re-evaluated in the light of an additional 5 years' data from the rising phase of solar cycle 23 and also by using cosmic ray fluxes detected at Earth. Tests on monthly averages show that the correlation with F_{S} deduced from the interplanetary magnetic field (correlation coefficient, r = 0.62) is highly significant (99.999%), but that there is insufficient data for the higher correlation with annual means (r = 0.80) to be considered significant. Anti-correlations between I_{TS} and cosmic ray fluxes are found in monthly data for all stations and geomagnetic rigidity cut-offs (r ranging from −0.63 to −0.74) and these have significance levels between 85% and 98%. In all cases, the t is poorest for the earliest data (i.e., prior to 1982). Excluding these data improves the anticorrelation with cosmic rays to r = −0:93 for one-year running means. Both the interplanetary magnetic field data and the cosmic ray fluxes indicate that the total solar irradiance lags behind the open solar flux with a delay that is estimated to have an optimum value of 2.8 months (and is within the uncertainty range 0.8-8.0 months at the 90% level).

Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations

We analyse the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-industrial (piControl) and mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6 yr BP) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene, the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows most models underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean–atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate.

A multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and possible causes

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, water cycle and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this study, the spatio-temporal aerosol distributions over South Asia from seven global aerosol models are evaluated against aerosol retrievals from NASA satellite sensors and ground-based measurements for the period of 2000–2007. Overall, substantial underestimations of aerosol loading over South Asia are found systematically in most model simulations. Averaged over the entire South Asia, the annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is underestimated by a range 15 to 44% across models compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), which is the lowest bound among various satellite AOD retrievals (from MISR, SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra). In particular during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods (i.e., October–January), when agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic emissions dominate, models fail to capture AOD and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) compared to ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometer measurements. The underestimations of aerosol loading in models generally occur in the lower troposphere (below 2 km) based on the comparisons of aerosol extinction profiles calculated by the models with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. Furthermore, surface concentrations of all aerosol components (sulfate, nitrate, organic aerosol (OA) and black carbon (BC)) from the models are found much lower than in situ measurements in winter. Several possible causes for these common problems of underestimating aerosols in models during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods are identified: the aerosol hygroscopic growth and formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are suppressed in the models because relative humidity (RH) is biased far too low in the boundary layer and thus foggy conditions are poorly represented in current models, the nitrate aerosol is either missing or inadequately accounted for, and emissions from agricultural waste burning and biofuel usage are too low in the emission inventories. These common problems and possible causes found in multiple models point out directions for future model improvements in this important region.

Evaluation of the contribution of the placentomal fusion during gestation in cattle

The placenta of mammals is a structure formed by the juxtaposition of the fetal membranes and the maternal tissues. The main function of the placenta is to regulate the physiological interchange between the fetus and the mother as well as to operate as an important endocrine organ during the gestation. The placentomal fusions were characterized throughout gestation of cattle using macroscopic, histological and flow cytometry analyses. Analyzing the cell cycle phases with a flow cytometry, a balance between the G2M phase and apoptosis was observed, suggesting that the placentomal fusions do not interfere in the placentary maturation process, which is a pre-requirement for the fetal-maternal disconnection and the release of fetal membrane. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Half-sib progenies evaluation in velvet grass

O capim-lanudo (Holcus lanatus L.) possui grande potencial de utilização como pastagem de inverno nas regiões subtropicais, devido a seu bom estabelecimento, persistência, produção, resistência ao frio, palatabilidade e capacidade de afilhamento. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a variabilidade genética e a herdabilidade de caracteres agronômicos e identificar progênies superiores. Foram avaliadas 60 progênies de meios-irmãos, para altura (NH) e diâmetro da planta na fase vegetativa, duração do ciclo vegetativo (ciclo), altura final (FH) e número de afilhos. Houve diferença entre progênies para todos os caracteres. As estimativas de herdabilidade foram de 38%, 32%, 92%, 57% e 64% para NH, diâmetro, ciclo, FH e afilhos, respectivamente. O maior ganho genético estimado foi de 30,77 % para o número de afilhos. Existe variabilidade para todos os caracteres e são esperados ganhos na seleção entre progênies.

Effects of environmental conditions, human activity, reproduction, antler cycle and grouping on fecal glucocorticoids of free-ranging Pampas deer stags (Ozotoceros bezoarticus bezoarticus)

In this study, a commercial enzyme immunoassay (EIA) was validated in detecting glucocorticoids in Pampas deer feces, in order to investigate the influence of several factors on the adrenocortical function. Fecal samples, behavioral data and information concerning male grouping and antlers status were collected at a monthly basis during a 1 year period from free-ranging stags living at Emas National Park, Brazil (18 degrees S/52 degrees W). The results revealed that concentrations of fecal glucocorticoids in winter were significantly higher than those corresponding to spring and summer. In addition, dry season data presented higher levels than during the wet season. Significant difference was found between fecal levels of breeding stags in summer and nonbreeding stags, whereas no difference was observed between breeding stags in winter and nonbreeding stags. on the other hand, males from areas with frequent human disturbance exhibited higher glucocorticoid concentrations and flight distances than individuals from areas of lower human activity. Males with antlers in velvet had elevated levels compared with animals in hard antler or antler casting. Also, we found that glucocorticoid levels were higher in groups with three or more males than in groups with only one male. The flight distances showed positive correlation with fecal glucocorticoid. These data indicate that fecal glucocorticoid provides a useful approach in the evaluation of physiological effects of environment, inter-individuals relationship and human-induced stressors on free-ranging Pampas deer stags. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal changes in fecal testosterone concentrations and their relationship to the reproductive behavior, antler cycle and grouping patterns in free-ranging male Pampas deer (Ozotoceros bezoarticus bezoarticus)

