The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent: scale interactions and modelling

The Maritime Continent archipelago, situated on the equator at 95-165E, has the strongest land-based precipitation on Earth. The latent heat release associated with the rainfall affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and into the extra-tropics. The greatest source of variability in precipitation is the diurnal cycle. The archipelago is within the convective region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which provides the greatest variability on intra-seasonal time scales: large-scale (∼10^7 km^2) active and suppressed convective envelopes propagate slowly (∼5 m s^-1) eastwards between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High-resolution satellite data show that a strong diurnal cycle is triggered to the east of the advancing MJO envelope, leading the active MJO by one-eighth of an MJO cycle (∼6 days). Where the diurnal cycle is strong its modulation accounts for 81% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Over land this determines the structure of the diagnosed MJO. This is consistent with the equatorial wave dynamics in existing theories of MJO propagation. The MJO also affects the speed of gravity waves propagating offshore from the Maritime Continent islands. This is largely consistent with changes in static stability during the MJO cycle. The MJO and its interaction with the diurnal cycle are investigated in HiGEM, a high-resolution coupled model. Unlike many models, HiGEM represents the MJO well with eastward-propagating variability on intra-seasonal time scales at the correct zonal wavenumber, although the inter-tropical convergence zone's precipitation peaks strongly at the wrong time, interrupting the MJO's spatial structure. However, the modelled diurnal cycle is too weak and its phase is too early over land. The modulation of the diurnal amplitude by the MJO is also too weak and accounts for only 51% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Implications for forecasting and possible causes of the model errors are discussed, and further modelling studies are proposed.

Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle in a high-resolution GCM

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the chief source of tropical intra-seasonal variability, but is simulated poorly by most state-of-the-art GCMs. Common errors include a lack of eastward propagation at the correct frequency and zonal extent, and too small a ratio of eastward- to westward-propagating variability. Here it is shown that HiGEM, a high-resolution GCM, simulates a very realistic MJO with approximately the correct spatial and temporal scale. Many MJO studies in GCMs are limited to diagnostics which average over a latitude band around the equator, allowing an analysis of the MJO’s structure in time and longitude only. In this study a wider range of diagnostics is applied. It is argued that such an approach is necessary for a comprehensive analysis of a model’s MJO. The standard analysis of Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132(8):1917–1932, 2004; WH04) is applied to produce composites, which show a realistic spatial structure in the MJO envelopes but for the timing of the peak precipitation in the inter-tropical convergence zone, which bifurcates the MJO signal. Further diagnostics are developed to analyse the MJO’s episodic nature and the “MJO inertia” (the tendency to remain in the same WH04 phase from one day to the next). HiGEM favours phases 2, 3, 6 and 7; has too much MJO inertia; and dies out too frequently in phase 3. Recent research has shown that a key feature of the MJO is its interaction with the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent. This interaction is present in HiGEM but is unrealistically weak.

Concepts for a geostationary-like polar missions

An evidence-led scientific case for development of a space-based polar remote sensing platform at geostationary-like (GEO-like) altitudes is developed through methods including a data user survey. Whilst a GEO platform provides a nearstatic perspective, multiple platforms are required to provide circumferential coverage. Systems for achieving GEO-like polar observation likewise require multiple platforms however the perspective is non-stationery. A key choice is between designs that provide complete polar view from a single platform at any given instant, and designs where this is obtained by compositing partial views from multiple sensors. Users foresee an increased challenge in extracting geophysical information from composite images and consider the use of non-composited images advantageous. Users also find the placement of apogee over the pole to be preferable to the alternative scenarios. Thus, a clear majority of data users find the “Taranis” orbit concept to be better than a critical inclination orbit, due to the improved perspective offered. The geophysical products that would benefit from a GEO-like polar platform are mainly estimated from radiances in the visible/near infrared and thermal parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, which is consistent with currently proven technologies from GEO. Based on the survey results, needs analysis, and current technology proven from GEO, scientific and observation requirements are developed along with two instrument concepts with eight and four channels, based on Flexible Combined Imager heritage. It is found that an operational system could, mostly likely, be deployed from an Ariane 5 ES to a 16-hour orbit, while a proof-of-concept system could be deployed from a Soyuz launch to the same orbit.

