Regularization of time-varying descriptor systems by the asvd

We study linear variable coefficient control problems in descriptor form. Based on a behaviour approach and the general theory for linear differential algebraic systems we give the theoretical analysis and describe numerically stable methods to determine the structural properties of the system.

A numerical model of the ionospheric signatures of time-varying magnetic reconnection: III. Quasi-instantaneous convection responses in the Cowley-Lockwood paradigm

Using a numerical implementation of the Cowley and Lockwood (1992) model of flow excitation in the magnetosphere–ionosphere (MI) system, we show that both an expanding (on a _12-min timescale) and a quasiinstantaneous response in ionospheric convection to the onset of magnetopause reconnection can be accommodated by the Cowley–Lockwood conceptual framework. This model has a key feature of time dependence, necessarily considering the history of the coupled MI system. We show that a residual flow, driven by prior magnetopause reconnection, can produce a quasi-instantaneous global ionospheric convection response; perturbations from an equilibrium state may also be present from tail reconnection, which will superpose constructively to give a similar effect. On the other hand, when the MI system is relatively free of pre-existing flow, we can most clearly see the expanding nature of the response. As the open-closed field line boundary will frequently be in motion from such prior reconnection (both at the dayside magnetopause and in the cross-tail current sheet), it is expected that there will usually be some level of combined response to dayside reconnection.

A numerical model of the ionospheric signatures of time-varying magnetic reconnection: II. Measuring expansions in the ionospheric flow response

A numerical model embodying the concepts of the Cowley-Lockwood (Cowley and Lockwood, 1992, 1997) paradigm has been used to produce a simple Cowley– Lockwood type expanding flow pattern and to calculate the resulting change in ion temperature. Cross-correlation, fixed threshold analysis and threshold relative to peak are used to determine the phase speed of the change in convection pattern, in response to a change in applied reconnection. Each of these methods fails to fully recover the expansion of the onset of the convection response that is inherent in the simulations. The results of this study indicate that any expansion of the convection pattern will be best observed in time-series data using a threshold which is a fixed fraction of the peak response. We show that these methods used to determine the expansion velocity can be used to discriminate between the two main models for the convection response to a change in reconnection.

A numerical model of the ionospheric signatures of time-varying magneticreconnection: I. ionospheric convection

This paper presents a numerical model for predicting the evolution of the pattern of ionospheric convection in response to general time-dependent magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause and in the cross-tail current sheet of the geomagnetic tail. The model quantifies the concepts of ionospheric flow excitation by Cowley and Lockwood (1992), assuming a uniform spatial distribution of ionospheric conductivity. The model is demonstrated using an example in which travelling reconnection pulses commence near noon and then move across the dayside magnetopause towards both dawn and dusk. Two such pulses, 8 min apart, are used and each causes the reconnection to be active for 1 min at every MLT that they pass over. This example demonstrates how the convection response to a given change in the interplanetary magnetic field (via the reconnection rate) depends on the previous reconnection history. The causes of this effect are explained. The inherent assumptions and the potential applications of the model are discussed.

Modelling the high-latitude ionosphere for time-varying plasma convection

The paper discusses how variations in the pattern of convective plasma flows should beincluded in self-consistent time-dependent models of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system. The author shows how these variations depend upon the mechanism by which the solar wind flow excites the convection. The modelling of these effects is not just of relevance to the polar ionosphere. This is because the influence of convection is not confined to high latitudes: the resultant heating and composition changes in the thermosphere are communicated to lower latitudes by the winds which are also greatly modified by the plasma convection. These thermospheric changes alter the global distribution of plasma by modulatingthe rates of the chemical reactions which areresponsible for the loss of plasma. Hence the modelling of these high-latitude processes is of relevanceto the design and operation of HF communication, radar and navigation systems worldwide.

Time-varying price discovery in the eighteenth century: empirical evidence from the London and Amsterdam stock markets

This paper examines the time-varying nature of price discovery in eighteenth century cross-listed stocks. Specifically, we investigate how quickly news is reflected in prices for two of the great moneyed com- panies, the Bank of England and the East India Company, over the period 1723 to 1794. These British companies were cross-listed on the London and Amsterdam stock exchange and news between the capitals flowed mainly via the use of boats that transported mail. We examine in detail the historical context sur- rounding the defining events of the period, and use these as a guide to how the data should be analysed. We show that both trading venues contributed to price discovery, and although the London venue was more important for these stocks, its importance varies over time.

