977 resultados para Elicitation, Expert Opinion, Regression


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Concern that European forest biodiversity is depleted and declining has provoked widespread efforts to improve management practices. To gauge the success of these actions, appropriate monitoring of forest ecosystems is paramount. Multi-species indicators are frequently used to assess the state of biodiversity and its response to implemented management, but generally applicable and objective methodologies for species' selection are lacking. Here we use a niche-based approach, underpinned by coarse quantification of species' resource use, to objectively select species for inclusion in a pan-European forest bird indicator. We identify both the minimum number of species required to deliver full resource coverage and the most sensitive species' combination, and explore the trade-off between two key characteristics, sensitivity and redundancy, associated with indicators comprising different numbers of species. We compare our indicator to an existing forest bird indicator selected on the basis of expert opinion and show it is more representative of the wider community. We also present alternative indicators for regional and forest type specific monitoring and show that species' choice can have a significant impact on the indicator and consequent projections about the state of the biodiversity it represents. Furthermore, by comparing indicator sets drawn from currently monitored species and the full forest bird community, we identify gaps in the coverage of the current monitoring scheme. We believe that adopting this niche-based framework for species' selection supports the objective development of multi-species indicators and that it has good potential to be extended to a range of habitats and taxa.

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In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. In line with existing literature, we bias-correct opinion polls. We consider accuracy, bias and precision over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to provide the most precise forecasts and are similar in terms of bias to opinion polls. We find that our statistical model struggles to provide competitive forecasts, while expert opinion appears to be of value. Finally we note that the forecast horizon matters; whereas prediction market forecasts tend to improve the nearer an election is, opinion polls appear to perform worse, while expert opinion performs consistently throughout. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets.

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General principles of climate change adaptation for biodiversity have been formulated, but do not help prioritize actions. This is inhibiting their integration into conservation planning. We address this need with a decision framework that identifies and prioritizes actions to increase the adaptive capacity of species. The framework classifies species according to their current distribution and projected future climate space, as a basis for selecting appropriate decision trees. Decisions rely primarily on expert opinion, with additional information from quantitative models, where data are available. The framework considers in-situ management, followed by interventions at the landscape scale and finally translocation or ex-situ conservation. Synthesis and applications: From eight case studies, the key interventions identified for integrating climate change adaptation into conservation planning were local management and expansion of sites. We anticipate that, in combination with consideration of socio-economic and local factors, the decision framework will be a useful tool for conservation and natural resource managers to integrate adaptation measures into conservation plans.

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This study analyses the impact of Information Technology used in the undergraduate course of Business Administration at Centro Superior de Vila Velha. The Information Technology considered in the study is computer connected to the Internet, projectors, televisions and VCRs. To support the analysis, a survey was conducted in three different groups: directors (shareholders, principal, dean and chairperson), faculty and students. A questionnaire was developed for each group and validated through discussions and critical reviews by the academic committee for of this study. Items and questions were explicitly defined from the literature and based on expert opinion to provide respondents with a common understanding of the questions. The questionnaire used in the directors group focused mainly on motivation and on the investment planning for Information Technology in the institution. For the faculty and student groups, the questionnaire focused on the extent to what the group use of IT for classes and assignments, and to what extent the faculty understands the availability of IT to be used. The instrument was sent each person, for directors and faculty, and applied during class for students. The results show that although faculty and students perceive Information Technology are important for research and as a tool in the teaching and learning process, the available IT in the institution has been used under its capacity of utilization.