Latitudinal gradients in butterfly population variability are influenced by landscape heterogeneity

The variability of populations over time is positively associated with their risk of local extinction. Previous work has shown that populations at the high-latitude boundary of species’ ranges show higher inter-annual variability, consistent with increased sensitivity and exposure to adverse climatic conditions. However, patterns of population variability at both high- and low-latitude species range boundaries have not yet been concurrently examined. Here, we assess the inter-annual population variability of 28 butterfly species between 1994 and 2009 at 351 and 18 sites in the United Kingdom and Catalonia, Spain, respectively. Local population variability is examined with respect to the position of the species’ bioclimatic envelopes (i.e. whether the population falls within areas of the ‘core’ climatic suitability or is a climatically ‘marginal’ population), and in relation to local landscape heterogeneity, which may influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. We found that butterfly species consistently show latitudinal gradients in population variability, with increased variability in the more northerly UK. This pattern is even more marked for southerly distributed species with ‘marginal’ climatic suitability in the UK but ‘core’ climatic suitability in Catalonia. In addition, local landscape heterogeneity did influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. Habitat heterogeneity was associated with dampened population dynamics, especially for populations in the UK. Our results suggest that promoting habitat heterogeneity may promote the persistence of populations at high-latitude range boundaries, which may potentially aid northwards expansion under climate warming. We did not find evidence that population variability increases towards southern range boundaries. Sample sizes for this region were low, but there was tentative evidence, in line with previous ecological theory, that local landscape heterogeneity may promote persistence in these retracting low-latitude range boundary populations.

Grafisk profilering och identitetsskapande

This degree project has been done in parallel to the advertising agency Hera in Uppsala, and containsthe creating of a logotype and graphic profile for Aircall, a new big chain of shops dealing with telecommunication.Aircall was found 1 February 2004, when three smaller companies became one. Thisnew company were in need of a common brand and a uniform profile. The created graphic profile hasbeen applied to visiting cards, letterhead, envelopes, letter cards, bags, cars and advertisement. Thegraphic profile has also been used when designing the shop interior end exterior. Research has beendone on competitors graphic profiles and advertisement. The project also contains a deepening in corporateidentity.

Grafisk profilering som en del avvarumärkesarbetet

A strong brand can help a company to be easier to recognize and be remembered by their customers. Part of branding is to create a visual appearance which is called a graphic profile and contains information on for instance a logo, colours or typography.The objective of this thesis was to create a graphic profile for Stjørdal Tannhelsesenter that could serve as a base for a brand work in the future. It was important to analyze how the clinic wants to be perceived and how it is perceived today. The methods used to carry out this study were questionnaires, researches and a focus group.The work resulted in the generation of a graphic profile that included a new logo, colours, decorative elements, fonts, templates for stationery, business card / badge, imagery, and examples of some publications.According to the test which was made to examine the results of the project showed that I was successful and that the new design meets all the requests from the previous questionnaires.

Acceptability of home-assessment post medical abortion and medical abortion in a low-resource setting in Rajasthan, India : Secondary outcome analysis of a non-inferiority randomized controlled trial

Background: Studies evaluating acceptability of simplified follow-up after medical abortion have focused on high-resource or urban settings where telephones, road connections, and modes of transport are available and where women have formal education. Objective: To investigate women's acceptability of home-assessment of abortion and whether acceptability of medical abortion differs by in-clinic or home-assessment of abortion outcome in a low-resource setting in India. Design: Secondary outcome of a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial. Setting Outpatient primary health care clinics in rural and urban Rajasthan, India. Population: Women were eligible if they sought abortion with a gestation up to 9 weeks, lived within defined study area and agreed to follow-up. Women were ineligible if they had known contraindications to medical abortion, haemoglobin < 85mg/l and were below 18 years. Methods: Abortion outcome assessment through routine clinic follow-up by a doctor was compared with home-assessment using a low-sensitivity pregnancy test and a pictorial instruction sheet. A computerized random number generator generated the randomisation sequence (1: 1) in blocks of six. Research assistants randomly allocated eligible women who opted for medical abortion (mifepristone and misoprostol), using opaque sealed envelopes. Blinding during outcome assessment was not possible. Main outcome measures: Women's acceptability of home-assessment was measured as future preference of follow-up. Overall satisfaction, expectations, and comparison with previous abortion experiences were compared between study groups. Results: 731 women were randomized to the clinic follow-up group (n = 353) or home-assessment group (n = 378). 623 (85%) women were successfully followed up, of those 597 (96%) were satisfied and 592 (95%) found the abortion better or as expected, with no difference between study groups. The majority, 355 (57%) women, preferred home-assessment in the event of a future abortion. Significantly more women, 284 (82%), in the home-assessment group preferred home-assessment in the future, as compared with 188 (70%) of women in the clinic follow-up group, who preferred clinic follow-up in the future (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Home-assessment is highly acceptable among women in low-resource, and rural, settings. The choice to follow-up an early medical abortion according to women's preference should be offered to foster women's reproductive autonomy.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

