Geometric sensitivity of patient-specific finite element models of the spine to variability in user-selected anatomical landmarks

Software to create individualised finite element (FE) models of the osseoligamentous spine using pre-operative computed tomography (CT) data-sets for spinal surgery patients has recently been developed. This study presents a geometric sensitivity analysis of this software to assess the effect of intra-observer variability in user-selected anatomical landmarks. User-selected landmarks on the osseous anatomy were defined from CT data-sets for three scoliosis patients and these landmarks were used to reconstruct patient-specific anatomy of the spine and ribcage using parametric descriptions. The intra-observer errors in landmark co-ordinates for these anatomical landmarks were calculated. FE models of the spine and ribcage were created using the reconstructed anatomy for each patient and these models were analysed for a loadcase simulating clinical flexibility assessment. The intra-observer error in the anatomical measurements was low in comparison to the initial dimensions, with the exception of the angular measurements for disc wedge and zygapophyseal joint (z-joint) orientation and disc height. This variability suggested that CT resolution may influence such angular measurements, particularly for small anatomical features, such as the z-joints, and may also affect disc height. The results of the FE analysis showed low variation in the model predictions for spinal curvature with the mean intra-observer variability substantially less than the accepted error in clinical measurement. These findings demonstrate that intra-observer variability in landmark point selection has minimal effect on the subsequent FE predictions for a clinical loadcase.

In pursuit of an architecture realism

The noble idea of studying seminal works to ‘see what we can learn’ has turned in the 1990s into ‘let’s see what we can take’ and in the last decade a more toxic derivative ‘what else can’t we take’. That is my observation as a student of architecture in the 1990s, and as a practitioner in the 2000s. In 2010, the sense that something is ending is clear. The next generation is rising and their gaze has shifted. The idea of classification (as a means of separation) was previously rejected by a generation of Postmodernists; the usefulness of difference declined. It’s there in the presence of plurality in the resulting architecture, a decision to mine history and seize in a willful manner. This is a process of looking back but never forward. It has been a mono-culture of absorption. The mono-culture rejected the pursuit of the realistic. It is a blanket suffocating all practice of architecture in this country from the mercantile to the intellectual. Independent reviews of Australia’s recent contributions to the Venice Architecture Biennales confirm the malaise. The next generation is beginning to reconsider classification as a means of unification. By acknowledging the characteristics of competing forces it is possible to bring them into a state of tension. Seeking a beautiful contrast is a means to a new end. In the political setting, this is described by Noel Pearson as the radical centre[1]. The concept transcends the political and in its most essential form is a cultural phenomenon. It resists the compromised position and suggests that we can look back while looking forward. The radical centre is the only demonstrated opportunity where it is possible to pursue a realistic architecture. A realistic architecture in Australia may be partially resolved by addressing our anxiety of permanence. Farrelly’s built desires[2] and Markham’s ritual demonstrations[3] are two ways into understanding the broader spectrum of permanence. But I think they are downstream of our core problem. Our problem, as architects, is that we are yet to come to terms with this place. Some call it landscape others call it country. Australian cities were laid out on what was mistaken for a blank canvas. On some occasions there was the consideration of the landscape when it presented insurmountable physical obstacles. The architecture since has continued to work on its piece of a constantly blank canvas. Even more ironic is the commercial awards programs that represent a claim within this framework but at best can only establish a dialogue within itself. This is a closed system unable to look forward. It is said that Melbourne is the most European city in the southern hemisphere but what is really being described there is the limitation of a senseless grid. After all, if Dutch landscape informs Dutch architecture why can’t the Australian landscape inform Australian architecture? To do that, we would have to acknowledge our moribund grasp of the meaning of the Australian landscape. Or more precisely what Indigenes call Country[4]. This is a complex notion and there are different ways into it. Country is experienced and understood through the senses and seared into memory. If one begins design at that starting point it is not unreasonable to think we can arrive at an end point that is a counter trajectory to where we have taken ourselves. A recent studio with Masters students confirmed this. Start by finding Country and it would be impossible to end up with a building looking like an Aboriginal man’s face. To date architecture in Australia has overwhelmingly ignored Country on the back of terra nullius. It can’t seem to get past the picturesque. Why is it so hard? The art world came to terms with this challenge, so too did the legal establishment, even the political scene headed into new waters. It would be easy to blame the budgets of commerce or the constraints of program or even the pressure of success. But that is too easy. Those factors are in fact the kind of limitations that opportunities grow out of. The past decade of economic plenty has, for the most part, smothered the idea that our capitals might enable civic settings or an architecture that is able to looks past lot line boundaries in a dignified manner. The denied opportunities of these settings to be prompted by the Country they occupy is criminal. The public realm is arrested in its development because we refuse to accept Country as a spatial condition. What we seem to be able to embrace is literal and symbolic gestures usually taking the form of a trumped up art installations. All talk – no action. To continue to leave the public realm to the stewardship of mercantile interests is like embracing derivative lending after the global financial crisis.Herein rests an argument for why we need a resourced Government Architect’s office operating not as an isolated lobbyist for business but as a steward of the public realm for both the past and the future. New South Wales is the leading model with Queensland close behind. That is not to say both do not have flaws but current calls for their cessation on the grounds of design parity poorly mask commercial self interest. In Queensland, lobbyists are heavily regulated now with an aim to ensure integrity and accountability. In essence, what I am speaking of will not be found in Reconciliation Action Plans that double as business plans, or the mining of Aboriginal culture for the next marketing gimmick, or even discussions around how to make buildings more ‘Aboriginal’. It will come from the next generation who reject the noxious mono-culture of absorption and embrace a counter trajectory to pursue an architecture of realism.

Adaptive nature of coordinated road traffic injury prevention responses in some OECD countries

This study examines the context of coordinated responses, triggers for coordinated responses, and preference for or choice of coordinating strategies in road traffic injury prevention at a local level in some OECD countries. This aim is achieved through a mixed-methodology. In this respect, 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with road traffic injury prevention experts from five OECD countries. In addition, 31 professional road traffic injury prevention stakeholders from seven OECD nations completed a self-administered, online survey. It found that there was resource limitation and inter-dependence across actors within the context of road traffic injury prevention at a local level. Furthermore, this study unveiled the realization of resource-dependency as a trigger for coordinated responses at a local level. Moreover, the present examination has revealed two coordinating strategies favored by experts in road traffic injury prevention – i.e. self-organizing community groups, which are deemed to have a platform to deliver programs within communities, and the funding of community groups to forge partnerships. However, the present study did not appear to endorse other strategies such as the formalization of coordinated responses or a legal mandate to coordinate responses. In essence, this study appears to suggest a need to manage coordinated responses from an adaptive perspective with interactions across road traffic injury prevention programs being forged on a mutual understanding of inter-dependency arising out of resource scarcity. In fact, the role of legislation and top-down national models in local level management of coordinated responses is likely to be one of identifying opportunities to interact with self-organized community groups and fund partnership-based road traffic injury prevention events.

Corrigendum to "Mapping hippocampal and ventricular change in Alzheimer disease" [NeuroImage 22 (2004) 1754-1766] (DOI:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2004.03.040)

We recently noticed an error in the demographic data in this article. The validity of the findings and the conclusions of the paper is not affected. However, there is an error in the reported sample size and in the means and standard deviations of the subjects’ ages and MMSE scores. We would like to correct this error, which came to light when we were re-analyzing the data for a meta-analysis. The error occurred because an older version of a spreadsheet was incorrectly used when reporting the sample composition. Instead of examining 12 Alzheimer's disease patients and 14 healthy elderly controls, we in fact examined 17 Alzheimer’s disease patients and 14 healthy elderly controls. All maps and morphometric data reported in the paper are correct, except that the sample size was in fact slightly higher than that originally reported, and the maps computed in the paper were based on the larger sample (which included five more subjects in the Alzheimer’s disease group). All of the maps and figures in the paper are correct, and the conclusions of the paper are unchanged. We apologize for this error, which falls under the sole responsibility of the first author. The corrected demographic information appears below.

