Brand formative design - development and assessment of product design from a future, brand and consumer perspective

With this dissertation research we investigate intersections between design and marketing and in this respect, which factors do contribute that a product design becomes brand formative. We have developed a Brand Formative Design (BFD) framework, which investigates individual design features in a holistic, comparable, brand relevant, and consumer specific context. We discuss what kinds of characteristics contribute to BFD but also illuminate how they should be applied and examine: rnA holistic framework leading to Brand Formative Design. Identification and assessment of BFD Drivers. The dissection of products into three Distinctive Design Levels. The detection of surprising design preferences. The appropriate degree of scheme deviation with evolutionary design. Simulated BFD development processes with three different products and the integration of consumers. Future oriented objectification, comparability and assessment of design. Recommendations for the management of design in a brand specific context. Design is a product feature, which contributes significantly to the success of products. However, the development of new design contains challenges. Design can hardly be objectified; many people have an opinion concerning the attractiveness of new products but cannot formulate their future preferences. Product design is widely developed based on intuition, which can be difficult for the management of design. Here the concept of Brand Formative Design can provide a framework which contributes to structure, objectify, develop and assess new evolutionary design in brand and future relevant contexts, but also integrates consumers and their preferences without restricting creativity too much.

Nepfix: on-demand cloud elastic simulation of networks of evolutionary processors