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A intensa utilização da tecnologia da informação (TI) por todos os setores disseminou-se também na Administração Pública. A utilização da TI aliada à internet como ferramenta de gestão pública é denominada governo eletrônico e tem como objetivos qualificar melhor a prestação dos serviços e possibilitar aos cidadãos uma participação mais efetiva no processo político. O presente estudo buscou investigar o contexto do governo eletrônico no Brasil e apresenta um modelo de adoção baseado numa iniciativa de informatização de mecanismos de controle fiscal do Estado de São Paulo. O objetivo geral da tese foi estudar quais são os elementos que influenciam a utilização do governo eletrônico no Brasil, por meio de um estudo no programa Nota Fiscal Paulista (NFP). A metodologia envolveu técnicas do método qualitativo, pelo uso de opiniões de especialistas, associadas a procedimentos do método quantitativo, por meio de um survey aplicado em 715 usuários da NFP. A análise utilizou modelagem por equações estruturais. Os resultados contribuem para as pesquisas em TI, apresentando um modelo que reforça e amplia os estudos anteriores sobre adoção tecnológica e os estudos de governo eletrônico, acrescentando um modelo em um novo contexto ainda pouco explorado. No caso da NFP, os fatores testados e que influenciam no processo de adoção são: Benefício Percebido, Facilidade de Uso Percebida, Influências Sociais, Segurança Percebida, Confiança e Hábito. Em termos práticos, a pesquisa auxilia na compreensão da participação e do envolvimento dos cidadãos na fase atual de desenvolvimento de governo eletrônico no Brasil. Com melhor esclarecimento da influência dessa tecnologia na vida pessoal e profissional dos usuários, é possível elevar a qualidade da prestação dos serviços para atender às demandas da sociedade. Isto posto, auxilia também na implantação mais rápida do programa em outros contextos administrativos para o governo eletrônico, gerando informações úteis para os principais pontos a se considerar para ampliar a adesão dos cidadãos e ter mais chance de sucesso na implantação.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Introduction: Rheumatic fever (RF), a systemic illness that may occur following Group A beta-hemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) pharyngitis in children, is a major problem in countries with limited resources. Because of its long track record and low cost, an injection of benzathine penicillin G (BPG) suspension every 3 or 4 weeks has been used as secondary prophylaxis. Despite its excellent in vitro efficacy, the inability of BPG to eradicate GABHS has been frequently reported.Areas covered: This work reviews the possible causes of failure, as well as the inconvenience of the current prophylactic treatment of acute RF and suggests a new pharmacotherapeutic system that could replace the current one.Expert opinion: RF is a major problem concerning only countries with limited resources and could be considered as a neglected disease. The dose regimen using BPG suspension results in failures, which could be avoided by the use of nanocarrier-based systems. To meet this ultimate goal, the research should be transposed from the laboratory scale to an industrial and clinical application level. This research should be conducted to produce a pharmaceutical dosage form that will be commercially available, consumed by and affordable for patients. However, health, environmental and socioeconomic hazards should be considered.

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Importance of the field: The use of topical agents poses unique and challenging hurdles for drug delivery. Topical steroids effectively control ocular inflammation, but are associated with the well-recognized dilemma of patient compliance. Although administration of topical antimicrobials as prophylaxis is acceptable among ophthalmologists, this common practice has no sound evidence base Developing a new antimicrobial agent or delivery strategy with enhanced penetration by considering the anatomical and physiological constraints exerted by the barriers of the eye is not a commonly perceived strategy. Exploiting the permeability of the sclera, subconjunctival routes may offer a promising alternative for enhanced drug delivery and tissue targeting.Area covered in this review: Ocular drug delivery strategies were reviewed for ocular inflammation and infections clinically adopted for newer class of antimicrobials, which use a multipronged approach to limit risks of endophthalmitis.What the reader will gain: The analysis substantiates a new transscleral drug delivery therapeutic approach for cataract surgery.Take home message: A new anti-inflammatory and anti-infective paradigm that frees the patient from the nuisance of topical therapeutics is introduced, opening a large investigative avenue for future improved therapies.

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Background: Plants synthesise a vast repertoire of chemicals with various biological activities. Brazilian enormous botanical diversity facilitates the development of novel ethical drugs for the treatment of diseases in humans. Objective: To present therapeutic patent applications comprising Brazilian native plants published in the 2003 - 2008 period in light of legal aspects of patentability of biodiversity and public health concerns. Methods: Therapeutic patent applications related to Brazilian medicinal plants available at both the European Patent Office and the Brazilian National Institute of industrial Property databases were reviewed. Results/conclusion: Twenty-five patents are presented, most of which concern inflammatory, allergic, parasitic, infectious or digestive diseases, including extracts from Carapa guianensis, Copaifera genus, Cordia verbenacea, Erythrina mulungu, Physalis angulata and other pharmaceutical compositions with antileishmanial, antimalarial or trypanocidal activity. Brazilian research centres and universities are responsible for most of these inventions.

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Nicotine is an addictive drug like heroin, amphetamine or cocaine. Addiction to tobacco leads to significant failure rates in programmes for smoking cessation. The alpha(4)beta(2) and alpha(7) nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) and CB1 cannabinoid receptors play an important role in nicotine addiction.

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Urban children in Latin AmericaThis issue of Challenges addresses a topic deserving of special attention: the high proportion of children and adolescents in the region's urban areas who live in precarious conditions. Their disparate living conditions are examined with a look at the moderate deprivation (housing deficiencies, monetary poverty or low level of education) and severe deprivation (a combination of two or more of the aforementioned deficits) affecting urban dwellers. It is estimated that about 29.0% of children and adolescents in these areas live in conditions of severe deprivation and 27.6% experience moderate deprivation for an average of eight countries.In severely deprived rural and urban areas a higher proportion of children are not immunized against measles, and a greater percentage of adolescents are neither studying nor economically active, and are already parents.These disparities call for differentiated policies with a strong local focus and the potential to improve living conditions, lower the risk of infant morbidity and mortality, and reduce rates of adolescent pregnancy and school dropout. Significant initiatives and policies designed to produce healthy and inclusive environments have already been put in place in some of the most vulnerable areaswith a view to improving the quality of life among these groups.In addition to the featured article, the issue includes information on relevant meetings and conferences held in the region over the year, children's and adolescents' testimonies, and expert opinion.