The purpose of this study was to validate noninvasive endocrine monitoring techniques for Pampas deer and to evaluate seasonal changes in testicular steroidogenic activity and their correlation to reproductive behavior, antler cycle and group size. Thus, fecal samples, behavioral data and observations of antler status were collected at monthly intervals during 1 year from free-ranging Pampas deer stags (three radio-collared individuals and 15 random individuals) living in Emas National Park, Brazil (18 degrees S latitude). Fecal steroids were extracted using 80% methanol and steroid concentrations were quantified by a commercial enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Fecal testosterone concentrations peaked in December-January (summer), March (early autumn) and in August-September (winter-spring), with minimal values from April-July. Reproductive behavior had two peaks, the first in December-January, characterized by predominately anogenital sniffing, flehmen, urine sniffing, chasing and mounting behavior, and the second peak in July-September (behavior primarily related to gland marking). There were significant correlations between fecal testosterone and reproductive behavior (r = 0.490), and between fecal testosterone and antler phases (r = 0.239). Antler casting and regrowth occurred under low testosterone concentrations, whereas velvet shedding was associated with high concentrations of testosterone. We inferred that Pampas deer stags exhibited a seasonal cycle that modulated sexual behavior and the antler cycle, and we concluded that fecal steroid analysis was a practical and reliable non-invasive method for the evaluation of the endocrine status of free-ranging Pampas deer. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of energy and protein levels on egg quality and performance of laying hens at early second production cycle

One hundred sixty-two commercial 70-wk-old ISA Brown laying hens, previously subjected to induced molting by feed restriction, were distributed in a completely randomized design with 3 x 3 factorial arrangement (i.e., 3 metabolizable energy levels: 2,850; 2,950, and 3,050 kcal of ME/kg) and 3 protein levels (16, 18, and 20% CP), which totaled 9 treatments with 3 replicates of 6 birds each. Experimental diets were offered to birds after the feed restriction period. Performance and egg quality parameters were evaluated in 14-d intervals from the 4th to 12th weeks after forced molting for a total of 4 evaluation periods. Increases in dietary energy and protein levels did not improve performance or egg quality. The levels of 2,850 kcal of ME and 16% protein were sufficient for laying hens starting the second production cycle without decreasing their performance or egg quality.

Estimation and evaluation of dynamic properties as indicators of changes on soil structure in sugarcane fields of São Paulo State - Brazil

The indiscriminate management and use of soils without moisture control has changed the structure of it due to the increment of the traffic by agricultural machines through the years, causing in consequence, a soil compaction and yield reduction in the areas of intensive traffic. The purpose of this work was to estimate and to evaluate the performance of preconsolidation pressure of the soil and shear stress as indicators of changes on soil structure in fields cropped with sugarcane, as well as the impact of management processes in an Eutrorthox soil structure located in São Paulo State. The experimental field was located in Piracicaba's rural area (São Paulo State, Brazil) and has been cropped with sugarcane, in the second harvest cycle. The soil was classified by Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) [Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA), 1999. Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Solos. Sistema Brasileiro de Classificao de Solos, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA), Brasilia, 412 pp.] as an Eutrorthox. Undisturbed samples were collected and georeferenced in a grid of 60 m x 60 m from two depths: 0-0.10 m (superficial layer - SL) and in the layer of greatest mechanical resistance (LGMR), previously identified by cone index (CI). The investigated variables were pressure preconsolidation (sigma(p)), apparent cohesion (c) and internal friction angle (phi). The conclusions from the results were that the SLSC was predicted satisfactorily from up as a function of soil moisture; thus, decisions about machinery size and loading (contact pressures) can be taken. Apparent cohesion (c), internal friction angle (phi) and the Coulomb equation were significantly altered by traffic intensity. The sigma(p), c and phi maps were shown to be important tools to localize and visualize soil compaction and mechanical resistance zones. They constitute a valuable resource to evaluate the traffic impact in areas cropped with sugarcane in State of São Paulo, Brazil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cell cycle arrest evidence, parasiticidal and bactericidal properties induced by L-amino acid oxidase from Bothrops atrox snake venom

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of fatigue behavior on repaired carbon fiber/epoxy composites

The continuous use of structural polymer composites in aeronautical industry has required the development of repairing techniques of damages found in different types of laminates. The most usually adopted procedure to investigate the repair of composite laminates has been by repairing damages simulated in laminated composite specimens. This work shows the influence of structural repair technique on mechanical properties of a typical carbon fiber/epoxy laminate used in aerospace industry. When analyzed by tensile test, the laminates with and without repair present tensile strength values of 670 and 892 MPa, respectively, and tensile modulus of 53.0 and 67.2 GPa, respectively. By this result, it is possible to observe a decrease of the measured mechanical properties of the repaired composites. When submitted to fatigue test, it is observed that in loads higher than 250 MPa, this laminate presents a low life cycle (lower than 400,000 cycles). The fatigue performance of both laminates is comparable, but the non-repaired laminate presented higher tensile and fatigue resistance when compared with the repaired laminate.