Una Red de Procesadores Evolutivos o NEP (por sus siglas en ingles), es un modelo computacional inspirado por el modelo evolutivo de las celulas, específicamente por las reglas de multiplicación de las mismas. Esta inspiración hace que el modelo sea una abstracción sintactica de la manipulation de information de las celulas. En particu¬lar, una NEP define una maquina de cómputo teorica capaz de resolver problemas NP completos de manera eficiente en tóerminos de tiempo. En la praóctica, se espera que las NEP simuladas en móaquinas computacionales convencionales puedan resolver prob¬lemas reales complejos (que requieran ser altamente escalables) a cambio de una alta complejidad espacial. En el modelo NEP, las cóelulas estóan representadas por palabras que codifican sus secuencias de ADN. Informalmente, en cualquier momento de cómputo del sistema, su estado evolutivo se describe como un coleccion de palabras, donde cada una de ellas representa una celula. Estos momentos fijos de evolucion se denominan configuraciones. De manera similar al modelo biologico, las palabras (celulas) mutan y se dividen en base a bio-operaciones sencillas, pero solo aquellas palabras aptas (como ocurre de forma parecida en proceso de selection natural) seran conservadas para la siguiente configuracióon. Una NEP como herramienta de computation, define una arquitectura paralela y distribuida de procesamiento simbolico, en otras palabras, una red de procesadores de lenguajes. Desde el momento en que el modelo fue propuesto a la comunidad científica en el año 2001, múltiples variantes se han desarrollado y sus propiedades respecto a la completitud computacional, eficiencia y universalidad han sido ampliamente estudiadas y demostradas. En la actualidad, por tanto, podemos considerar que el modelo teórico NEP se encuentra en el estadio de la madurez. La motivación principal de este Proyecto de Fin de Grado, es proponer una aproxi-mación práctica que permita dar un salto del modelo teórico NEP a una implantación real que permita su ejecucion en plataformas computacionales de alto rendimiento, con el fin de solucionar problemas complejos que demanda la sociedad actual. Hasta el momento, las herramientas desarrolladas para la simulation del modelo NEP, si bien correctas y con resultados satisfactorios, normalmente estón atadas a su entorno de ejecucion, ya sea el uso de hardware específico o implementaciones particulares de un problema. En este contexto, el propósito fundamental de este trabajo es el desarrollo de Nepfix, una herramienta generica y extensible para la ejecucion de cualquier algo¬ritmo de un modelo NEP (o alguna de sus variantes), ya sea de forma local, como una aplicación tradicional, o distribuida utilizando los servicios de la nube. Nepfix es una aplicacion software desarrollada durante 7 meses y que actualmente se encuentra en su segunda iteration, una vez abandonada la fase de prototipo. Nepfix ha sido disenada como una aplicacion modular escrita en Java 8 y autocontenida, es decir, no requiere de un entorno de ejecucion específico (cualquier maquina virtual de Java es un contenedor vólido). Nepfix contiene dos componentes o móodulos. El primer móodulo corresponde a la ejecución de una NEP y es por lo tanto, el simulador. Para su desarrollo, se ha tenido en cuenta el estado actual del modelo, es decir, las definiciones de los procesadores y filtros mas comunes que conforman la familia del modelo NEP. Adicionalmente, este componente ofrece flexibilidad en la ejecucion, pudiendo ampliar las capacidades del simulador sin modificar Nepfix, usando para ello un lenguaje de scripting. Dentro del desarrollo de este componente, tambióen se ha definido un estóandar de representacióon del modelo NEP basado en el formato JSON y se propone una forma de representation y codificación de las palabras, necesaria para la comunicación entre servidores. Adicional-mente, una característica importante de este componente, es que se puede considerar una aplicacion aislada y por tanto, la estrategia de distribution y ejecución son total-mente independientes. El segundo moódulo, corresponde a la distribucióon de Nepfix en la nube. Este de-sarrollo es el resultado de un proceso de i+D, que tiene una componente científica considerable. Vale la pena resaltar el desarrollo de este modulo no solo por los resul-tados prócticos esperados, sino por el proceso de investigation que se se debe abordar con esta nueva perspectiva para la ejecución de sistemas de computación natural. La principal característica de las aplicaciones que se ejecutan en la nube es que son gestionadas por la plataforma y normalmente se encapsulan en un contenedor. En el caso de Nepfix, este contenedor es una aplicacion Spring que utiliza el protocolo HTTP o AMQP para comunicarse con el resto de instancias. Como valor añadido, Nepfix aborda dos perspectivas de implementation distintas (que han sido desarrolladas en dos iteraciones diferentes) del modelo de distribution y ejecucion, que tienen un impacto muy significativo en las capacidades y restricciones del simulador. En concreto, la primera iteration utiliza un modelo de ejecucion asincrono. En esta perspectiva asincrona, los componentes de la red NEP (procesadores y filtros) son considerados como elementos reactivos a la necesidad de procesar una palabra. Esta implementation es una optimization de una topologia comun en el modelo NEP que permite utilizar herramientas de la nube para lograr un escalado transparente (en lo ref¬erente al balance de carga entre procesadores) pero produce efectos no deseados como indeterminacion en el orden de los resultados o imposibilidad de distribuir eficiente-mente redes fuertemente interconectadas. Por otro lado, la segunda iteration corresponde al modelo de ejecucion sincrono. Los elementos de una red NEP siguen un ciclo inicio-computo-sincronizacion hasta que el problema se ha resuelto. Esta perspectiva sincrona representa fielmente al modelo teórico NEP pero el proceso de sincronizacion es costoso y requiere de infraestructura adicional. En concreto, se requiere un servidor de colas de mensajes RabbitMQ. Sin embargo, en esta perspectiva los beneficios para problemas suficientemente grandes superan a los inconvenientes, ya que la distribuciín es inmediata (no hay restricciones), aunque el proceso de escalado no es trivial. En definitiva, el concepto de Nepfix como marco computacional se puede considerar satisfactorio: la tecnología es viable y los primeros resultados confirman que las carac-terísticas que