The effective management of geological risk in long-term production scheduling of open pit mines

Investment in mining projects, like most business investment, is susceptible to risk and uncertainty. The ability to effectively identify, assess and manage risk may enable strategic investments to be sheltered and operations to perform closer to their potential. In mining, geological uncertainty is seen as the major contributor to not meeting project expectations. The need to assess and manage geological risk for project valuation and decision-making translates to the need to assess and manage risk in any pertinent parameter of open pit design and production scheduling. This is achieved by taking geological uncertainty into account in the mine optimisation process. This thesis develops methods that enable geological uncertainty to be effectively modelled and the resulting risk in long-term production scheduling to be quantified and managed. One of the main accomplishments of this thesis is the development of a new, risk-based method for the optimisation of long-term production scheduling. In addition to maximising economic returns, the new method minimises the risk of deviating from production forecasts, given the understanding of the orebody. This ability represents a major advance in the risk management of open pit mining.

Studies in organobismuth chemistry

Perturbations in the bismuth market resulted in Mining and Chemical Products Ltd., seeking further outlets in the market. Together with Manchem Ltd. they were anxious to evaluate the possibility of using bismuth compounds as a replacement for lead/calcium soaps in paint driers. A range of new organobismuth compounds were synthesised of the type RBiX2 and R3BiX2 (X= halogen, OOCR, dithiocarbamate). A variety of synthetic techniques were explored, including the use of mathematical reactions, phase-transfer catalysis and microwave energy. The preparation of a range of trivalent and pentavalent organobismuth carboxylates is reported and their infra-red , 13C, lH nmr spectra. The compounds were evaluated as paint driers and in cases found to enhance paint drying to a greater degree than the standard driers, to which they were being compared. The drying times of paint films containing the organobismuth compounds are reported, together with a comparison of the drying times with the addition of bismuth tris-diethyldithiocarbamate, which may promote the cross-linking reaction that occur in paint films during the drying process. Examples are reported to illustrate the great reductions in reaction times possible when using microwave energy. Reactions such as metallation of aromatic rings, ligand redistribution and synthesis were carried out in PTFE containers in a conventional domestic microwave oven. An X-ray diffraction study of (phenylazophenyl-C,N')mercury(II) chloride has shown it to be dimeric via long Hg-Cl bridging interactions of 3.367A. Its crystal structure is reported, together with its 13C nmr spectra and mass spectrum. The Lewis acidity of compounds of the type RBiX2 was investigated. The donor group being anchored to the organo group (R). The dithiocarbamates bis- (diethyldithiobarbamato)phenylbismuth(Ill) and [2-2-pyridyl)phenylbismuth(III) were synthesised, and their crystal structures, 14N, 13C nmr ar1d infra-red spectra are reported. Both compounds are pseudo-pentagonal bipyramidal in geometry, with two long Bi-S bonds and two short Bi-S bonds. The reaction of RBiBr2 (R= 2-(pyridyl) with various ligands is reported. The infra-red evidence suggesting that the coordination of extra ligands is accompanied by a reduction of the strength of the Bi-interaction.

Auto plant closures, policy responses and labour market outcomes:a comparison of MG Rover in the UK and Mitsubishi in Australia

This paper provides a preliminary comparative longitudinal analysis of the impact on workers made redundant due to the closure of the Mitsubishi plant in Adelaide and the MG Rover plant in Birmingham. Longitudinal surveys of ex-workers from both firms were undertaken over a 12-month period in order to assess the process of labour market adjustment. In the Mitsubishi case, given the skills shortage the state of Adelaide was facing, together with the considerable growth in mining and defence industries, it would have been more appropriate if policy intervention had been redirected to further training or re-skilling opportunities for redundant workers. This opportunity was effectively missed and as a result more workers left the workforce, most notably for retirement, than could have otherwise been the case. The MG Rover case was seen as a more successful example of policy intervention, with greater funding assistance available and targeted support available, and with more emphasis on re-training needs to assist adjustment. However, despite the assistance offered and the rhetoric of successful adjustment in both cases, the majority of workers have nevertheless experienced deterioration in their circumstances particularly in the Australian case where casual and part-time work were often the only work that could be obtained. Even in the UK case, where more funding assistance was offered, a majority of workers reported a decline in earnings and a rise in job insecurity. This suggests that a reliance on the flexible labour market is insufficient to promote adjustment, and that more active policy intervention is needed especially in regard to further up-skilling.

