Forecasting extinction risk of ectotherms under climate warming: an evolutionary perspective

1. It has been postulated that climate warming may pose the greatest threat species in the tropics, where ectotherms have evolved more thermal specialist physiologies. Although species could rapidly respond to environmental change through adaptation, little is known about the potential for thermal adaptation, especially in tropical species. 2. In the light of the limited empirical evidence available and predictions from mutation-selection theory, we might expect tropical ectotherms to have limited genetic variance to enable adaptation. However, as a consequence of thermodynamic constraints, we might expect this disadvantage to be at least partially offset by a fitness advantage, that is, the ‘hotter-is-better’ hypothesis. 3. Using an established quantitative genetics model and metabolic scaling relationships, we integrate the consequences of the opposing forces of thermal specialization and thermodynamic constraints on adaptive potential by evaluating extinction risk under climate warming. We conclude that the potential advantage of a higher maximal development rate can in theory more than offset the potential disadvantage of lower genetic variance associated with a thermal specialist strategy. 4. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk are fundamentally very sensitive to estimates of generation time and genetic variance. However, our qualitative conclusion that the relative risk of extinction is likely to be lower for tropical species than for temperate species is robust to assumptions regarding the effects of effective population size, mutation rate and birth rate per capita. 5. With a view to improving ecological forecasts, we use this modelling framework to review the sensitivity of our predictions to the model’s underpinning theoretical assumptions and the empirical basis of macroecological patterns that suggest thermal specialization and fitness increase towards the tropics. We conclude by suggesting priority areas for further empirical research.

An aggregate resource efficiency perspective on sustainability: a Sustainable Value application to the EU-15 countries

The Sustainable Value approach integrates the efficiency with regard to environmental, social and economic resources into a monetary indicator. It gained significant popularity as evidenced by diverse applications at the corporate level. However, its introduction as a measure adhering to the strong sustainability paradigm sparked an ardent debate. This study explores its validity as a macroeconomic strong sustainability measure by applying the Sustainable Value approach to the EU-15 countries. Concretely, we assessed environmental, social and economic resources in combination with the GDP for all EU-15 countries from 1995 to 2006 for three benchmark alternatives. The results show that several countries manage to adequately delink resource use from GDP growth. Furthermore, the remarkable difference in outcome between the national and EU-15 benchmark indicates a possible inefficiency of the current allocation of national resource ceilings imposed by the European institutions. Additionally, by using an effects model we argue that the service degree of the economy and governmental expenditures on social protection and research and development are important determinants of overall resource efficiency. Finally, we sketch out three necessary conditions to link the Sustainable Value approach to the strong sustainability paradigm.

Geotechnical systems that evolve with ecological processes

Geotechnical systems, such as landfills, mine tailings storage facilities (TSFs), slopes, and levees, are required to perform safely throughout their service life, which can span from decades for levees to “in perpetuity” for TSFs. The conventional design practice by geotechnical engineers for these systems utilizes the as-built material properties to predict its performance throughout the required service life. The implicit assumption in this design methodology is that the soil properties are stable through time. This is counter to long-term field observations of these systems, particularly where ecological processes such as plant, animal, biological, and geochemical activity are present. Plant roots can densify soil and/or increase hydraulic conductivity, burrowing animals can increase seepage, biological activity can strengthen soil, geochemical processes can increase stiffness, etc. The engineering soil properties naturally change as a stable ecological system is gradually established following initial construction, and these changes alter system performance. This paper presents an integrated perspective and new approach to this issue, considering ecological, geotechnical, and mining demands and constraints. A series of data sets and case histories are utilized to examine these issues and to propose a more integrated design approach, and consideration is given to future opportunities to manage engineered landscapes as ecological systems. We conclude that soil scientists and restoration ecologists must be engaged in initial project design and geotechnical engineers must be active in long-term management during the facility’s service life. For near-surface geotechnical structures in particular, this requires an interdisciplinary perspective and the embracing of soil as a living ecological system rather than an inert construction material.

Ecology an Australian perspective

This is the first ecological text that deals comprehensively with ecological principles and practice in an Australian context, with wholly Australian examples. There are four sections, dealing with the basics of climate soils and energy flows, major communities, the discipline itself, and major issues.

Ecological processes : a key element in strategies for nature conservation

A common approach to nature conservation is to identify and protect natural 'assets’ such as ecosystems and threatened species. While such actions are essential, protection of assets will not be effective unless the ecological processes that sustain them are maintained. Here, we consider the role of ecological processes and the complementary perspective for conservation arising from an emphasis on process. Many kinds of ecological processes sustain biodiversity: including climatic processes, primary productivity, hydrological processes, formation of biophysical habitats, interactions between species, movements of organisms and natural disturbance regimes. Anthropogenic threats to conservation exert their influence by modifying or disrupting these processes. Such threats extend across tenures, they frequently occur offsite, they commonly induce non-linear responses, changes may be irreversible and the full consequences may not be experienced for lengthy periods. While many managers acknowledge these considerations in principle, there is much scope for greater recognition of ecological processes in nature conservation and greater emphasis on long time-frames and large spatial scales in conservation planning. Practical measures that promote ecological processes include: monitoring to determine the trajectory and rate of processes; incorporating surrogates for processes in conservation and restoration projects; specific interventions to manipulate and restore processes; and planning for the ecological future before options are foreclosed. The long-term conservation of biodiversity and the wellbeing of human society depend upon both the protection of natural assets and maintaining the integrity of the ecological processes that sustain them.

Managing fire mosaics for small mammal conservation : a landscape perspective

1.Fire is a major driver of ecosystem structure and function worldwide. It is also widely used as a management tool to achieve conservation goals. A common objective is the maintenance of 'fire mosaics' comprising spatially heterogeneous patches of differing fire history. However, it is unclear what properties of fire mosaics most enhance conservation efforts. Here we focus on the spatial and temporal properties of fire-prone landscapes that influence the distribution of small mammals.

2.We surveyed small mammals in 28 landscapes (each 12·6km²) representing a range of fire histories in the Murray Mallee region (104 000km²) of semi-arid Australia. Generalised linear mixed models were used to examine the influence of five landscape properties on the capture rate of individual species and the species richness of native small mammals. We investigated the influence of the proportional extent of fire age-classes, the diversity of fire age-classes, the extent of the dominant vegetation type, rainfall history and biogeographic context.

3.Three of four study species were associated with the spatial extent of fire age-classes. Older vegetation was found to provide important habitat for native small mammals. Overall, however, rainfall history and biogeographic context were dominant influences: for example, the species richness of native mammals was positively associated with above-average rainfall. There was little evidence that the diversity of fire age-classes influenced either the capture rate of individual species or species richness.

4.Synthesis and applications. In fire-prone environments, habitat availability can change markedly over short time-scales. Sufficient habitat at a suitable seral stage within the landscape is a key requirement for species conservation. In mallee ecosystems, the retention of older vegetation is recommended to create more desirable fire mosaics for native small mammals. In addition to such spatial properties of mosaics that are amenable to manipulation, an understanding of how ecological processes affect the biota (such as variation in rainfall-driven productivity) is also essential for informed conservation management.

Indigenous climate change adaption in the Port Philip Bay region : a longitudinal investigation into the physical and cultural transformation of the bay from an indigenous and landscape architectural perspective

Currently there is a dearth of research into Australian Indigenous knowledge and their understanding of climate change especially in regard to how it fits into their world view. Recent discussions by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research facility (NCCARF) have highlighted this deficiency but also the need to source relevant research projects that may address this knowledge and perspective, and enable the incorporation of Traditional ecological Knowledge into the planning climate change adaptions strategies in the Port Phillip Bay region thereby increasing their engagement in this discussion. Within this context, this paper examines the use and understanding of landscape, both urban and regional, surrounding Port Phillip Bay and the risks and opportunities climate change adaptation brings to the local Indigenous communities. It synthesises focused interviews with the (Wurundjeri (Yarra Valley), Wathaurong Geelong-Bellarine Peninsular) & Boon Wurrung (Mornington Peninsula)) to elicit a contemporary and local response to issues raised by NCCARF but importantly to articulate a possible Indigenous position about the formation, change and direction that Port Phillip Bay and its environs should take from their perspectives. Research draws upon how these communities have adapted to climate change physically, mentally and spiritually over their long habitation of a shared geological asset and their perceptions of climate change in respect to forecasting and adapting to climate change for this century. The project looks to uncover a longitudinal perspective of change and adaptation focused upon Indigenous views of ‘country’ and traditional custodial obligations to ‘country’ including accumulated cultural and environmental histories.

Adaptation planning for coastal inundation and erosion at the local level : a knowledge systems perspective

Scientific projections for climate change induced sea level rise highlight the potential for serious consequences in low lying coastal areas, through impacts upon: built infrastructure; beneficial uses; and ecological values. An area of particular concern relates to the ways in which issues associated with land may be subject to future inundation and, or, erosion. Responding to such issues is complex and challenging, requiring consideration of multiple sources of evidence (with varying levels of certainty), diverse organisational settings and priorities, and multiple perspectives on what the evidence means. Further, limited attention has been directed towards exploring the knowledge dynamics associated with coastal adaption planning. In this paper we explore the knowledge dynamics associated with coastal adaption planning, in order to highlight the inter-organisational and inter-personal challenges involved. We do so by drawing on the views expressed in semi structured interviews by stakeholders with an interest in coastal climate change. The particular focus is on exploring how different actors perceive coastal adaption planning process, and the tensions, challenges, and implications associated with, and arising from, the way in which coastal adaptation knowledge is exchanged.

Indigenous landscape change and climate change : the historical transformation of the Port Phillip bay from an indigenous and landscape architectural perspective

Currently there is a dearth of research into Australian Indigenous knowledge and their understanding of climate change especially in regard to how it fits into an Indigenous world view. Recent discussions by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) have highlighted this deficiency and also the need to source projects that address this perspective, and enable the incorporation of traditional ecological knowledge into the planning of climate change adaption strategies. Within this context, this paper examines the use and understanding of landscape, both urban and regional, surrounding Port Phillip Bay and the risks and opportunities climate change adaptation brings to the local Indigenous communities. This paper comprises a literature review and proposes further research with the Wurundjeri (Yarra Valley), Wathaurong (Geelong-Bellarine Peninsula) & Boon Wurrung (Mornington Peninsula - Westerport - southern Melbourne) which aim to elicit a contemporary and local response to issues raised by NCCARF but importantly to articulate a possible Indigenous position about the formation, change and direction that Port Phillip Bay and its environs should take from their perspectives. The research looks to draw on how these communities have adapted to climate change physically, mentally and spiritually over their long habitation of the region and their perceptions of climate change this century. The project looks to uncover a longitudinal perspective of adaptation focused upon Indigenous views of 'country' and custodial obligations to 'country' including accumulated cultural and environmental histories, and how this can inform the contemporary practice of landscape architecture and the design of resilient and sustainable human environments.

Food security: one of a number of ‘securities’ we need for a full life: an Australian perspective