Time varying price discovery

We show how multivariate GARCH models can be used to generate a time-varying “information share” (Hasbrouck, 1995) to represent the changing patterns of price discovery in closely related securities. We find that time-varying information shares can improve credit spread predictions.

Bose systems in spatially random or time-varying potentials

Bose systems, subject to the action of external random potentials, are considered. For describing the system properties, under the action of spatially random potentials of arbitrary strength, the stochastic mean-field approximation is employed. When the strength of disorder increases, the extended Bose-Einstein condensate fragments into spatially disconnected regions, forming a granular condensate. Increasing the strength of disorder even more transforms the granular condensate into the normal glass. The influence of time-dependent external potentials is also discussed. Fastly varying temporal potentials, to some extent, imitate the action of spatially random potentials. In particular, strong time-alternating potential can induce the appearance of a nonequilibrium granular condensate.

Comparing time-varying autoregressive structures of locally stationary processes

In this paper, a novel statistical test is introduced to compare two locally stationary time series. The proposed approach is a Wald test considering time-varying autoregressive modeling and function projections in adequate spaces. The covariance structure of the innovations may be also time- varying. In order to obtain function estimators for the time- varying autoregressive parameters, we consider function expansions in splines and wavelet bases. Simulation studies provide evidence that the proposed test has a good performance. We also assess its usefulness when applied to a financial time series.

Um modelo "time-varying markov-Switching" para crescimento econômico e algoritmo de estimação

Este trabalho elabora um modelo para investigação do padrão de variação do crescimento econômico, entre diferentes países e através do tempo, usando um framework Markov- Switching com matriz de transição variável. O modelo desenvolvido segue a abordagem de Pritchett (2003), explicando a dinâmica do crescimento a partir de uma coleção de diferentes estados – cada qual com seu sub-modelo e padrão de crescimento – através dos quais os países oscilam ao longo do tempo. A matriz de transição entre os diferentes estados é variante no tempo, dependendo de variáveis condicionantes de cada país e a dinâmica de cada estado é linear. Desenvolvemos um método de estimação generalizando o Algoritmo EM de Diebold et al. (1993) e estimamos um modelo-exemplo em painel com a matriz de transição condicionada na qualidade das instituições e no nível de investimento. Encontramos três estados de crescimento: crescimento estável, ‘milagroso’ e estagnação - virtualmente coincidentes com os três primeiros de Jerzmanowski (2006). Os resultados mostram que a qualidade das instituições é um importante determinante do crescimento de longo prazo enquanto o nível de investimento tem papel diferenciado: contribui positivamente em países com boa qualidade de instituições e tem papel pouco relevante para os países com instituições medianas ou piores.

Duality with time-changed Lévy processes

In this paper we study the pricing problem of derivatives written in terms of a two dimensional time{changed L¶evy processes. Then, we examine an existing relation between prices of put and call options, of both the European and the American type. This relation is called put{call duality. It includes as a particular case, the relation known as put{call symmetry. Necessary and su±cient conditions for put{call symmetry to hold are shown, in terms of the triplet of local charac- teristic of the Time{changed L¶evy process. In this way we extend the results obtained in Fajardo and Mordecki (2004) to the case of time{changed Lévy processes.

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometry combined with solid phase microextraction as a powerful tool for quantification of ethyl carbamate in fortified wines. The case study of Madeira wine

An analytical methodology based on headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography—time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC–ToFMS) was developed for the identification and quantification of the toxic contaminant ethyl carbamate (EC) directly in fortified wines. The method performance was assessed for dry/medium dry and sweet/medium sweet model wines, and for quantification purposes, calibration plots were performed for both matrices using the ion extraction chromatography (IEC) mode (m/z 62). Good linearity was obtained with a regression coefficient (r2) higher than 0.981. A good precision was attained (R.S.D. <20%) and low detection limits (LOD) were achieved for dry (4.31 μg/L) and sweet (2.75 μg/L) model wines. The quantification limits (LOQ) and recovery for dry wines were 14.38 μg/L and 88.6%, whereas for sweet wines were 9.16 μg/L and 99.4%, respectively. The higher performance was attainted with sweet model wine, as increasing of glucose content improves the volatile compound in headspace, and a better linearity, recovery and precision were achieved. The analytical methodology was applied to analyse 20 fortified Madeira wines including different types of wine (dry, medium dry, sweet, and medium sweet) obtained from several harvests in Madeira Island (Portugal). The EC levels ranged from 54.1 μg/L (medium dry) to 162.5 μg/L (medium sweet).

