An observational study of conflicts between cyclists and pedestrians in the city centre

City centres have large volumes of pedestrians and motorised traffic and increases in walking and cycling could potentially lead to more pedestrians and cyclists being injured. In this study, observers recorded cyclist characteristics, number of pedestrians within 1m and 5m radius and type of conflict (none, pedestrian, vehicle) for 1,971 cyclists in 2010 and 2,551 cyclists in 2012 at six locations in the Brisbane Central Business District. Only 1.7% of cyclists were involved in conflicts with a motor vehicle or pedestrian and no collisions were observed. Increased odds of a pedestrian-cyclist conflict was associated with: male riders, riders not wearing correctly fastened helmets, riding on the footpath, higher pedestrian density (within 1m but not within 5m), morning peak and 2-4 pm (compared with 4-6 pm), two-way roads, roads with more lanes, higher speed limits, and yellow marked bicycle symbols on the road.

Not drowning, (hand)waving? Molecular phylogenetics, biogeography and evolutionary tempo of the ‘Gondwanan’ midge Stictocladius Edwards (Diptera: Chironomidae)

Many insect clades, especially within the Diptera (true flies), have been considered classically ‘Gondwanan’, with an inference that distributions derive from vicariance of the southern continents. Assessing the role that vicariance has played in the evolution of austral taxa requires testing the location and tempo of diversification and speciation against the well-established predictions of fragmentation of the ancient super-continent. Several early (anecdotal) hypotheses that current austral distributions originate from the breakup of Gondwana derive from studies of taxa within the family Chironomidae (non-biting midges). With the advent of molecular phylogenetics and biogeographic analytical software, these studies have been revisited and expanded to test such conclusions better. Here we studied the midge genus Stictocladius Edwards, from the subfamily Orthocladiinae, which contains austral-distributed clades that match vicariance-based expectations. We resolve several issues of systematic relationships among morphological species and reveal cryptic diversity within many taxa. Time-calibrated phylogenetic relationships among taxa accorded partially with the predicted tempo from geology. For these apparently vagile insects, vicariance-dated patterns persist for South America and Australia. However, as often found, divergence time estimates for New Zealand at c. 50 mya post-date separation of Zealandia from Antarctica and the remainder of Gondwana, but predate the proposed Oligocene ‘drowning’ of these islands. We detail other such ‘anomalous’ dates and suggest a single common explanation rather than stochastic processes. This could involve synchronous establishment following recovery from ‘drowning’ and/or deleteriously warming associated with the mid-Eocene climatic optimum (hence ‘waving’, which refers to cycles of drowning events) plus new availability of topography providing of cool running waters, or all these factors in combination. Alternatively a vicariance explanation remains available, given the uncertain duration of connectivity of Zealandia to Australia–Antarctic–South America via the Lord Howe and Norfolk ridges into the Eocene.

Selection procedures for module discovery : exploring evolutionary algorithms for cognitive science

Evolutionary algorithms are playing an increasingly important role as search methods in cognitive science domains. In this study, methodological issues in the use of evolutionary algorithms were investigated via simulations in which procedures were systematically varied to modify the selection pressures on populations of evolving agents. Traditional roulette wheel, tournament, and variations of these selection algorithms were compared on the “needle-in-a-haystack” problem developed by Hinton and Nowlan in their 1987 study of the Baldwin effect. The task is an important one for cognitive science, as it demonstrates the power of learning as a local search technique in smoothing a fitness landscape that lacks gradient information. One aspect that has continued to foster interest in the problem is the observation of residual learning ability in simulated populations even after long periods of time. Effective evolutionary algorithms balance their search effort between broad exploration of the search space and in-depth exploitation of promising solutions already found. Issues discussed include the differential effects of rank and proportional selection, the tradeoff between migration of populations towards good solutions and maintenance of diversity, and the development of measures that illustrate how each selection algorithm affects the search process over generations. We show that both roulette wheel and tournament algorithms can be modified to appropriately balance search between exploration and exploitation, and effectively eliminate residual learning in this problem.

Resolving the conflicts of sustainable world heritage landscapes in cities : fully open or limited access for visitors?

