The Challenges of the EU Banking Union - will it succeed in dealing with the next financial crisis? Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefings 36/2015

The EU Banking Union combines micro- and macro-prudential regulation. It aims at breaking the “doom loop” between banks and sovereign debt, promoting financial stability and mitigating the next financial shock to the real EU economy, at the lowest possible cost to the financial institutions and to the taxpayers. Success, or failure, is determined by how the banking union copes with the challenges to its two main pillars, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). Under the SSM, in its new supervisory role, the ECB may be subject to conflicts between the objectives of price and financial stability, and the single-supervisor role may be sub-optimal. Two regulators might have been preferable and more focus on ECB accountability will now be required. The shock-absorbing Single Resolution Fund (SRF), which is part of the SRM, may not have the capacity to deal with a crisis of the size of the one of 2008. Especially as the nature and severity of a future financial crisis cannot be forecasted. The design of the banking union is not the result of theoretical studies, but a political compromise to deal with an acute crisis. The theoretical studies that are included in this paper are not supportive of the banking union in its current form. Nevertheless, there is a good chance that the EU Banking Union may succeed, as ECB supervision of the 123 systemically important banks should contain potential demands on the SRM. In the event of a crisis that is too severe for the banking union to absorb with its current capability, the crucial assumption is that there is political will to rapidly provide new resources. The same applies, if a major financial crisis develops before the banking union is fully operational.

The ECB’s Latest Gimmick. Cash for loans, CEPS Policy Brief No. 341, March 2016

Among several important monetary policy initiatives decided by the European Central Bank on 10 March 2016 was the launch of a new set of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), expanding on the previous TLTRO. In assessing this scheme, which might cost up to €24 billion, this Policy Brief finds that while it could become important, it is questionable whether it will achieve its goal of encouraging the extension of credit for new investment, as banks can easily window dress their loan book.

Is there a need for additional monetary stimulus? Insights from the original Taylor Rule. CEPS Policy Brief No. 342, April 2016

Central banks in the developed world are being misled into fighting the perceived dangers of a ‘deflationary spiral’ because they are looking at only one indicator: consumer prices. This Policy Brief finds that while consumer prices are flat, broader price indices do not show any sign of impending deflation: the GDP deflator is increasing in the US, Japan and the euro area by about 1.2-1.5%. Nor is the real economy sending any deflationary signals either: unemployment is at record lows in the US and Japan, and is declining in the euro area while GDP growth is at, or above potential. Thus, the overall macroeconomic situation does not give any indication of an imminent deflationary spiral. In today’s high-debt environment, the authors argue that central banks should be looking at the GDP deflator and the growth of nominal GDP, instead of CPI inflation. Nominal GDP growth, as forecasted by the major official institutions, remains robust and is in excess of nominal interest rates. They conclude that if the ECB were to set the interest rate according to the standard rules of thumb for monetary policy, which take into account both the real economy and price developments of broader price indicators, it would start normalising its policy now, instead of pondering over additional measures to fight deflation, which does not exist. In short, economic conditions are slowly normalising; so should monetary policy.

Information Guide: European Central Bank

A guide to information sources on the European Central Bank (ECB), with hyperlinks to further sources of information within European Sources Online and on external websites.

The effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s Asset Purchase Programme. Bruegel Policy Contribution issue 2016 10 June 2016

Since the end of 2014, inflation has been at or very close to zero. With very little ability to move the actual interest rate further into negative territory, the ECB has resorted to unconventional measures. The latest of these includes a programme to purchase corporate bonds, which started on 8 June 2016.

National training course, emergency medical technician - paramedic. Instructor's lesson plans. Module XII: pediatrics and neonatal.

Mode of access: Internet.

Local police enforcement, public information and education strategies to foster more and proper use of child safety seats by toddlers: evaluation of demonstration project. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Translation practices at the European Central Bank with reference to metaphors

The European Union institutions represent a complex setting and a specific case of institutional translation. The European Central Bank (ECB) is a particular context as the documents translated belong to the field of economics and, thus, contain many specialised terms and neologisms that pose challenges to translators. This study aims to investigate the translation practices at the ECB, and to analyse their effects on the translated texts. In order to illustrate the way texts are translated at the ECB, the thesis will focus on metaphorical expressions and the conceptual metaphors by which they are sanctioned. Metaphor is often associated with literature and less with specialised texts. However, according to Lakoff and Johnson’s (1980) conceptual metaphor theory, our conceptual system is fundamentally metaphorical in nature and metaphors are pervasive elements of thought and speech. The corpus compiled comprises economic documents translated at the ECB, mainly from English into Romanian. Using corpus analysis, the most salient metaphorical expressions were identified in the source and target texts and explained with reference to the main conceptual metaphors. Translation strategies are discussed on the basis of a comparison of the source and target texts. The text-based analysis is complemented by questionnaires distributed to translators, which give insights into the institution’s translation practices. As translation is an institutional process, translators have to follow certain guidelines and practices; these are discussed with reference to translators’ agency. A gap was identified in the field of institutional translation. The translation process in the EU institutions has been insufficiently explored, especially regarding the new languages of the European Union. By combining the analysis of the institutional practices, the texts produced in the institution and the translators’ work (by the questionnaires distributed to translators), this thesis intends to bring a contribution to institutional translation and metaphor translation, particularly regarding a new EU language, Romanian.

Plaintext Recovery in DES-like Cryptosystems Based on S-boxes with Embedded Parity Check

We describe an approach for recovering the plaintext in block ciphers having a design structure similar to the Data Encryption Standard but with improperly constructed S-boxes. The experiments with a backtracking search algorithm performing this kind of attack against modified DES/Triple-DES in ECB mode show that the unknown plaintext can be recovered with a small amount of uncertainty and this algorithm is highly efficient both in time and memory costs for plaintext sources with relatively low entropy. Our investigations demonstrate once again that modifications resulting to S-boxes which still satisfy some design criteria may lead to very weak ciphers. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): E.3, I.2.7, I.2.8.

Monetáris hatásosság közösségi szinten (The community level efficiency of monetary policy)

A monetáris integráció központi szereplője a Közösség jegybankja. A közös valuta értékállóságának közvetlenül fő meghatározója a jegybank. Mozgásterét azonban több tényező alakítja. E tanulmány az intézményi és stratégiai, a tagállami (decentralizált fiskális) és a pénzpiaci környezet függvényében vizsgálja az Európai Központi Bank (ECB) lehetőségeit és monetáris politikájának hatásosságát. / === / The efficiency of the European Economic and Monetary Union is a big dilemma of European applied economics. The first part introduces the monetary policy made by ECB. Rates and objectives are the framework of efficiency analysis. The second part details the common pool resource problem in the community of EMU countries, and describes the prisoner's dilemma of indebting in a currency community. The EMU practice shows free riding behavior of many member states what generally causes higher default risks. The increasing indebtedness shows dysfunction too, as the ECB must adjust the interest rate to the higher default risk which means cost premiums for fiscally disciplined countries as well. The third part analyses the efficiency of the ECB through the standards of monetary transmission. The updated criteria can explain any success or failure of the ECB in a not perfectly homogeneous community. The measures of transmission used in the study are the way of financing (banks vs. market), terms of financing, structure of the banking sector, private sector indebtedness, structure of savings and wealth, price elasticity, interest rate elasticity, wage elasticity. They show that the single monetary policy can create tension in the community not only because of the fiscal differences but also due to money market discrepancies.

Monetary efficacy in the community level

Hypothesis of the paper is that the monetary room for manoeuvre in the European Community is determined by the institutional and strategic characteristics of the ECB, moreover the financial market environment composed by multi-state community. The methodology of the paper is built on the evaluation of the decision making and strategy of ECB as institutional aspect, and the monetary transmission in national financial markets. In policy evaluation, the monetary targeting is surveyed through HICP, monetary base, central bank rates, exchange rates and treatment of price impacts. The transmission is examined through analysis of structure of the member state’s financial markets.

A jelzálogpiaci válság és a Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív nagybankok részvényárfolyama (The impact of the subprime crisis on the banks being active in Central and Eastern Europe)

Tanulmányunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a jelzálogpiaci válsághoz köthető hírek milyen hatással vannak a Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív nagybankokra. A vizsgálathoz tíz Közép-Kelet-Európában aktív, tőzsdei nagybankot választottunk ki, amelyek közül hat nyugat-európai, míg négy közép-kelet-európai székhelyű bank volt. A tíz pénzintézettel kapcsolatosan 128 hírt gyűjtöttünk össze a 2007. június 1. és 2009. december 31. közötti időszakból. A híreket öt kategóriába csoportosítottuk, és az egyes kategóriáknak a részvényárfolyamokra gyakorolt, rövid távú hatását külön vizsgáltuk. Számításaink alapján a jelzálogpiaci válság során a befektetők pozitívan fogadták az állami feltőkésítéssel kapcsolatos bejelentéseket és a kielégítő védelmet nyújtó, átfogó kormányzati bankmentő csomagokat. A veszteségekkel, a leminősítéssel és az ECB intézkedéseivel kapcsolatos hírek esetén rövid távon nem tudtunk szignifikáns hatást kimutatni. A kutatás során a hírek számosságában igen, de a hírek által kiváltott hatás nagyságrendjében nem észleltünk jelentős különbséget a nyugat-európai és a középkelet- európai bankok között. ______ The research measures the impact of the subprime crisis on the shareholders of the banks being active in Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis focuses on the ten largest banks of the region measured by the asset size. The authors address the question whether the crisis affected more signifi cantly the large banks headquartered in Western Europe or the banks domiciled in Central and Eastern Europe. With the aim of capturing the short-term impact of various news on the shareholders of the banks, the popular event-study methodology with a one-day event window is employed. Within the period of 1 June 2007 and 31 December 2009, altogether 128 news were collected and grouped into fi ve categories (downgrades, loss, capital strengthening, governmental rescue packages, interventions of the ECB). Among others, the authors found empirical evidence that the shareholders appreciated the interventions of the governments: their capital injections resulted in signifi cant positive abnormal returns. Governmental rescue packages also resulted in signifi cant abnormal returns in the share price, however, the sign of the returns was unambiguous. No empirical evidence was found that in the short run the news in connection with loss announcements, downgrades and ECB interventions resulted in signifi cant abnormal returns. We concluded that although Western European banks and banks domiciled in Central and Eastern Europe differed in the number of news announced, the crisis affected the banks in both regions in a similar manner.

Válságkezelés Európában: új gazdaságfilozófia felé? (Towards a New Philosophy of Crisis Management in Europe?)

Az évek óta tartó európai válságkezelés leírása és a részletek bemutatása helyett a rögtönzött, politikai alapon hozott lépések gazdaságelméleti értelmezésére törekszünk. Kutatási alapkérdésünk a következő: igaz-e még a 70-es évek végének felismerése, ami szerint sem szerkezeti, sem szabályozási eredetű válságot nem lehet keresletélénkítéssel leküzdeni? Igaz-e, hogy a szuverén EU-tagállamokon belül bármi okból hiányzó belső elköteleződést nem lehet pótolni a külső fegyelmezéssel? Ennek fényében vizsgáljuk a költségvetési és a bankunió 2012 októberében körvonalazott és jóváhagyott tervezetét is. _____ This paper attempts to provide a theoretical interpretation of new policy initiatives in the EU culminating in the launching of a fiscal and banking union in June, 2012. This step is reinforced by the new ECB strategy launched in September 2012. These measures were a result of a series of policy improvisations rather than of any secret master plan, still they add up to a new model of European integration. Our research question is if, and to what degrees the insights from the crisis of the 1970s hold. Accordingly no amount of easy money may remedy ills deriving from regulatory and structural inefficiencies. Second, we contend that no amount of external straightjacket/disciplining may replace domestic commitment of national governments in implementing structural reforms rather than fiscal adjustments on the margin.

A központi bankok társadalmi felelőssége (Social responsibility of central banks)

A szerzők tanulmányukban bemutatják a vállalati gyakorlatból ismert vállalati társadalmi felelősségvállalás (CSR) koncepció lehetséges központi banki értelmezését, kitérve a központi bankok gazdasági, jogi, etikai és filantróp (jótékonysági) felelősségére. Megközelítésüket az amerikai (FED), az európai (EKB) és a magyar (MNB) központi bank gyakorlatán keresztül mutatják be. Dolgozatuk alapgondolata, hogy egy valóban felelős intézmény minden rendelkezésére álló eszközzel a társadalmi jólétet segíti elő, ahogy a társadalom tagjai vonatkozásában Adam Smith megfogalmazta bő kétszáz évvel ezelőtt. ____ This paper studies a possible interpretation of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) known from business translated to the sphere of central banks, including the central banks’ economic, legal, ethical, and philanthropic (charity) responsibilities. The authors’ approach is presented through practices of the American (FED), the European (ECB), and the Hungarian (MNB) Central Banks. The main idea in this paper is that a responsible organisation uses all means possible to improve social wealth, as stated by Adam Smith in relevance to the members of the society over two hundred years ago.

The effectiveness of an enhanced congnitive behavioral intervention in improving behavioral outcomes related to HIV prevention

This study analyzed outcomes of an enhanced cognitive-behavioral intervention with dually diagnosed severely mentally ill adults. It specifically addressed the improvement of attitudes, skills, self-efficacy to use condoms and the heightening of condom use. The data were analyzed via a randomized three-group repeated measures design composed of the experimental (E-CB), standard care (SC) comparison or a no-treatment control condition as the between-subjects variable and pre-post measure as the within-subjects variable. The ECB focused on cooperative, application, hands-on, skill-building and role-playing activities for sexual assertiveness, negotiation in risk-taking and proper condom use. The SC comparison, was didactic in its approach and addressed risk- taking and proper condom use in one session, but did not involve application approaches to problem-solving risky situations or condom use. Multiple assessments were conducted at pre-, post- and six months post-intervention. The analysis indicated that the E-CB intervention led to more favorable attitudes toward condoms and to improved and maintained skills regarding their use by participants six months after the intervention compared to the standard care and control groups. No significant improvements in self-efficacy were found. A repeated measures ANOVA conducted on the transformed values of percentage of vaginal condom use indicated no significant differences between the experimental and standard care conditions but both had a significantly higher mean percentage vaginal condom use than the control group, averaged across pre- and six-month post-intervention. No gender differences were seen in attitudes, skills or self-efficacy to use condoms. This study shed light upon the effectiveness of the instructional approach for the enhancement of attitudes, skills and self-efficacy outcomes related to HIV prevention. For heightened effectiveness, future approaches must address multiple factors impacting learning in this population.