Interval data without sign restrictions in DEA

Conventional DEA models assume deterministic, precise and non-negative data for input and output observations. However, real applications may be characterized by observations that are given in form of intervals and include negative numbers. For instance, the consumption of electricity in decentralized energy resources may be either negative or positive, depending on the heat consumption. Likewise, the heat losses in distribution networks may be within a certain range, depending on e.g. external temperature and real-time outtake. Complementing earlier work separately addressing the two problems; interval data and negative data; we propose a comprehensive evaluation process for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of DMUs in DEA. In our general formulation, the intervals may contain upper or lower bounds with different signs. The proposed method determines upper and lower bounds for the technical efficiency through the limits of the intervals after decomposition. Based on the interval scores, DMUs are then classified into three classes, namely, the strictly efficient, weakly efficient and inefficient. An intuitive ranking approach is presented for the respective classes. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the evaluation of bank branches. © 2013.

The Influence of Household Economic Status and Food Consumption Patterns on Obesity Rates in Peru – Evidence from a Field Study in 11 Communities of Madre de Dios

The globalization contributes to rapid economic developments and great changes of lifestyle in Madre de Dios of Peru, both of which have influenced the health status of local people in direct and indirect ways. The high overweight and obesity rate has become one of the biggest health challenges in this region. This study quantitatively analyzed the impact of household economic status and food consumption patterns on overweight and obesity, and tried to establish their relationship with local economic activities. People living in mining communities are more likely to be overweight or obese. Increased family incomes and lacks of health knowledge are two important reasons. The large consumption of soda and alcohol are positively associated with overweight and obesity. In addition, lack of physical activities is also one of the risk factors of overweight and obesity.

Automatic Identification of Large Fragments in a Pile of Broken Rock Using a Time-of-Flight Camera

This paper presents a solution to part of the problem of making robotic or semi-robotic digging equipment less dependant on human supervision. A method is described for identifying rocks of a certain size that may affect digging efficiency or require special handling. The process involves three main steps. First, by using range and intensity data from a time-of-flight (TOF) camera, a feature descriptor is used to rank points and separate regions surrounding high scoring points. This allows a wide range of rocks to be recognized because features can represent a whole or just part of a rock. Second, these points are filtered to extract only points thought to belong to the large object. Finally, a check is carried out to verify that the resultant point cloud actually represents a rock. Results are presented from field testing on piles of fragmented rock. Note to Practitioners—This paper presents an algorithm to identify large boulders in a pile of broken rock as a step towards an autonomous mining dig planner. In mining, piles of broken rock can contain large fragments that may need to be specially handled. To assess rock piles for excavation, we make use of a TOF camera that does not rely on external lighting to generate a point cloud of the rock pile. We then segment large boulders from its surface by using a novel feature descriptor and distinguish between real and false boulder candidates. Preliminary field experiments show promising results with the algorithm performing nearly as well as human test subjects.

International capital and new frontiers of biofuel production in brazilian midwest

v. 18, n.1, jan./mar. 2016.