se buscaban originalmente se han conseguido. Muchos frentes quedan abiertos para futuras investigaciones. En este documento se proponen algunas aproxi-maciones a la solucion de los problemas identificados como la recuperacion de errores y la division dinamica de una NEP en diferentes subdominios. Por otra parte, otros prob-lemas, lejos del alcance de este proyecto, quedan abiertos a un futuro desarrollo como por ejemplo, la estandarización de la representación de las palabras y optimizaciones en la ejecucion del modelo síncrono. Finalmente, algunos resultados preliminares de este Proyecto de Fin de Grado han sido presentados recientemente en formato de artículo científico en la "International Work-Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (IWANN)-2015" y publicados en "Ad-vances in Computational Intelligence" volumen 9094 de "Lecture Notes in Computer Science" de Springer International Publishing. Lo anterior, es una confirmation de que este trabajo mas que un Proyecto de Fin de Grado, es solo el inicio de un trabajo que puede tener mayor repercusion en la comunidad científica. Abstract Network of Evolutionary Processors -NEP is a computational model inspired by the evolution of cell populations, which might model some properties of evolving cell communities at the syntactical level. NEP defines theoretical computing devices able to solve NP complete problems in an efficient manner. In this model, cells are represented by words which encode their DNA sequences. Informally, at any moment of time, the evolutionary system is described by a collection of words, where each word represents one cell. Cells belong to species and their community evolves according to mutations and division which are defined by operations on words. Only those cells are accepted as surviving (correct) ones which are represented by a word in a given set of words, called the genotype space of the species. This feature is analogous with the natural process of evolution. Formally, NEP is based on an architecture for parallel and distributed processing, in other words, a network of language processors. Since the date when NEP was pro¬posed, several extensions and variants have appeared engendering a new set of models named Networks of Bio-inspired Processors (NBP). During this time, several works have proved the computational power of NBP. Specifically, their efficiency, universality, and computational completeness have been thoroughly investigated. Therefore, we can say that the NEP model has reached its maturity. The main motivation for this End of Grade project (EOG project in short) is to propose a practical approximation that allows to close the gap between theoretical NEP model and a practical implementation in high performing computational platforms in order to solve some of high the high complexity problems society requires today. Up until now tools developed to simulate NEPs, while correct and successful, are usu¬ally tightly coupled to the execution environment, using specific software frameworks (Hadoop) or direct hardware usage (GPUs). Within this context the main purpose of this work is the development of Nepfix, a generic and extensible tool that aims to execute algorithms based on NEP model and compatible variants in a local way, similar to a traditional application or in a distributed cloud environment. Nepfix as an application was developed during a 7 month cycle and is undergoing its second iteration once the prototype period was abandoned. Nepfix is designed as a modular self-contained application written in Java 8, that is, no additional external dependencies are required and it does not rely on an specific execution environment, any JVM is a valid container. Nepfix is made of two components or modules. The first module corresponds to the NEP execution and therefore simulation. During the development the current state of the theoretical model was used as a reference including most common filters and processors. Additionally extensibility is provided by the use of Python as a scripting language to run custom logic. Along with the simulation a definition language for NEP has been defined based on JSON as well as a mechanisms to represent words and their possible manipulations. NEP simulator is isolated from distribution and as mentioned before different applications that include it as a dependency are possible, the distribution of NEPs is an example of this. The second module corresponds to executing Nepfix in the cloud. The development carried a heavy R&D process since this front was not explored by other research groups until now. It's important to point out that the development of this module is not focused on results at this point in time, instead we focus on feasibility and discovery of this new perspective to execute natural computing systems and NEPs specifically. The main properties of cloud applications is that they are managed by the platform and are encapsulated in a container. For Nepfix a Spring application becomes the container and the HTTP or AMQP protocols are used for communication with the rest of the instances. Different execution perspectives were studied, namely asynchronous and synchronous models were developed for solving different kind of problems using NEPs. Different limitations and restrictions manifest in both models and are explored in detail in the respective chapters. In conclusion we can consider that Nepfix as a computational framework is suc-cessful: Cloud technology is ready for the challenge and the first results reassure that the properties Nepfix project pursued were met. Many investigation branches are left open for future investigations. In this EOG implementation guidelines are proposed for some of them like error recovery or dynamic NEP splitting. On the other hand other interesting problems that were not in the scope of this project were identified during development like word representation standardization or NEP model optimizations. As a confirmation that the results of this work can be useful to the scientific com-munity a preliminary version of this project was published in The International Work- Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (IWANN) in May 2015. Development has not stopped since that point and while Nepfix in it's current state can not be consid¬ered a final product the most relevant ideas, possible problems and solutions that were produced during the seven months development cycle are worthy to be gathered and presented giving a meaning to this EOG work.

