The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

El debate de la ampliación europea y los medios de comunicación publicitaria: un enfoque interdisciplinar

El objetivo central del estudio es tratar de averiguar si existen diferencias significativas entre los países miembros de la Unión Europea y los candidatos desde una perspectiva novedosa: los medios de comunicación y la publicidad. De esta forma, mediante el análisis descriptivo y el de conglomerados jerárquicos se comprueba la coherencia entre los resultados que se obtienen de este análisis y los requisitos para formar parte de la Unión. Los primeros análisis corroboran las evaluaciones efectuadas a los países candidatos y resoluciones de la Comisión. Todo ello conduce a motivar un debate sobre las implicaciones sociales y económicas, que no creativas ni éticas, del mercado publicitario y de medios en el contexto de la Unión Europea.

Estrategia de relaciones públicas en la comunicación de la epilepsia infanto-juvenil

La epilepsia es una enfermedad desconocida por el público en general, una enfermedad "invisible" para la sociedad, con implicaciones psicosociales, sociales, educativas, laborales y económicas que reducen la calidad de vida de los niñ@s y jóvenes con epilepsia, y la de sus familias. En su página web, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y sus asociados reconocen que la epilepsia es un importante problema de salud pública. La OMS, la Liga Internacional contra la Epilepsia y la Oficina Internacional para la Epilepsia están llevando a cabo una campaña mundial para mejorar la información y la sensibilización acerca de la epilepsia y fortalecer las medidas públicas y privadas para mejorar la atención y reducir el impacto de la enfermedad. Estudiar la comunicación de la epilepsia en niños y adolescentes y sus consecuencias entre los agentes que interactúan en su convivencia, es una cuestión necesaria para conocer y entender la dimensión que alcanza esta enfermedad. El trabajo que presentamos persigue introducirnos en las carencias y las limitaciones con las que las familias con hij@s epilépticos se encuentran para informar a la sociedad sobre la patología y adaptar los mensajes que satisfagan las necesidades de cada uno de los públicos afectados. El desarrollo de un grupo de discusión y la aplicación de la encuesta nos permite poner de manifiesto que, la información que se difunde sobre la epilepsia arrastra el todavía irremediable estigma social que atolla actitudes afirmativas en el entorno de la enfermedad infanto-juvenil”. La corroboración de la hipótesis nos lleva a proponer un programa de relaciones públicas cuya estrategia sea la visibilidad y la sensibilización de la enfermedad, como aportación principal del estudio.

The business of fashion in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries

Fashion is a complex social and cultural phenomenon with strong economic implications. Historical analysis reveals that the mechanisms of creating and spreading fashion have not remained constant, but have varied according to social structures, forms of producing and distributing apparel and social media, while the level of influence of fashion on society has increased in line with economic development. This special issue of Investigaciones de Historia Económica-Economic History Research is dedicated to fashion as an economic phenomenon in the contemporary period. The four articles which make it up show the plurality of the subject areas, sources and methodological approaches in the current research on this topic.

Sintomas obsessivos e compulsivos em utentes dos cuidados de saúde primários

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Toward international peace and security: Addressing the challenge of nuclear proliferation in a globalized world. ACES Working Papers, August 2010

With a growing number of threats to governance in the international system that result from globalization and technological innovation, it is no surprise that states have come to rely more heavily on each other and the global community for support. While the EU is partially constrained by the ultimate outcome of its own integration process, limited knowledge on this issue, and the national interests of its Member States, other governments are also experiencing difficulty in domestic implementation of international resolutions. To better understand the impact of the most recent sanctioning efforts, this paper will explore the development of the non-proliferation regime, examine implementation mechanisms of non-proliferation agreements, and analyze the impact of increased cooperation among states to thwart the spread of WMD technology and material. Case studies of unilateral measures undertaken by the US and EU against Iran will provide insight into the political and economic implications of economic sanctions from individual governments. New and emerging methods for limiting rogue states and non-state actors from acquiring the means to develop WMD will also be discussed in an effort to further discussion for future policy debates on this critical topic.

Consensus, contradiction, and conciliation of interests: the geo-economics of the Energy Union. EPC Policy Brief, 8 July 2015

European Union energy policy calls for nothing less than a profound transformation of the EU's energy system: by 2050 decarbonised electricity generation with 80-95% fewer greenhouse gas emissions, increased use of renewables, more energy efficiency, a functioning energy market and increased security of supply are to be achieved. Different EU policies (e.g., EU climate and energy package for 2020) are intended to create the political and regulatory framework for this transformation. The sectorial dynamics resulting from these EU policies already affect the systems of electricity generation, transportation and storage in Europe, and the more effective the implementation of new measures the more the structure of Europe's power system will change in the years to come. Recent initiatives such as the 2030 climate/energy package and the Energy Union are supposed to keep this dynamic up. Setting new EU targets, however, is not necessarily the same as meeting them. The impact of EU energy policy is likely to have considerable geo-economic implications for individual member states: with increasing market integration come new competitors; coal and gas power plants face new renewable challengers domestically and abroad; and diversification towards new suppliers will result in new trade routes, entry points and infrastructure. Where these implications are at odds with powerful national interests, any member state may point to Article 194, 2 of the Lisbon Treaty and argue that the EU's energy policy agenda interferes with its given right to determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, the choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply. The implementation of new policy initiatives therefore involves intense negotiations to conciliate contradicting interests, something that traditionally has been far from easy to achieve. In areas where this process runs into difficulties, the transfer of sovereignty to the European level is usually to be found amongst the suggested solutions. Pooling sovereignty on a new level, however, does not automatically result in a consensus, i.e., conciliate contradicting interests. Rather than focussing on the right level of decision making, European policy makers need to face the (inconvenient truth of) geo-economical frictions within the Union that make it difficult to come to an arrangement. The reminder of this text explains these latter, more structural and sector-related challenges for European energy policy in more detail, and develops some concrete steps towards a political and regulatory framework necessary to overcome them.

NÃO PODEIS SERVIR A DEUS E ÀS RIQUEZAS: OS IMPACTOS ECONÔMICOS NO EVANGELHO DE MATEUS NO CONTEXTO DO JUDAÍSMO DO I SÉCULO

Esta pesquisa propõe um estudo do Evangelho produzido pela comunidade de Mateus, mais especificamente, o trabalho consiste em demonstrar a possibilidade de leitura desse evangelho a partir de implicações econômicas no seio da comunidade que o produziu. Entendemos o Evangelho de Mateus como um dos diversos movimentos judaicos do período pós-destruição do templo em 70 d.C.. Por causa desse contexto percebemos que o Evangelho de Mateus, debate com uma realidade de disputas religiosas desse período. É importante frisar que essas questões possuem vertentes e não terminam no âmbito religioso. As disputas religiosas conseqüentemente têm relações com todas as dimensões da vida, entre elas a econômica. Mateus resignifica para seu grupo a questão das posses, das riquezas, em virtude de uma realidade de crise econômica. E em meio a essa crise o Evangelho de Mateus, a partir de um trabalho redacional, dá novos significados à vida de fé da comunidade à luz das histórias de Jesus recebidas das fontes Marcos e Lucas. Este estudo justifica-se pela lacuna existente no material produzido sobre o Evangelho de Mateus, uma vez que o que é produzido a respeito dessas narrativas quase sempre se preocupa em analisar o conflito entre a comunidade de Mateus e os Fariseus somente no campo religioso deixando de lado as demais possibilidades, entre elas as relações econômicas.(AU)

Solar PV-powered SRM drive for EVs with flexible energy control functions

Electric vehicles (EVs) provide a feasible solution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thus become a hot topic for research and development. Switched reluctance motors (SRMs) are one of promised motors for EV applications. In order to extend the EVs’ driving miles, the use of photovoltaic (PV) panels on the vehicle helps decrease the reliance on vehicle batteries. Based on phase winding characteristics of SRMs, a tri-port converter is proposed in this paper to control the energy flow between the PV panel, battery and SRM. Six operating modes are presented, four of which are developed for driving and two for standstill on-board charging. In the driving modes, the energy decoupling control for maximum power point tracking (MPPT) of the PV panel and speed control of the SRM are realized. In the standstill charging modes, a grid-connected charging topology is developed without a need for external hardware. When the PV panel directly charges the battery, a multi-section charging control strategy is used to optimize energy utilization. Simulation results based on Matlab/Simulink and experiments prove the effectiveness of the proposed tri-port converter, which has potential economic implications to improve the market acceptance of EVs.

Flexible fault-tolerant topology for switched reluctance motor drives

Switched reluctance motor (SRM) drives are one competitive technology for traction motor drives. This paper proposes a novel and flexible SRM fault-tolerant topology with fault diagnosis, fault tolerance, and advanced control functions. The converter is composed of a single-phase bridge and a relay network, based on the traditional asymmetrical half-bridge driving topology. When the SRM-driving system is subjected to fault conditions including open-circuit and short-circuit faults, the proposed converter starts its fault-diagnosis procedure to locate the fault. Based on the relay network, the faulty part can be bypassed by the single-phase bridge arm, while the single-phase bridge arm and the healthy part of the converter can form a fault-tolerant topology to sustain the driving operation. A fault-tolerant control strategy is developed to decrease the influence of the fault. Furthermore, the proposed fault-tolerant strategy can be applied to three-phase 12/8 SRM and four-phase 8/6 SRM. Simulation results in MATLAB/Simulink and experiments on a three-phase 12/8 SRM and a four-phase 8/6 SRM validate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy, which may have significant economic implications in traction drive systems.

Real-time temperature estimation for power MOSFETs considering thermal ageing effects

This paper presents a novel real-time power-device temperature estimation method that monitors the power MOSFET's junction temperature shift arising from thermal aging effects and incorporates the updated electrothermal models of power modules into digital controllers. Currently, the real-time estimator is emerging as an important tool for active control of device junction temperature as well as online health monitoring for power electronic systems, but its thermal model fails to address the device's ongoing degradation. Because of a mismatch of coefficients of thermal expansion between layers of power devices, repetitive thermal cycling will cause cracks, voids, and even delamination within the device components, particularly in the solder and thermal grease layers. Consequently, the thermal resistance of power devices will increase, making it possible to use thermal resistance (and junction temperature) as key indicators for condition monitoring and control purposes. In this paper, the predicted device temperature via threshold voltage measurements is compared with the real-time estimated ones, and the difference is attributed to the aging of the device. The thermal models in digital controllers are frequently updated to correct the shift caused by thermal aging effects. Experimental results on three power MOSFETs confirm that the proposed methodologies are effective to incorporate the thermal aging effects in the power-device temperature estimator with good accuracy. The developed adaptive technologies can be applied to other power devices such as IGBTs and SiC MOSFETs, and have significant economic implications.

New SR drive with integrated charging capacity for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) provide much promise in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and, thus, are a focal point of research and development. Existing on-board charging capacity is effective but requires the use of several power conversion devices and power converters, which reduce reliability and cost efficiency. This paper presents a novel three-phase switched reluctance (SR) motor drive with integrated charging functions (including internal combustion engine and grid charging). The electrical energy flow within the drivetrain is controlled by a power electronic converter with less power switching devices and magnetic devices. It allows the desired energy conversion between the engine generator, the battery, and the SR motor under different operation modes. Battery-charging techniques are developed to operate under both motor-driving mode and standstill-charging mode. During the magnetization mode, the machine's phase windings are energized by the dc-link voltage. The power converter and the machine phase windings are controlled with a three-phase relay to enable the use of the ac-dc rectifier. The power converter can work as a buck-boost-type or a buck-type dc-dc converter for charging the battery. Simulation results in MATLAB/Simulink and experiments on a 3-kW SR motor validate the effectiveness of the proposed technologies, which may have significant economic implications and improve the PHEVs' market acceptance.

Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

Volume averaging of multiphase flows with hydrate formation in subsea pipelines

In oil and gas pipeline operations, the gas, oil, and water phases simultaneously move through pipe systems. The mixture cools as it flows through subsea pipelines, and forms a hydrate formation region, where the hydrate crystals start to grow and may eventually block the pipeline. The potential of pipe blockage due to hydrate formation is one of the most significant flow-assurance problems in deep-water subsea operations. Due to the catastrophic safety and economic implications of hydrate blockage, it is important to accurately predict the simultaneous flow of gas, water, and hydrate particles in flowlines. Currently, there are few or no studies that account for the simultaneous effects of hydrate growth and heat transfer on flow characteristics within pipelines. This thesis presents new and more accurate predictive models of multiphase flows in undersea pipelines to describe the simultaneous flow of gas, water, and hydrate particles through a pipeline. A growth rate model for the hydrate phase is presented and then used in the development of a new three-phase model. The conservation equations of mass, momentum, and energy are formulated to describe the physical phenomena of momentum and heat transfer between the fluid and the wall. The governing equations are solved based on an analytical-numerical approach using a Newton-Raphson method for the nonlinear equations. An algorithm was developed in Matlab software to solve the equations from the inlet to the outlet of the pipeline. The developed models are validated against a single-phase model with mixture properties, and the results of comparative studies show close agreement. The new model predicts the volume fraction and velocity of each phase, as well as the mixture pressure and temperature profiles along the length of the pipeline. The results from the hydrate growth model reveal the growth rate and location where the initial hydrates start to form. Finally, to assess the impact of certain parameters on the flow characteristics, parametric studies have been conducted. The results show the effect of a variation in the pipe diameter, mass flow rate, inlet pressure, and inlet temperature on the flow characteristics and hydrate growth rates.

Water chemistry, carbonate system parameters, and macro-organism biomass of vent and off-vent sites in the Columbretes Islands Marine Reserve

Ocean acidification is receiving increasing attention because of its potential to affect marine ecosystems. Rare CO2 vents offer a unique opportunity to investigate the response of benthic ecosystems to acidification. However, the benthic habitats investigated so far are mainly found at very shallow water (less than or equal to 5 m depth) and therefore are not representative of the broad range of continental shelf habitats. Here, we show that a decrease from pH 8.1 to 7.9 observed in a CO2 vent system at 40 m depth leads to a dramatic shift in highly diverse and structurally complex habitats. Forests of the kelp Laminaria rodriguezii usually found at larger depths (greater than 65 m) replace the otherwise dominant habitats (i.e. coralligenous outcrops and rhodolith beds), which are mainly characterized by calcifying organisms. Only the aragonite-calcifying algae are able to survive in acidified waters, while high-magnesium-calcite organisms are almost completely absent. Although a long-term survey of the venting area would be necessary to fully understand the effects of the variability of pH and other carbonate parameters over the structure and functioning of the investigated mesophotic habitats, our results suggest that in addition of significant changes at species level, moderate ocean acidification may entail major shifts in the distribution and dominance of key benthic ecosystems at regional scale, which could have broad ecological and socio-economic implications.