Letter Reply: Distribution of TNFA haplotypes in healthy Caucasians: Comment on the articles by Newton et al and Zeggini et al

We thank Ploski and colleagues for their interest in our study. The explanation for the difference in our findings is a typographic error in Table 2 of our article, whereby the alleles for marker TNF ⫺1031 were labeled incorrectly...

Combining transcriptome assemblies from multiple de novo assemblers in the allo-tetraploid plant Nicotiana benthamiana

Background Nicotiana benthamiana is an allo-tetraploid plant, which can be challenging for de novo transcriptome assemblies due to homeologous and duplicated gene copies. Transcripts generated from such genes can be distinct yet highly similar in sequence, with markedly differing expression levels. This can lead to unassembled, partially assembled or mis-assembled contigs. Due to the different properties of de novo assemblers, no one assembler with any one given parameter space can re-assemble all possible transcripts from a transcriptome. Results In an effort to maximise the diversity and completeness of de novo assembled transcripts, we utilised four de novo transcriptome assemblers, TransAbyss, Trinity, SOAPdenovo-Trans, and Oases, using a range of k-mer sizes and different input RNA-seq read counts. We complemented the parameter space biologically by using RNA from 10 plant tissues. We then combined the output of all assemblies into a large super-set of sequences. Using a method from the EvidentialGene pipeline, the combined assembly was reduced from 9.9 million de novo assembled transcripts to about 235,000 of which about 50,000 were classified as primary. Metrics such as average bit-scores, feature response curves and the ability to distinguish paralogous or homeologous transcripts, indicated that the EvidentialGene processed assembly was of high quality. Of 35 RNA silencing gene transcripts, 34 were identified as assembled to full length, whereas in a previous assembly using only one assembler, 9 of these were partially assembled. Conclusions To achieve a high quality transcriptome, it is advantageous to implement and combine the output from as many different de novo assemblers as possible. We have in essence taking the ‘best’ output from each assembler while minimising sequence redundancy. We have also shown that simultaneous assessment of a variety of metrics, not just focused on contig length, is necessary to gauge the quality of assemblies.

Errors in the knee joint forces and moments during gait depending on the foot and knee prosthetic components

Background Previously studies showed that inverse dynamics based on motion analysis and force-plate is inaccurate compared to direct measurements for individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA). Indeed, direct measurements can appropriately take into account the absorption at the prosthetic foot and the resistance at the prosthetic knee. [1-3] However, these studies involved only a passive prosthetic knee. Aim The objective of the present study was to investigate if different types of prosthetic feet and knees can exhibit different levels of error in the knee joint forces and moments. Method Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 9 TFAs (7 males and 2 females, 47±9 years old, 1.76±0.1 m 79±17 kg) with a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden), force plates (Kitsler, Winterthur, Switzerland) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee [1-17]. TFAs were all fitted with an osseointegrated implant system. The prostheses included different type of foot (N=5) and knee (N=3) components. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between direct measurements and the knee joint forces and moments estimated by inverse dynamics were computed for stance and swing phases of gait and expressed as a percentage of the measured amplitudes. A one-way Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA was performed (Statgraphics, Levallois-Perret, France) to analyse the effects of the prosthetic components on the RMSEs. Cross-effects and post-hoc tests were not analysed in this study. Results A significant effect (*) was found for the type of prosthetic foot on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.016), lateral-medial force during stance (p=0.009), adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.038), internal-external rotation moment during stance (p=0.014) and during swing (p=0.006), and flexion-extension moment during stance (p = 0.035). A significant effect (#) was found for the type of prosthetic knee on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.018) and adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.035). Discussion & Conclusion The RMSEs were larger during swing than during stance. It is because the errors on accelerations (as derived from motion analysis) become substantial with respect to the external loads. Thus, inverse dynamics during swing should be analysed with caution because the mean RMSEs are close to 50%. Conversely, there were fewer effects of the prosthetic components on RMSE during swing than during stance and, accordingly, fewer effects due to knees than feet. Thus, inverse dynamics during stance should be used with caution for comparison of different prosthetic components.