O menino é o pai do homem: raízes crianceiras do conhecimento

This dissertation is a work on playing and its relation with the knowledge production process. It is the result of a set of personal experiences with the cultural universe of children which have instigated a look into the way they explore the world and questions about the very nature of the games they play. Could we consider those games hide, or rather reveal important strategies used in the knowledge production process and in making science. In light of several studies concerning the complexity of science, this questioning has also led to the development of a toy (a box), which consists of a range of pieces (photos, video, audio, stones, seeds, rags, envelopes, etc.). My intention is to show in a practical manner a strategy of thinking similar to the sensitive logic bricolage present in the playing, in order to instigate the reflection on the possibility of its inclusion in the production of the knowledge and science making processes

Morfologia em alta resolução espacial de estrelas de tipo Mira e R Corenae Borealis

Mira and R Coronae Borealis (R CrB) variable stars are evolved objects surrounded by circumstellar envelopes (CSE) composed of the ejected stellar material. We present a detailed high-spatial resolution morfological study of the CSE of three stars: IRC+10216, the closest and more studied Carbon-Rich Mira; o Ceti, the prototype of the Mira class; and RY Sagitarii (RY Sgr), the brightest R CrB variable of the south hemisphere. JHKL near-infrared adaptive optics images of IRC+10216 with high dynamic range and Vband images with high angular resolution and high depth, collected with the VLT/NACO and VLT/FORS1 instruments, were analyzed. NACO images of o Ceti were also analyzed. Interferometric observations of RY Sgr collected with the VLTI/MIDI instrument allowed us to explore its CSE innermost regions (»20 40 mas). The CSE of IRC+10216 exhibit, in near-infrared, clumps with more complex relative displacements than proposed in previous studies. In V-band, the majority of the non-concentric shells, located in the outer CSE layers, seem to be composed of thinner elongated shells. In a global view, the morphological connection between the shells and the bipolar core of the nebulae, located in the outer layers, together with the clumps, located in the innermost regions, has a difficult interpretation. In the CSE of o Ceti, preliminar results would be indicating the presence of possible clumps. In the innermost regions (.110 UA) of the CSE of RY Sgr, two clouds were detected in different epochs, embedded in a variable gaussian envelope. Based on a rigorous verification, the first cloud was located at »100 R¤ (or »30 AU) from the centre, toward the east-north-east direction (modulo 180o) and the second one was almost at a perpendicular direction, having aproximately 2£ the distance of the first cloud. This study introduces new constraints to the mass-loss history of these kind of variables and to the morphology of their innermost CSE regions

O enigmático problema das gigantes ricas em Lítio e as perspectivas com o satélite Kepler

