Variation in mortality rates in Australia: correlation with Indigenous status, remoteness and socio-economic deprivation

Background The aim of this study was to study ecological correlations between age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Australian statistical divisions and (1) the proportion of residents that self-identify as Indigenous, (2) remoteness, and (3) socio-economic deprivation. Methods All-cause mortality rates for 57 statistical divisions were calculated and directly standardized to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. The proportion of residents who self-identified as Indigenous was obtained from the 1996 Census. Remoteness was measured using ARIA (Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia) values. Socioeconomic deprivation was measured using SEIFA (Socio-Economic index for Australia) values from the ABS. Results Age-standardized all-cause mortality varies twofold from 5.7 to 11.3 per 1000 across Australian statistical divisions. Strongest correlation was between Indigenous status and mortality (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). correlation between remoteness and mortality was modest (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) as was correlation between socio-economic deprivation and mortality (r = -0.42, p = 0.001). Excluding the three divisions with the highest mortality, a multiple regression model using the logarithm of the adjusted mortality rate as the dependent variable showed that the partial correlation (and hence proportion of the variance explained) for Indigenous status was 0.03 (9 per cent; p = 0.03), for SEIFA score was -0.17 (3 per cent; p = 0.22); and for remoteness was -0.22 (5 per cent; p = 0.13). Collectively, the three variables studied explain 13 per cent of the variability in mortality. Conclusions Ecological correlation exists between all-cause mortality, Indigenous status, remoteness and disadvantage across Australia. The strongest correlation is with indigenous status, and correlation with all three characteristics is weak when the three statistical divisions with the highest mortality rates are excluded. intervention targeted at these three statistical divisions could reduce much of the variability in mortality in Australia.

Variation in cervical cancer screening by region, socio-economic, migrant and Indigenous status in women in New South Wales

The purpose of this study was to estimate the extent of association of cervical screening in NSW women with socio-economic status (SES), rurality, and proportions of non-English speaking background (NESB) and Indigenous status. Data on women who had at least one Pap test over two years (January 1998-December 1999) were obtained from the NSW Pap test Register. Each local government area (LGA) was allocated to categories of population proportions of NESB and Indigenous status, a rurality classification based on population density and remoteness, and to an SES quintile. The odds ratios (OR) of having a Pap test were estimated and confounding adjusted by multiple logistic regression analysis. Implied Pap test rates in urban NESB and in rural Indigenous women were estimated from the modelled estimates. The adjusted OR for a Pap test in large rural centres (1.14) was significantly higher than those for metropolitan or capital city residents (0.9 and 1.0 respectively). Adjusted OR for a Pap test in other rural centres (0.73) and other remote areas (0.64) were significantly lower than those for metropolitan or capital city residents. In urban populations the lowest OR were in areas with both low SES and high proportion of NESB. The lowest OR for Pap screening in rural populations occurred in the most remote areas with the highest proportion of Indigenous women. For urban NESB women the biennial Pap test rate was estimated as 50%, and for rural Indigenous women 29%, compared with the NSW average of 59%.

An economic evaluation of plasma production via erythroplasmapheresis and whole blood collection

This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones heated from below

We conduct a theoretical analysis to investigate the convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones when they are heated uniformly from below. In particular, we have derived exact analytical solutions for the critical Rayleigh numbers of different convective flow structures. Using these critical Rayleigh numbers, three interesting convective flow structures have been identified in a geological fault zone system. It has been recognized that the critical Rayleigh numbers of the system have a minimum value only for the fault zone of infinite length, in which the corresponding convective flow structure is a 2-D slender-circle flow. However, if the length of the fault zone is finite, the convective flow in the system must be 3-D. Even if the length of the fault zone is infinite, since the minimum critical Rayleigh number for the 2-D slender-circle flow structure is so close to that for the 3-D convective flow structure, the system may have almost the same chance to pick up the 3-D convective flow structures. Also, because the convection modes are so close for the 3-D convective flow structures, the convective flow may evolve into the 3-D finger-like structures, especially for the case of the fault thickness to height ratio approaching zero. This understanding demonstrates the beautiful aspects of the present analytical solution for the convective instability of 3-D geological fault zones, because the present analytical solution is valid for any value of the ratio of the fault height to thickness. Using the present analytical solution, the conditions, under which different convective flow structures may take place, can be easily determined.

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall`s law

This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-payments constrained growth by investigating how structural change identified with changes in the sectoral composition of exports and imports affects the external constraint We test both the original and a multisectoral version of Thirlwall`s law for a sample of Latin American and Asian countries The original Thirlwall s law is found to hold for all sample countries except South Korea, whereas the multisectoral analogue holds for all of them As the sectoral composition of exports and imports is found to matter for growth we analyze the evolution of each country`s weighted trade income elasticities

Import substitution and economic growth

Despite Latin America`s dismal performance between the 1950s and 1980s, the region experienced strong capital deepening. We suggest that these facts can be explained as a consequence of the restrictive trade regime adopted at that time. Our framework is based on a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model, with scale economies in the capital-intensive sector. Initially, the economy is open and produces only the labor-intensive good. The trade regime is modeled as a move to a closed economy. The model produces results consistent with the Latin American experience. Specifically, a Sufficiently small Country experiences no long-run income growth, but an increase in capital. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Petroleum royalties and regional development in Brazil: The economic growth of recipient towns

In 1997, Brazil approved law n(cr) 9478, establishing new rules for sharing petroleum royalties with Brazilian municipalities. The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether royalties distributed under the new law have contributed for the development of benefited municipalities. For that the difference-indifferences estimator (diff-in-diff) is used, which compares the evolution of the economic product into the municipality affected by the new law with the unaffected ones, by exploring the new legislation as an exogenous change. The data refer to the municipal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate before and after the event. Results are surprising, showing that royalty receivers grew less than municipalities that did not receive such resources. The difference is small but statistically significant. In general, an increase of one real in royalties per capita reduces the growth rate of the municipal product in 0.002 percentile points. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.