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The digital divide exacerbates inequalities in access to information and knowledge, making it more difficult to socialize with peers and limiting awareness of and the ability to use basic tools for life in society. Reducing this gap sets in motion virtuous synergies of social and cultural inclusion for children and adolescents, facilitating skills development and generating lifelong opportunities. Although the younger generations are connected digital natives, inequalities persist among socioeconomic groups, though these have been tempered by connectivity programmes in public schools in the region. The main article of this edition of Challenges uses current information to examine the progress made and the gaps that remain in this area. Providing children and adolescents with access is merely a first step. They then need to be protected from the risks associated with information and communications technologies (ICTs), which must be harnessed for purposes of meaningful learning, promoting uses that are more in line with the educational curriculum. Lastly, the article posits that connectivity policies must be linked to the fulfilment of children’s rights in the framework of the Convention on the Rights of the Child. As is customary, this issue also contains information on meetings and conferences held in the region during the year and recent publications in this field. Mention is also made of good practices from Peru in reducing gender gaps and a joint initiative between mobile operators and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) to protect children in the digital age. Viewpoints includes expert opinion on the potential of ICTs as tools that can facilitate the exercise of the rights of children and adolescents, but also lead to violations of these rights.

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Introduction: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) consists of Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis and an unspecific IBD. The unclear etiology of IBD is a limiting factor that complicates the development of new pharmacological treatments and explains the high frequency of refractory patients to current drugs, including both conventional and biological therapies. In view of this, recent progress on the development of novel patented products to treat IBD was reviewed.Areas covered: Evaluation of the patent literature during the period 2013 - 2014 focused on chemical compounds, functional foods and biological therapy useful for the treatment of IBD.Expert opinion: Majority of the patents are not conclusive because they were based on data from unspecific methods not related to intestinal inflammation and, when related to IBD models, few biochemical and molecular evaluations that could be corroborating their use in human IBD were presented. On the other hand, methods and strategies using new formulations of conventional drugs, guanylyl cyclase C peptide agonists, compounds that influence anti-adhesion molecules, mAbs anti-type I interferons and anti-integrin, oligonucleotide antisense Smad7, growth factor neuregulin 4 and functional foods, particularly fermented wheat germ with Saccharomyces cerevisiae, are promising products for use in the very near future.

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There are few studies that evaluate the legal aspects, consent forms and ethical considerations facing implantology. This paper reviews and discusses the most important criteria in relation to the care of patients needing dental implants. Used the following databases: Medline (Pubmed), Dentistry Oral Science , Scielo, Athenas (Dissertation / Thesis), Digital Library of UNICAMP (Dissertation / Thesis), Digital Library of USP (Dissertation / Thesis) over the past 15 years . The inclusion and exclusion criteria were clinical articles, resulting from expert opinion on the subject of review and longitudinal follow-up who have studied or reported on the ethical aspects in implant dentistry; were excluded studies whose language was not English or Portuguese. Of a total of 52 articles and theses, after an analysis according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, 26 were selected. The literature shows that the safe practice of implantology is indispensable for the success of therapy. Respect the ethical, legal and make it explicit relationship with the patient (informed consent, information) are an important factor in the success of rehabilitative treatment. Since this treatment is long term, professional dental implant requires all documentation and clarity in time to offer treatment to the patient and professional expectations are met.

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Background: The identification of useful quality indicators for nutrition therapy (QINTs) is of great interest and a challenge. This study attempted to identify the 10 QINTs that best suit the practice of quality control in nutrition therapy (NT) by evaluating the opinion of experts in NT with the use of psychometric techniques and statistical tools. Methods: Thirty-six QINTs available for clinical application in Brazil were assessed in 2 distinct phases. In phase 1, 26 nutrition experts ranked QINTs by scoring 4 attributes (utility, simplicity, objectivity, low cost) to assess each QINT on a 5-point Likert scale. The top 10 QINTs were identified from the 10 best scores obtained, and the reliability of expert opinion for each indicator was assessed by Cronbach's alpha. In phase 2, experts provided feedback regarding the selected top 10 QINTs by answering 2 closed questions. Results: The top 10 QINTs, in descending order, are the frequency of nutrition screening of hospitalized patients, diarrhea, involuntary withdrawal of enteral feeding tubes, feeding tube obstruction, fasting longer than 24 hours, glycemic dysfunction, estimated energy expenditure and protein needs, central venous catheter infection, compliance of NT indication, and frequency of application of subjective global assessment. Opinions were consistent among the interviewed experts. During feedback, 96% of experts were satisfied with the top 10 QINTs, and 100% had considered them in accordance with their previous opinion. Conclusion: The top 10 QINTs were identified according to their usefulness in clinical practice by obtaining adequate agreement and representativeness of opinion of nutrition experts. (Nutr Clin Pract. 2012;27:261-267)