Lithium (Li) is a chemical element with atomic number 3 and it is among the lightest known elements in the universe. In general, the Lithium is found in the nature under the form of two stable isotopes, the 6Li and 7Li. This last one is the most dominant and responds for about 93% of the Li found in the Universe. Due to its fragileness this element is largely used in the astrophysics, especially in what refers to the understanding of the physical process that has occurred since the Big Bang going through the evolution of the galaxies and stars. In the primordial nucleosynthesis in the Big Bang moment (BBN), the theoretical calculation forecasts a Li production along with all the light elements such as Deuterium and Beryllium. To the Li the BNB theory reviews a primordial abundance of Log log ǫ(Li) =2.72 dex in a logarithmic scale related to the H. The abundance of Li found on the poor metal stars, or pop II stars type, is called as being the abundance of Li primordial and is the measure as being log ǫ(Li) =2.27 dex. In the ISM (Interstellar medium), that reflects the current value, the abundance of Lithium is log ǫ(Li) = 3.2 dex. This value has great importance for our comprehension on the chemical evolution of the galaxy. The process responsible for the increasing of the primordial value present in the Li is not clearly understood until nowadays. In fact there is a real contribution of Li from the giant stars of little mass and this contribution needs to be well streamed if we want to understand our galaxy. The main objection in this logical sequence is the appearing of some giant stars with little mass of G and K spectral types which atmosphere is highly enriched with Li. Such elevated values are exactly the opposite of what could happen with the typical abundance of giant low mass stars, where convective envelops pass through a mass deepening in which all the Li should be diluted and present abundances around log ǫ(Li) ∼1.4 dex following the model of stellar evolution. In the Literature three suggestions are found that try to reconcile the values of the abundance of Li theoretical and observed in these rich in Li giants, but any of them bring conclusive answers. In the present work, we propose a qualitative study of the evolutionary state of the rich in Li stars in the literature along with the recent discovery of the first star rich in Li observed by the Kepler Satellite. The main objective of this work is to promote a solid discussion about the evolutionary state based on the characteristic obtained from the seismic analysis of the object observed by Kepler. We used evolutionary traces and simulation done with the population synthesis code TRILEGAL intending to evaluate as precisely as possible the evolutionary state of the internal structure of these groups of stars. The results indicate a very short characteristic time when compared to the evolutionary scale related to the enrichment of these stars

Gravitational Capture of Asteroids by Gas Drag

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Follicular epithelium, theca and egg envelope formation in Serrasalmus spilopleura (Teleostei, Characiformes, Characidae)

The follicular epithelium and theca of oocytes in Serrasalmus spilopleura differentiates during the initial primary growth phase. The follicular cells are squamous and the thecal cells are disposed in two layers. During the secondary growth phase, follicular cells become cuboidal, acquire characteristics typical of protein- or glycoprotein-producing cells, and show dilated intercellular spaces. Formation of the egg envelope in S. spilopleura begins in the previtellogenic oocytes as a layer of amorphous electron-dense material is laid down on the oolemma. During vitellogenesis, another layer of electron-dense material appears beneath the first layer. Also during this phase, a layer of amorphous, less electron-dense material is formed adjacent to the follicular epithelium. The secondary egg envelope appears at the postvitellogenic phase and is composed of a filamentous and undulant material. The morphology of the egg envelopes in S. spilopleura reflects not only its oviparous nature but also the fact that its eggs are adhesive.

Storage in cerrado soil and germination of Psychotria vellosiana (Rubiaceae) seeds

The regeneration of plant communities from seed depends, to a large extent, on the capacity of the seed remaining viable in the soil. The viability and germination of artificially buried Psychotria vellosiana seeds in cerrado soil were studied, with the purpose of discovering some physio-ecological aspects of dispersed seeds and evaluating their potential to constitute a soil seed bank. Seed samples were placed in nylon envelopes and buried in the soil of a Cerrado reserve at two different depths and sites. Buried seeds were retrieved periodically and tested for germination along with dry-stored seeds. In general, there was a reduction in seed germination with storage time, both in soil and dry stored conditions, and in some assays exhumed seeds germinated faster than dry stored ones. In general the soil storage favoured seed viability of ungerminated seeds as compared to dry stored ones, with the seeds remaining partially viable after 10 months of storage. The lack of germination of viable seeds suggests that seeds showed true dormancy and/or required an extended time to germinate. It was observed that some seeds had germinated while buried and such in situ germination tended to increase with rainfall. The water availability in the soil might be a limiting factor for successful germination of P. vellosiana in the field, and the seeds may constitute a persistent soil seed bank in the cerrado as dispersed seeds remain viable in the soil until the following period of seed dispersal.

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).