Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

A Bilevel Approach to Transmission Expansion Planning Within a Market Environment

We present a bilevel model for transmission expansion planning within a market environment, where producers and consumers trade freely electric energy through a pool. The target of the transmission planner, modeled through the upper-level problem, is to minimize network investment cost while facilitating energy trading. This upper-level problem is constrained by a collection of lower-level market clearing problems representing pool trading, and whose individual objective functions correspond to social welfare. Using the duality theory the proposed bilevel model is recast as a mixed-integer linear programming problem, which is solvable using branch-and-cut solvers. Detailed results from an illustrative example and a case study are presented and discussed. Finally, some relevant conclusions are drawn.

Planning and Projects of Secondary Electric Power Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a methodology to achieve integrated planning and projects for secondary distribution circuits. The planning model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to resolve this problem, a tabu search (TS) algorithm is used, with a neighborhood structure developed to explore the physical characteristics of specific geographies included in the planning and expansion of secondary networks, thus obtaining effective solutions as well as low operating costs and investments. The project stage of secondary circuits consists of calculating the mechanical efforts to determine the support structures of the primary and secondary distribution systems and determining the types of structures that should be used in the system according to topological and electrical parameters of the network and, therefore, accurately assessing the costs involved in the construction and/or reform of secondary systems. A constructive heuristic based on information of the electrical and topological conditions between the medium voltage and low voltage systems is used to connect the primary systems and secondary circuits. The results obtained from planning and design simulations of a real secondary system of electric energy distribution are presented.

Primary power distribution systems planning taking into account reliability, operation and expansion costs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Power system transmission network expansion planning using AC model

An optimisation technique to solve transmission network expansion planning problem, using the AC model, is presented. This is a very complex mixed integer nonlinear programming problem. A constructive heuristic algorithm aimed at obtaining an excellent quality solution for this problem is presented. An interior point method is employed to solve nonlinear programming problems during the solution steps of the algorithm. Results of the tests, carried out with three electrical energy systems, show the capabilities of the method and also the viability of using the AC model to solve the problem.

A constructive heuristic algorithm to Short Term Transmission Network Expansion Planning

In this paper a method for solving the Short Term Transmission Network Expansion Planning (STTNEP) problem is presented. The STTNEP is a very complex mixed integer nonlinear programming problem that presents a combinatorial explosion in the search space. In this work we present a constructive heuristic algorithm to find a solution of the STTNEP of excellent quality. In each step of the algorithm a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit (transmission line or transformer) to the system. This sensitivity index is obtained solving the STTNEP problem considering as a continuous variable the number of circuits to be added (relaxed problem). The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through an interior points method that uses a combination of the multiple predictor corrector and multiple centrality corrections methods, both belonging to the family of higher order interior points method (HOIPM). Tests were carried out using a modified Carver system and the results presented show the good performance of both the constructive heuristic algorithm to solve the STTNEP problem and the HOIPM used in each step.

Planning of secondary distribution circuits through evolutionary algorithms

In this work, the planning of secondary distribution circuits is approached as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to solve this problem, a dedicated evolutionary algorithm (EA) is proposed. This algorithm uses a codification scheme, genetic operators, and control parameters, projected and managed to consider the specific characteristics of the secondary network planning. The codification scheme maps the possible solutions that satisfy the requirements in order to obtain an effective and low-cost projected system-the conductors' adequate dimensioning, load balancing among phases, and the transformer placed at the center of the secondary system loads. An effective algorithm for three-phase power flow is used as an auxiliary methodology of the EA for the calculation of the fitness function proposed for solutions of each topology. Results for two secondary distribution circuits are presented, whereas one presents radial topology and the other a weakly meshed topology. © 2005 IEEE.

Urban sprawl and energy use for transportation in the largest Brazilian cities

A study of the relationships between the amount of energy consumed for transportation purposes and a few selected variables related to urban form and socioeconomic characteristics of some of the largest Brazilian cities is conducted in this work. The studied cities include all 27 state capitals regardless of their size and population and 184 urban areas each with more than 20,000 inhabitants located in the state of São Paulo. Two different techniques were applied for data analyses: a more traditional regression analysis approach and artificial neural networks. In general, the results found in the analyses conducted here support the assumption that urban sprawl increases the energy use for transportation. In the case of the 27 state capitals, the analysis indicated that two spatial variables have a strong impact on the energy consumed for urban transportation: urban density and the ratio between the longest distances in the east-west and north-south directions. In the case of the 184 urbanized areas we also reached a similar conclusion. In that case, however, income and employment level apparently have a stronger influence on the amount of energy consumed. The results of the present study stress the importance of physical planning in developing country cities in order to reduce energy use for transportation. © 2007 International Energy Initiative, Inc.

Mathematical optimisation techniques applied to power system operation and planning

Nowadays, power system operation becomes more complex because of the critical operating conditions resulting from the requirements of a market-driven operation. In this context, efficient methods for optimisation of power system operation and planning become critical to satisfy the operational (technical), financial and economic demands. Therefore, the detailed analysis of modern optimisation techniques as well as their application to the power system problems represent a relevant issue from the scientific and technological points of view. This paper presents a brief overview of the developments on modern mathematical optimisation methods applied to power system operation and planning. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Heuristic algorithm to solve the short term transmission network expansion planning

In this paper, a method for solving the short term transmission network expansion planning problem is presented. This is a very complex mixed integer nonlinear programming problem that presents a combinatorial explosion in the search space. In order to And a solution of excellent quality for this problem, a constructive heuristic algorithm is presented in this paper. In each step of the algorithm, a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit (transmission line or transformer) or a capacitor bank (fixed or variable) to the system. This sensitivity index is obtained solving the problem considering the numbers of circuits and capacitors banks to be added (relaxed problem), as continuous variables. The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through a higher order interior point method. The paper shows results of several tests that were performed using three well-known electric energy systems in order to show the possibility and the advantages of using the AC model. ©2007 IEEE.

Urban heat islands and electrical energy consumption

This study proposes the development of thermal and energy consumption maps to generate useful planning information. A residential neighbourhood in a medium-sized city was selected as the study area. In this area, 40 points were taken as urban reference points where air temperatures at the pedestrian level were collected. At the same time, rural temperatures made available by the city meteorological station were registered. Data of electrical energy consumption of the building units (houses and apartments) were collected through a household survey that was also designed to identify the users' income levels. Then, maps were developed so that the configuration of urban heat islands and electrical energy consumption could be visualised, compared and analysed. The results showed that the income level was the most important variable influencing electrical energy consumption. However, a strong relationship of the consumption with the thermal environment was also observed.

Distribution network planning using a constructive heuristic algorithm

An optimization technique to solve distribution network planning (DNP) problem is presented. This is a very complex mixed binary nonlinear programming problem. A constructive heuristic algorithm (CHA) aimed at obtaining an excellent quality solution for this problem is presented. In each step of the CHA, a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit or a substation to the distribution network. This sensitivity index is obtained solving the DNP problem considering the numbers of circuits and substations to be added as continuous variables (relaxed problem). The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through an efficient nonlinear optimization solver. A local improvement phase and a branching technique were implemented in the CHA. Results of two tests using a distribution network are presented in the paper in order to show the ability of the proposed algorithm. ©2009 IEEE.

A specialized genetic algorithm to solve the short term transmission network expansion planning

In this paper, the short term transmission network expansion planning (STTNEP) is solved through a specialized genetic algorithm (SGA). A complete AC model of the transmission network is used, which permits the formulation of an integrated power system transmission network expansion planning problem (real and reactive power planning). The characteristics of the proposed SGA to solve the STTNEP problem are detailed and an interior point method is employed to solve nonlinear programming problems during the solution steps of the SGA. Results of tests carried out with two electrical energy systems show the capabilities of the SGA and also the viability of using the AC model to solve the STTNEP problem. © 2009 IEEE.

Contribution of energy services to the Millennium Development Goals and to poverty alleviation in Latin America and the Caribbean: executive summary

Includes bibliography

Contribution of energy services to the millennium development goals and to poverty alleviation in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography