Stern review: la economía del cambio climático. Resumen de las conclusiones (Archivos)

Las pruebas científicas son hoy en día incuestionables: el cambio climático constituye una seria amenaza mundial, que exige urgentemente una respuesta asimismo mundial. Esta revisión ha examinado una amplia gama de datos sobre las repercusiones del cambio climático y sobre sus costes económicos, habiendo utilizado diversas técnicas para la evaluación de dichos costes y riesgos. Teniendo todo ello en cuenta, la evidencia recogida en la revisión nos lleva a una clara conclusión: los beneficios de la adopción de medidas prontas y firmes superará con creces los costes económicos de la pasividad.

Hacia la definición de una línea de codicia: aportes conceptuales y empíricos sobre América Latina y Ecuador

Este ensayo presenta una discusión conceptual sobre la línea de codicia, definida como el nivel máximo de consumo personal éticamente aceptable en la economía global contemporánea, caracterizada simultáneamente por la privación de las necesidades humana de una proporción importante de la población mundial, una elevada inequidad, un crecimiento no sustentable y un elevado consumo suntuario. El análisis parte de una visión empírica sobre pobreza, inequidad social y sustentabilidad a escala mundial, en América Latina, y en particular en el Ecuador, tomado como estudio de caso. Sobre esta base, se discute distintas visiones teóricas sobre la relación entre consumo, bienestar y sustentabilidad, con énfasis en la visión neoclásica dominante y sus críticas. Por último, se presentan algunos elementos conceptuales para la definición de una línea de codicia, en función la pobreza, inequidad y sustentabilidad.

Model selection for the mixed logit with Bayesian estimation

In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) using Bayesian methods was employed to examine willingness-to-pay (WTP) to consume bread produced with reduced levels of pesticides so as to ameliorate environmental quality, from data generated by a choice experiment. Model comparison used the marginal likelihood, which is preferable for Bayesian model comparison and testing. Models containing constant and random parameters for a number of distributions were considered, along with models in ‘preference space’ and ‘WTP space’ as well as those allowing for misreporting. We found: strong support for the ML estimated in WTP space; little support for fixing the price coefficient a common practice advocated and adopted in the environmental economics literature; and, weak evidence for misreporting.

Spatial and temporal modeling of community non-timber forest extraction

This paper examines the interaction of spatial and dynamic aspects of resource extraction from forests by local people. Highly cyclical and varied across space and time, the patterns of resource extraction resulting from the spatial–temporal model bear little resemblance to the patterns drawn from focusing either on spatial or temporal aspects of extraction alone. Ignoring this variability inaccurately depicts villagers’ dependence on different parts of the forest and could result in inappropriate policies. Similarly, the spatial links in extraction decisions imply that policies imposed in one area can have unintended consequences in other areas. Combining the spatial–temporal model with a measure of success in community forest management—the ability to avoid open-access resource degradation—characterizes the impact of incomplete property rights on patterns of resource extraction and stocks.

Emerging agricultural hydrology problems in post-conflict Libya

This paper develops a conceptual framework for analyzing emerging agricultural hydrology problems in post-conflict Libya. Libya is one of the most arid regions on the planet. Thus, as well as substantial political and social changes, post-conflict Libyan administrators are confronted with important hydrological issues in Libya’s emerging water-landuse complex. This paper presents a substantial background to the water-land-use problem in Libya; reviews previous work in Libya and elsewhere on water-land-use issues and water-land-use conflicts in the dry and arid zones; outlines a conceptual framework for fruitful research interventions; and details the results of a survey conducted on Libyan farmers’ water usage, perceptions of emerging water-land-use conflicts and the appropriate value one should place on agricultural-use hydrological resources in Libya. Extensions are discussed.

Structure, conduct and the stochastic volatility of food markets: theory and empirics

The relationship between price volatility and competition is examined. Atheoretic, vector auto regressions on farm prices of wheat and retail prices of derivatives (flour, bread, pasta, bulgur and cookies) are compared to results from a dynamic, simultaneous-equations model with theory-based farm-to-retail linkages. Analytical results yield insights about numbers of firms and their impacts on demand- and supply-side multipliers, but the applications to Turkish time series (1988:1-1996:12) yield mixed results.

Natural disaster accounting bias and its equivalence across genetic resource stocks

Two sources of bias arise in conventional loss predictions in the wake of natural disasters. One source of bias stems from neglect of accounting for animal genetic resource loss. A second source of bias stems from failure to identify, in addition to the direct effects of such loss, the indirect effects arising from implications impacting animal-human interactions. We argue that, in some contexts, the magnitude of bias imputed by neglecting animal genetic resource stocks is substantial. We show, in addition, and contrary to popular belief, that the biases attributable to losses in distinct genetic resource stocks are very likely to be the same. We derive the formal equivalence across the distinct resource stocks by deriving an envelope result in a model that forms the mainstay of enquiry in subsistence farming and we validate the theory, empirically, in a World-Society-for-the-Protection-of-Animals application

New visions for addressing sustainability

Attaining sustainability will require concerted interactive efforts among disciplines, many of which have not yet recognized, and internalized, the relevance of environmental issues to their main intellectual discourse. The inability of key scientific disciplines to engage interactively is an obstacle to the actual attainment of sustainability. For example, in the list of Millennium Development Coals from the United Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 2002, the seventh of the eight goals, to "ensure environmental sustainability," is presented separately from the parallel goals of reducing fertility and poverty, improving gains in equity, improving material conditions, and enhancing population health. A more integrated and consilient approach to sustainability is urgently needed.

Sustainability and health : supporting global ecological integrity in public health

Radical changes in the biosphere and human interaction with the environment are increasingly impacting on the health of populations across the world. Diseases are crossing the species barrier, and spreading rapidly through globalized transport systems. From new patterns of cancer to the threat of global pandemics, it is imperative that public health practitioners acknowledge the interdependence between the sustainability of the environment and the sustainability of the human species.* Why are issues of global and local sustainability of increasing importance to the public's health?* Why do issues of sustainability require new practices within the professions of public health?* How can future and current public health practitioners develop those new practices?Drawing on scientific evidence of global and local environmental changes, Sustainability and Health offers a thorough background and practical solutions to the overlapping issues in environment and health. It examines potential and existing responses to global and local environment and health issues, involving individuals, community, industry and government. The authors introduce a range of emerging conceptual frameworks and theoretical perspectives, link IT and epidemiology and explain how scoping can link program design, delivery, data collection and evaluation in projects from their very beginning. Public health practitioners need to be able to manage health issues that cut across environmental, economic and social systems and to develop the capacity for leadership in facilitating change. Incorporating learning activities, readings, international case studies and an open learning approach, this is a valuable resource for students of public and environmental health, as well as medical, environmental and health science professionals.

Australia's green economic potential

This Centre for Policy Development briefing paper looks at the issues raised in the Green Economy Report from an Australian perspective and provides a primer to the challenges involved in transforming our economy to operate within environmental limits. It also examines the opportunities of embracing sustainable economic policy solutions in four areas: water, energy, cities and urban transport, and waste management and recycling.

Shared beliefs, expectations and surprises: adaptation decisions of village tank farmers in Sri Lanka

This study examined adaptation decisions of village tank farmers in Sri Lanka, focusing on how commonly held beliefs on local rainfall influence their adaptation choices. Findings suggest that farmers’ have shared beliefs consistent with local pattern of rainfall variability that help to explain short-, medium- and long-term decisions of adaptation.