Optimum choice of wavelengths in the anomalous scattering technique with synchrotron radiation

A formula has been derived for the mean-square error in the phases of crystal reflections determined through the multiwavelength anomalous scattering method.The error is written in terms of a simple function of the positions in the complex plane of the 'centres' corresponding to the different wavelengths. For the case of three centres, the mean-square error is inversely proportional to the area of the triangle formed by them.

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Near infrared spectroscopy as a rapid tool to measure volatile aroma compounds in Riesling wine: Possibilities and limits

Volatile chemical compounds responsible for the aroma of wine are derived from a number of different biochemical and chemical pathways. These chemical compounds are formed during grape berry metabolism, crushing of the berries, fermentation processes (i.e. yeast and malolactic bacteria) and also from the ageing and storage of wine. Not surprisingly, there are a large number of chemical classes of compounds found in wine which are present at varying concentrations (ng L-1 to mg L-1), exhibit differing potencies, and have a broad range of volatilities and boiling points. The aim of this work was to investigate the potential use of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with chemometrics as a rapid and low-cost technique to measure volatile compounds in Riesling wines. Samples of commercial Riesling wine were analyzed using an NIR instrument and volatile compounds by gas chromatography (GC) coupled with selected ion monitoring mass spectrometry. Correlation between the NIR and GC data were developed using partial least-squares (PLS) regression with full cross validation (leave one out). Coefficients of determination in cross validation (R 2) and the standard error in cross validation (SECV) were 0.74 (SECV: 313.6 μg L−1) for esters, 0.90 (SECV: 20.9 μg L−1) for monoterpenes and 0.80 (SECV: 1658 ?g L-1) for short-chain fatty acids. This study has shown that volatile chemical compounds present in wine can be measured by NIR spectroscopy. Further development with larger data sets will be required to test the predictive ability of the NIR calibration models developed.

How Good is the Assumption About Visible Surface Reflectance in MODIS Aerosol Retrieval Over Land? A Comparison With Aircraft Measurements Over an Urban Site in India

In this paper, we discuss the measurements of spectral surface reflectance (rho(s)(lambda)) in the wavelength range 350-2500 nm measured using a spectroradiometer onboard a low-flying aircraft over Bangalore (12.95 degrees N, 77.65 degrees E), an urban site in southern India. The large discrepancies in the retrieval of aerosol propertiesover land by the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which could be attributed to the inaccurate estimation of surface reflectance at many sites in India and elsewhere, provided motivation for this paper. The aim of this paper was to verify the surface reflectance relationships assumed by the MODIS aerosol algorithm for the estimation of surface reflectance in the visible channels (470 and 660 nm) from the surface reflectance at 2100 nm for aerosol retrieval over land. The variety of surfaces observed in this paper includes green and dry vegetations, bare land, and urban surfaces. The measuredreflectance data were first corrected for the radiative effects of atmosphere lying between the ground and aircraft using the Second Simulation of Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer code. The corrected surface reflectance in the MODIS's blue (rho(s)(470)), red (rho(s)(660)), and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) channel (rho(s)(2100)) was linearly correlated. We found that the slope of reflectance relationship between 660 and 2100 nm derived from the forward scattering data was 0.53 with an intercept of 0.07, whereas the slope for the relationship between the reflectance at 470 and 660 nm was 0.85. These values are much higher than the slope (similar to 0.49) for either wavelengths assumed by the MODIS aerosol algorithm over this region. The reflectance relationship for the backward scattering data has a slope of 0.39, with an intercept of 0.08 for 660 nm, and 0.65, with an intercept of 0.08 for 470 nm. The large values of the intercept (which is very small in the MODIS reflectance relationships) result in larger values of absolute surface reflectance in the visible channels. The discrepancy between the measured and assumed surface reflectances could lead to error in the aerosol retrieval. The reflectance ratio (rho(s)(660)/rho(s)(2100)) showed a clear dependence on the N D V I-SWIR where the ratio increased from 0.5 to 1 with an increase in N V I-SWIR from 0 to 0.5. The high correlation between the reflectance at SWIR wavelengths (2100, 1640, and 1240 nm) indicated an opportunity to derive the surface reflectance and, possibly, aerosol properties at these wavelengths. We need more experiments to characterize the surface reflectance and associated inhomogeneity of land surfaces, which play a critical role in the remote sensing of aerosols over land.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