Phylogenetic relationships between the Acantharea and the Polycystinea: A molecular perspective on Haeckel’s Radiolaria

Polycystine radiolaria are among few protistan groups that possess a comprehensive fossil record available for study by micropaleontologists. The Polycystinea and the Acantharea, whose skeletons do not become fossilized, were once members of the class “Radiolaria” (“Radiolaria” sensu lato: Polycystinea, Phaeodarea, and Acantharea) originally proposed by Haeckel but are now included in the superclass Actinopoda. Phylogenetic relationships within this superclass remain largely enigmatic. We investigated the evolutionary relationship of the Acantharea and the Polycystinea to other protists using phylogenetic analyses of 16S-like ribosomal RNA (rRNA) coding regions. We circumvented the need to culture these organisms by collecting and maintaining reproductive stages that contain many copies of their genomic DNA. This strategy facilitated extraction of genomic DNA and its purification from symbiont and prey DNA. Phylogenetic trees inferred from comparisons of 16S-like coding regions do not support a shared history between the Acantharea and the Polycystinea. However, the monophyly of the Acantharea and the separate monophyly of the Polycystinea (Spumellarida) are well supported by our molecular-based trees. The acantharian lineage branches among crown organisms whereas the polycystine lineage diverges before the radiation of the crown groups. We conclude that the Actinopoda does not represent a monophyletic evolutionary assemblage and recommend that this taxonomic designation be discarded.

A phylogenetic perspective on P transposable element evolution in Drosophila

The P element, originally described in Drosophila melanogaster, is one of the best-studied eukaryotic transposable elements. In an attempt to understand the evolutionary dynamics of the P element family, an extensive phylogenetic analysis of 239 partial P element sequences has been completed. These sequences were obtained from 40 species in the Drosophila subgenus Sophophora. The phylogeny of the P element family is examined in the context of a phylogeny of the species in which these elements are found. An interesting feature of many of the species examined is the coexistence in the same genome of P sequences belonging to two or more divergent subfamilies. In general, P elements in Drosophila have been transmitted vertically from generation to generation over evolutionary time. However, four unequivocal cases of horizontal transfer, in which the element was transferred between species, have been identified. In addition, the P element phylogeny is best explained in numerous instances by horizontal transfer at various times in the past. These observations suggest that, as with some other transposable elements, horizontal transfer may play an important role in the maintenance of P elements in natural populations.

A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary change

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response.

A multilocus perspective on refugial isolation and divergence in rainforest skinks (Carlia)

To explore the evolutionary consequences of climate-induced fluctuations in distribution of rainforest habitat we contrasted demographic histories of divergence among three lineages of Australian rainforest endemic skinks. The red-throated rainbow skink, Carlia rubrigularis, consists of morphologically indistinguishable northern and southern mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages that are partially reproductively isolated at their parapatric boundary. The third lineage (C. rhomboidalis) inhabits rainforests just to the south of C. rubrigularis, has blue, rather than red-throated males, and for mtDNA is more closely related to southern C. rubrigularis than is northern C. rubrigularis. Multigene coalescent analyses supported more recent divergence between morphologically distinct lineages than between morphologically conservative lineages. There was effectively no migration and therefore stronger isolation between southern C. rubrigularis and C. rhomboidalis, and low unidirectional migration between morphologically conservative lineages of C. rubrigularis. We found little or no evidence for strong differences in effective population size, and hence different contributions of genetic drift in the demographic history of the three lineages. Overall the results suggest contrasting responses to long-term fluctuations in rainforest habitats, leading to varying opportunities for speciation.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The co-evolutionary dynamics of IS engagement

In this paper we consider the co-evolutionary dynamics of IS engagement where episodic change of implementation increasingly occurs within the context of linkages and interdependencies between systems and processes within and across organisations. Although there are many theories that interpret the various motors of change be it lifecycle, teleological, dialectic or evolutionary, our paper attempts to move towards a unifying view of change by studying co-evolutionary dynamics from a complex systems perspective. To understand how systems and organisations co-evolve in practice and how order emerges, or fails to emerge, we adopt complex adaptive systems theory to incorporate evolutionary and teleological motors, and actor-network theory to incorporate dialectic motors. We illustrate this through the analysis of the implementation of a novel academic scheduling system at a large research-intensive Australian university.

The embodied nature of spatial perspective taking:embodied transformation versus sensorimotor interference

Humans are able to mentally adopt the spatial perspective of others and understand the world from their point of view. We propose that spatial perspective taking (SPT) could have developed from the physical alignment of perspectives. This would support the notion that others have put forward claiming that SPT is an embodied cognitive process. We investigated this issue by contrasting several accounts in terms of the assumed processes and the nature of the embodiment. In a series of four experiments we found substantial evidence that the transformations during SPT comprise large parts of the body schema, which we did not observe for object rotation. We further conclude that the embodiment of SPT is best conceptualised as the self-initiated emulation of a body movement, supporting the notion of endogenous motoric embodiment. Overall our results are much more in agreement with an ‘embodied’ transformation account than with the notion of sensorimotor interference. Finally we discuss our findings in terms of SPT as a possible evolutionary stepping stone towards more complex alignments of socio-cognitive perspectives.

A diversity dilemma in evolutionary markets

Markets are useful mechanisms for performing resource al- location in fully decentralised computational and other systems, since they can possess a range of desirable properties, such as efficiency, decentralisation, robustness and scalability. In this paper we investigate the behaviour of co-evolving evolutionary market agents as adaptive offer generators for sellers in a multi-attribute posted-offer market. We demonstrate that the evolutionary approach enables sellers to automatically position themselves in market niches, created by heterogeneous buyers. We find that a trade-off exists for the evolutionary sellers between maintaining high population diversity to facilitate movement between niches and low diversity to exploit the current niche and maximise cumulative payoff. We characterise the trade-off from the perspective of the system as a whole, and subsequently from that of an individual seller. Our results highlight a decision on risk aversion for resource providers, but crucially we show that rational self-interested sellers would not adopt the behaviour likely to lead to the ideal result from the system point of view.

A statistical physics perspective on alignment-independent protein sequence comparison.

Motivation: Within bioinformatics, the textual alignment of amino acid sequences has long dominated the determination of similarity between proteins, with all that implies for shared structure, function, and evolutionary descent. Despite the relative success of modern-day sequence alignment algorithms, so-called alignment-free approaches offer a complementary means of determining and expressing similarity, with potential benefits in certain key applications, such as regression analysis of protein structure-function studies, where alignment-base similarity has performed poorly. Results: Here, we offer a fresh, statistical physics-based perspective focusing on the question of alignment-free comparison, in the process adapting results from “first passage probability distribution” to summarize statistics of ensemble averaged amino acid propensity values. In this paper, we introduce and elaborate this approach.

Genetic algorithms and investment strategies: A global perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: (1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, (2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, (3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and (4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

History and evolutionary trajectory of the Iranian nuclear program

What actors and processes at what levels of analysis and through what mechanisms have pushed Iran's nuclear program (INP) towards being designated as a proliferation threat (securitization)? What actors and processes at what levels of analysis and through what mechanisms have pushed Iran's nuclear program away from being designated as an existential threat (de-securitization)? What has been the overall balance of power and interaction dynamics of these opposing forces over the last half-century and what is their most likely future trajectory? ^ Iran's nuclear story can be told as the unfolding of constant interaction between state and non-state forces of "nuclear securitization" and "nuclear de-securitization." Tracking the crisscrossing interaction between these different securitizing and de-securitizing actors in a historical context constitutes the central task of this project. ^ A careful tracing of "security events" on different analytical levels reveals the broad contours of the evolutionary trajectory of INP and its possible future path(s). Out of this theoretically conscious historical narrative, one can make informed observations about the overall thrust of INP along the securitization - de-securitization continuum. ^ The main contributions of this work are three fold: First, it brings a fresh theoretical perspective on Iran's proliferation behavior by utilizing the "securitization" theory tracing the initial indications of the threat designation of INP all the way back to the mid 1970s. Second, it gives a solid and thematically grounded historical texture to INP by providing an intimate engagement with the persons, processes, and events of Tehran's nuclear pursuit over half a century. Third, it demonstrates how INP has interacted with and even at times transformed the NPT as the keystone of the non-proliferation regime, and how it has affected and injected urgency to the international discourse on nuclear proliferation specifically in the Middle East.^

Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.