World Heritage Landscapes (WHLs) are receiving increased attention from researchers, urban planners, managers, and policy makers and many heritage values and resources are becoming irreversibly lost. This phenomenon is especially prominent for WHLs located in cities, where greater development opportunities are involved. Decision making for sustainable urban landscape planning, conservation and management of WHLs often takes place from an economic perspective, especially in developing countries. This, together with the uncertain source of funding to cover WHL operating and maintenance costs, has resulted in many urban managers seeking private sector funding either in the form of visitor access fees or leasing part of the site for high-rental facilities such as five star hotels, clubs and expensive restaurants. For the former, this can result in low-income urban citizens being unable to afford the access fees and hence contradicting the principle of equal access for all; while, for the latter, the principle of open access for all is equally violated. To resolve this conflict, a game model is developed to determine how urban managers should allocate WHL spaces to maximize the combination of economic, social and ecological benefits and cultural values. A case study is provided of the Hangzhou's West Lake Scenic Area, a WHL located at the centre of Hangzhou city, in which several high-rental facilities have recently been closed down by the local authorities due to charges of elitism and misuse of public funds by government officials. The result shows that the best solution is to lease a small space with high rents and leave the remainder of the site to the public. This solution is likely to be applicable only in cities with a strong economy.

Numerical investigation of upstream fuel injection through porous media for scramjet engines via surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms

A multi-objective design optimization study has been conducted for upstream fuel injection through porous media applied to the first ramp of a two-dimensional scramjet intake. The optimization has been performed by coupling evolutionary algorithms assisted by surrogate modeling and computational fluid dynamics with respect to three design criteria, that is, the maximization of the absolute mixing quantity, total pressure saving, and fuel penetration. A distinct Pareto optimal front has been obtained, highlighting the counteracting behavior of the total pressure against the mixing efficiency and fuel penetration. The injector location and size have been identified as the key design parameters as a result of a sensitivity analysis, with negligible influence of the porous properties in the configurations and conditions considered in the present study. Flowfield visualization has revealed the underlying physics associated with the effects of these dominant parameters on the shock structure and intensity.

The land hoarding and land inspector dilemma in China : an evolutionary game theoretic perspective

China has experienced considerable economic growth since 1978, which was accompanied by unprecedented growth in urbanization and, more recently, by associated rising urban housing and land banking issues. One such issue is that of land hoarding - where real estate developers purchase land to hold unused in the rising market for a future lucrative sale, often several years later. This practice is outlawed in China, where land use is controlled by increasingly strengthened Government policies and inspectors. Despite this, land hoarding continues apace, with the main culprits being the developers and inspectors working subversively. This resembles a game between two players - the inspector and the developer - which provides the setting for this paper in developing an evolutionary game theory model to provide insights into dealing with the dilemmas faced by the players. The logic and dilemma of land banking strategy and illegal land banking issues are analysed, along with the land inspector’s role from a game theory perspective by determining the replication dynamic mechanism and evolutionary stable strategies under the various conditions that the players face. The major factors influencing the actions of land inspectors, on the other hand, are the costs of inspection, no matter if it is strict or indolent, conflict costs, and income and penalties from corruption. From this, it is shown that, when the net loss for corruption (income from corruption minus the penalties for corruption and cost of strict inspections) is less than the cost of strict inspections, the final evolutionary stable strategy of the inspectors is to carry out indolent inspections. Then, whether penalising developers for hoarding is severe or not, the evolutionary strategy for the developer is to hoard. The implications for land use control mechanisms and associated developer-inspector actions and counteractions are then examined in the light of the model's properties.

Evolutionary game design : automated game design comes of age

The "Humies" awards are an annual competition held in conjunction with the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO), in which cash prizes totalling $10,000 are awarded to the most human-competitive results produced by any form of evolutionary computation published in the previous year. This article describes the gold medal-winning entry from the 2012 "Humies" competition, based on the LUDI system for playing, evaluating and creating new board games. LUDI was able to demonstrate human-competitive results in evolving novel board games that have gone on to be commercially published, one of which, Yavalath, has been ranked in the top 2.5% of abstract board games ever invented. Further evidence of human-competitiveness was demonstrated in the evolved games implicitly capturing several principles of good game design, outperforming human designers in at least one case, and going on to inspire a new sub-genre of games.

Evolutionary optimization and game strategies for advanced multi-disciplinary design : applications to aeronautics and UAV design

Many complex aeronautical design problems can be formulated with efficient multi-objective evolutionary optimization methods and game strategies. This book describes the role of advanced innovative evolution tools in the solution, or the set of solutions of single or multi disciplinary optimization. These tools use the concept of multi-population, asynchronous parallelization and hierarchical topology which allows different models including precise, intermediate and approximate models with each node belonging to the different hierarchical layer handled by a different Evolutionary Algorithm. The efficiency of evolutionary algorithms for both single and multi-objective optimization problems are significantly improved by the coupling of EAs with games and in particular by a new dynamic methodology named “Hybridized Nash-Pareto games”. Multi objective Optimization techniques and robust design problems taking into account uncertainties are introduced and explained in detail. Several applications dealing with civil aircraft and UAV, UCAV systems are implemented numerically and discussed. Applications of increasing optimization complexity are presented as well as two hands-on test cases problems. These examples focus on aeronautical applications and will be useful to the practitioner in the laboratory or in industrial design environments. The evolutionary methods coupled with games presented in this volume can be applied to other areas including surface and marine transport, structures, biomedical engineering, renewable energy and environmental problems.