The Influence of Healed Intrablock Rockmass Structure on the Behaviour of Deep Excavations in Complex Rockmasses

Conventional rockmass characterization and analysis methods for geotechnical assessment in mining, civil tunnelling, and other excavations consider only the intact rock properties and the discrete fractures that are present and form blocks within rockmasses. Field logging and classification protocols are based on historically useful but highly simplified design techniques, including direct empirical design and empirical strength assessment for simplified ground reaction and support analysis. As modern underground excavations go deeper and enter into more high stress environments with complex excavation geometries and associated stress paths, healed structures within initially intact rock blocks such as sedimentary nodule boundaries and hydrothermal veins, veinlets and stockwork (termed intrablock structure) are having an increasing influence on rockmass behaviour and should be included in modern geotechnical design. Due to the reliance on geotechnical classification methods which predate computer aided analysis, these complexities are ignored in conventional design. Given the comparatively complex, sophisticated and powerful numerical simulation and analysis techniques now practically available to the geotechnical engineer, this research is driven by the need for enhanced characterization of intrablock structure for application to numerical methods. Intrablock structure governs stress-driven behaviour at depth, gravity driven disintegration for large shallow spans, and controls ultimate fragmentation. This research addresses the characterization of intrablock structure and the understanding of its behaviour at laboratory testing and excavation scales, and presents new methodologies and tools to incorporate intrablock structure into geotechnical design practice. A new field characterization tool, the Composite Geological Strength Index, is used for outcrop or excavation face evaluation and provides direct input to continuum numerical models with implicit rockmass structure. A brittle overbreak estimation tool for complex rockmasses is developed using field observations. New methods to evaluate geometrical and mechanical properties of intrablock structure are developed. Finally, laboratory direct shear testing protocols for interblock structure are critically evaluated and extended to intrablock structure for the purpose of determining input parameters for numerical models with explicit structure.

Magnetização remanescente: um parâmetro crucial para a interpretação e modelamento de anomalias magnéticas em território brasileiro

A questão da magnetização remanescente na interpretação de anomalias magnéticas é frequentemente negligenciada, principalmente em função da dificuldade em se lidar com a mesma. Na maioria dos casos, tanto nos trabalhos acadêmicos quanto nos modelos que circulam nos meios profissionais da exploração mineral e de petróleo, assume-se que a magnetização remanescente é desprezível e utiliza-se apenas a induzida. O presente artigo mostra que o uso desse parâmetro é particularmente importante no tocante às anomalias magnéticas brasileiras, e procura fornecer subsídios para o uso desta informação. Discute-se o uso de duas técnicas consagradas, a Redução ao Pólo e o Sinal Analítico, em anomalias brasileiras com e sem magnetização remanescente. Mostramos a aplicação da técnica de determinação da magnetização total, permitindo que os modelos sejam construídos a partir da resultante da soma das magnetizações induzida e remanescente, e posteriormente apresentamos uma metodologia de uso da informação remanescente na datação das rochas fonte.

Reconciliação pró-ativa em empreendimentos mineiros

The common practice of reconciliation is based on definition of the mine call factor (MCF) and its application to resource or grade control estimates. The MCF expresses the difference, a ratio or percentage, between the predicted grade and the grade reported by the plant. Therefore, its application allows to correct future estimates. This practice is named reactive reconciliation. However the use of generic factors that are applied across differing time scales and material types often disguises the causes of the error responsible for the discrepancy. The root causes of any given variance can only be identified by analyzing the information behind any variance and, then, making changes to methodologies and processes. This practice is named prognostication, or proactive reconciliation, an iterative process resulting in constant recalibration of the inputs and the calculations. The prognostication allows personnel to adjust processes so that results align within acceptable tolerance ranges, and not only to correct model estimates. This study analyses the reconciliation practices performed at a gold mine in Brazil and suggests a new sampling protocol, based on prognostication concepts.

Efeitos da alteração do limite de exposição ocupacional à sílica cristalina no processo de seleção de respiradores.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the respiratory protective device selection process and to identify changes in this process when an exposure limit value is updated. Two previous studies conducted in mining industries in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo were put through the respiratory protective device selection process. The protection factors of the equipment provided by the companies were compared with the required protection factors and with the FUNDACENTRO`s respiratory protection program. The results showed that until 2005, some companies were providing inadequate protection, and after the change in crystalline silica exposure limit value in 2006, all the analyzed companies were providing inadequate respirators. This study suggests that there is an opportunity to create a web portal, where the selection process can be done by the companies with updated information.