In-depth search focused on furans, lactones, volatile phenols, and acetals as potential age markers of Madeira wines by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometry combined with solid phase microextraction

The establishment of potential age markers of Madeira wine is of paramount significance as it may contribute to detect frauds and to ensure the authenticity of wine. Considering the chemical groups of furans, lactones, volatile phenols, and acetals, 103 volatile compounds were tentatively identified; among these, 71 have been reported for the first time in Madeira wines. The chemical groups that could be used as potential age markers were predominantly acetals, namely, diethoxymethane, 1,1-diethoxyethane, 1,1-diethoxy-2-methyl-propane, 1-(1-ethoxyethoxy)-pentane, trans-dioxane and 2-propyl-1,3-dioxolane, and from the other chemical groups, 5-methylfurfural and cis-oak-lactone, independently of the variety and the type of wine. GC × GC-ToFMS system offers a more useful approach to identify these compounds compared to previous studies using GC−qMS, due to the orthogonal systems, that reduce coelution, increase peak capacity and mass selectivity, contributing to the establishment of new potential Madeira wine age markers. Remarkable results were also obtained in terms of compound identification based on the organized structure of the peaks of structurally related compounds in the GC × GC peak apex plots. This information represents a valuable approach for future studies, as the ordered-structure principle can considerably help the establishment of the composition of samples. This new approach provides data that can be extended to determine age markers of other types of wines.

Estufas climatizadas para experimentos ambientais com rãs, em gaiolas

Foram construídas seis estufas climatizadas, instaladas inicialmente no Ranário Experimental da Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV) e, posteriormente, no Ranário Experimental da Fundação Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, com o objetivo de realizar experimentos para avaliar os efeitos do ambiente sobre o desempenho de rãs em gaiolas de fibra de vidro. Ambientes com temperaturas de 25ºC e fotoperíodo de 12/12 horas de luz/horas de escuridão (h L/E) serviram para adaptação das rãs por 15 dias antes de cada experimento. Os tratamentos consistiram em simular ambientes com temperaturas variando de 20 a 35ºC e fotoperíodos de 8/16, 12/12 e 16/8 h L/E. Foram realizados experimentos com rã-touro (Rana catesbeiana Shaw, 1802) e rã-manteiga (Leptodactylus ocellatus Linnaeus, 1758). Nessas estufas foi possível estimar que: a) os maiores ganhos de peso de rã-touro foram obtidos entre 27,6 e 29,7ºC, com melhor crescimento entre 28,2 e 30,1ºC; para rã-manteiga os melhores ganhos e conversão alimentar foram observados a 28,6 e 28ºC, respectivamente; b) a temperatura interage com fotoperíodo sobre o desempenho das rãs e seu desenvolvimento gonadal; c) a 27,7ºC (temperatura de conforto térmico) haverá menos rãs dentro d'água; d) a maior temperatura cloacal de rã-touro, 32,1ºC no seco e 33,8ºC dentro d'água, a 35ºC, evidenciou que as rãs se termorregulam; e) os níveis de tetraiodotironina (T4) no plasma decrescem na temperatura de conforto térmico; f) rã-manteiga condiciona-se ao manejo de rotina, reunindo-se ao redor do cocho na hora da alimentação.

Modeling grouped survival data with time-dependent covariates

In this article, proportional hazards and logistic models for grouped survival data were extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates. The extension was motivated by a forestry experiment designed to compare five different water stresses in Eucalyptus grandis seedlings. The response was the seedling lifetime. The data set was grouped since there were just three occasions in which the seedlings was visited by the researcher. In each of these occasions also the shoot height was measured and therefore it is a time-dependent covariate. Both extended models were used in this example, and the results were very similar.