Although agriculture in Australia is very productive, the current food supply systems in Australia fail to deliver healthy diets to all Australians and fail to protect the natural resources on which they depend. The operation of the food systems creates ‘collateral damage’ to the natural environment including biodiversity loss. In coming decades, Australia’s food supply systems will be increasingly challenged by resource price inflation and climate change. Australia exports more than half of its current agricultural production. Government and business are aiming to substantially increase production to bolster exports. This will increase pressure on agricultural resources and exacerbate ‘collateral’ damage to the environment. The Australian public have a deep and ongoing interest in a very wide range of issues associated with the food systems including the environment, health and sustainability. Food is something we require in order to live and a good diet is something we have to have to be healthy. For health over a life-time we need food security. However, we also require a range of other material goods and social arrangements in order to develop and flourish as human beings. And we need these other things to be secure over a life-time. Food is therefore one security among a range of other securities we need in order to flourish. The paper outlines a number of approaches, as examples, that help to identify what these other goods and arrangements might be. The approaches mentioned in this paper include human rights, national securities, human needs, authentic happiness, capabilities, sustainability and environmental ethics. The different approaches provide a way of evaluating the current situation and indicating a direction for change within the food systems that will address the problems. However, changing large systems such as those involved in food supply is difficult because inertias and vested interests make the current food supply systems resilient to change. The paper suggests that one of the first and ongoing tasks is to develop an understanding of the situation from a comprehensive social–ecological systems perspective. The paper also suggests that a practical leverage point for system change is restructuring the flow of information on the health, natural resources and biodiversity loss issues related to the food supply systems.

Flying, fasting, and feeding in birds during migration: a nutritional and physiological ecology perspective

Unlike exercising mammals, migratory birds fuel very high intensity exercise (e.g., flight) with fatty acids delivered from the adipose tissue to the working muscles by the circulatory system. Given the primary importance of fatty acids for fueling intense exercise, we discuss the likely limiting steps in lipid transport and oxidation for exercising birds and the ecological factors that affect the quality and quantity of fat stored in wild birds. Most stored lipids in migratory birds are comprised of three fatty acids (16:0, 18:1 and 18:2) even though migratory birds have diverse food habits. Diet selection and selective metabolism of lipids play important roles in determining the fatty acid composition of birds which, in turn, affects energetic performance during intense exercise. As such, migratory birds offer an intriguing model for studying the implications of lipid metabolism and obesity on exercise performance. We conclude with a discussion of the energetic costs of migratory flight and stopover in birds, and its implications for bird migration strategies.

Biodiversity, Species Interactions and Ecological Networks in a Fragmented World

Biodiversity is organised into complex ecological networks of interacting species in local ecosystems, but our knowledge about the effects of habitat fragmentation on such systems remains limited. We consider the effects of this key driver of both local and global change on both mutualistic and antagonistic systems at different levels of biological organisation and spatiotemporal scales.There is a complex interplay of patterns and processes related to the variation and influence of spatial, temporal and biotic drivers in ecological networks. Species traits (e.g. body size, dispersal ability) play an important role in determining how networks respond to fragment size and isolation, edge shape and permeability, and the quality of the surrounding landscape matrix. Furthermore, the perception of spatial scale (e.g. environmental grain) and temporal effects (time lags, extinction debts) can differ markedly among species, network modules and trophic levels, highlighting the need to develop a more integrated perspective that considers not just nodes, but the structural role and strength of species interactions (e.g. as hubs, spatial couplers and determinants of connectance, nestedness and modularity) in response to habitat fragmentation.Many challenges remain for improving our understanding: the likely importance of specialisation, functional redundancy and trait matching has been largely overlooked. The potentially critical effects of apex consumers, abundant species and supergeneralists on network changes and evolutionary dynamics also need to be addressed in future research. Ultimately, spatial and ecological networks need to be combined to explore the effects of dispersal, colonisation, extinction and habitat fragmentation on network structure and coevolutionary dynamics. Finally, we need to embed network approaches more explicitly within applied ecology in general, because they offer great potential for improving on the current species-based or habitat-centric approaches to our management and conservation of biodiversity in the face of environmental change.

Latitudinal gradients in intraspecific ecological diversity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Methodological Difficulties of Conducting Agroecological Studies from a Statistical Perspective

Statistical methods for analyzing agroecological data might not be able to help agroecologists to solve all of the current problems concerning crop and animal husbandry, but such methods could well help them assess, tackle, and resolve several agroecological issues in a more reliable and accurate manner. Therefore, our goal in this article is to discuss the importance of statistical tools for alternative agronomic approaches, because alternative approaches, such as organic farming, should not only be promoted by encouraging farmers to deploy agroecological techniques, but also by providing agroecologists with robust analyses based on rigorous statistical procedures.