Role Ambiguity and conflicts: A study of company secretaries and two-tier boards in the Netherlands

Recent research suggests that company secretaries are increasingly involved in governance responsibilities in addition to traditional administrative tasks. Little is known in the literature, however, about company secretaries' changing governance role, and their daily challenges in liaising with boards and other stakeholders. In addition, few studies have been able to gain access to learn firsthand how company secretaries operate. This exploratory study fills this void by gaining access to the opinions of about one hundred company secretaries in the Netherlands who operate in the two-tier board system. Our findings indicate that company secretaries significantly influence an organisation's governance framework, while they face a number of practical challenges with directors, employees and management in fulfilling their diverse roles and responsibilities.

Determining reverse salient types and evolutionary dynamics of technology systems with performance disparities

Technological system evolution is marked by the uneven evolution of constituent sub-systems. Subsequently, system evolution is hampered by the resulting state of unevenness, or reverse salience, which results from the presence of the sub-system that delivers the lowest level of performance with respect to other sub-systems, namely, the reverse salient. In this paper, we develop absolute and proportional performance gap measures of reverse salience and, in turn, derive a typology of reverse salients that distinguishes alternative dynamics of change in the evolving system. We subsequently demonstrate the applicability of the measures and the typology through an illustrative empirical study of the PC (personal computer) technological system that functions as a gaming platform. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that patterns of temporal dynamics can be distinguished with the measurement of reverse salience, and that distinct paths of technological system evolution can be identified as different types of reverse salients emerge over time.

The evolutionary history of termites as inferred from 66 mitochondrial genomes

Termites have colonized many habitats and are among the most abundant animals in tropical ecosystems, which they modify considerably through their actions. The timing of their rise in abundance and of the dispersal events that gave rise to modern termite lineages is not well understood. To shed light on termite origins and diversification, we sequenced the mitochondrial genome of 48 termite species and combined them with 18 previously sequenced termite mitochondrial genomes for phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses using multiple fossil calibrations. The 66 genomes represent most major clades of termites. Unlike previous phylogenetic studies based on fewer molecular data, our phylogenetic tree is fully resolved for the lower termites. The phylogenetic positions of Macrotermitinae and Apicotermitinae are also resolved as the basal groups in the higher termites, but in the crown termitid groups, including Termitinae + Syntermitinae + Nasutitermitinae + Cubitermitinae, the position of some nodes remains uncertain. Our molecular clock tree indicates that the lineages leading to termites and Cryptocercus roaches diverged 170 Ma (153-196 Ma 95% confidence interval [CI]), that modern Termitidae arose 54 Ma (46-66 Ma 95% CI), and that the crown termitid group arose 40 Ma (35-49 Ma 95% CI). This indicates that the distribution of basal termite clades was influenced by the final stages of the breakup of Pangaea. Our inference of ancestral geographic ranges shows that the Termitidae, which includes more than 75% of extant termite species, most likely originated in Africa or Asia, and acquired their pantropical distribution after a series of dispersal and subsequent diversification events.

A Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm for live migration of multiple interdependent virtual machines in data centers

Although live VM migration has been intensively studied, the problem of live migration of multiple interdependent VMs has hardly been investigated. The most important problem in the live migration of multiple interdependent VMs is how to schedule VM migrations as the schedule will directly affect the total migration time and the total downtime of those VMs. Aiming at minimizing both the total migration time and the total downtime simultaneously, this paper presents a Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) for the multi-VM migration scheduling problem. The SPEA2 has been evaluated by experiments, and the experimental results show that the SPEA2 can generate a set of VM migration schedules with a shorter total migration time and a shorter total downtime than an existing genetic algorithm, namely Random Key Genetic Algorithm (RKGA). This paper also studies the scalability of the SPEA2.

Evolutionary games with two timescales

We consider a two timescale model of learning by economic agents wherein active or 'ontogenetic' learning by individuals takes place on a fast scale and passive or 'phylogenetic' learning by society as a whole on a slow scale, each affecting the evolution of the other. The former is modelled by the Monte Carlo dynamics of physics, while the latter is modelled by the replicator dynamics of evolutionary biology. Various qualitative aspects of the dynamics are studied in some simple cases, both analytically and numerically, and its role as a useful modelling device is emphasized.