R-parameter: A local truncation error based adaptive framework for finite volume compressible flow solvers

A residual-based strategy to estimate the local truncation error in a finite volume framework for steady compressible flows is proposed. This estimator, referred to as the -parameter, is derived from the imbalance arising from the use of an exact operator on the numerical solution for conservation laws. The behaviour of the residual estimator for linear and non-linear hyperbolic problems is systematically analysed. The relationship of the residual to the global error is also studied. The -parameter is used to derive a target length scale and consequently devise a suitable criterion for refinement/derefinement. This strategy, devoid of any user-defined parameters, is validated using two standard test cases involving smooth flows. A hybrid adaptive strategy based on both the error indicators and the -parameter, for flows involving shocks is also developed. Numerical studies on several compressible flow cases show that the adaptive algorithm performs excellently well in both two and three dimensions.

Urban energy fluxes in Helsinki and their high frequency spectral corrections

Inadvertent climate modification has led to an increase in urban temperatures compared to the surrounding rural area. The main reason for the temperature rise is the altered energy portioning of input net radiation to heat storage and sensible and latent heat fluxes in addition to the anthropogenic heat flux. The heat storage flux and anthropogenic heat flux have not yet been determined for Helsinki and they are not directly measurable. To the contrary, turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat in addition to net radiation can be measured, and the anthropogenic heat flux together with the heat storage flux can be solved as a residual. As a result, all inaccuracies in the determination of the energy balance components propagate to the residual term and special attention must be paid to the accurate determination of the components. One cause of error in the turbulent fluxes is the fluctuation attenuation at high frequencies which can be accounted for by high frequency spectral corrections. The aim of this study is twofold: to assess the relevance of high frequency corrections to water vapor fluxes and to assess the temporal variation of the energy fluxes. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat have been measured at SMEAR III station, Helsinki, since December 2005 using the eddy covariance technique. In addition, net radiation measurements have been ongoing since July 2007. The used calculation methods in this study consist of widely accepted eddy covariance data post processing methods in addition to Fourier and wavelet analysis. The high frequency spectral correction using the traditional transfer function method is highly dependent on relative humidity and has an 11% effect on the latent heat flux. This method is based on an assumption of spectral similarity which is shown not to be valid. A new correction method using wavelet analysis is thus initialized and it seems to account for the high frequency variation deficit. Anyhow, the resulting wavelet correction remains minimal in contrast to the traditional transfer function correction. The energy fluxes exhibit a behavior characteristic for urban environments: the energy input is channeled to sensible heat as latent heat flux is restricted by water availability. The monthly mean residual of the energy balance ranges from 30 Wm-2 in summer to -35 Wm-2 in winter meaning a heat storage to the ground during summer. Furthermore, the anthropogenic heat flux is approximated to be 50 Wm-2 during winter when residential heating is important.

Longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness in childhood

• Evidence from cross-sectional studies1,2 suggests that choroidal thickness (ChT) varies with age and refractive error in childhood. However, to date there have been no longitudinal studies examining changes in pediatric ChT. • In this prospective study, the longitudinal changes in ChT and its relationship with eye growth were examined in a population of normal children with a range of refractive errors.