A numerical study of flexural buckling of foliated rock slopes

The occurrence of foliated rock masses is common in mining environment. Methods employing continuum approximation in describing the deformation of such rock masses possess a clear advantage over methods where each rock layer and each inter-layer interface (joint) is explicitly modelled. In devising such a continuum model it is imperative that moment (couple) stresses and internal rotations associated with the bending of the rock layers be properly incorporated in the model formulation. Such an approach will lead to a Cosserat-type theory. In the present model, the behaviour of the intact rock layer is assumed to be linearly elastic and the joints are assumed to be elastic-perfectly plastic. Condition of slip at the interfaces are determined by a Mohr-Coulomb criterion with tension cut off at zero normal stress. The theory is valid for large deformations. The model is incorporated into the finite element program AFENA and validated against an analytical solution of elementary buckling problems of a layered medium under gravity loading. A design chart suitable for assessing the stability of slopes in foliated rock masses against flexural buckling failure has been developed. The design chart is easy to use and provides a quick estimate of critical loading factors for slopes in foliated rock masses. It is shown that the model based on Euler's buckling theory as proposed by Cavers (Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 1981; 14:87-104) substantially overestimates the critical heights for a vertical slope and underestimates the same for sub-vertical slopes. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Caracterização experimental e numérica do desempenho térmico de um edifício "gaioleiro": identificação de oportunidades de melhoria

O sector dos edifícios é responsável por uma percentagem significativa dos consumos de energia primária e de energia eléctrica em Portugal, associada principalmente ao conforto térmico dos seus ocupantes. A União Europeia pretende uma redução de 20%, até 2020, dos consumos de energia e consequentes emissões de CO2 através da melhoria da eficiência energética dos edifícios públicos e residenciais. Em Portugal, o Plano Nacional para a Eficiência Energética (PNAEE) tem por objectivo obter uma poupança anual de energia de pelo menos 1% até ao ano de 2016, tomando como base a média de consumos de energia final, registados entre 2001 e 2005. Neste contexto, os edifícios anteriores a 1990 (primeira versão do RCCTE) podem apresentar um potencial significativo de melhoria da sua eficiência energética com base na sua reabilitação. Os edifícios “Gaioleiros” (1880 – 1930) constituindo uma parte importante do património histórico da cidade de Lisboa, para os quais a informação sobre o seu desempenho térmico é limitada, considerou-se pertinente efectuar um estudo destinado à sua caracterização experimental e numérica, face à especificidade do comportamento térmico das suas paredes caracterizadas pela elevada espessura. No presente trabalho, apresenta-se a metodologia e os resultados experimentais da medição da resistência térmica das paredes e da medição das necessidades térmicas de aquecimento da habitação. Estes resultados experimentais foram utilizados na validação do modelo de simulação térmica da habitação, que posteriormente serviu para avaliar as suas necessidades térmicas de aquecimento (Nic) e de arrefecimento (Nvc), identificar oportunidades de melhoria e avaliar o respectivo potencial de reabilitação. Neste trabalho, como contributos para uma reabilitação sustentável, apresentam-se avaliações de oportunidades de melhoria com base em estratégias de reforço do isolamento térmico. Dos resultados obtidos concluiu-se que melhorando o isolamento térmico das paredes e vãos envidraçados é possível baixar consideravelmente os consumos de energia associados à habitação, cumprindo assim as exigências estabelecidas no RCCTE ao nível dos requisitos de qualidade térmica da envolvente e consumos energéticos para edifícios novos e grandes reabilitações.

A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

Comportamento das famílias em relação ao consumo de eletricidade: o caso dos Açores

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais