Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Influence of multi-scale landscape structure on the occurrence of carnivorous mammals in a human-modified savanna, Brazil

So Paulo is the most developed state in Brazil and contains few fragments of native ecosystems, generally surrounded by intensive agriculture lands. Despite this, some areas still shelter large native animals. We aimed at understanding how medium and large carnivores use a mosaic landscape of forest/savanna and agroecosystems, and how the species respond to different landscape parameters (percentage of landcover and edge density), in a multi-scale perspective. The response variables were: species richness, carnivore frequency and frequency for the three most recorded species (Puma concolor, Chrysocyon brachyurus and Leopardus pardalis). We compared 11 competing models using Akaike`s information criterion (AIC) and assessed model support using weight of AIC. Concurrent models were combinations of landcover types (native vegetation, ""cerrado"" formations, ""cerrado"" and eucalypt plantation), landscape feature (percentage of landcover and edge density) and spatial scale. Herein, spatial scale refers to the radius around a sampling point defining a circular landscape. The scales analyzed were 250 (fine), 1,000 (medium) and 2,000 m (coarse). The shape of curves for response variables (linear, exponential and power) was also assessed. Our results indicate that species with high mobility, P. concolor and C. brachyurus, were best explained by edge density of the native vegetation at a coarse scale (2,000 m). The relationship between P. concolor and C. brachyurus frequency had a negative power-shaped response to explanatory variables. This general trend was also observed for species richness and carnivore frequency. Species richness and P. concolor frequency were also well explained by a second concurrent model: edge density of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. A different response was recorded for L. pardalis, as the frequency was best explained for the amount of cerrado at the fine (250 m) scale. The curve of response was linearly positive. The contrasting results (P. concolor and C. brachyurus vs L. pardalis) may be due to the much higher mobility of the two first species, in comparison with the third. Still, L. pardalis requires habitat with higher quality when compared with other two species. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales when evaluating species responses to different habitats. An important and new finding was the prevalence of edge density over the habitat extension to explain overall carnivore distribution, a key information for planning and management of protected areas.

Dating coeval mafic magmatism and ultrahigh temperature metamorphism in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, Central Brazil

Dating granulites has always been of great interest because they represent one of the most extreme settings of an orogen. Owing to the resilience of zircon, even in such severe environments, the link between P-T conditions and geological time is possible. However, a challenge to geochronologists is to define whether the growth of new zircon is related to pre- or post-P-T peak conditions and which processes might affect the (re) crystallization. In this context, the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, a high-grade complex in central Brazil with ultrahigh temperature (UHT) granulites, may provide valuable information within this topic. The Anapolis-Itaucu Complex (AIC) includes ortho- and paragranulites, locally presenting UHT mineral assemblages, with igneous zircon ages varying between 760 and 650 Ma and metamorphic overgrowths dated at around 650-640 Ma. Also common in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex are layered mafic-ultramafic complexes metamorphosed under high-grade conditions. This article presents the first geological and geochronological constraints of three of these layered complexes within the AIC, the Damolandia, Taquaral and Goianira-Trindade complexes. U-Pb (LA-MC-ICPMS, SHRIMP and ID-TIMS) zircon analyses reveal a spread of concordant ages spanning within an age interval of similar to 80 Ma with an ""upper"" intercept age of similar to 670 Ma. Under cathodoluminescence imaging, these crystals show partially preserved primary sector zoning, as well as internal textures typical of alteration during high-grade metamorphism, such as inward-moving boundaries. Zircon grains reveal homogeneous initial (176)Hf/(177)Hf values in distinct crystal-scale domains in all samples. Moreover. Hf isotopic ratios show correlation neither with U-Pb ages nor with Th/U ratios, suggesting that zircon grains crystallized during a single growth event. It is suggested, therefore, that the observed spread of concordant U-Pb ages may be related to a memory effect due to coupled dissolution-reprecipitation process during high grade metamorphism. Therefore, understanding the emplacement and metamorphism of this voluminous mafic magmatism is crucial as it may represent an additional heat source for the development of the ultrahigh temperature paragenesis recorded in the paragranulites. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PREDICTION OF METAL CATION TOXICITY TO THE BIOLUMINESCENT FUNGUS GERRONEMA VIRIDILUCENS

A correlation between the physicochemical properties of mono- [Li(I), K(I), Na(I)] and divalent [Cd(II), Cu(II), Mn(II), Ni(II), Co(II), Zn(II), Mg(II), Ca(II)] metal cations and their toxicity (evaluated by the free ion median effective concentration. EC50(F)) to the naturally bioluminescent fungus Gerronema viridilucens has been studied using the quantitative ion character activity relationship (QICAR) approach. Among the 11 ionic parameters used in the current study, a univariate model based on the covalent index (X(m)(2)r) proved to be the most adequate for prediction of fungal metal toxicity evaluated by the logarithm of free ion median effective concentration (log EC50(F)): log EC50(F) = 4.243 (+/-0.243) -1.268 (+/-0.125).X(m)(2)r (adj-R(2) = 0.9113, Alkaike information criterion [AIC] = 60.42). Additional two- and three-variable models were also tested and proved less suitable to fit the experimental data. These results indicate that covalent bonding is a good indicator of metal inherent toxicity to bioluminescent fungi. Furthermore, the toxicity of additional metal ions [Ag(I), Cs(I), Sr(II), Ba(II), Fe(II), Hg(II), and Pb(II)] to G. viridilucens was predicted, and Pb was found to be the most toxic metal to this bioluminescent fungus (EC50(F)): Pb(II) > Ag(I) > Hg(I) > Cd(II) > Cu(II) > Co(II) Ni(II) > Mn(II) > Fe(II) approximate to Zn(II) > Mg(II) approximate to Ba(II) approximate to Cs(I) > Li(I) > K(I) approximate to Na(I) approximate to Sr(II)> Ca(II). Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2010;29:2177-2181. (C) 2010 SETAC

An Analysis of the Telecommunications Business in China by Linear Regression

In this paper, we study the influence of the National Telecom Business Volume by the data in 2008 that have been published in China Statistical Yearbook of Statistics. We illustrate the procedure of modeling “National Telecom Business Volume” on the following eight variables, GDP, Consumption Levels, Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods Total Renovation Investment, the Local Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Phone End Users, and the Local Telephone End Users. The testing of heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity for model evaluation is included. We also consider AIC and BIC criterion to select independent variables, and conclude the result of the factors which are the optimal regression model for the amount of telecommunications business and the relation between independent variables and dependent variable. Based on the final results, we propose several recommendations about how to improve telecommunication services and promote the economic development.

Current trends in the rehabilitation of juvenile offenders

The Australian Institute of Criminology's recent work on adult male offenders has found that the most serious and persistent adult offenders had been detained as a juvenile. In terms of crime reduction, interventions that focus on reducing the likelihood of juveniles escalating to adult offenders will have significant benefits for the whole of the Australian community. Research conducted in juvenile justice settings around the world consistently shows that young people who come to the attention of criminal justice agencies have multiple problems and experience high levels of need across all areas of functioning. In meeting these needs, correctional agencies have been increasingly influenced by the model of rehabilitation known as the 'what works' approach. This paper outlines a case management framework for rehabilitating juvenile offenders that includes three of the most important 'what works' principles, namely the risk principle, the needs principle and the responsivity principle. In the longer term, the implementation of the framework will need to be evaluated to determine what works and what doesn't with rehabilitating juveniles.

Selection of working correlation structure and best model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data

The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) method is one of the most commonly used statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data in epidemiological studies. A working correlation structure for the repeated measures of the outcome variable of a subject needs to be specified by this method. However, statistical criteria for selecting the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables in GEE are only available recently because the GEE method is developed on the basis of quasi-likelihood theory. Maximum likelihood based model selection methods, such as the widely used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), are not applicable to GEE directly. Pan (2001) proposed a selection method called QIC which can be used to select the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables. Based on the QIC method, we developed a computing program to calculate the QIC value for a range of different distributions, link functions and correlation structures. This program was written in Stata software. In this article, we introduce this program and demonstrate how to use it to select the most parsimonious model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data through several representative examples.

Youth (in)justice : oral language competence in early life and risk for engagement in antisocial behaviour in adolescence

Youth offenders are complex and challenging for policymakers and practitioners alike and face high risks for long-term disadvantage and social marginalisation. In many cases, this marginalisation from the mainstream begins in early life, particularly in the classroom, where they have difficulty both with language/literacy tasks and with the interpersonal demands of the classroom. Underlying both sets of skills is oral language competence—the ability to use and understand spoken language in a range of situations and social exchanges, in order to successfully negotiate the business of everyday life. This paper highlights an emerging field of research that focuses specifically on the oral language skills of high-risk young people. It presents evidence from Australia and overseas that demonstrates that high proportions (some 50% in Australian studies) of young offenders have a clinically significant, but previously undetected, oral language disorder. The evidence presented in this paper raises important questions about how young offenders engage in forensic interviews, whether as suspects, victims or witnesses. The delivery of highly verbally mediated interventions such as counselling and restorative justice conferencing is also considered in the light of emerging international evidence on this topic.